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  #221  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 6:05 PM
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Australians just released their 2020 estimates and Melbourne just overtook Sydney as Australian most populated metro area. That’s big!

More: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/australia/cities/
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  #222  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2021, 12:48 AM
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According to this Chicagoland is no longer shrinking (if accurate that's awesome news)

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/2...ago/population
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  #223  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2021, 2:47 AM
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^ Uhhh those numbers are very very off, for all those metros.

Chicagoland should be at 9.5 million not 8.8
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  #224  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2021, 3:25 AM
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It's clearly not CSA (because CSA is an insane definition). But yeah I don't know how it's defined...
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  #225  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 6:11 PM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
^ Uhhh those numbers are very very off, for all those metros.

Chicagoland should be at 9.5 million not 8.8
One could be urban area vs. metro or CSA etc. Not sure though.

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It's clearly not CSA (because CSA is an insane definition). But yeah I don't know how it's defined...
Right, stretching out to farmland is a bit much
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  #226  
Old Posted Apr 20, 2021, 5:12 AM
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These have to be urbanized areas. Birmingham's population is listed abou 200,000 shy of the metro populition a currently defined.
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  #227  
Old Posted Apr 20, 2021, 6:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Australians just released their 2020 estimates and Melbourne just overtook Sydney as Australian most populated metro area. That’s big!

More: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/australia/cities/
Yeah that is big. Anyone know how or why this happened? COL in Sydney? More migration to Melbourne? etc. Anyway, that's very interesting.
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  #228  
Old Posted Apr 20, 2021, 10:29 AM
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Yeah that is big. Anyone know how or why this happened? COL in Sydney? More migration to Melbourne? etc. Anyway, that's very interesting.
Both are now growing faster than the national average, MEL since 2001 and SYD since 2011. Australians are concentrating even more around their two largest cities. Sydney is more expensive and that’s why Melbourne pulled ahead. That’s not the first time though: during Australian Gold Rush in the 1860’s, MEL also overtook SYD, which later retook its place.
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  #229  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2021, 1:15 AM
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I'll add that Melbourne has long been considered Australia's most important city culturally. It maintained that position even during those decades when Sydney was ahead. We grew up in an era when Sydney was largest but these 2 cities have long been quite similar in size.
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  #230  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2021, 5:46 PM
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Unlike Toronto & Montreal where Toronto overtook Montreal in population in the late 1970s, Melbourne & Sydney are so close that this battle for Australia's biggest city prize could go on almost indefinitely. They are so close and both growing that they could go back and forth for decades to come.
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  #231  
Old Posted May 12, 2021, 11:33 PM
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2020 Chinese Census is out: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/china/prov/admin/

1.411 billion people, 5.8% growth over 2010.
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  #232  
Old Posted May 13, 2021, 4:02 AM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
2020 Chinese Census is out: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/china/prov/admin/

1.411 billion people, 5.8% growth over 2010.
The slowest growth rate since the 1950s. China is getting old, they will lose 70 million in their workforce in the coming years.
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  #233  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2021, 1:41 PM
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As we have the US Census numbers, here an update for the situation in the continent.

Largest Metropolitan Areas in Americas (2020)

--------------------- 2020 --- 10-year growth

Mexico City ----- 22.727.239 --- 9,0%

New York -------- 22.692.839 --- 6,2%

São Paulo ------- 22.020.009 --- 8,4%

Los Angeles ----- 18.644.680 --- 4,3%

Buenos Aires ---- 16.025.500 -- 11,5%

Rio de Janeiro -- 12.616.337 --- 6,7%

Lima ------------ 10.804.609 -- 17,5%

Bogotá ----------- 9.986.954 -- 14,5%

Chicago ---------- 9.618.502 --- 1,7%

San Francisco ---- 8.036.501 --- 8,4%

Toronto ---------- 7.950.441 -- 14,5%

Santiago --------- 7.912.746 -- 15,0%

Dallas ----------- 7.320.577 -- 19,9%

Houston ---------- 7.122.240 -- 20,3%

Philadelphia ----- 6.245.051 --- 4,7%

Miami ------------ 6.138.333 -- 10,3%

Boston ----------- 6.095.791 --- 8,3%

Atlanta ---------- 6.089.815 -- 15,2%

Washington ------- 5.937.417 -- 13,3%

Monterrey -------- 5.341.177 -- 26,4%

Detroit ---------- 5.325.319 --- 2,0%

Guadalajara ------ 5.268.642 -- 16,5%

Belo Horizonte --- 5.244.005 --- 9,9%

For the US and Mexico, 2020 Census numbers. For other countries, estimates as several had their census postponed or conduct on other periods.
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  #234  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2021, 1:49 PM
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BA has 16 million? I had no idea.

The core is obviously huge and quite dense/vibrant, but BA doesn't have a large suburban expanse. You have the urban core, some slums, and then you're out in the countryside. It doesn't feel anything like Sao Paulo/Mexico City. Feels more Lima/Bogota/Santiago.
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  #235  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2021, 1:56 PM
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--- New York, with its strong performance, managed to be tied to Mexico City and São Paulo on the top;

--- On the 2nd group, we now have Buenos Aires tracking Los Angeles mostly due the disappointing number from LA;

--- Lima is growing fast and we'll be very close to Rio de Janeiro by 2030. Rio de Janeiro is not far away from having negative natural growth (births minus deaths), so the growth will be very slow. Bogotá, and Colombia as a whole, will slow down fast as their birth rates plunged. Chicago will need a 4% growth to become a megacity. Not difficult, but not easy either;

--- San Francisco, Toronto, Santiago, Dallas and Houston all growing fast. For now. Chilean capital will start to deal with smaller growth as births plunged there. San Francisco and Toronto with high housing prices. And the Texans, well, they're the strongest bet to keep growing at a fast pace;

--- Then another group with 5 US metro areas: Philadelphia, Miami, Boston, Atlanta and Washington, Boston being the biggest surprise here.

--- Monterrey with the highest growth rate in the group and Guadalajara doing quite well. Let's see if they will manage to keep those rates. Belo Horizonte slightly above Brazilian average for the past 30 years, so it will probably grow slower as the rest of the country. Detroit with a promising positive and it seems it will be that way during the 2020's, maybe even targeting a 5.5 million by 2030.

--- Seattle, Phoenix and Caracas are about to break the 5 million barrier. We have some on the continent 4 million people metro areas (Brasília, Recife, Porto Alegre, Montreal) but they're still far away from the 5 million mark.
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  #236  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2021, 2:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
BA has 16 million? I had no idea.

The core is obviously huge and quite dense/vibrant, but BA doesn't have a large suburban expanse. You have the urban core, some slums, and then you're out in the countryside. It doesn't feel anything like Sao Paulo/Mexico City. Feels more Lima/Bogota/Santiago.
I used Buenos Aires + La Plata, although they're regarded as two separate metro areas by Argentinian office.

Argentina indeed is empty. Buenos Aires ends and then only fields. In fact, it seems Los Angeles in this regard.

Mexico City has the Central Valley and São Paulo its Macrometropolitan Area, both way above 30 million people in those regions. And New York, of course, boxed by Philadelphia, Allentown and Hartford areas.
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  #237  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2021, 2:01 PM
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I'm a bit surprised at how high the growth rates of some of those Latin American cities are. Birth rates & immigration are low, and their national populations are already mostly urbanized. Is internal migration from less-desirable cities driving the growth in places like Monterrey and Guadalajara?
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  #238  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2021, 2:01 PM
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Mexican urban growth has increased, after slowing down in past decades. I think a major factor is the deteriorating security situation in rural areas.

My in-laws moved from Mexico City to a rural town nearby, in part for "safety", 15 years ago. Now they're thinking of moving back, again in part for "safety". Unlike perceptions in the U.S., in Mexico the rural areas are now stereotyped as crime-ridden hellholes and the biggest cities are the safest.

I could see Bogota's population growing faster, given that Venezuela is emptying out, and Colombia is the biggest beneficiary.
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  #239  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2021, 2:03 PM
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Is internal migration from less-desirable cities driving the growth in places like Monterrey and Guadalajara?
The Mexican Big Three (Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey) are now stereotyped as safest for middle class people, and rural areas are now stereotyped as lawless, with drug warlords controlling most public services. Not sure ether stereotype is rooted in reality, however.

So it's likely that middle class Mexicans have reversed their migration patterns from the 90's and 00's, when they were fleeing the biggest cities.
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  #240  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2021, 2:07 PM
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I'm a bit surprised at how high the growth rates of some of those Latin American cities are. Birth rates & immigration are low, and their national populations are already mostly urbanized. Is internal migration from less-desirable cities driving the growth in places like Monterrey and Guadalajara?
Specifically about Mexico, their TFR is way above Brazil and only now they're around 2.0 whereas that happened in Brazil 20 years ago.

Brazil had also a a more complete network of metropolitan areas, more similar to the US, while Mexico is only now reinforcing theirs. Monterrey and Guadalajara seemed to have a critical mass and became powerful magnets on their own. A smaller Mexican immigration to the US might have helped too.

About South America, Peru is still making its transition, while Colombia and Chile just did. I'll expect a healthy growth for them for while, specially for Lima that will probably overtake Rio de Janeiro by the mid-2030's or so.

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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Mexican urban growth has increased, after slowing down in past decades. I think a major factor is the deteriorating security situation in rural areas.

My in-laws moved from Mexico City to a rural town nearby, in part for "safety", 15 years ago. Now they're thinking of moving back, again in part for "safety". Unlike perceptions in the U.S., in Mexico the rural areas are now stereotyped as crime-ridden hellholes and the biggest cities are the safest.

I could see Bogota's population growing faster, given that Venezuela is emptying out, and Colombia is the biggest beneficiary.
Colombia would profit more from the Venezuelan exodus, but their birth rates collapse fast, with the Census numbers coming way below the Estimates.
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