HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #1  
Old Posted Sep 7, 2020, 7:26 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,719
Census 2020/2021 Worldwide

As most of statistical offices have their Census scheduled to this period, I found it would be nice to center all discussions in one place. Obviously the US will run the show here in this thread, but we can also bring stuff from elsewhere.

Anyway, I guess the big news is the collapse of US growth in this decade:

Code:
2000 ---- 281,421,906 ---- 13.2%

2010 ---- 308,745,538 ----- 9.7%

2020 ---- 330,047,526 ----- 6.9%
And obviously, this will impact directly the growth of their metropolitan areas. New York CSA is projected to grow mere 1.5% this decade to reach 22.6 million people, as opposed to much healthier 3.5% (2000's) and 8.5% (1990's).

And that's everywhere: Chicago CSA shriking, after growing at double-digit rate in the 1990's (10.9%). Los Angeles CSA posed to surpass New York since the 1960's, is finding its plateau with 4.7% growth this decade.

On the other hand, quite a few managed to go against the trend, most notably San Francisco MSA+San Jose MSA, reaching 9% this decade against 5% on the past or Boston MSA, jumping from 3.6% to 7% this decade.

What are your thoughts, anybody wants to guess what the Census numbers will reveal?
__________________
São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2  
Old Posted Sep 7, 2020, 7:38 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,719
Elsewhere, big cities seem to do much better. The biggest surprise comes from Germany, a country with one of the worst demographics in the world, improved its economy and open the doors for immigration and its cities are under a mini-boom.

Berlin, with 11.4% growth between 2011-2019, reaching 4.5 million in its (strict) metro area. That's sunbelt kind of growth. Atlanta MSA, for instance, is at 13.9% this decade.

Then we have Hamburg at 7.7%(2.7 million inh.), Munich at 10.1% (2.4 million inh.), Frankfurt at 10.6% (2 million inh.) and Leipzig for a whopping 16.3% growth (681k inh.).

In Britain, London's fast growth has been for a while. 11.4% between 2001-2011 Census and 7.8% between 2011-2018, heading for another decade double-digit. That's the agglomeration we're talking about, with its 14.2 million inh.
__________________
São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #3  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 3:09 AM
The North One's Avatar
The North One The North One is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 5,253
I don't see a reason to be putting much stock in US numbers since everything is going to shit and will no doubt be horribly inaccurate this decade. It was already bad without the pandemic with it being underfunded.
__________________
Spawn of questionable parentage!
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #4  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 3:29 AM
isaidso isaidso is offline
The New Republic
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: United Provinces of America
Posts: 10,583
Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Obviously the US will run the show here in this thread, but we can also bring stuff from elsewhere.
Do you mean because most of the posters on SSP are Americans as demographically the US is only 5% of the world population. In terms of changes, most of the world's growth is happening in Africa.
__________________
World's First Documented Baseball Game: Beachville, Ontario, June 4th, 1838.
World's First Documented Gridiron Game: University College, Toronto, November 9th, 1861.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats since 1869 & Toronto Argonauts since 1873: North America's 2 oldest pro football teams
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #5  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 3:41 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,719
Quote:
Originally Posted by The North One View Post
I don't see a reason to be putting much stock in US numbers since everything is going to shit and will no doubt be horribly inaccurate this decade. It was already bad without the pandemic with it being underfunded.
Statistical offices have sophisticated models that calculate undercounting. US Census Bureau is one of the best, so I don't think that will be a problem.

Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Do you mean because most of the posters on SSP are Americans as demographically the US is only 5% of the world population. In terms of changes, most of the world's growth is happening in Africa.
Here in SSP likes to discuss the US, so that will take most of the talk.
__________________
São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #6  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 5:59 PM
ssiguy ssiguy is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: White Rock BC
Posts: 9,539
In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #7  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 6:40 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,719
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.
That's the main problem. Fortunately for Brazil (which postponed its Census for 2021) migration is pretty much zero. All growth is natural.

And inside the country, big waves of domestic migration are a thing of the past. It makes estimates much easier to make. We can assume migration levels remain the same of the past decade or assume it grew or fell according to fluctuations on the number of births.

And speaking of which, Brazil grew 12.3% between 2000-2010 and is heading for a 9% between 2010-2020. For the next decade, I believe it will fall to 6%.

São Paulo metro area will grow by 1.5 million (8% down from 10% on the last decade) to reach 21.2 million. 1.7 million based on natural growth while migration will be negative by 200,000 people, leaving the metro area mostly to the nearby metro areas part of the macrometropolis (Campinas region, the coast).
__________________
São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #8  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 6:50 PM
sentinel's Avatar
sentinel sentinel is offline
Plenary pleasures.
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 3,767
Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
As most of statistical offices have their Census scheduled to this period, I found it would be nice to center all discussions in one place. Obviously the US will run the show here in this thread, but we can also bring stuff from elsewhere.

Anyway, I guess the big news is the collapse of US growth in this decade:

Code:
2000 ---- 281,421,906 ---- 13.2%

2010 ---- 308,745,538 ----- 9.7%

2020 ---- 330,047,526 ----- 6.9%
And obviously, this will impact directly the growth of their metropolitan areas. New York CSA is projected to grow mere 1.5% this decade to reach 22.6 million people, as opposed to much healthier 3.5% (2000's) and 8.5% (1990's).

And that's everywhere: Chicago CSA shriking, after growing at double-digit rate in the 1990's (10.9%). Los Angeles CSA posed to surpass New York since the 1960's, is finding its plateau with 4.7% growth this decade.

On the other hand, quite a few managed to go against the trend, most notably San Francisco MSA+San Jose MSA, reaching 9% this decade against 5% on the past or Boston MSA, jumping from 3.6% to 7% this decade.

What are your thoughts, anybody wants to guess what the Census numbers will reveal?
I'm sorry, where is this information coming from? Can you provide links please?
__________________
Don't be shy. Step into the light.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #9  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 10:22 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,719
Quote:
Originally Posted by sentinel View Post
I'm sorry, where is this information coming from? Can you provide links please?
The original source is the US Census Bureau. For the sake of simplicity, I go either to Wikipedia (Demographics of the United States, list of MSAs, list of CSAs) or to the https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/ to check data from the US and all over the world.

I used the 2020 estimates for the country and the 2019 for MSAs/CSAs.
__________________
São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #10  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 10:54 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
The New Republic
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: United Provinces of America
Posts: 10,583
Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Here in SSP likes to discuss the US, so that will take most of the talk.
You're probably right although hopefully you'll get representation from everywhere.
__________________
World's First Documented Baseball Game: Beachville, Ontario, June 4th, 1838.
World's First Documented Gridiron Game: University College, Toronto, November 9th, 1861.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats since 1869 & Toronto Argonauts since 1873: North America's 2 oldest pro football teams
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #11  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 11:01 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
The New Republic
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: United Provinces of America
Posts: 10,583
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.
All true although we'll likely get to a point very soon where it will be politically difficult to bring immigration levels down drastically. The Boomers will start dying off in large numbers in about 10+ years. We're in a panic to bring in lots of young working age people and quickly. Competition for immigrants will start heating up too as most of the developed world sees natural increase head to zero or negative.

The Conservatives may want fewer immigrants but our economic future demands we stay the course. The big worry is whether a Conservative government would adhere to ideology over what's best for Canada economically. It all hinges on whether immigration will return to pre-COVID levels. Will we see net migration back to 430,000+? Demographically speaking it would be prudent to get that number to 600,000 and keep it there for at least 20 years. In 2040, re-assess.

Canada's Census is in 2021 and July 1st, 2020 estimates haven't been released yet. I'll provide figures for the year ending July 1st, 2019 as a gauge of where we were pre-COVID. The linked site below will spit out numbers for CMAs (Census Metropolitan Area) and CAs (Census Agglomeration) and data by year starting in 2007.


CANADIAN POPULATION (July 1st, 2018 - July 1st 2019)

Population: 37,589,262
Annual Increase: +531,497
Natural Increase: +94,808
Net Migration: +436,689


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm
__________________
World's First Documented Baseball Game: Beachville, Ontario, June 4th, 1838.
World's First Documented Gridiron Game: University College, Toronto, November 9th, 1861.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats since 1869 & Toronto Argonauts since 1873: North America's 2 oldest pro football teams

Last edited by isaidso; Sep 8, 2020 at 11:47 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #12  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 11:48 PM
sentinel's Avatar
sentinel sentinel is offline
Plenary pleasures.
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 3,767
Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
The original source is the US Census Bureau. For the sake of simplicity, I go either to Wikipedia (Demographics of the United States, list of MSAs, list of CSAs) or to the https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/ to check data from the US and all over the world.

I used the 2020 estimates for the country and the 2019 for MSAs/CSAs.
But 2020 US Census hasn't even been completed yet, counting isn't supposed to cease until end of Sept.
__________________
Don't be shy. Step into the light.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #13  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 12:02 AM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2,719
Quote:
Originally Posted by sentinel View Post
But 2020 US Census hasn't even been completed yet, counting isn't supposed to cease until end of Sept.
I’m aware of it. In fact, most of census will be carried out next year (the UK, Commonwealth countries, etc.).

The whole point of the thread is discussing results as soon as they are released. Moreover estimates are fairly accurate and can provide us some lead about the actual results.
__________________
São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #14  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 12:37 PM
MolsonExport's Avatar
MolsonExport MolsonExport is offline
The Vomit Bag.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Otisburgh
Posts: 39,578
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
In the West, social scientists have a horrible time predicting population growth due to so much of our population being dependent upon immigration.

Here is Canada a whopping 80% of our population growth is totally dependent upon immigration as we have the lowest birth rate in both the English & French speaking worlds. This has resulted in population growth forecasts has gone from being a sociological science to a political one because immigration rates are set the political party in power. As a result sociologists and demographers can really only predict population growth with any certainty for just 20% of the total figure.

This year exemplifies that. In August of this year population growth as collapsed as opposed to Aug of 2019. Canada grew by less than 25,000 in August............down 60% purely due to plunging immigration levels.
The dearth of babies affects nearly every developed country. Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Canada, the United States, Brazil....and many others besides have a fertility rate below what is necessary (anything below 2.1) to sustain population levels.


CIA Worldfactbook
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #15  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 9:05 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
The New Republic
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: United Provinces of America
Posts: 10,583
Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
The whole point of the thread is discussing results as soon as they are released. Moreover estimates are fairly accurate and can provide us some lead about the actual results.
Canadian Population Estimates

Q2, 2019: 37,408,205
Q3, 2019: 37,589,262
Q4, 2019: 37,797,496
Q1, 2020: 37,894,799
Q2, 2020: 37,971,020

So from July 1, 2019 to July 1, 2020 the population increase was +562,815 or +1.50%. I believe that's the fastest growth rate in the G7 and the 2nd largest absolute increase after the United States. The previous year July 1, 2018 to July 1, 2019 the increase was +531,497 or +1.43% so growth ramped up a little year over year. For the Big 4 provinces the figures as follows:


Ontario: +260,798 (+1.80%)
Quebec: +104,753 (+1.24%)
Alberta: +77,346 (+1.78%)
BC: +73,404 (+1.45%)


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901
__________________
World's First Documented Baseball Game: Beachville, Ontario, June 4th, 1838.
World's First Documented Gridiron Game: University College, Toronto, November 9th, 1861.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats since 1869 & Toronto Argonauts since 1873: North America's 2 oldest pro football teams

Last edited by isaidso; Sep 9, 2020 at 9:38 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #16  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 9:12 PM
jigglysquishy's Avatar
jigglysquishy jigglysquishy is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Saskatchewan
Posts: 3,210
Decades of below replacement birth rate is a distaster. A country cannot rely solely on immigration and still be healthy.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #17  
Old Posted Sep 10, 2020, 2:39 PM
MolsonExport's Avatar
MolsonExport MolsonExport is offline
The Vomit Bag.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Otisburgh
Posts: 39,578
Cities like New York, London (UK) and Tokyo have long relied on immigration from the hinterlands to maintain/grow population. The difference now being that these cities draw from the four corners of the globe. I don't see much difference at the country level, especially in the New World, where most countries are populated primarily from descendants of immigrants.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #18  
Old Posted Sep 10, 2020, 3:22 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: New York
Posts: 6,857
Quote:
Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
Cities like New York, London (UK) and Tokyo have long relied on immigration from the hinterlands to maintain/grow population. The difference now being that these cities draw from the four corners of the globe. I don't see much difference at the country level, especially in the New World, where most countries are populated primarily from descendants of immigrants.
For New York, it's actually always worked the other way around. New York is often the first stop for people/families migrating to the U.S., and it has been that way since the country began. Then New York feeds the growth of other parts of the country.

It's not extremely common for New York to attract people from other parts of the country. The people who do migrate that way (like I did) are typically college educated and come to do skilled work in an industry specific to NYC.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #19  
Old Posted Sep 10, 2020, 3:24 PM
JManc's Avatar
JManc JManc is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Houston
Posts: 33,818
Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
For New York, it's actually always worked the other way around. New York is often the first stop for people/families migrating to the U.S. Then New York feeds the growth of other parts of the country.

It's not extremely common for New York to attract people from other parts of the country. The people who do migrate that way (like I did) are typically college educated and come to work in an industry that is specific to NYC.
Is that still the case? My family came through NYC 100 years ago when Ellis Island was still in use but now virtually every city has become first contact for new arrivals.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #20  
Old Posted Sep 10, 2020, 3:29 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: New York
Posts: 6,857
Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Is that still the case? My family came through NYC 100 years ago when Ellis Island was still in use but now virtually every city has become first contact for new arrivals.
Yeah, I was gonna add that now many big cities act as gateways, but it's still true for NYC too. NYC's growth still comes from foreign immigration.
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 5:28 AM.

     

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.