Select MSAs; Working from Home vs Public Transit, 2019 & 2021

[dimondpark]

I wonder if this is really going to be the new normal?

This is from the Census Bureau's data on how workers commuted to their jobs.

Data by Metropolitan Statistical Area(MSA)

Worked From Home----2019---------2021
New York----------456,674(4.8%)-2,083,041(22.8% of all workers)
Los Angeles-------410,935(6.3%)-1,285,236(21.2%)
Chicago------------271,500(5.7%)--986,333(21.5%)
Atlanta-------------263,225(8.8%---723,838(24.2%)
Dallas--------------250,019(6.6%)--790,917(26.9%)
Washington DC----214,068(6.3%)--1,095,258(33.1%)
Miami--------------192,130(6.3%)--468,687(16.1%)
Phoenix------------185,072(7.9%)---545,296(23.4%)
Philadelphia-------177,697(5.9%)---707,870(23.6%)
San Francisco-----174,591(7.2%)---807,224(35.1%)
Houston-----------173,193(5.1%)---509,410(15.5%)
Boston-------------149,430(5.6)-----691,095(26.9%)
Seattle-------------136,466(6.5%)---625,117(30.6%)
Austin--------------126,055(10.5%)--406,260(32.2%)
San Jose------------49,187(4.8%)----335,407(34.8%)

Commuted to work on
Public Transportation----2019---------2021
New York-------3,000,640(31.6%)--1,737,509(19.0% of all workers)
Chicago----------584,804(12.4%)--221,181(4.8%)
San Francisco---461,832(18.9%)---113,048(4.9%)
Washington DC--440,972(13.1%)--135,445(4.1%)
Boston-----------353,924(13.4%)--144,349(5.6%)
Los Angeles------310,932(4.8%)---168,330(2.8%)
Philadelphia------282,412(9.4%)---141,464(4.7%)
Seattle-----------225,965(10.7%)--62,183(3.0%)
Miami--------------81,881(2.9%)----57,610(2.0%)
Atlanta-------------83,142(2.8%)---29,992(1.0%)
Houston------------65,870(2.0%)---43,152(1.3%)
Dallas--------------48,522(1.3%)----22,500(0.6%)
San Jose-----------47,745(4.7%)----10,988(1.1%)
Phoenix------------42,925(1.8%)----21,437(0.9%)
Austin--------------23,134(1.9%)-----8,817(0.7%)

Los Angeles has declined in total numbers like everywhere else, but it has leapfrogged to 3rd as far as total workers taking public transit to their jobs.

[JManc]

Damn Bay Area just wants to stay home, work in their pajamas and hang out with their cats rather than go to the office. I've only been in once since mid December.

[Crawford]

2021 was still the height of the pandemic. Most of the bigger firms weren't requiring some in-person hours until 2022. So even if there's a new normal, it wouldn't be 2021.

Also, when are they taking the 2021 numbers? The timing would make a big difference.

[mhays]

I wouldn't put too much credence into the 2021 numbers. But 2022 and especially 2023 will be instructive.

That said, the largest declines in transit commuting will probably be the cities where office workers have traditionally ridden transit. Cities where transit is more about service workers won't see as much change.

[Yuri]

I hope working from home numbers collapse fast to the 2019 numbers.

To me it's a very dangerous and might represent the beginning of even stronger antisocial pathologies.

[Trae]

My organization just announced we're letting our Bay Area HQ office lease expire and will be entirely remote. They are going to rent a smaller coworking space for one department who does come in and our receptionist who comes in occasionally. They must love the savings from all our other offices closing + the increases utilization the org has gotten since we all went remote.

Originally Posted by Yuri

I hope working from home numbers collapse fast to the 2019 numbers.

To me it's a very dangerous and might represent the beginning of even stronger antisocial pathologies.

I'd agree with you if during the week and on the weekends the city neighborhoods were dead, but that's not the case. Cities are more lively than ever on the weekends now, and many neighborhoods that saw huge percentages of their population commute out to business districts during the week now have those residents staying home but going about their neighborhood more during the day.

Would bet anything restaurants and shops in traditional neighborhoods have seen an increase in business since WFH became more accepted.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Trae

Would bet anything restaurants and shops in traditional neighborhoods have seen an increase in business since WFH became more accepted.

Chains that previously preferred high profile locations near office workers have started to move into residential areas. Shake Shack and Chipotle are moving into Bed Stuy, Brooklyn. That seemed unthinkable as recently as February 2020: https://ny.eater.com/2023/1/13/23552...ening-bed-stuy

This trend could be bad for local restaurants.

[Crawford]

Bed Stuy has also been gentrifying pretty heavily for about 20 years now. But it recently seems to have gone to another level, so I could see more chain retail.

Around September, I walked Fulton Street from downtown BK to around Ralph Ave. That whole corridor is transformed, and I could see Shake Shack and Chipotle doing well. There are also a bunch of new apartment buildings, and it appears many more are planned.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by JManc

Damn Bay Area just wants to stay home, work in their pajamas and hang out with their cats rather than go to the office. I've only been in once since mid December.

For the people that have to drive to work in the bay area, I'm sure WFH is a godsend. Imagine the commute from Vacaville to let's say Oakland or Freemont .

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Chains that previously preferred high profile locations near office workers have started to move into residential areas. Shake Shack and Chipotle are moving into Bed Stuy, Brooklyn. That seemed unthinkable as recently as February 2020: https://ny.eater.com/2023/1/13/23552...ening-bed-stuy

This trend could be bad for local restaurants.

Well, only if those local restaurants are bad, right?

[Trae]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

Well, only if those local restaurants are bad, right?

right? if shake shack pulled up next to Hawkins Burgers in South LA or Chipotle next to Lucky Boy's in Pasadena, I still know which place I'm going to.

[edale]

My office is in a hybrid schedule, and it really demonstrates how stupid the old way of commuting to the office everyday was. I lose a solid 2 hours of my day commuting, getting ready, etc. on days where I have to go into the office. I spend money on gas and parking, as well as on things like lunch and dry cleaning-- all costs I don't have when working from home. And when I'm in the office, I spend most of the day in my cubicle doing independent work, or sitting with headphones on during zoom meetings. There are very few in-person meetings, only occasional spontaneous interactions, and, to top it off, most of my co-workers insist on wearing masks still. So I spend a lot of time and money to go sit in a cube to do the same work I do from home. And I get to wear a mask on top of it. But hey, someone has to buy those $20 salads to keep downtown afloat lol.

Does it suck that some of the daytime vibrancy of downtowns disappeared when workers started working from home? Sure. But it also sucks to go back to a model that makes little sense in the modern age (for my field, at least) just because people want things to go back to the way they were. Downtowns and cities should evolve to adjust to the new normal of workplace trends.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by Trae

right? if shake shack pulled up next to Hawkins Burgers in South LA or Chipotle next to Lucky Boy's in Pasadena, I still know which place I'm going to.

Okay? I would think fake Mexican street food and Ore-ida crinkle fries wouldn't cut it.

Speaking of Lucky Boy's, compare the customers here: https://www.google.com/maps/@34.1346...4!8i8192?hl=en

To this, literally a block away: https://www.google.com/maps/@34.1328...4!8i8192?hl=en

[Crawford]

Eh, reflexive chain dislike is kind of silly. Chipotle doesn't claim to be authentic, but it's pretty good. No one would compare it to a taqueria or anything Mexican. It's a burrito and bowl place, nothing particularly Mexican, but vaguely rooted in Southwest U.S. cooking.

Shake Shack makes an excellent burger, better than the vast majority of independents. The fries and concretes are really good.

And chains have their purpose. If you have cranky kids, or picky adults, you want something reliable.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Bed Stuy has also been gentrifying pretty heavily for about 20 years now. But it recently seems to have gone to another level, so I could see more chain retail.

Yeah, that area is on the verge of post-gentrification now. I know that the area can support it but chains in the neighborhoods are pretty rare in NYC. Was there a Chipotle in Brooklyn anywhere outside of downtown Brooklyn and Williamsburg before the pandemic? Maybe Park Slope?

Originally Posted by Crawford

Around September, I walked Fulton Street from downtown BK to around Ralph Ave. That whole corridor is transformed, and I could see Shake Shack and Chipotle doing well. There are also a bunch of new apartment buildings, and it appears many more are planned.

I live in CH and I walk to City Point downtown a lot. The change has been mind-blowing. Atlantic Avenue is going through a change that will be even more dramatic once it's said and done.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, that area is on the verge of post-gentrification now. I know that the area can support it but chains in the neighborhoods are pretty rare in NYC. Was there a Chipotle in Brooklyn anywhere outside of downtown Brooklyn and Williamsburg before the pandemic? Maybe Park Slope?

I think chains work largely due to subway traffic, not necessarily due to gentrification alone.

Pre-pandemic, Bay Ridge had Chipotle, Five Guys, Panera and some other chains right near the 86th Street subway hub/shopping district. Park Slope had the same mix along Seventh Ave. near the F train. Similarly, Bed Stuy has heavy pedestrian counts near the Fulton corridor subway stations.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I live in CH and I walk to City Point downtown a lot. The change has been mind-blowing. Atlantic Avenue is going through a change that will be even more dramatic once it's said and done.

Yes, once Pacific Park is built out, and once Atlantic Ave. gets rezoned, the whole corridor out to Queens will be transformed.

[bossabreezes]

Pretty obvious for anyone who's been to SF lately. Downtown is still completely dead and it's very sad to see. I hope it gets better because right now it feels almost totally abandoned.

Other neighborhoods in the city are faring better, but still feel quiet compared to pre-covid.

[cabasse]

Originally Posted by Trae

My organization just announced we're letting our Bay Area HQ office lease expire and will be entirely remote. They are going to rent a smaller coworking space for one department who does come in and our receptionist who comes in occasionally. They must love the savings from all our other offices closing + the increases utilization the org has gotten since we all went remote.



I'd agree with you if during the week and on the weekends the city neighborhoods were dead, but that's not the case. Cities are more lively than ever on the weekends now, and many neighborhoods that saw huge percentages of their population commute out to business districts during the week now have those residents staying home but going about their neighborhood more during the day.

Would bet anything restaurants and shops in traditional neighborhoods have seen an increase in business since WFH became more accepted.

agreed - third places are doing pretty well also. i've had a couple of new local coffee shops open up around my neighborhood and find myself slipping over for a few hours to help focus, a lot more frequently than when i was hybrid WFH pre-pandemic.

[Kngkyle]

Once it becomes apparent that fully remote teams/companies are less productive than those that are not fully remote to an extent which justifies the cost of in-person facilities there will be a tidal wave back to the office.

It was easy at first for companies to adapt to fully remote as everyone had pre-existing relationships from their in-office time prior to the pandemic. After a few years of turnover and new hires not building those relationships the productivity metrics are turning sharply south.

Hybrid is the future. 2/3 days at the office, 2/3 days at home. Fully remote could become a carrot for people staying at a company for many years (thus knowing all the ins and outs) but even that would likely necessitate quarterly travel to the office.

[floor23]

Let's see if WFH continues after the next recession. I've noticed since the start of this year the subway is getting more crowded. I work in Midtown East around GCT, and the surrounding area appears to be much more populated this year compared to last year. I suspect that work from home peaked in 2020-2022 and companies are pressuring employees to return to their offices.