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  #181  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2021, 4:23 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
While I am hoping for a major turnaround in the population sweepstakes for Chicagoland, I don't see anything looming on the immediate horizon that will change the trend. On the other hand, Toronto and surroundings have been growing by more than 100K per year, every year, for 30+ years. The GTA may get to mega city status before Chicagoland. I would not be surprised if Dallas and/or Houston get there first. Numbers for San Francisco are all over the place, depending on the definition.
Chicagoland can sneeze its way to 10M. I doubt Dallas or Houston will get there first, even if one of those metros does eventually overtake Chicagoland in population. Torontoland (Golden Horseshoe) might get there first, since it's growing much faster and is already above 9M.
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  #182  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2021, 12:03 PM
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US life expectancy dropped a full year in first half of 2020, according to CDC. Covid-19 was a big factor

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"The life expectancy for the entire US population fell to 77.8 years, similar to what it was in 2006, CDC data shows."
That's a massive drop. The US has been struggling to the opiod pandemic and now Covid that was particularly bad the the country. It's now 8 years below Japan, 6 years below France, Spain and Italy, 4 below Chile, still a developing country.
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  #183  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2021, 1:15 PM
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Hispanics in the us live 4 years longer than whites , on average
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  #184  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2021, 11:03 AM
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Hong Kong's population dropped slightly according to their census department:


Population Estimates


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Population ('000)

Mid-2020: 7,481.8

End-2020: 7,474.2
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  #185  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2021, 4:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Elkhanan1 View Post
Actually, the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), the extended region wrapping around Toronto, had a population of 9,245,438 already in 2016. Using the expansive American definition of a metro area, rather than the restrictive Canadian definition, a metro Toronto region would be only slightly under that figure today.
The GGH is just a densely populated area where certain provincial growth policies apply. It was never intended to define any kind of extended metropolitan area. Just because the US has inflated metro areas that doesn't mean that we should too.
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  #186  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2021, 4:25 PM
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The GGH is just a densely populated area where certain provincial growth policies apply. It was never intended to define any kind of extended metropolitan area. Just because the US has inflated metro areas that doesn't mean that we should too.
In fact, the US doesn’t inflate. They established a 15% commute threshold to define CSA. I looked for Canadian stats, and here in SSP I found a thread about it.

Commute rates into Toronto GTA is: Guelph at 10%, Kitchener at 3%. Even using American definitions they would be off.
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  #187  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2021, 5:33 PM
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The U.S. is far more sprawly than Canada (or probably any country on earth) so obviously the metro areas will have differing geographic reach.

I mean, you can't just blindly compare across equivalent geographies without accounting for transnational differences. Hong Kong isn't built like Atlanta.
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  #188  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2021, 5:35 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
In fact, the US doesn’t inflate. They established a 15% commute threshold to define CSA. I looked for Canadian stats, and here in SSP I found a thread about it.

Commute rates into Toronto GTA is: Guelph at 10%, Kitchener at 3%. Even using American definitions they would be off.
Is a county ever removed if the commute rates fall below 15%

I only ever see additions, never any subtractions.
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  #189  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2021, 5:42 PM
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Is a county ever removed if the commute rates fall below 15%

I only ever see additions, never any subtractions.
that will be interesting to monitor in the post-covid WFH world.

what exactly will count as a commuter going forward?

will someone who lives in kenosha county, WI who used to drive to their job down in lake county, IL everyday still be counted as a commuter now that they primarily WFH and only head down to the office 2-4 times/month for facetime?

if not, will there be enough of that phenomenon to drop kenosha county below the 15% commuter threshold into chicagoland and thus be removed from chicago's MSA?
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Feb 19, 2021 at 6:34 PM.
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  #190  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2021, 6:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
that will be interesting to monitor in the post-covid WFH world.

what exactly will count as a commuter going forward?

will someone who lives in kenosha county, WI who used to drive to their job down in lake county, IL everyday still be counted as a commuter now that they primarily WFH and only head down to the office 2-4 times/month for facetime?

if not, will there be enough of that phenomenon to drop kenosha county below the 15% commuter threshold into chicagoland and thus be removed from chicago's MSA?
It seems like it could also go the other way too? If less traffic then people who still have to commute can live farther away.
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  #191  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2021, 6:59 PM
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It seems like it could also go the other way too? If less traffic then people who still have to commute can live farther away.
perhaps?

i'm just much more interested in how "commuter" will be defined going forward now that we will have such a significantly larger share of the workforce that isn't literally traveling to an office every single workday.

since the entire concept of MSAs and CSAs is based off of commuter percentages, that definition starts to become critically important, specifically for many of those loosely associated fringe counties that just barely nudged over the 15% threshold in the pre-covid world.
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  #192  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2021, 8:35 PM
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Originally Posted by C. View Post
Is a county ever removed if the commute rates fall below 15%

I only ever see additions, never any subtractions.
They do subtract counties once in a while. However as every urban area in the US grows in area, even the ones who lose population, it’s only natural that they keep adding new counties into them.
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  #193  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2021, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
In fact, the US doesn’t inflate. They established a 15% commute threshold to define CSA. I looked for Canadian stats, and here in SSP I found a thread about it.

Commute rates into Toronto GTA is: Guelph at 10%, Kitchener at 3%. Even using American definitions they would be off.
The thing about the Golden horseshoe that is different from US metropolis is that there is no such thing as a bedroom community, the cities are not really suburbs in the american sense because they all have huge industrial-commercial employment centres of their own. And just as many Torontonian commute outside of Toronto that commute inside. and that's the same for the other cities in the region, someone in kitchener might not commute to the city of Toronto, but likely commute to another large employment centre in the region because their are 5 larger commercial-industrial area between Toronto and kitchener.

It is truly a regional economy with traffic and commutes going in every direction, ie from "suburb" to "suburb". The cities are also all growing fast. Which is why the province created the Greater Goldenhorse, place to grow act, the greenbelt, metrolink to manage all this multi directional growth. Although the city Toronto doesn't dominate the other cities like in the US sense, their economy and growth are still very intertwined.
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  #194  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2021, 12:53 AM
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Huh?
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  #195  
Old Posted Feb 27, 2021, 6:53 PM
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Sweden released their 2020 population estimate. As they don't conduct census, those are the official numbers:

Code:
1980 ---- 8.317.937

1990 ---- 8.590.630 --- 3.28%

2000 ---- 8.882.792 --- 3.40%

2010 ---- 9.415.570 --- 6.00%

2020 --- 10.379.295 -- 10.24%
They've reached the 10 million mark few years ago, and their population growth is speeding up, fueled mostly by immigration from Middle East and Africa.


And Stockholm is at Sun Belt growth rates:

Code:
1980 ---- 1.528.200

1990 ---- 1.641.669 --- 7.43%

2000 ---- 1.823.210 -- 11.06%

2010 ---- 2.054.343 -- 12.68%

2020 ---- 2.391.990 -- 16.44%
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  #196  
Old Posted Feb 27, 2021, 8:59 PM
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texas is going to be the most populous state soon. 29,360,759 (2020) texas

california is losing people and texas is gaining people. 39,368,078 (2020) califrornia
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  #197  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2021, 7:56 AM
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texas is going to be the most populous state soon. 29,360,759 (2020) texas

california is losing people and texas is gaining people. 39,368,078 (2020) califrornia
It will be along time before Texas overtakes California.
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  #198  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2021, 11:27 AM
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Texas is adding 4 million people/decade, and even if California sees zero growth forever, the overcome would happen only in 2045 and till then lots of things could happen, including Texas becoming another big, dense, low growth state. A bigger Ohio.
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  #199  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2021, 11:58 AM
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Denmark, the same case, no Census, only Estimates:

2011 --- 5,560,628
2021 --- 5,840,045 --- 5.02%

Copenhagen metro area (Capital Region + Zealand):

2011 --- 2.519.150
2021 --- 2.693.924 --- 6.94%

And the city proper (Copenhagen + Frederiksberg)

2011 ----- 638.324
2021 ----- 741.794 -- 16.21%

Denmark very similar to Sweden. From almost population stagnation between the 1970's and the 1990's to an always bigger growth.

And Copenhagen proper following a similar pattern we've watched across the Atlantic (Washington DC, Atlanta, Seattle, etc.), with central cities booming.
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  #200  
Old Posted Feb 28, 2021, 4:15 PM
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It will be along time before Texas overtakes California.
probably 5 years. people are leaving cities on the east coast too and moving to smaller cities close by and to texas or something. thats a good thing with california because it could have a natural disaster some day.
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