29M annual trips between LA - SF sounds reasonable. By 2040, California's population should grow by at least 15M more people (population growth as been 400,000 - 500,000 per year for the past decade). Ridership on Amtrak increased by more than five percent last year, setting a ridership record. As CA's metro regions continue to build their local transit and commuter rail networks, this will provide an important feeder system. High speed rail will travel between 2-3 times faster than the current Acela trains in the Northeast. And either the price of gas will be significantly more two decades from now or if there is a great expansion of plug-in hybrid vehicles, the highways will be far more congested as California continues to growth. Both will increase the relative attractiveness of high speed rail compared with automobiles.
The estimate provided in this article is only for 2040. Phase I of this investment is suppose to be completed around 2030. It will have a useful life of at least 50-60 years. It is entirely reasonable to expect that fast, efficient, high speed rail will be able to attract 30M annual passengers between the Bay Area - Los Angeles by 2070 - 2080.
Officials stand by high-speed rail estimate
By Tim Sheehan
Fresno Bee
Saturday, Feb. 18, 2012
"State rail officials are defending as reasonable their estimates that passengers will take at least 29 million trips a year on high-speed trains between San Francisco and Los Angeles by 2040.
In car-loving California, state High-Speed Rail Authority board members say, it will take only a small share of the millions of trips now being made by car and airplane to switch to trains to make the project profitable.
"If you look at the long-term projections for rides in this state," said Michael Rossi, an authority board member and former vice president of Bank of America, "we only need less than 3% total ride changes [to high-speed trains] from cars and aviation to break even, and more of that will come from cars than aviation..."
http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/02/18/...igh-speed.html