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  #21  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2023, 5:23 PM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Your second point about government jobs is probably true, but unrelated to WFH. There is less of an incentive to show up early and kick ass, but there's also fewer perks and career growth potential. Public sector employees don't get bonuses or any of the office perks you hear about companies using to lure employees back to the office. They're often paid less than the private sector, promotional opportunities are fewer, and office conditions are pretty bare bones. It's a trade off for increased stability and usually generous benefits and pensions.
I don't agree with this; my mother worked for the federal government (she's been retired now for many years) and she had many opportunities for career advancement and opportunities for different positions. And her pay just kept increasing. Also, when she worked weekends, she got paid weekend differential; and on top of that, since she worked a lot of evenings, she got nighttime differential on top of the weekend differential if she worked weekends. So, there are incentives to work weekends and at night. And now she has a very generous pension, and some years ago she cashed out her TSP (federal workers' equivalent of a 401K).
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  #22  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2023, 6:55 PM
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Originally Posted by jmecklenborg View Post
Yeah, the whole WFH thing in Washington seems especially egregious. It really reinforces the poor image of government jobs. They have some advantages over normal companies in hiring (no nepotism, for example), but the actual workload seems like a cupcake since there is absolutely no incentive to show up early and kick ass.
This exact same thing is happening in Portland. Tons of city employees are STILL working at home.
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  #23  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2023, 6:58 PM
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Hybrid will be the meeting of the minds. I work for Mr. Penny Pincher himself (Warren Buffet) and even our old ass, good ol boy institution is hybrid.
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  #24  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2023, 7:37 PM
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Originally Posted by sopas ej View Post
Also, when she worked weekends, she got paid weekend differential; and on top of that, since she worked a lot of evenings, she got nighttime differential on top of the weekend differential if she worked weekends. So, there are incentives to work weekends and at night.
The big advantage of most government jobs is that they force you to contribute to a pension or 401k-type account (401b I think?) right away. So if you start working for the city or county or state or federal government at age 22 you can have significant vesting in the pension plan or tax-advantaged retirement plan by the time most people in the private sector get started.

That said, staying at the same workplace and in the same industry for too long is a big mistake. You need to be around different people in different settings and work in different roles.
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  #25  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2023, 4:02 PM
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Something that hasn't been mentioned is the rising urbanist mentality among younger generations (Gen Z, young millennials) that will likely lead to more life-long city dwellers than the typical city --> suburb pipeline. We're more conscious of our carbon footprints and the negative effects of anti-social, auto-centric suburban lifestyles. Also lines up that fewer plan to have children and therefore fewer will be "pushed out" to the suburbs due to space, schools, or safety.
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  #26  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2023, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Toasty Joe View Post
Something that hasn't been mentioned is the rising urbanist mentality among younger generations (Gen Z, young millennials) that will likely lead to more life-long city dwellers than the typical city --> suburb pipeline. We're more conscious of our carbon footprints and the negative effects of anti-social, auto-centric suburban lifestyles. Also lines up that fewer plan to have children and therefore fewer will be "pushed out" to the suburbs due to space, schools, or safety.
GEN Z is America's last urban hope, I agree. Dont fff it up!
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  #27  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 11:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Toasty Joe View Post
Something that hasn't been mentioned is the rising urbanist mentality among younger generations (Gen Z, young millennials) that will likely lead to more life-long city dwellers than the typical city --> suburb pipeline. We're more conscious of our carbon footprints and the negative effects of anti-social, auto-centric suburban lifestyles. Also lines up that fewer plan to have children and therefore fewer will be "pushed out" to the suburbs due to space, schools, or safety.
so sez the hype, but all that remains to be seen. it could be gen z just likes cities to hook up and start careers and then after the starter family moves to the burbs. just as past generations did. we aren’t really there yet in time. so hang in there gen z we are pulling for you!
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  #28  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 2:16 PM
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It's the 1950's all over again.

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  #29  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 2:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Glancing at the article, I cannot believe a well-regarded columnist like Thomas Edsall -

A. Cited Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox, liars-for-hire who have been playing the urban doom loop propaganda for 40 years;
B. Cited peak-pandemic 2020-2021 data to make a point about long-term trends; and
C. Compared decennial Census data to annual Census estimates, which use totally different methodology, and will always result in huge year-over-year swings.

So, yeah, the article is complete garbage. The pandemic was basically the rapture for the Kotkin/Cox types. They'll play that tune for decades now.
Yup. Nothing more need be said. False conclusions based on false data. Moving on...
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  #30  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 2:44 PM
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The real question is will Gen Z or Zoomers be a generation of renters. Unless we have some large housing crash, will be very hard to own property. Our cities are expensive because as usual, we don't build enough and unless we have government intervention to build mass housing, like they do in other places in the world, will be very tough to truly have flourishing cities... because folks will be priced out.

Hybrid work, remote work will only make the burbs even more appealing, and you can't blame folks.

What we need is a collapse of housing markets, because they are over inflated, and we need to start looking at increasing the zoning in many areas. Your biggest driver when it comes to urban prosperity will be housing and making it wallet friendly. Without that, the burbs are the way to go.

I would like the U.S. to have a program where it guarantees a unit for every person that needs one. Or guarantees an apartment for everyone. We should not have homeless here. I am in favor of the Chinese method in that respect with housing. Housing should be a right. If you pay taxes, it should be a right versus this bidding war and competition mind frame we have with housing. That will help in the long run to urban prosperity.

If the U.S. grows to 400 million by 2050, that's a lot of folks to house.
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  #31  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 4:11 PM
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A crash is usually caused by high interest rates and/or a bad economy. That won't help middle-income people on average, though it would help some people.

Upzones are the bigger key, in expensive cities. When land is six figures per unit, a broad upzone might knock tens of thousands off each new home. That'll have a similar effect on existing homes of all types.

Getting rid of parking requirements is another big one, and really effective in urban areas. Suddenly a tight site that could only squeeze a few cars has no limit on housing units. Even on easy sites you're saving tens of thousands per unit.

And of course the biggest method of cheap housing it smaller units. Smaller houses, smaller apartments, everything. At the extreme, why can't a service worker live in a college-like dorm? Why can't a struggling family of four live in a 900 sf condo or townhouse?

We also need to fix condo liability laws. They've completely killed the sub-luxury market in my state, and even much of the luxury market.

Of course I'd focus on infill, not sprawl. We shouldn't kill our rural or natural areas.
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  #32  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 4:14 PM
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
The real question is will Gen Z or Zoomers be a generation of renters. Unless we have some large housing crash, will be very hard to own property. Our cities are expensive because as usual, we don't build enough and unless we have government intervention to build mass housing, like they do in other places in the world, will be very tough to truly have flourishing cities... because folks will be priced out.
If people are being priced out then how is the city not flourishing? A not flourishing city would be one where people are not being priced out...
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  #33  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 4:29 PM
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^ Reminds me of that Yogie Berra quote about how nobody goes to a particular restaurant anymore because it's too crowded.
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  #34  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 7:16 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
If people are being priced out then how is the city not flourishing? A not flourishing city would be one where people are not being priced out...

In a theoretically perfect market where the value of housing solely reflects its value as a place to live for local residents and is in equilibrium with wages, that would be the case. Unfortunately housing isn't actually a perfect free market, and prices can easily be distorted when it's used as a vehicle for speculative investment, or for secondary/vacation homes (both of which tend to become more common as values increase due to the success of a city).

A not-insignificant share of housing in major global cities is currently tied up in these types of unproductive uses, which in turn drives prices up beyond what the local market would normally be able to bear and forces residents to either leave or spend a greater share of their income on shelter; and I needn't spell out why is a problem for the long-term health of cities or for broader economic competitiveness & innovation.
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  #35  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 8:18 PM
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Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
In a theoretically perfect market where the value of housing solely reflects its value as a place to live for local residents and is in equilibrium with wages, that would be the case. Unfortunately housing isn't actually a perfect free market, and prices can easily be distorted when it's used as a vehicle for speculative investment, or for secondary/vacation homes (both of which tend to become more common as values increase due to the success of a city).

A not-insignificant share of housing in major global cities is currently tied up in these types of unproductive uses, which in turn drives prices up beyond what the local market would normally be able to bear and forces residents to either leave or spend a greater share of their income on shelter; and I needn't spell out why is a problem for the long-term health of cities or for broader economic competitiveness & innovation.
I bolded the key part. Chinese and Russian oligarchs aren't/weren't buying houses in Detroit to launder their money. It only works in "flourishing" cities. The phrase "never bet against New York real estate" has held true for so long precisely because expensive real estate is highly correlated with a thriving city.
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  #36  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 8:36 PM
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post

What we need is a collapse of housing markets, because they are over inflated

What? Do you not remember the collapse? Prices collapsed because almost nobody had enough money or credit to buy a place.

Many houses and apartments that were already in disrepair ended up being demolished because owners walked away from them. Gutters weren't cleaned, the homes weren't winterized, etc., and the structures were quickly undermined.
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  #37  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 8:44 PM
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If people are being priced out then how is the city not flourishing? A not flourishing city would be one where people are not being priced out...
I like to think long term. How can a city truly reap its potential 10...15+ years down the line if the prices will be astronomical to future residents or folks that want to move there. To say immigrants, low income folks, and people who want to make it there.

I am not a fan of the gated community nor slow downs. Higher prices and cities that become inaccessible to some is not good in the long run. Plus, for some areas, it only makes folks want to leave. Not good for the local municipality.

I think it comes down to what kind of vision you are seeking. In the acute moment, yes, it can flourish but down the line, if all we are seeing are prices rising and not stabilizing, unless wages magically go up to the point where some places become affordable, it starts to become a boon.

We tend to see this... high priced cities... than folks move to lower cost cities... than those become unaffordable and the cycle continues but at some point, we will run out of affordable cities and its only detrimental from there.

Housing is the key reason why our cities are not flourishing to their true potential.

I'd much rather see a bulk of the growth within the core cities versus the inner ring suburbs or even fringes, but we tend to see that the suburbs grow much more rapidly and that is due to lower cost housing. What this does is limit what our cities truly could be. Results in a lower tax potential for our cities and thus, less future upgrades.
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  #38  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 8:50 PM
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Originally Posted by jmecklenborg View Post
What? Do you not remember the collapse? Prices collapsed because almost nobody had enough money or credit to buy a place.

Many houses and apartments that were already in disrepair ended up being demolished because owners walked away from them. Gutters weren't cleaned, the homes weren't winterized, etc., and the structures were quickly undermined.
Not a total collapse but one that brings prices back to what it was pre-Covid, before the big greed festival occurred with housing prices.

Fortunately there is a decline at the moment with housing prices in general, and I hope it accelerates. Will aid to make some of our metros more affordable to the masses. And yes, it will be at the expense of those that bought but that's what being an idiot and paying 70-100k more for a house than what its actually worth will get yah. To expect the bidding war prices that one bought at to be the new normal for housing is lunacy.
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  #39  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2023, 9:43 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
If people are being priced out then how is the city not flourishing? A not flourishing city would be one where people are not being priced out...
Because it weeds out a diversity in socioeconomics which makes a city truly interesting and vibrant. NYC was far more interesting 25 years ago than it is today.
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  #40  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2023, 12:35 AM
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I guess it depends on the measure of a city.

I think the function of a city is to connect people, in a broad sense beyond personal relationships (buyer meets seller, employer meets employee, etc). This is clearly value-added in an economics sense. It's more than the sum of it's parts. It actively creates wealth.

Communications and transportation technology has for the past 100 years gradually made it less important for everyone to live close together, jobs can be remote, things can be bought online, people have cars to travel further distances, etc. Cities have fewer exclusive name-brand things like a store only found in the biggest malls, you can get in a small town on Amazon now.

But there are so many things that rely on proximity to a large customer and worker base because they are niche. Access to medical care, the long tail of personal services categories. Karate dojos, mentally disabled adult day care that will take your relative and insurance, kitchen and bath tile installation pros who can be out on Wednesday at 8 am, Volkswagen certified paint and body shops, Dermotologists who treat your weird skin thing specifically, restaurants that serve Georgian khachpuri, a vet that's open on Sunday when your cat is looking sickly, a dentist you like, etc.

I think these "long tail of niche categories" activities should also benefit from clustering. A restaurant needs someone who can clean it's vent hood and repair it's dish machine. The repair shop needs to be able to order replacement parts and get them delivered fast and needs a steady supply of qualified tradespeople to hire from a local community college or they'll never be able to keep guys and be understaffed. Also the restaurant is some fast-casual concept and it needs interior design, it needs an architect and they might be remote but the people who install the hipster decor aren't.

All these things are also job creators and small-medium-business markets and none of them can be either sold online or are jobs that can be remote work from home. There's a difference in lifestyle where if you live in a city the answer is always "sure" and if you live in a small town "oh well that won't work out".

Finally at the end of the day Amazon's ability to offer fast grocery delivery for example is dependent on efficient traveling salesman routes for its delivery vehicles which requires density. Even if robot drones bring you things to your home, NYC will always have superior delivery times and you won't get fresh produce air-dropped in the middle of Wyoming.

...

TLDR though, if a city becomes an asset type for the rich, and nobody normal can live there anymore, and it NIMBY's away all the light industry and warehouses and air cargo hubs, etc, then it fails at all this. Then it's not generating the value added from the clustering and we are actually poorer for it.

I guess we can afford to lose a few places like SF to be these kinds of fake show pieces but the US will always need cities that bring lots of things together, which is why places like Dallas will just continue to grow, and why if Chicago got it's shit together it could come back, etc.
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