Combined, Washington-Baltimore now outsizes Chicago as America’s 3rd largest CSA

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by nito

There is neither the frequency, capacity or speed to make commuting between Philadelphia and New York viable outside of a handful of people.

it seems pretty untenable for most daily commuters, but with hybrid work models now becoming more normal, it can probably work pretty well for people who only need to be up in the head office in manhattan one or two days per week for face to face meetings.

but then that leads right back into my tired mantra of "what does commuting mean these days?"

is someone who lives in the philly but only goes up to NYC once a week and WFH's the other 4 days really a commuter?

might we need some new methods to define and delineate what constitutes a "metro area" beyond the old commuter percentage metric?

[Gantz]

Originally Posted by nito

There is only one Acela service that gets into New York before 0900 (the 0732 from Philadelphia); a total of 10 trains a day with the fastest Acela service being the 1040 from Philadelphia (69mins), all other services make the journey in 74-78mins. There is neither the frequency, capacity or speed to make commuting between Philadelphia and New York viable outside of a handful of people.

The people who commute into Philly usually drive, and they live on the NJ side of NYC metro and vice versa. I doubt many people commute between downtowns, as most people don't live in downtowns themselves anyway. Some 9 million people reside between Philly and NYC suburbs out of which about 7 million reside directly in the Philly-NYC corridor outside city limits.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by nito

There is only one Acela service that gets into New York before 0900 (the 0732 from Philadelphia); a total of 10 trains a day with the fastest Acela service being the 1040 from Philadelphia (69mins), all other services make the journey in 74-78mins. There is neither the frequency, capacity or speed to make commuting between Philadelphia and New York viable outside of a handful of people.

There are four scheduled Amtrak trains that arrive in NYC between 7am and 9am (well 9:05am) from Philadelphia. Pre-COVID there were six trains before 9am. The Acela isn't faster than any of the other Amtrak trains between NYC and Philadelphia (Northeast Regional and Keystone) because of the rail traffic congestion on the Northeast Corridor rail line.

[Antares41]

Originally Posted by Gantz

Some 9 million people reside between Philly and NYC suburbs out of which about 7 million reside directly in the Philly-NYC corridor outside city limits.

That a lot of people residing in the Jersey portion between Philly and NYC; obviously bigger than several states. Seem to be a no-brainer that the magnitude of people (numbers not percentages) commuting back in forth between the so-call fringes of the two metro is huge. Are they separate markets, yes, but the intersection between the two markets has to be very significant.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by Antares41

That a lot of people residing in the Jersey portion between Philly and NYC; obviously bigger than several states. Seem to be a no-brainer that the magnitude of people (numbers not percentages) commuting back in forth between the so-call fringes of the two metro is huge. Are they separate markets, yes, but the intersection between the two markets has to be very significant.

This is especially true in Central NJ, I have friend who lives in Princeton, NJ, commutes to Hudson Yards and his wife commutes to Center City Philly.

[nito]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

it seems pretty untenable for most daily commuters, but with hybrid work models now becoming more normal, it can probably work pretty well for people who only need to be up in the head office in manhattan one or two days per week for face to face meetings.

but then that leads right back into my tired mantra of "what does commuting mean these days?"

is someone who lives in the philly but only goes up to NYC once a week and WFH's the other 4 days really a commuter?

might we need some new methods to define and delineate what constitutes a "metro area" beyond the old commuter percentage metric?

Extreme commuting existed before pre-pandemic, but it was a balancing act between fast and frequent services, lower cost housing and the time and cost penalty of travelling. Hybrid working is here to stay, although in the UK there has definitely been a trend back to the office with National Rail, London Buses and London Underground running at 94%, 84% and 77% of pre-pandemic levels.

Going forward, I suspect a definition of a commuter will be someone that is in the office at least 3 or more days a week.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There are four scheduled Amtrak trains that arrive in NYC between 7am and 9am (well 9:05am) from Philadelphia. Pre-COVID there were six trains before 9am. The Acela isn't faster than any of the other Amtrak trains between NYC and Philadelphia (Northeast Regional and Keystone) because of the rail traffic congestion on the Northeast Corridor rail line.

Six train arrivals before 0900 pre-pandemic is a lot better, but would still be stretching reality. Pre-pandemic, there were 6tph from Birmingham to London, but you wouldn’t have people claiming that the two cities were the same market despite higher connectivity. That doesn’t mean that closer integration isn’t a future possibility, but it would require significant investment along the Northeast Corridor.

HS2 has curious potential to breaking that barrier; the journey time between London and Birmingham will reduce to 45mins, and enable 11tph (of which 3tph are HS2) between the two cities. HS2 estimates annual ridership of 53mn between London and Birmingham, which is quite significant when you consider Metro-North Railroad pre-pandemic had ridership of 86mn.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Gantz

The people who commute into Philly usually drive, and they live on the NJ side of NYC metro and vice versa. I doubt many people commute between downtowns, as most people don't live in downtowns themselves anyway. Some 9 million people reside between Philly and NYC suburbs out of which about 7 million reside directly in the Philly-NYC corridor outside city limits.

I commute from Philly to NYC. I take the Amtrak Keystone Express from Cornwells Heights (lower Bucks County) instead of 30th Street and I get to Newark Penn in 48 minutes. There, I walk across the platform to the PATH and it gets me to my office in the Oculus 22 minutes later. That's 70 minutes of train time.

I don't have to do it every day but I consistently do it 2 days a week. Totally manageable.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by nito

Six train arrivals before 0900 pre-pandemic is a lot better, but would still be stretching reality. Pre-pandemic, there were 6tph from Birmingham to London, but you wouldn’t have people claiming that the two cities were the same market despite higher connectivity. That doesn’t mean that closer integration isn’t a future possibility, but it would require significant investment along the Northeast Corridor.

HS2 has curious potential to breaking that barrier; the journey time between London and Birmingham will reduce to 45mins, and enable 11tph (of which 3tph are HS2) between the two cities. HS2 estimates annual ridership of 53mn between London and Birmingham, which is quite significant when you consider Metro-North Railroad pre-pandemic had ridership of 86mn.

In addition, there are 4 SEPTA+NJ Transit journeys that arrive between 6am and 9:30. Then there's also probably a privately operated bus between Philadelphia and Manhattan leaving every 5 minutes during rush hour.

Anyway, I'm not saying that Philadelphia itself is a bedroom community of Manhattan, which it's clearly not. However, these two city pairs are very well integrated by transit. And there's also a substantial overlap in the commuting sheds of the metro areas.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

I commute from Philly to NYC. I take the Amtrak Keystone Express from Cornwells Heights (lower Bucks County) instead of 30th Street and I get to Newark Penn in 48 minutes. There, I walk across the platform to the PATH and it gets me to my office in the Oculus 22 minutes later. That's 70 minutes of train time.

I don't have to do it every day but I consistently do it 2 days a week. Totally manageable.

you're a textbook example of the type of 1 - 2 days/week in-office commuter that i was talking about.

70 minutes of train time each way 5 days/week would be too much for most people, i would think.

[Tom In Chicago]

^A good friend of mine works for Google down here in the city and lives in Caledonia, Wisconsin (Racine County). . . takes the Amtrak from Sturtevant two to three times a week. . . not sure what the door to door commute is time wise, but it's manageable. . .

. . .

[JManc]

If I only had to come in the office 1-2 days a week, I'd live in San Francisco proper which is about an hour each way depending on traffic. Otherwise, I'm going to live close by.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

you're a textbook example of the type of 1 - 2 days/week in-office commuter that i was talking about.

70 minutes of train time each way 5 days/week would be too much for most people, i would think.

Yeah. I moved here from Brooklyn during the pandemic wouldn't have been able to do it any other way. I actually love it because it keeps me anchored in NY still, professionally, but I get to come home to my riverfront 1900 sf house with 3 bedrooms and a garage that would cost easily 4 times what I paid for it in NYC.

Anyways, I digress.

On an interesting note, the hybrid model has allowed my company to increase the radius of what it considers "local". It now sets a 90 mile radius when reaching out to applicants for hybrid roles, which effectively extends the definition of local to New Haven north of NYC and Philadelphia south of NYC.

We now have 6 employees based in Philadelphia. Prior to the pandemic the number was 0. This is out of an HQ headcount of about 120. Even better, they're on the NY pay scale because they're defined as local and expected to be in the office weekly. That being said, hybrid has been defined as 2 days a week for us but tbh so long as you're there for important meetings no one is keeping track. Some weeks its 0 days in the office and others its 3. Time of year varies as well.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by nito

There is only one Acela service that gets into New York before 0900 (the 0732 from Philadelphia); a total of 10 trains a day with the fastest Acela service being the 1040 from Philadelphia (69mins), all other services make the journey in 74-78mins. There is neither the frequency, capacity or speed to make commuting between Philadelphia and New York viable outside of a handful of people.

There is another train called the Keystone Express that effectively mimics the Acela but on smaller engine trains. Most of its trains (with a few exceptions) only stop in Trenton and Newark before pulling into Penn Station. I would argue its the train most Philadelphians take who commute to NYC because it's substantially cheaper than the Acela but only 10 or so minutes slower.

[Crawford]

It would be nice if NJT and SEPTA worked closer together. Yeah, their schedules align, and they meet in Trenton (and hopefully West Trenton, one day, if NJT finally completes that line, as has been promised for decades), but it would be great if there were co-branded, thru-running express trains from NYP to 30th Street.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Crawford

It would be nice if NJT and SEPTA worked closer together. Yeah, their schedules align, and they meet in Trenton (and hopefully West Trenton, one day, if NJT finally completes that line, as has been promised for decades), but it would be great if there were co-branded, thru-running express trains from NYP to 30th Street.

Yeah. In a similar vein, there's talk of MARC (Maryland Area Rapid Transit Corp) extending to Newark DE, which would provide direct local connection to Baltimore and DC from Septa. I think it currently stops in Perryville MD (which is 10 or 15 miles from Newark).

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

^A good friend of mine works for Google down here in the city and lives in Caledonia, Wisconsin (Racine County). . . takes the Amtrak from Sturtevant two to three times a week. . . not sure what the door to door commute is time wise, but it's manageable. . .
.

Yeah, I had a coworker years ago here in Chicago whose wife worked for an organization based up in Milwaukee.

She commuted up to her job on Amtrak Hiawatha.

But she only had to do it once or twice a week most weeks; she was an early hybrid model adopter.

[Antares41]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

On an interesting note, the hybrid model has allowed my company to increase the radius of what it considers "local". It now sets a 90 mile radius when reaching out to applicants for hybrid roles, which effectively extends the definition of local to New Haven north of NYC and Philadelphia south of NYC.
We now have 6 employees based in Philadelphia. Prior to the pandemic the number was 0. This is out of an HQ headcount of about 120.

I would consider your story "Exhibit A" to the argument that the NY-Philly region is moving closer to some kind of entity that goes beyond two large labor markets in close proximity. I don't expect a newly defined CSA like Washington -Baltimore in the near future, but some new definition that recognizes the reality on the ground. By the way, I have two relatives that travel 100 miles several times a week to NY to work; it just not that rare any more. Their rational; 1) the affordability of housing, while, 2) maintaining their NYC salaries.

[EastSideHBG]

Originally Posted by Antares41

I would consider your story "Exhibit A" to the argument that the NY-Philly region is moving closer to some kind of entity that goes beyond two large labor markets in close proximity. I don't expect a newly defined CSA like Washington -Baltimore in the near future, but some new definition that recognizes the reality on the ground. By the way, I have two relatives that travel 100 miles several times a week to NY to work; it just not that rare any more. Their rational; 1) the affordability of housing, while, 2) maintaining their NYC salaries.

Time is a consideration also and people are realizing that 70 minutes on a train isn't much more than the 60+ they are already doing commuting within the metro and if the logistics aren't going to be much worse for them it's not that hard of a sell.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by EastSideHBG

Time is a consideration also and people are realizing that 70 minutes on a train isn't much more than the 60+ they are already doing commuting within the metro and if the logistics aren't going to be much worse for them it's not that hard of a sell.

To me, 70 minutes of train time is insanity. If we assume 15 min to drive and park at a station, then 10-15 min walk once you're off the train, you're looking at over an hour and a half of commuting each way, over 3 hours round trip. That is a psychotic lifestyle, even for 2 - 3 times per week.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

To me, 70 minutes of train time is insanity. If we assume 15 min to drive and park at a station, then 10-15 min walk once you're off the train, you're looking at over an hour and a half of commuting each way, over 3 hours round trip. That is a psychotic lifestyle, even for 2 - 3 times per week.

You act like the alternative is a 5 minute walk to work.

For me, the alternative was a 10 minute walk to the subway followed usually by 50 minutes underground on the subway itself book ended by another 10 minutes to the office. The difference between my old commute from Brooklyn and my new commute from Philadelphia is less than 2 hours a week.

Everyone makes these assumptions, particularly about NY commutes. Unless you have the money to spend $7000 a month on a Tribeca apartment and you walk to work at your job in the financial district, then you're likely commuting 45-60 minutes door to door on the subway.