AUSTIN | Transportation Updates - Page 452

dilliam · #**9021** Posted **Apr 27, 2023, 3:52 AM**

This thing will get built one way or another.

ATX2030 · #**9022** Posted **Apr 27, 2023, 8:21 PM**

New Project Connect renderings feature light rail buildout opportunities in the future

by: Kelsey Thompson

Posted: Apr 27, 2023 / 01:51 PM CDT

Updated: Apr 27, 2023 / 01:51 PM CDT

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/aust...in-the-future/

freerover · #**9023** Posted **Apr 27, 2023, 9:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATX2030

New Project Connect renderings feature light rail buildout opportunities in the future

by: Kelsey Thompson

Posted: Apr 27, 2023 / 01:51 PM CDT

Updated: Apr 27, 2023 / 01:51 PM CDT

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/aust...in-the-future/

Someone should explain to KXAN what a "rendering" is.

ATX2030 · #**9024** Posted **Apr 28, 2023, 3:52 PM**

Some Project Connect cost per mile analysis by Julio Gonzalez Altamirano

https://twitter.com/juliogatx/status...Cz8Zqn9-wtAAAA

Novacek · #**9025** Posted **Apr 28, 2023, 4:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATX2030

Some Project Connect cost per mile analysis by Julio Gonzalez Altamirano

https://twitter.com/juliogatx/status...Cz8Zqn9-wtAAAA

"oranges to tangerines" is being generous.

He's comparing systems built more than a decade ago. Builds in a low interest/low financing cost environment to high. Extensions to initial systems (which are more expensive due to needing the initial rolling stock, maintenance yard, and building in the most expensive central part of the city).

There's an attempt to apply an "inflation" modifier, but no explanation for the source or magnitude of that. Looks like it may just be CPI, not actual construction/land costs. Seems to be a 27% increase from 2014 to 2023, which seems low.

And then of course, Austin isn't constructing in 2023, and he's totally leaving out that additional multiplier.

Novacek · #**9026** Posted **Apr 28, 2023, 4:30 PM**

Plus I'm going to publicly call out/shame Julio Gonzalez Altamirano for blocking me for pointing out his mistakes

https://twitter.com/MattNovacek/stat...47351841206272

(which he still never corrected)

ATX2030 · #**9027** Posted **Apr 28, 2023, 5:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Novacek

"oranges to tangerines" is being generous.

He's comparing systems built more than a decade ago. Builds in a low interest/low financing cost environment to high. Extensions to initial systems (which are more expensive due to needing the initial rolling stock, maintenance yard, and building in the most expensive central part of the city).

There's an attempt to apply an "inflation" modifier, but no explanation for the source or magnitude of that. Looks like it may just be CPI, not actual construction/land costs. Seems to be a 27% increase from 2014 to 2023, which seems low.

And then of course, Austin isn't constructing in 2023, and he's totally leaving out that additional multiplier.

Altamirano is estimating 350-500m per mile. What is your estimate per mile for those two lines? Hopefully it's significantly lower than his!

Novacek · #**9028** Posted **Apr 28, 2023, 5:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATX2030

Altamirano is estimating 350-500m per mile. What is your estimate per mile for those two lines? Hopefully it's significantly lower than his!

That isn't his estimate, those are just CapMetro's numbers straight (~10 mile system, 5B including contingency, 3.5B without).

The issue is the comparisons of those numbers to some extension built 10-15 years ago when both inflation and interest rates were near 0.

freerover · #**9029** Posted **Apr 28, 2023, 5:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Novacek

Plus I'm going to publicly call out/shame Julio Gonzalez Altamirano for blocking me for pointing out his mistakes

https://twitter.com/MattNovacek/stat...47351841206272

(which he still never corrected)

Yea he’s really pissy.

ATX2030 · #**9030** Posted **Apr 28, 2023, 6:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Novacek

That isn't his estimate, those are just CapMetro's numbers straight (~10 mile system, 5B including contingency, 3.5B without).

The issue is the comparisons of those numbers to some extension built 10-15 years ago when both inflation and interest rates were near 0.

So ballpark what do you think it's gonna cost per mile?

eguidry · #**9031** Posted **Apr 28, 2023, 6:26 PM**

Couple days old and didn't see it posted elsewhere but the McNeil Bus depot is gonna get 12 acres of solar canopies with pantograph charging for the electric busses. Looks neat!

https://www.kvue.com/article/tech/sc...4-0a7bc3156b24

Novacek · #**9032** Posted **Apr 28, 2023, 8:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATX2030

So ballpark what do you think it's gonna cost per mile?

I suspect CM’s numbers are close (it’s their job after all). With luck, they’re being slightly over conservative.

Anyone thinking you can get a brand new system for 200M (because of some suburban extension 10 years, when you could borrow money at basically 0 interest) is going to be disappointed.

ATX2030 · #**9033** Posted **Apr 29, 2023, 3:59 PM**

ATP Rider Estimates for the 5 proposed routes

https://www.atptx.org/docs/libraries...rsn=aeee5ed4_1

Looks like NLTC to Pleasant Valley would have the highest ridership using 2040 estimates.

ATX2030 · #**9034** Posted **May 2, 2023, 2:33 PM**

Austin nears decision on light-rail routes with public comment period closing tonight

KUT 90.5 | By Nathan Bernier
Published May 2, 2023 at 6:01 AM CDT

https://www.kut.org/transportation/2...losing-tonight

ATX2030 · #**9035** Posted **May 2, 2023, 7:38 PM**

Troxclair's billed passed the House now on to the Senate. Amended the bill to include loans as well.

Nathan Bernier
@KUTnathan

https://twitter.com/KUTnathan/status...63605646376961

paul78701 · #**9036** Posted **May 3, 2023, 3:38 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATX2030

ATP Rider Estimates for the 5 proposed routes

https://www.atptx.org/docs/libraries...rsn=aeee5ed4_1

Looks like NLTC to Pleasant Valley would have the highest ridership using 2040 estimates.

At the rate that ABIA traffic is increasing, I'm wondering if their model they may be underestimating trips to/from the potential airport stop? Hopefully, their model is properly taking that future air traffic into consideration.

H2O · #**9037** Posted **May 3, 2023, 7:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by paul78701

At the rate that ABIA traffic is increasing, I'm wondering if their model they may be underestimating trips to/from the potential airport stop? Hopefully, their model is properly taking that future air traffic into consideration.

If you read the report, it is clear they are attempting to take airport growth into account within the parameters of the FTA model, but even so, airport ridership pales in comparison to weekday ridership of other employment and residential centers.

paul78701 · #**9038** Posted **May 3, 2023, 9:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by H2O

If you read the report, it is clear they are attempting to take airport growth into account within the parameters of the FTA model, but even so, airport ridership pales in comparison to weekday ridership of other employment and residential centers.

I haven't read it. I never doubted that they're trying to model airport growth. I'm just wondering if they're able to really do so accurately (maybe a better word than "properly"). It seems that past estimates of future ABIA traffic have been way off.

I wasn't trying to compare the ABIA proposed route to the others. I was more wondering how it could affect future line extension decisions (assuming the ABIA route isn't initially chosen).

H2O · #**9039** Posted **May 4, 2023, 4:33 PM**

Austin no longer has minimum parking requirements! Hopefully developers and financiers will eventually come around to realizing that less parking can be better.

dilliam · #**9040** Posted **May 4, 2023, 5:14 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by H2O

Austin no longer has minimum parking requirements! Hopefully developers and financiers will eventually come around to realizing that less parking can be better.

I was at council this morning. You could definitely feel the excitement in the room. Passed 10-1 with bad Alter the only "no".