City Murder Rates

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

It's not an excuse, it's the reality.

Nobody can deny that the US has an utterly atrocious and shameful homicide rate.

I mean, that's not even up for debate.

Sure, but I think there can be an understimation of how safe one does or does no feel in a violent city's safe neighbourhoods; and likewise an overestimation of how un-safe one feel's in safe city's violent neighbourhoods.

I took a quick look at the homicide rate maps for Chicago and Toronto, a useful comparison in that both City's (proper) are similar in geographical size and not all that far apart on population.

This is the map for Toronto.



Note the scale (typical homicides per 100,000), and the ranges for each area; the maximum reaches 16.8 for Toronto.

Meaning the least safe neighbourood in Toronto would not rank at all in those 15 cities with the top homicide rates in the U.S.

Toronto's safest areas have a homicide rate of zero.

**

Here's Chicago's Map: (From the Sun-Times)



Note first that the scale is measured at murders per 10,000 people, so you need to multiply by 10 for a comparable scale to Toronto or the national stats.

Literally 1/2 of Chicago rates as having a homicide rate of 100 per 100,000 or higher.

While there are a few dots of near-zero neighbourhoods, for the most part, Chicago's 'safe' areas would rate in close to upper end of Toronto's scale.

****

In all honesty, I couldn't conceive of living like that.

The idea that if you're in the safe area, but miss your highway exit, you either are in a bad area, over have to drive 3 more exits to turn around.

The notion that you, or your spouse or kid have a hard limit of 3 blocks in two different directions before you enter a materially dangerous area.

I mean no disrespect to Chicago, or any other U.S. city beset by crime, but its just a staggering thought.

The comparison matters though, because safety is a very relative sensibility.

I would suppose if I lived in Tokyo which has a homicide rate of 0.35, I'd be horrified at how dangerous Toronto is........

****

All of which is to suggest that a City's overall homicide rate may in fact be broadly indicative of its relative safety over a larger area than its most dangerous few blocks.

[lio45]

Even merely living in Quebec City (no need for it to be Tokyo), one is horrified at how murderous Toronto is.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by lio45

Even merely living in Quebec City (no need for it to be Tokyo), one is horrified at how murderous Toronto is.

Toronto is just over double the homicide rate of Quebec City; but Quebec City is triple the homicide rate of Tokyo!


Of course, if Chicago's homicide rate is


9x that of Toronto

it is

18x that of Quebec City

or

52x that of Tokyo

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Yuri

But we’re all pretty aware of it. My point is people keep bringing it as it was an exception for their own cities whereas in reality it’s the rule everywhere (except in very low homicide rates places where violence is more random).

I was only bringing it up to explain why using city proper is a poor way to compare homicide rates between US cities.

MSA is the apples to apples comparison, but we almost never see those stats talked about and compared because US journalism is terrible, generally speaking.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

****

In all honesty, I couldn't conceive of living like that.

The idea that if you're in the safe area, but miss your highway exit, you either are in a bad area, over have to drive 3 more exits to turn around.

The notion that you, or your spouse or kid have a hard limit of 3 blocks in two different directions before you enter a materially dangerous area.

I mean no disrespect to Chicago, or any other U.S. city beset by crime, but its just a staggering thought.

The comparison matters though, because safety is a very relative sensibility.

I would suppose if I lived in Tokyo which has a homicide rate of 0.35, I'd be horrified at how dangerous Toronto is........

****

All of which is to suggest that a City's overall homicide rate may in fact be broadly indicative of its relative safety over a larger area than its most dangerous few blocks.

You’re thinking of it from the wrong perspective.

Geography is not the best measure of a particular individual’s safety, even if some neighborhoods have much higher rates than others.

Homicide is 95% about relationships. Are you a criminal? Are you a relative of a criminal? Are you friends with a criminal? Are you neighbors with a criminal?

Those are by far the biggest predictors of becoming a homicide victim.

I live on the South side of Chicago, and as a 5 ft tall woman, my personal safety doesn’t actually differ by neighborhood that much, because nobody I spend time with is a criminal, and criminals certainly don’t think I’m a rival either. So the “hard limit of 3 blocks” for an upstanding citizen is in practice not much of a limit at all.




So when we say that “crime is concentrated”, what we mean is that the homicide risk for the average concerned citizen is less than driving unless they have a side hobby of dealing drugs.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

You’re thinking of it from the wrong perspective.

Geography is not the best measure of a particular individual’s safety, even if some neighborhoods have much higher rates than others.

Homicide is 95% about relationships. Are you a criminal? Are you a relative of a criminal? Are you friends with a criminal? Are you neighbors with a criminal?

Those are by far the biggest predictors of becoming a homicide victim.

I live on the South side of Chicago, and as a 5 ft tall woman, my personal safety doesn’t actually differ by neighborhood that much, because nobody I spend time with is a criminal, and criminals certainly don’t think I’m a rival either. So the “hard limit of 3 blocks” for an upstanding citizen is in practice not much of a limit at all.

So when we say that “crime is concentrated”, what we mean is that the homicide risk for the average concerned citizen is less than driving unless they have a side hobby of dealing drugs.

I would not dispute that there is a great deal of truth to what you're saying; though, with the caveat that stranger crimes are a thing (albeit much less common that people tend to think) and they are certainly more common in high crime communities tham low-crime communities.

Likewise, while rare, we know some people have been caught in the crossfire, literally, between two unrelated (to the victim) parties.

While this can happen, in theory, anywhere, it surely happens, however rarely, more commonly in higher crime communities.

Measuring safety by community/neighbourhood may be misleading in some respects to personal risk; but it still speaks to broader opportunity and quality of life in most cases.

***

Perception does matter in terms of quality of life. You, for instance, may well feel safe in your own community (certainly I hope that's the case); but would the typical north-end resident in Chicago feel safe coming to visit you? If not, that changes the experience of a place and has a material impact on qualify of life.

Red-Lining is of course a well known phenomenon in the U.S., areas where businesses choose not to invest, not to loan money, not to insure homes/businesses etc.

Part of that is surely reality-based (higher claims rates, higher loan losses, etc.); some is a discriminatory 'ism' based on perceived problems with a community.

Insofar as the latter is true, those statistics can still serve to inform. Now, one might well point out that these statistics may often correlate to high school drop out rates, the unemployment rate and many other statistics which may be equally useful or perhaps moreso depending on one's circumstance, but I digress.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Some observations:

- Breaking Bad might be based on a true story
- The Madison-Milwaukee divergence is... insane.
- Chicago is about average for a city in the midwest (which... I think most of us knew already but...)
- El Paso must outsource all of its murders to Juarez
- In the interest of future automation, I didn't include any cities not listed by Jeff Asher. However, out of curiosity, I checked Jackson, MS (which had the highest homicide rate of any city I looked at last year), and its annualized rate is... 79.2 +/- 8.3, which is worse than any other city on this list.

Albuquerque has had a high crime/murder rate for awhile. Which is interesting because nearby El Paso is comparatively much safer but across the border is one of the most violent cities in North America (maybe the world).

Jackson is an interesting case. It has seen a level of white flight that other U.S. cities haven’t seen in decades which has left its fairly small city limits mostly black with high rates of poverty and very little economic momentum. Birmingham and Memphis have similar challenges but have more wealth and substantially more dynamic economies.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

****

All of which is to suggest that a City's overall homicide rate may in fact be broadly indicative of its relative safety over a larger area than its most dangerous few blocks.

except it not only may not, it is not -- and you pulled out the most extreme city example and are dishonestly presenting it tabloid style as some kind of norm. the fact is nationally by far most lethal crime is in select neighborhoods.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

You’re thinking of it from the wrong perspective.

Geography is not the best measure of a particular individual’s safety, even if some neighborhoods have much higher rates than others.

Homicide is 95% about relationships. Are you a criminal? Are you a relative of a criminal? Are you friends with a criminal? Are you neighbors with a criminal?

Those are by far the biggest predictors of becoming a homicide victim.

I live on the South side of Chicago, and as a 5 ft tall woman, my personal safety doesn’t actually differ by neighborhood that much, because nobody I spend time with is a criminal, and criminals certainly don’t think I’m a rival either. So the “hard limit of 3 blocks” for an upstanding citizen is in practice not much of a limit at all.




So when we say that “crime is concentrated”, what we mean is that the homicide risk for the average concerned citizen is less than driving unless they have a side hobby of dealing drugs.

I'd argue that You're also thinking about it from the wrong perspective. Homicide is the end, the worst that could happen, and i'd argue the wrong metric. How many people have been shot, or even further up the funnel, how many shots were fired openly in a neighborhood, those are things i'd be more concerned about than murder/homicide.

Additionally, even if Homicides are mostly relationship based, and the average person isn't at much risk, who would want to live in an environment like that? That is a pretty low bar to set .

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

I'd argue that You're also thinking about it from the wrong perspective. Homicide is the end, the worst that could happen, and i'd argue the wrong metric. How many people have been shot, or even further up the funnel, how many shots were fired openly in a neighborhood, those are things i'd be more concerned about than murder/homicide.

there's a remarkably consistent ratio between fatal and non-fatal shooting victims in chicago. for every fatal shooting victim, there are roughly 4 non-fatal shooting victims.

and you can go back years in the data and that ~20% fatality figure remains pretty damn consistent over time. higher murder rate, lower murder rate, it doesn't seem to substantively change that rough proportion.


so if a given geography in chicago had 17 shooting fatalities over a year, multiplying that number by 5 will give you a good enough proxy figure for the approximate number of total shooting victims the area had.

now of course, that doesn't tell you the exact # of shooting incidents because many shootings frequently have multiple victims (both fatal and non-fatal), and then of course there are also shooting incidents where all of the bullets miss a human body, but these things all tend to go strongly hand in hand with each other such that the x5 rule is close enough for a general picture.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

I'd argue that You're also thinking about it from the wrong perspective. Homicide is the end, the worst that could happen, and i'd argue the wrong metric. How many people have been shot, or even further up the funnel, how many shots were fired openly in a neighborhood, those are things i'd be more concerned about than murder/homicide.

The Venn Diagram of shootings to murder is a perfect circle. Involving the same people and the same blocks. Shootings and murder are not a random miasma.

There will be that one block that will have twenty shootings per year that normal people avoid at night, and ten nearby blocks that might have 1-2 shootings in a decade where life goes on like normal.

Chatham is a good example. 90% of that neighborhood’s crime is in one single quadrant.

Additionally, even if Homicides are mostly relationship based, and the average person isn't at much risk, who would want to live in an environment like that? That is a pretty low bar to set .

Well, that’s what gentrification is (or even immigration)

If the personal risk is low, and the location has some valuable amenity (beach, transit, park, university, jobs), then there are always people who will accept that trade off.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

....
and you pulled out the most extreme city example and are dishonestly presenting it tabloid style as some kind of norm...

I did no such thing. Why is it such a hallmark of many SSP posters to engage in impugning people's motives, instead of making a simple, straight forward, fact-based argument?

What I did was start by comparing the City in which I live, to a City of similar size both in geography and population, to which it is often compared, and for which I could easily access comparable maps and statistics.

It is also the City in which the person to whom I was replying actually lives. Seemingly making it rather germane to the discussion.

There was no conspiratorial plan to either make Chicago look bad, nor to establish that all other U.S. cities have precisely the same homicide modelling. I made no such claim; and in fact, said as much.


**

You are free to disagree with the conclusions I drew and provide evidence rather than your assertion, which isn't evidence of much, to support your preferred conclusion.

That's the basis of an interesting exchange of information and viewpoints, not maligning other people you've never met.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

Literally 1/2 of Chicago rates as having a homicide rate of 100 per 100,000 or higher.

that is literally not true.

i was able to go back and find the source data for that 2021 community area homicide rate map that the sun-times put together.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2...lori-lightfoot

out of chicago's 77 CA's, only 7 had a rate north of 100 per 100K last year, and those 7 CA's only hold 5.7% of the city's population.

and an additional 14 CA's had a homicide rate between 50 - 100 per 100K.

together, those 21 CA's, while only containing 23.2% of the city's population, accounted for 69.3% of chicago's homicides last year, with a combined overall rate of 84.0 per 100K.



now, i fully understand that those figures are still outright SHOCKING to canadians (really, they should be shocking to anyone, but over a half century of this bullshit can really numb a person to it), but when we're discussing chicago's atrocious record of gun violence over the past 6 decades, we don't need to resort to hyperbole to overstate the case. the raw data speaks shamefully and loudly enough all by itself.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

that is literally not true.

i was able to go back and find the source data for that 2021 community area homicide rate map that the sun-times put together.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2...lori-lightfoot

out of chicago's 77 CA's, only 7 had a rate north of 100 per 100K last year, and those 7 CA's only hold 5.7% of the city's population.

and an additional 15 CA's had a homicide rate between 50 - 100 per 100K.

together, those 22 CA's, while only containing 23.2% of the city's population, accounted for 69.3% of chicago's homicides last year, with a combined overall rate of 84.0 per 100K.



now, i fully understand that those figures are still outright SHOCKING to canadians (really, they should be shocking to anyone, but over a half century of this bullshit can really numb a person to it), but when we're discussing chicago's atrocious record of gun violence over the past 6 decades, we don't need to resort to hyperbole to overstate the case. the raw data speaks shamefully and loudly enough all by itself.

Fair enough.

I was attempting to decipher that colour coded picture, which and apparently did so incorrectly. There was no intended exaggeration.

Do you have, and can you post the underlying data by CA in the thread? (the link is behind a paywall).

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

Do you have, and can you post the underlying data by CA in the thread? (the link is behind a paywall).

I didn't realize the article was pay-walled (i have an account).

within the article, the map is clickable and it shows the total murders and murder rate per 10K for each of the 77 chicago CA's in 2021.

i just multiplied those rates by 10 to get them to the "per 100K" standard, and only 7 of the CA's rose above 100 per 100K last year (the 7 darkest red CA's on the map you posted).

without doing a whole shitload of typing and math, i do not have the raw data in an easily postable format, but it's all there in that sun-times link for those with accounts.



EDIT:

the raw data the map was based on apparently came from the "chicago data portal", but good luck getting it into a user-friendly format.

it lists every chicago gunshot victim going back to 1991 (over 50,000).

here's the link anyway: https://data.cityofchicago.org/Publi...gumc-mgzr/data

[SIGSEGV]

^In this case, you just have to open the page in developer mode and find the correct script file it's loading.

Here is the js file for community area:

const communityArea_data = [
  {
    "community area": "albany park",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 48396,
    "per 10,000": 0.413257294,
  },
  {
    "community area": "archer heights",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 14196,
    "per 10,000": 1.408847563,
  },
  {
    "community area": "armour square",
    homicides: 5,
    pop: 13890,
    "per 10,000": 3.599712023,
  },
  {
    "community area": "ashburn",
    homicides: 5,
    pop: 41098,
    "per 10,000": 1.216604214,
  },
  {
    "community area": "auburn gresham",
    homicides: 39,
    pop: 44878,
    "per 10,000": 8.690226837,
  },
  {
    "community area": "austin",
    homicides: 71,
    pop: 96557,
    "per 10,000": 7.35316963,
  },
  {
    "community area": "avalon park",
    homicides: 7,
    pop: 9458,
    "per 10,000": 7.40114189,
  },
  {
    "community area": "avondale",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 36257,
    "per 10,000": 0.827426428,
  },
  {
    "community area": "belmont cragin",
    homicides: 12,
    pop: 78116,
    "per 10,000": 1.536176968,
  },
  {
    "community area": "bridgeport",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 33702,
    "per 10,000": 0.5934365913,
  },
  {
    "community area": "brighton park",
    homicides: 9,
    pop: 45053,
    "per 10,000": 1.997647216,
  },
  {
    "community area": "calumet heights",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 13088,
    "per 10,000": 2.292176039,
  },
  {
    "community area": "chatham",
    homicides: 25,
    pop: 31710,
    "per 10,000": 7.883948281,
  },
  {
    "community area": "chicago lawn",
    homicides: 23,
    pop: 55931,
    "per 10,000": 4.112209687,
  },
  {
    "community area": "douglas",
    homicides: 7,
    pop: 20291,
    "per 10,000": 3.449805332,
  },
  {
    "community area": "dunning",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 43147,
    "per 10,000": 0.6952974714,
  },
  {
    "community area": "east garfield park",
    homicides: 32,
    pop: 19992,
    "per 10,000": 16.00640256,
  },
  {
    "community area": "east side",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 21724,
    "per 10,000": 0.920640766,
  },
  {
    "community area": "edgewater",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 56296,
    "per 10,000": 0.1776325139,
  },
  {
    "community area": "englewood",
    homicides: 33,
    pop: 24369,
    "per 10,000": 13.5417949,
  },
  {
    "community area": "fuller park",
    homicides: 4,
    pop: 2567,
    "per 10,000": 15.5823919,
  },
  {
    "community area": "gage park",
    homicides: 8,
    pop: 39540,
    "per 10,000": 2.023267577,
  },
  {
    "community area": "garfield ridge",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 35439,
    "per 10,000": 0.5643500099,
  },
  {
    "community area": "grand boulevard",
    homicides: 14,
    pop: 24589,
    "per 10,000": 5.693602831,
  },
  {
    "community area": "greater grand crossing",
    homicides: 40,
    pop: 31471,
    "per 10,000": 12.71011407,
  },
  {
    "community area": "hegewisch",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 10027,
    "per 10,000": 0.9973072704,
  },
  {
    "community area": "hermosa",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 24062,
    "per 10,000": 1.246779154,
  },
  {
    "community area": "humboldt park",
    homicides: 34,
    pop: 54165,
    "per 10,000": 6.277116219,
  },
  {
    "community area": "hyde park",
    homicides: 5,
    pop: 29456,
    "per 10,000": 1.69744704,
  },
  {
    "community area": "irving park",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 51940,
    "per 10,000": 0.1925298421,
  },
  {
    "community area": "kenwood",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 19116,
    "per 10,000": 1.046243984,
  },
  {
    "community area": "lake view",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 103050,
    "per 10,000": 0.09704027171,
  },
  {
    "community area": "lincoln square",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 40494,
    "per 10,000": 0.4939003309,
  },
  {
    "community area": "logan square",
    homicides: 7,
    pop: 71665,
    "per 10,000": 0.9767669016,
  },
  {
    "community area": "loop",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 42298,
    "per 10,000": 0.7092533926,
  },
  {
    "community area": "lower west side",
    homicides: 11,
    pop: 33751,
    "per 10,000": 3.259162691,
  },
  {
    "community area": "mckinley park",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 15923,
    "per 10,000": 1.884067073,
  },
  {
    "community area": "morgan park",
    homicides: 4,
    pop: 21186,
    "per 10,000": 1.888039271,
  },
  {
    "community area": "near north side",
    homicides: 8,
    pop: 105481,
    "per 10,000": 0.7584304282,
  },
  {
    "community area": "near south side",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 28795,
    "per 10,000": 0.6945650287,
  },
  {
    "community area": "near west side",
    homicides: 20,
    pop: 67881,
    "per 10,000": 2.946332553,
  },
  {
    "community area": "new city",
    homicides: 15,
    pop: 43628,
    "per 10,000": 3.43815898,
  },
  {
    "community area": "north center",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 35114,
    "per 10,000": 0.2847866948,
  },
  {
    "community area": "north lawndale",
    homicides: 44,
    pop: 34794,
    "per 10,000": 12.64585848,
  },
  {
    "community area": "north park",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 17559,
    "per 10,000": 1.139017028,
  },
  {
    "community area": "oakland",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 6799,
    "per 10,000": 4.41241359,
  },
  {
    "community area": "portage park",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 63020,
    "per 10,000": 0.4760393526,
  },
  {
    "community area": "pullman",
    homicides: 6,
    pop: 6820,
    "per 10,000": 8.797653959,
  },
  {
    "community area": "riverdale",
    homicides: 5,
    pop: 7262,
    "per 10,000": 6.885155605,
  },
  {
    "community area": "rogers park",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 55628,
    "per 10,000": 0.3595311714,
  },
  {
    "community area": "roseland",
    homicides: 26,
    pop: 38816,
    "per 10,000": 6.698268755,
  },
  {
    "community area": "south chicago",
    homicides: 11,
    pop: 27300,
    "per 10,000": 4.029304029,
  },
  {
    "community area": "south deering",
    homicides: 6,
    pop: 14105,
    "per 10,000": 4.253810705,
  },
  {
    "community area": "south lawndale",
    homicides: 20,
    pop: 71399,
    "per 10,000": 2.80115968,
  },
  {
    "community area": "south shore",
    homicides: 39,
    pop: 53971,
    "per 10,000": 7.226102907,
  },
  {
    "community area": "uptown",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 57182,
    "per 10,000": 0.3497604141,
  },
  {
    "community area": "washington heights",
    homicides: 13,
    pop: 25065,
    "per 10,000": 5.186515061,
  },
  {
    "community area": "washington park",
    homicides: 8,
    pop: 12707,
    "per 10,000": 6.295742504,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west elsdon",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 18394,
    "per 10,000": 0.5436555398,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west englewood",
    homicides: 21,
    pop: 29647,
    "per 10,000": 7.083347388,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west garfield park",
    homicides: 38,
    pop: 17433,
    "per 10,000": 21.79773992,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west lawn",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 33662,
    "per 10,000": 0.5941417622,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west pullman",
    homicides: 37,
    pop: 26104,
    "per 10,000": 14.17407294,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west ridge",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 77122,
    "per 10,000": 0.2593293742,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west town",
    homicides: 10,
    pop: 87781,
    "per 10,000": 1.139198688,
  },
  {
    "community area": "woodlawn",
    homicides: 17,
    pop: 24425,
    "per 10,000": 6.960081883,
  },
];

If you want it multiplied by 10, you can do that in your javascript console, e.g: (or you could format it more csv-like if you want to put things in a spreadsheet).

out = "";
for (const area of communityArea_data) { out += area["community area"] + ":" + 10*(area["per 10,000"]) + "\n"; }
"albany park:4.13257294
archer heights:14.08847563
armour square:35.99712023
ashburn:12.16604214
auburn gresham:86.90226837
austin:73.5316963
avalon park:74.0114189
avondale:8.27426428
belmont cragin:15.361769679999998
bridgeport:5.934365913000001
brighton park:19.97647216
calumet heights:22.921760390000003
chatham:78.83948281
chicago lawn:41.12209687
douglas:34.49805332
dunning:6.952974714
east garfield park:160.0640256
east side:9.20640766
edgewater:1.776325139
englewood:135.417949
fuller park:155.823919
gage park:20.23267577
garfield ridge:5.643500099
grand boulevard:56.93602831
greater grand crossing:127.1011407
hegewisch:9.973072704
hermosa:12.46779154
humboldt park:62.77116219
hyde park:16.974470399999998
irving park:1.925298421
kenwood:10.46243984
lake view:0.9704027171
lincoln square:4.939003309
logan square:9.767669016
loop:7.092533926
lower west side:32.591626909999995
mckinley park:18.84067073
morgan park:18.88039271
near north side:7.584304282
near south side:6.945650287
near west side:29.46332553
new city:34.3815898
north center:2.847866948
north lawndale:126.4585848
north park:11.39017028
oakland:44.1241359
portage park:4.7603935260000005
pullman:87.97653959
riverdale:68.85155605
rogers park:3.595311714
roseland:66.98268755
south chicago:40.29304029000001
south deering:42.53810705
south lawndale:28.0115968
south shore:72.26102906999999
uptown:3.497604141
washington heights:51.86515061
washington park:62.95742504
west elsdon:5.436555398
west englewood:70.83347388
west garfield park:217.9773992
west lawn:5.941417622
west pullman:141.7407294
west ridge:2.593293742
west town:11.391986880000001
woodlawn:69.60081883

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

^In this case, you just have to open the page in developer mode and find the correct script file it's loading.

Here is the js file for community area:

const communityArea_data = [
  {
    "community area": "albany park",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 48396,
    "per 10,000": 0.413257294,
  },
  {
    "community area": "archer heights",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 14196,
    "per 10,000": 1.408847563,
  },
  {
    "community area": "armour square",
    homicides: 5,
    pop: 13890,
    "per 10,000": 3.599712023,
  },
  {
    "community area": "ashburn",
    homicides: 5,
    pop: 41098,
    "per 10,000": 1.216604214,
  },
  {
    "community area": "auburn gresham",
    homicides: 39,
    pop: 44878,
    "per 10,000": 8.690226837,
  },
  {
    "community area": "austin",
    homicides: 71,
    pop: 96557,
    "per 10,000": 7.35316963,
  },
  {
    "community area": "avalon park",
    homicides: 7,
    pop: 9458,
    "per 10,000": 7.40114189,
  },
  {
    "community area": "avondale",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 36257,
    "per 10,000": 0.827426428,
  },
  {
    "community area": "belmont cragin",
    homicides: 12,
    pop: 78116,
    "per 10,000": 1.536176968,
  },
  {
    "community area": "bridgeport",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 33702,
    "per 10,000": 0.5934365913,
  },
  {
    "community area": "brighton park",
    homicides: 9,
    pop: 45053,
    "per 10,000": 1.997647216,
  },
  {
    "community area": "calumet heights",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 13088,
    "per 10,000": 2.292176039,
  },
  {
    "community area": "chatham",
    homicides: 25,
    pop: 31710,
    "per 10,000": 7.883948281,
  },
  {
    "community area": "chicago lawn",
    homicides: 23,
    pop: 55931,
    "per 10,000": 4.112209687,
  },
  {
    "community area": "douglas",
    homicides: 7,
    pop: 20291,
    "per 10,000": 3.449805332,
  },
  {
    "community area": "dunning",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 43147,
    "per 10,000": 0.6952974714,
  },
  {
    "community area": "east garfield park",
    homicides: 32,
    pop: 19992,
    "per 10,000": 16.00640256,
  },
  {
    "community area": "east side",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 21724,
    "per 10,000": 0.920640766,
  },
  {
    "community area": "edgewater",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 56296,
    "per 10,000": 0.1776325139,
  },
  {
    "community area": "englewood",
    homicides: 33,
    pop: 24369,
    "per 10,000": 13.5417949,
  },
  {
    "community area": "fuller park",
    homicides: 4,
    pop: 2567,
    "per 10,000": 15.5823919,
  },
  {
    "community area": "gage park",
    homicides: 8,
    pop: 39540,
    "per 10,000": 2.023267577,
  },
  {
    "community area": "garfield ridge",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 35439,
    "per 10,000": 0.5643500099,
  },
  {
    "community area": "grand boulevard",
    homicides: 14,
    pop: 24589,
    "per 10,000": 5.693602831,
  },
  {
    "community area": "greater grand crossing",
    homicides: 40,
    pop: 31471,
    "per 10,000": 12.71011407,
  },
  {
    "community area": "hegewisch",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 10027,
    "per 10,000": 0.9973072704,
  },
  {
    "community area": "hermosa",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 24062,
    "per 10,000": 1.246779154,
  },
  {
    "community area": "humboldt park",
    homicides: 34,
    pop: 54165,
    "per 10,000": 6.277116219,
  },
  {
    "community area": "hyde park",
    homicides: 5,
    pop: 29456,
    "per 10,000": 1.69744704,
  },
  {
    "community area": "irving park",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 51940,
    "per 10,000": 0.1925298421,
  },
  {
    "community area": "kenwood",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 19116,
    "per 10,000": 1.046243984,
  },
  {
    "community area": "lake view",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 103050,
    "per 10,000": 0.09704027171,
  },
  {
    "community area": "lincoln square",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 40494,
    "per 10,000": 0.4939003309,
  },
  {
    "community area": "logan square",
    homicides: 7,
    pop: 71665,
    "per 10,000": 0.9767669016,
  },
  {
    "community area": "loop",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 42298,
    "per 10,000": 0.7092533926,
  },
  {
    "community area": "lower west side",
    homicides: 11,
    pop: 33751,
    "per 10,000": 3.259162691,
  },
  {
    "community area": "mckinley park",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 15923,
    "per 10,000": 1.884067073,
  },
  {
    "community area": "morgan park",
    homicides: 4,
    pop: 21186,
    "per 10,000": 1.888039271,
  },
  {
    "community area": "near north side",
    homicides: 8,
    pop: 105481,
    "per 10,000": 0.7584304282,
  },
  {
    "community area": "near south side",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 28795,
    "per 10,000": 0.6945650287,
  },
  {
    "community area": "near west side",
    homicides: 20,
    pop: 67881,
    "per 10,000": 2.946332553,
  },
  {
    "community area": "new city",
    homicides: 15,
    pop: 43628,
    "per 10,000": 3.43815898,
  },
  {
    "community area": "north center",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 35114,
    "per 10,000": 0.2847866948,
  },
  {
    "community area": "north lawndale",
    homicides: 44,
    pop: 34794,
    "per 10,000": 12.64585848,
  },
  {
    "community area": "north park",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 17559,
    "per 10,000": 1.139017028,
  },
  {
    "community area": "oakland",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 6799,
    "per 10,000": 4.41241359,
  },
  {
    "community area": "portage park",
    homicides: 3,
    pop: 63020,
    "per 10,000": 0.4760393526,
  },
  {
    "community area": "pullman",
    homicides: 6,
    pop: 6820,
    "per 10,000": 8.797653959,
  },
  {
    "community area": "riverdale",
    homicides: 5,
    pop: 7262,
    "per 10,000": 6.885155605,
  },
  {
    "community area": "rogers park",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 55628,
    "per 10,000": 0.3595311714,
  },
  {
    "community area": "roseland",
    homicides: 26,
    pop: 38816,
    "per 10,000": 6.698268755,
  },
  {
    "community area": "south chicago",
    homicides: 11,
    pop: 27300,
    "per 10,000": 4.029304029,
  },
  {
    "community area": "south deering",
    homicides: 6,
    pop: 14105,
    "per 10,000": 4.253810705,
  },
  {
    "community area": "south lawndale",
    homicides: 20,
    pop: 71399,
    "per 10,000": 2.80115968,
  },
  {
    "community area": "south shore",
    homicides: 39,
    pop: 53971,
    "per 10,000": 7.226102907,
  },
  {
    "community area": "uptown",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 57182,
    "per 10,000": 0.3497604141,
  },
  {
    "community area": "washington heights",
    homicides: 13,
    pop: 25065,
    "per 10,000": 5.186515061,
  },
  {
    "community area": "washington park",
    homicides: 8,
    pop: 12707,
    "per 10,000": 6.295742504,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west elsdon",
    homicides: 1,
    pop: 18394,
    "per 10,000": 0.5436555398,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west englewood",
    homicides: 21,
    pop: 29647,
    "per 10,000": 7.083347388,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west garfield park",
    homicides: 38,
    pop: 17433,
    "per 10,000": 21.79773992,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west lawn",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 33662,
    "per 10,000": 0.5941417622,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west pullman",
    homicides: 37,
    pop: 26104,
    "per 10,000": 14.17407294,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west ridge",
    homicides: 2,
    pop: 77122,
    "per 10,000": 0.2593293742,
  },
  {
    "community area": "west town",
    homicides: 10,
    pop: 87781,
    "per 10,000": 1.139198688,
  },
  {
    "community area": "woodlawn",
    homicides: 17,
    pop: 24425,
    "per 10,000": 6.960081883,
  },
];

If you want it multiplied by 10, you can do that in your javascript console, e.g: (or you could format it more csv-like if you want to put things in a spreadsheet).

out = "";
for (const area of communityArea_data) { out += area["community area"] + ":" + 10*(area["per 10,000"]) + "\n"; }
"albany park:4.13257294
archer heights:14.08847563
armour square:35.99712023
ashburn:12.16604214
auburn gresham:86.90226837
austin:73.5316963
avalon park:74.0114189
avondale:8.27426428
belmont cragin:15.361769679999998
bridgeport:5.934365913000001
brighton park:19.97647216
calumet heights:22.921760390000003
chatham:78.83948281
chicago lawn:41.12209687
douglas:34.49805332
dunning:6.952974714
east garfield park:160.0640256
east side:9.20640766
edgewater:1.776325139
englewood:135.417949
fuller park:155.823919
gage park:20.23267577
garfield ridge:5.643500099
grand boulevard:56.93602831
greater grand crossing:127.1011407
hegewisch:9.973072704
hermosa:12.46779154
humboldt park:62.77116219
hyde park:16.974470399999998
irving park:1.925298421
kenwood:10.46243984
lake view:0.9704027171
lincoln square:4.939003309
logan square:9.767669016
loop:7.092533926
lower west side:32.591626909999995
mckinley park:18.84067073
morgan park:18.88039271
near north side:7.584304282
near south side:6.945650287
near west side:29.46332553
new city:34.3815898
north center:2.847866948
north lawndale:126.4585848
north park:11.39017028
oakland:44.1241359
portage park:4.7603935260000005
pullman:87.97653959
riverdale:68.85155605
rogers park:3.595311714
roseland:66.98268755
south chicago:40.29304029000001
south deering:42.53810705
south lawndale:28.0115968
south shore:72.26102906999999
uptown:3.497604141
washington heights:51.86515061
washington park:62.95742504
west elsdon:5.436555398
west englewood:70.83347388
west garfield park:217.9773992
west lawn:5.941417622
west pullman:141.7407294
west ridge:2.593293742
west town:11.391986880000001
woodlawn:69.60081883

Excellent! Thank you!

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

Excellent! Thank you!

If you count the community areas... there are 11 missing, presumably because they had no homicides. I'm not sure if this is using 2020 Census population, but assuming it is and assigning the missing population a rate of 0, here is a histogram of population by 2021 homicide rate in Chicago:



Of course there are tons of caveats (a homicide in a community area does not necessarily involve perps or victims from that area, particularly in the central areas, and of course perps and victims can be from outside the city entirely...), but 1/4 of the population lives in areas with rates under 4/100,000 and half the population lives in areas with rates under 12/100,000 (my bins are 4 wide, if it's not obvious...). Not to defend the absurd amount of gun violence in the city, and it would be interesting to see a histogram for other cities where it makes sense as well (Philly? Houston? Dallas?).

[edale]

While it's true that Chicago's homicide rate is lower than a number of US cities, it also has the greatest number of murders in absolute numbers of any US city, and it's not even close. Chicago had over 800 murders in 2021. New York and LA hovered around 400, for comparison with the other bonafide big US cities. That's pretty astounding. I think it's hard to argue a city like Cleveland, which has a homicide rate higher than Chicago but 'only' had 165 murders in 2021, is more dangerous than a city that had 800 murders.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by edale

I think it's hard to argue a city like Cleveland, which has a homicide rate higher than Chicago but 'only' had 165 murders in 2021, is more dangerous than a city that had 800 murders.

it's not hard to argue that all.

on a per capita basis, it's just factually true.

the city of chicago is 7.4x bigger than the city of cleveland (2,746,388 vs. 372,624).



but for like the 1 millionth time now, comparing cities on this measure using city proper numbers is very apples to oranges.

"per 100K MSA homicide rate" is a FAR more meaningful metric for comparison.

and we almost never get that because the "journalists" who create these most dangerous listicles are usually lazy and/or stupid.