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  #61  
Old Posted Sep 16, 2020, 1:04 PM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
There is still plenty of educated/skilled people who are desperate to move to the US though.
Aside all anti-immigration mood, I guess the size of the US the main obstacle. While in Canada 200,000 do the trick, in the US it would be 2,000,000/year. There is not that many educated/skilled available willing to move to the US every year.

And needless to mention many middle-income countries are quite good on retaining those kind of people. Brazil, for instance, comes to mind.
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  #62  
Old Posted Sep 16, 2020, 1:55 PM
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But that's just it. The developed world, for the most part, doesn't want desperate people. The number of young, well educated/skilled people looking to emigrate is finite and those people are increasingly looking elsewhere. In order to plug the oncoming demographic hole, the US will likely need to bring in those 'desperate' people. Other smaller countries (Australia, NZ, Canada, Sweden, etc) facing the same demographic challenges will have an easier time mitigating low TFR with the type of migrants they want.
I don't disagree that the sheer number of skilled people interested in moving from developing countries to developed countries is destined to shrink, but I still think that's some ways off in time.

At this point there are still more qualified people who want to move to "the West" than "the West" is prepared to let in. And this definitely includes the U.S. BTW.

And regarding the U.S. and its allegedly "tainted" image relative to other countries, it's a common perception in certain circles (often as a political point or strategy) but I am not sure that really pans out very much in reality.

Even through the most turbulent episodes of its history the U.S. has always been a migration magnet for millions of people around the world.

For example even when the U.S. had a highly conflictual relationship with post-revolutionary Iran, with propaganda there labelling the U.S. as the Great Satan and the stars and stripes routinely burned in the streets, tens of thousands of Iranians were still immigrating to the U.S.

It may seem odd to some, but an "anti-immigrant U.S." is still a highly alluring place to immigrate to for millions of people around the world.
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  #63  
Old Posted Sep 16, 2020, 2:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
I don't disagree that the sheer number of skilled people interested in moving from developing countries to developed countries is destined to shrink, but I still think that's some ways off in time.

To add to this, it should also be noted that just because a country becomes wealthier doesn't necessarily mean people no longer want to emigrate either. And in many cases it may even have the opposite effect, as greater wealth in a developing country may enable more people to have the ability to leave.

Eg. 3 of Canada's top 10 immigration sources are from other developed nations (US, UK, and France).
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  #64  
Old Posted Sep 16, 2020, 3:06 PM
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To add to this, it should also be noted that just because a country becomes wealthier doesn't necessarily mean people no longer want to emigrate either. And in many cases it may even have the opposite effect, as greater wealth in a developing country may enable more people to have the ability to leave.

Eg. 3 of Canada's top 10 immigration sources are from other developed nations (US, UK, and France).
This is an excellent point.

Even if conditions are improving in developing countries, there can be a fairly long transitional period where a country is producing more and more skilled, educated individuals but the type of societal climate (robust institutions, personal safety, a heightened level of "organization", opportunities and environment for their kids) isn't yet in place to the level that those kinds of people would normally expect.

This is 100% what is driving the migration of *choice* immigrants from francophone sub-Saharan Africa to Quebec these days.
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  #65  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:16 AM
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Why do you say that?
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
There is still plenty of educated/skilled people who are desperate to move to the US though.
In order to mitigate low TFR, countries with relatively small populations like Canada don't need to attract as many immigrants as countries with huge populations like the US. The US has 9 times Canada's population and would need to attract roughly 9 times as many immigrants (assuming TFR in both nations is similar) to accomplish the same thing. That's a tough ask. In reality, net migration is nowhere near that 9 to 1 ratio. Canada, shockingly, had net migration numbers only slightly below the US in 2018-2019.

Throughout history, the vast majority of migrants heading to northern America went to the US. For the first time in history, Canada is grabbing a large chunk of those migrants. Unthinkable just a few years ago, but Canada could potentially record a higher number than the US in the near term.


Net International Migration 2018 - 2019

Canada: +436,689
United States: +595,348


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...st-nation.html
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  #66  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:26 AM
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Cherry picking immigrants like Canada does is not conceivable for 300 million, 500 million people countries/continents. Needless to mention, those polls of immigrants will be producing smaller surpluses of people as they will be also facing their own demographic issues.

Moreover, many middle-income regions are not prone to migration. While Mexico & Central America is a reliable source for immigration to the US, South America with its 420 million inh., for example, send very few and they're shared between the US and W. Europe.
I remember reading an article a few years back that showed Mexico received more people from the US than went the other way. Counting on Mexico for migrants might be a thing of the past but agree that the rest of Latin America should provide a stream of migrants to the US for the short to medium term.
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  #67  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:36 AM
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As the developing world develops, it’s only going to get worse for the US and Europe. Africa is rapidly industrializing, China and much of East Asia outside of Japan are increasing their quality of life. Latin America will eventually see a turn-around.

It’s an interesting topic too, considering that a lot of people in the Western World don’t want people from the developing world to come here and compete with them for resources. Yet, the West may need these people to maintain growth.

It’s gonna be interesting how things will progress this century. As for the future domestic growth of the US, I am now solid in my belief that the non-Hispanic White population will be a minority while Latinos will take their place. I’ve seen many babies and kids during my time doing a rotation at a pediatric clinic and most of my patients are probably of Mexican descent. Yeah, this is just in Southern California, but I can see the trend projected across the country. Even as the US declines a bit, it will not be the same country that the older generation knew.
Agree on all of your points. I didn't see it coming just a few years ago but the US is looking more and more like Europe demographically. TFR is heading well below replacement, population growth is tanking, and the ability to plug that demographic hole with immigrants is limited.

Judging by the social upheaval occurring in the US you'd never know that the non-Hispanic white population in the US were still in the majority. It gives one pause for thought. When they dip close to 50% and then lower, things might go from terrible to worse. On second thought, maybe I'm wrong. California's social cohesion doesn't seem any worse than states like Ohio.
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  #68  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 2:30 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
In order to mitigate low TFR, countries with relatively small populations like Canada don't need to attract as many immigrants as countries with huge populations like the US. The US has 9 times Canada's population and would need to attract roughly 9 times as many immigrants (assuming TFR in both nations is similar) to accomplish the same thing. That's a tough ask. In reality, net migration is nowhere near that 9 to 1 ratio. Canada, shockingly, had net migration numbers only slightly below the US in 2018-2019.

Throughout history, the vast majority of migrants heading to northern America went to the US. For the first time in history, Canada is grabbing a large chunk of those migrants. Unthinkable just a few years ago, but Canada could potentially record a higher number than the US in the near term.


Net International Migration 2018 - 2019

Canada: +436,689
United States: +595,348


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...st-nation.html
None of this really contradicts what I said. I'm well aware Canada is a fraction of the size of the US. The US does not take in as many immigrants as it should/needs because it doesn't want to, not because people don't want to come to the US.
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  #69  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 4:57 PM
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  #70  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 8:57 PM
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I read so many conflicting things about population growth/shrinkage of the US that it's hard to know what to believe. No one knows for sure anyway.

Some sources say places like Chicago, LA and NY are still growing, especially the greater metropolitan areas.
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  #71  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 9:44 PM
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^^
The Big 3 has slowed down considerably. It's even more pronounced than the US as a whole:

NEW YORK CSA

2000 --- 21,501,800 --- 8.5%
2010 --- 22,255,628 --- 3.5%
2019 --- 22,589,036 --- 1.5%


LOS ANGELES CSA

2000 --- 16,373,645 -- 12.7%
2010 --- 17,877,006 --- 9.2%
2019 --- 18,711,436 --- 4.7%


CHICAGO MSA

2000 ---- 9,098,970 -- 11.2%
2010 ---- 9,461,537 --- 4.0%
2019 ---- 9,458,539 -- -0.0%


And the United States for comparison:

2000 -- 281,421,906 -- 13.2%
2010 -- 308,745,538 --- 9.7%
2020 -- 330,047,526 --- 6.9%
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  #72  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2020, 10:10 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Agree on all of your points. I didn't see it coming just a few years ago but the US is looking more and more like Europe demographically. TFR is heading well below replacement, population growth is tanking, and the ability to plug that demographic hole with immigrants is limited.

Judging by the social upheaval occurring in the US you'd never know that the non-Hispanic white population in the US were still in the majority. It gives one pause for thought. When they dip close to 50% and then lower, things might go from terrible to worse. On second thought, maybe I'm wrong. California's social cohesion doesn't seem any worse than states like Ohio.
I have feeling that the non-Hispanic White and African American populations in the US are declining while the Hispanic population is slightly growing. The portion of the white and black populations still growing are probably children of 1st generation immigrants from Europe and Africa/ Caribbean respectively and most of those folks are in the top urban areas in the country.

Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems that small town/ rural America is dying a slow death. With stuff like the opioid epidemic, economic decline, meth addiction, overall despair, and loss of community among other things due to decreased church or community involvement, it’s hard to think that things are really going well outside the major urban areas.
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  #73  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2020, 6:14 PM
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The current low growth rate of the US is playing out all over the Western world and has been for decades. The birth rate is well below replacement levels and this will continue to accelerate. Immigration now accounts for a staggering 80% of all population growth in Canada.

For many people in the countries effected, they are fine with this. Their countries or big cities are crowded enough for them, allowing people in who have totally different values and social norms {especially in Europe}, and as housing prices continue to rise, many think the negatives of immigration out weigh the positives.

The problem the governments have is that as the Boomers continue to retire, live longer, but with far fewer young workers to take their place, the pensions systems and healthcare costs will be untenable. Governments need these younger workers to keep the economy rolling and pay for the ever rising costs of a aging population.
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  #74  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2020, 3:33 PM
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Aside the general US slow down, another important mark for 2020 Census: non-Hispanic White population will decline for the first time ever between Census:

1950 --- 131,805,405
1960 --- 153,217,498
1970 --- 169,622,593
1980 --- 180,256,366
1990 --- 188,128,296
2000 --- 194,552,774
2010 --- 196,817,552
2015 --- 197,534,496 (peak)
2018 --- 197,033,939
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  #75  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2020, 4:54 PM
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Rising housing prices are not due to immigration per se. Housing prices are often highest in places that, proportionately, are not growing especially fast. Victoria in Canada, vs Edmonton? San Francisco/NYC in the USA vs. Phoenix/Houston?

If they are due to immigration then it is no different than the demand induced by migration from the hinterlands.

Nimbyism, lack of land to expand housing, zoning and development policies/priorities, tax policies regarding principal residence, rock-bottom interest rates and lax lending policies are more to blame for stratospheric housing inflation.
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  #76  
Old Posted Sep 21, 2020, 5:08 PM
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The current low growth rate of the US is playing out all over the Western world and has been for decades. The birth rate is well below replacement levels and this will continue to accelerate. Immigration now accounts for a staggering 80% of all population growth in Canada.

For many people in the countries effected, they are fine with this. Their countries or big cities are crowded enough for them, allowing people in who have totally different values and social norms {especially in Europe}, and as housing prices continue to rise, many think the negatives of immigration out weigh the positives.

The problem the governments have is that as the Boomers continue to retire, live longer, but with far fewer young workers to take their place, the pensions systems and healthcare costs will be untenable. Governments need these younger workers to keep the economy rolling and pay for the ever rising costs of a aging population.
So we have a ponzi scheme in place, and you're saying the only solution is to keep growing so the scheme can continue? Even if we were to surge in growth, wouldn't this same problem exist a generation or two down the line? You can't grow forever, and it's not healthy or realistic to think you can.

There are alternatives between perpetual growth and economic collapse, you know. How about taxing people like Jeff Bezos, who is on track to become a fucking trillionaire, to pay for the ever rising costs of an aging population?
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  #77  
Old Posted Sep 23, 2020, 5:06 PM
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We've talked about the US, and the 2nd largest country of Americas, Brazil, will also face aging issues:

1980 --- 119.011.052
1991 --- 146.825.475 --- 23.4%
2000 --- 169.799.170 --- 15.6%
2010 --- 190.747.731 --- 12.3%
2020 --- 208.000.000 ----- 9.0%
2030 --- 221.000.000 ----- 6.2%


The way things are evolving, it seems population will start to decline somewhere between 2035-2040.
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  #78  
Old Posted Sep 23, 2020, 5:24 PM
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Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems that small town/ rural America is dying a slow death. With stuff like the opioid epidemic, economic decline, meth addiction, overall despair, and loss of community among other things due to decreased church or community involvement, it’s hard to think that things are really going well outside the major urban areas.
Population decline outside of metropolitan areas is a phenomenon throughout the developed world. The factors may differ slightly from country to country but the emptying out of rural areas has been going on for a while. Young people leave after high school leaving these places with mostly middle aged and older.

As these cohorts start dying off population decline will be far more severe because there's practically no one of child bearing age to offset that. I suppose some urbanites will buy summer homes and/or retire in these places as money tied up in real estate will go a lot further in these depressed places.
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  #79  
Old Posted Sep 23, 2020, 5:34 PM
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^^

And the United States

2000 -- 281,421,906 -- 13.2%
2010 -- 308,745,538 --- 9.7%
2020 -- 330,047,526 --- 6.9%


.... Brazil

2010 --- 190.747.731 --- 12.3%
2020 --- 208.000.000 ----- 9.0%
2030 --- 221.000.000 ----- 6.2%
Looks like Brazil is tracking the US but with a 10 year delay.
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  #80  
Old Posted Sep 23, 2020, 6:30 PM
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Looks like Brazil is tracking the US but with a 10 year delay.
My thoughts exactly when I was analyzing Brazilian data.

While numbers present this 10-year delay, growth components are quite different: Brazil has a neutral migration rate while the US is positive, but not so much lately.

In Brazil, growth is basically births minus deaths and while births peaked in the mid-1980's at 4 million/year, it now stands at 2.8 million, down from 3.3 million in 2000 and 3 million in 2010. Deaths, on the other hand, are always on a rising as the population ages. By 2030, I guess Brazil will be at 2.5-2.8 million while deaths will rise from 1.3 million in 2019 to around 1.8 million by 2030, for an annual increase below 1 million/year by the late 2020's.
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