Is NYC the most geopolitically diverse city in the US?

[iheartthed]

^Wonder what part of Brooklyn all these people are supposedly fleeing from? It definitely seems back to pre-pandemic capacity to me, while in 2020 - 2021 I could see plenty of empty apartments from the street.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

^Wonder what part of Brooklyn all these people are supposedly fleeing from? It definitely seems back to pre-pandemic capacity to me, while in 2020 - 2021 I could see plenty of empty apartments from the street.

The annual estimates for NYC were off by around 400k last decade. So we'll probably have to wait until 2030, given the Census seems to be horrible at making estimates in urban areas.

At least where I am in Park Slope/Prospect Heights area, it has never seemed busier or more in-demand, and housing prices have never been higher. It also seems to be peak restaurant age, way surpassing pre-pandemic.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The annual estimates for NYC were off by around 400k last decade. So we'll probably have to wait until 2030, given the Census seems to be horrible at making estimates in urban areas.

At least where I am in Park Slope/Prospect Heights area, it has never seemed busier or more in-demand, and housing prices have never been higher. It also seems to be peak restaurant age, way surpassing pre-pandemic.

Yeah, the only thing that still feels well below normal are morning and evening commuting patterns... particularly in the morning. Car traffic doesn't seem nearly as bad as it was before the pandemic, and the subways are rarely more than 70% capacity, versus constantly being near 100% in the before times.

Before the pandemic the C train was constantly over capacity during rush hour. It is typically an 8-car train vs the normal 10-car trains on most other lines, but it was so over capacity from all the new housing and people moving into the area that the MTA was planning to permanently make it a 10-car train. They might be able to put that off another decade if the current commuting patterns hold.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The annual estimates for NYC were off by around 400k last decade. So we'll probably have to wait until 2030, given the Census seems to be horrible at making estimates in urban areas.

For good quality data, sometimes you just have to wait.

[Docere]

I guess this is NYC-related.

Here's an urban legend that I do not believe: the claim that 100 million Americans can trace an ancestor to an immigrant who arrived at Ellis Island. Even the National Park Service says this!

That's about 1/3 of the US population, and more than half the white population.

Italians, Jews and Slavs made up the majority of the immigrants that passed through, and I doubt more than 10% of Americans are of these backgrounds.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Docere

I guess this is NYC-related.

Here's an urban legend that I do not believe: the claim that 100 million Americans can trace an ancestor to an immigrant who arrived at Ellis Island. Even the National Park Service says this!

That's about 1/3 of the US population, and more than half the white population.

Italians, Jews and Slavs made up the majority of the immigrants that passed through, and I doubt more than 10% of Americans are of these backgrounds.

A large number of Germans and Irish came through Ellis Island too. The estimate sounds plausible to me.

[Docere]

From the 1930 census

Foreign-born Black population 54,754 (55.5% of US total)
Puerto Rican-born population 44,908 (85.1% of US mainland total)

Source: Ira Rosenwaike, Population History of New York City

[Docere]

Religion of youth (age 16-24) by origin, 1935

Total population Catholic 49%, Jewish 31%, Protestant 18%

Race: White Catholic 50%, Jewish 33%, Protestant 15%
Race: Black Protestant 85%, Catholic 13%

Country of origin: Austria Jewish 78%, Catholic 17%, Protestant 3%
Country of origin: Czech. Catholic 60%, Protestant 27%, Jewish 11%
Country of origin: England Protestant 57%, Catholic 29%, Jewish 13%
Country of origin: Germany Protestant 58%, Catholic 32%, Jewish 10%
Country of origin: Hungary Jewish 45%, Catholic 41%, Protestant 13%
Country of origin: Ireland Catholic 92%, Protestant 8%
Country of origin: Italy Catholic 98%, Protestant 1%
Country of origin: Poland Jewish 53%, Catholic 43%, Protestant 2%
Country of origin: Romania Jewish 96%
Country of origin: Russia Jewish 95%
Country of origin: Scandinavia Protestant 85%, Catholic 11%, Jewish 2%

[Crawford]

NYC has been a demographic outlier for a long time. 18% Protestant was weird for the U.S. in 1935.

German origin New Yorkers should have been a lot more than 10% Jewish, I think. Surprised it was so low, given the German prewar geographic boundaries. Maybe I'm conflating German Jewish identity and Jewish immigrants listing country of origin as Germany. In many cases, the question could have multiple answers, given shifting borders between Poland, Austria Hungary and Germany.

[Docere]

I'm guessing with Austria there's probably some confusion around border changes. Pre-WWI Austria contained a lot of Yiddish-speaking "eastern" Jews (in Galicia or Austrian Poland for example). In post-WWI Austria there were virtually no Jews outside of Vienna.

There was an older German component of NYC Jewry but they were dwarfed by Yiddish-speaking Eastern Europeans.

The Jewish population grew from 80,000 in 1880 to 1.6 million in 1920 (according to Wikipedia), a 20x increase.

[Docere]

You can really see the shift from pre-1965 (mostly European) to post-1965 (Caribbean, Latin American, some Asian) immigration in the 1980 census.

Foreign-born, New York SCSA (1980)

Total 2,752,119

Europe 1,258,582
Americas 927,215
Asia 338,726

Italy 316,767
Dominican Republic 144,289
Germany 140,833
Poland 127,884
Cuba 121,922
USSR 119,473
Jamaica 113,924
UK 89,530
Ireland 73,252
China 72,754
Colombia 67,761
Greece 63,098
Haiti 60,160
Ecuador 52,620
India 44,782
Trinidad and Tobago 43,902
Canada 41,851
Austria 41,664
Philippines 41,180
Portugal 40,052
Hungary 38,576
Guyana 36,577
Yugoslavia 33,413
Korea 30,396

Arrived after 1950

Europe 672,928
Americas 866,551
Asia 316,257

Europeans, arrived after 1950

Italy 174,326
Germany 62,122
USSR 54,844
Poland 53,705
Greece 52,072
UK 51,584
Portugal 37,391
Ireland 30,061
Yugoslavia 29,077
Hungary 21,425

[Docere]

Arrived after 1965

Europe 340,487
Americas 702,637
Asia 316,257

Top countries of birth, post-1965 immigrants (1980)

Dominican Republic 119,708
Jamaica 94,136
Italy 83,439
Cuba 74,266
Colombia 56,398
Haiti 52,481
China 48,855
Ecuador 46,452
India 42,473
USSR 40,773
Trinidad and Tobago 38,358
Philippines 37,369
Greece 36,873
Guyana 33,861
Portugal 32,226

[Docere]

The shift from Italian to Dominican...

Year of immigration, 1980

Italians

Before 1950 142,441
1950-1959 59,930
1960-1964 30,957
1965-1969 38,699
1970-1974 32,116
1975-1980 12,624

Dominicans

Before 1950 2,430
1950-1959 4,939
1960-1964 17,212
1965-1969 35,917
1970-1974 37,960
1975-1980 45,831

[Crawford]

I believe Dominicans are now the largest Hispanic group in the NYC metro, surpassing Puerto Ricans. In any case, they're one of the most prominent local ethnic groups, which is notable in that their numbers are small almost anywhere else in the U.S. You find Dominicans northwards into Mass and westwards into Eastern PA, and a bit in FL, and that's about it. And most of them probably have roots in NYC.

A lot of small, working class towns in a 100+ mile radius of NYC have a growing Dominican presence. Old mill towns in MA, or old mining towns in PA.

[Docere]

58% of Dominican Americans live in the NYC MSA. 78% live in the Northeast.

[Docere]

Latino communities, 2021

Dominican 1,194,039
Puerto Rican 1,088,971
Mexican 578,420
Ecuadorian 411,113
Colombian 292,967
Salvadoran 259,211
Cuban 150,233

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I believe Dominicans are now the largest Hispanic group in the NYC metro, surpassing Puerto Ricans. In any case, they're one of the most prominent local ethnic groups, which is notable in that their numbers are small almost anywhere else in the U.S. You find Dominicans northwards into Mass and westwards into Eastern PA, and a bit in FL, and that's about it. And most of them probably have roots in NYC.

I think Dominicans are the majority in NYC but Puerto Ricans are still the majority in NY Metro.

Originally Posted by Docere

Latino communities, 2021

Dominican 1,194,039
Puerto Rican 1,088,971
Mexican 578,420
Ecuadorian 411,113
Colombian 292,967
Salvadoran 259,211
Cuban 150,233

Is that for New York City or metro?

[Docere]

The MSA. Here's the five largest Latino groups in NYC.

NYC

Dominican 761,333
Puerto Rican 568.780
Mexican 327,555
Ecuadorian 184,560
Colombian 100,495

[Docere]

I remember reading in the World Book encyclopedia as a kid that NYC had five ethnic groups - Blacks, Jews, Italians, Puerto Ricans and Irish - that made up about 80% of the population of the city.

That was probably true until around 1980 or so.

Glazer and Moynihan also focused on these five groups in their very famous book about ethnicity in NYC, Beyond the Melting Pot.

[Docere]

Today, Dominicans and Chinese would be added as major ethnic groups in NYC. Even if the Irish stay on the list, we're probably at less than two-thirds with seven groups.

There's likely more South Asians than Irish Americans in the five boroughs at this point.