Combined, Washington-Baltimore now outsizes Chicago as America’s 3rd largest CSA

[mhays]

Originally Posted by Quixote

General perception and cultural differences aside, there's no logical argument to be made for keeping Washington and Baltimore separate if you're willing to group SF-SJ and Boston-Providence. DC shouldn't be "punished" because Baltimore has an older history and was the larger of the two up until the 2020 census, despite DC itself being a pre-war city and clearly the more prominent of the two going back to at least the FDR administration. Baltimore's airport code has been BWI since 1973 — basically since wide-body jetliners were first introduced — serves PG's County. And Anne Arundel and Howard Counties are well within the orbit of DC by virtue of geographic proximity, the farthest locales being only about 25 miles from the District as the crow flies.

Sure there is. SF/SJ is continuously urban. Wa/Bal isn't.

That's just for CSAs which have to follow standard rules.

Get beyond that, into job markets, media markets, culture, etc., and Wa/Bal is completely different.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

Sure there is. SF/SJ is continuously urban. Wa/Bal isn't.

If anything, I can more clearly detect the break between SF and SJ than I can between Baltimore and Washington. But I think both have equally strong arguments to be considered a single multi-polar MSA.

[ssiguy]

The thing that really stands out for me is how far and how fast Detroit has dropped in the rankings. As late as 1980 Detroit was the 5th largest metro in the US and now doesn't even crack the top 10 and continues to fall and by 2050 Detroit may not even be in the top 20.

[pdxtex]

CSAs seem murky. If were talking over lapping trade areas, the bay should also include Sacramento. Also the Detroit metro for all practical terms is 7 million people. That would include Windsor, Toledo and Lansing which sends commuters to SE Michigan every day. Also I'm not sure how to classify SE Florida. The cement doesn't end from Key Largo to Jupiter. What is that, 9 or 10 million?

[mhays]

I'd love to see this "break" between SF and SJ.

Start with the county line, which runs through a pretty dense area. But any idea would be great to hear.

Then there's the shared media market, shared sports team market, shared job market (with the largest cluster basically in the middle)...

[Cory]

Originally Posted by mhays

I'd love to see this "break" between SF and SJ.

Start with the county line, which runs through a pretty dense area. But any idea would be great to hear.

Then there's the shared media market, shared sports team market, shared job market (with the largest cluster basically in the middle)...

…and shared commuter rail

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

I'd love to see this "break" between SF and SJ.

Start with the county line, which runs through a pretty dense area. But any idea would be great to hear.

Then there's the shared media market, shared sports team market, shared job market (with the largest cluster basically in the middle)...

There feels like a clear break between SF and Silicon Valley on I-280 around here: https://goo.gl/maps/oTEsoigscMVUUo9X6

There's nothing resembling that between Baltimore and Washington. And you can also make all of those points about Baltimore and Washington. Even the shared media market, since as I stated above, the coverage of both markets largely overlap the same geographic area.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There feels like a clear break between SF and Silicon Valley on I-280 around here: https://goo.gl/maps/oTEsoigscMVUUo9X6

There's nothing resembling that between Baltimore and Washington.

https://www.google.com/maps/@39.1479...7i16384!8i8192

[lio45]

Also, the interstate isn't the correct metric. It could be located outside of urbanity (I-280 kinda is...) and it would be perfectly normal. In fact, a continuous urban area could well NOT even have an interstate going through it or even anywhere near it; see how irrelevant the interstate is to the argument.

Similarly, it's easier to find empty spots on I-95 than it is on US 1.

The emptiest area of the US 101 between SF and SJ looks like what? I'd compare that to US 1 in the Baltwash area.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by lio45

https://www.google.com/maps/@39.1479...7i16384!8i8192

You think that's similar to this? https://goo.gl/maps/pX8n44LmSapuZrpe7

[mhays]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There feels like a clear break between SF and Silicon Valley on I-280 around here: https://goo.gl/maps/oTEsoigscMVUUo9X6

That's funny! And extremely disengenuous.

Go a mile or two out of the hills, directly east: https://www.google.com/maps/@37.5329.../data=!3m1!1e3

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

That's funny! And extremely disengenuous.

Go a mile or two out of the hills, directly east: https://www.google.com/maps/@37.5329.../data=!3m1!1e3

What about it? You asked me to point to what feels like the break point between SF and SJ and I gave it to you lol. I was never arguing that these were completely distinct places.

[homebucket]

I'm not sure how showing screenshots of 280 is evidence that there is a break between SF and SJ. It's a north-south freeway that runs roughly parallel to the ridge of the Santa Cruz Mountains, bordering the fringes of mid-Peninsula development.

It's functionally the same concept as using this road as evidence there is a break between SF and SJ: https://goo.gl/maps/wyTEhUp1mtX77enA6. The Santa Cruz Mountains are permanent open space preserve, so it's functionally as developable as the Pacific Ocean.

[Cory]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

What about it? You asked me to point to what feels like the break point between SF and SJ and I gave it to you lol. I was never arguing that these were completely distinct places.

Smells like damage control. You’re better off saying the towns in Marin County and the North Bay are not part of the MSA or CSA if we’re talking about a break in development. That’s like if a highway went through the Everglades from Miami to get to Fort Lauderdale or Boca Raton and calling it a break between two metros.

[Crawford]

What's the point of this discussion? UAs, MSAs and CSAs have nothing to do with "break in development".

[JManc]

Originally Posted by mhays

I'd love to see this "break" between SF and SJ.

Start with the county line, which runs through a pretty dense area. But any idea would be great to hear.

Then there's the shared media market, shared sports team market, shared job market (with the largest cluster basically in the middle)...

Transit is only thing I can think of officially separating the two. SF area has BART, SJ has VTA though I have a card that works on everything in the Bay Area. I live in Fremont which is part of SF metro but am closer to SJ and go there more often. The 49'ers play in Santa Clara (near San Jose). I'm sure there are a of Sharks fans in SF.

[Cory]

Originally Posted by JManc

Transit is only thing I can think of officially separating the two. SF area has BART, SJ has VTA though I have a card that works on everything in the Bay Area. I live in Fremont which is part of SF metro but am closer to SJ and go there more often. The 49'ers play in Santa Clara (near San Jose). I'm sure there are a of Sharks fans in SF.

Caltrain connects from SF to SJ and hits almost every major employment center in between. It’s what makes living in SF and working in Silicon Valley somewhat doable although I’m sure there are still plenty that work from home now.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If anything, I can more clearly detect the break between SF and SJ than I can between Baltimore and Washington.

Huh? I have driven between DC and Baltimore at least 20 times and it is not like this at the border at all in my experience...

https://www.pond5.com/stock-footage/...ghway-101-sili

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The thing that really stands out for me is how far and how fast Detroit has dropped in the rankings. As late as 1980 Detroit was the 5th largest metro in the US and now doesn't even crack the top 10 and continues to fall and by 2050 Detroit may not even be in the top 20.

Detroit dropped to 12th in 2010 and kept its position in 2020.

I only see Seattle and Phoenix overtaking it. Minneapolis and Denver are too far away.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There feels like a clear break between SF and Silicon Valley on I-280 around here: https://goo.gl/maps/oTEsoigscMVUUo9X6

There's nothing resembling that between Baltimore and Washington. And you can also make all of those points about Baltimore and Washington. Even the shared media market, since as I stated above, the coverage of both markets largely overlap the same geographic area.

And two miles parallel to it: https://www.google.com/maps/@37.5166...7i16384!8i8192

This highway goes through a park. Central Park doesn't mean Midtown and Harlem are two separated urban areas.

It's pretty obvious San Francisco and San Jose are a single urban area. Ditto for Los Angeles and the Inland Empire.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by JManc

Transit is only thing I can think of officially separating the two. SF area has BART, SJ has VTA though I have a card that works on everything in the Bay Area. I live in Fremont which is part of SF metro but am closer to SJ and go there more often. The 49'ers play in Santa Clara (near San Jose). I'm sure there are a of Sharks fans in SF.

The Bay area has the most balkanized transit. Caltrain, BART, ACE, Muni, SamTrans,VTA, ACTransit, Contra Costa transit (or whatever it's called), Golden Gate transit, to name a few....