OMB 2020 Standards for Delineating Core Based Statistical Areas

Manitopiaaa · #1 Posted **Oct 16, 2021, 9:12 PM**

I don't believe these were shared back in July but OMB issued the 2020 MSA standards that will now be used by Census to determine 2023 MSA/CSA boundaries. Wanted to share since this is very in the weeds and took me a bit to find: https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...tistical-areas

Recommendation 1: Raise the minimum MSA core population threshold from 50,000 to 100,000.
OMB Decision: REJECTED. 50,000 will continue to be used through the 2020s.

Recommendation 2: Discontinue Updates to the NECTAs, NECTA Divisions, and Combined NECTAs.
OMB Decision: ACCEPTED. NECTAs, NECTA Divisions, and Combined NECTAs have been abolished.

Recommendation 3: Launch a research effort into delineating territorially exhaustive areas.
OMB Decision: ACCEPTED. Puerto Rico will no longer be treated as an "other" in MSA/CSA data, but will be fully brought into the CBSA data collection process.

Recommendation 4: Incorporate the results of the decade's first annual update review into the results of the decade's decennial census-based update.
OMB Decision: ACCEPTED. July 1, 2030 data will NOT be released before the 2030 Census results, as occurred last year when August 1, 2020 estimates were wildly off from April 1, 2020 Census counts released later.

Recommendation 5: Establish a Publicly Available Update Schedule.
OMB Decision: ACCEPTED.

Here is the official schedule:

Recommendation 6: Continue use of American Community Survey commuting data to measure intercounty connectivity.
OMB Decision: ACCEPTED, although commuting data, if telework becomes routine, could absolutely wreck CBSA boundaries, so OMB will convene a working group to see to what extent commuting data is still the best measure of connectivity.

Manitopiaaa · #2 Posted **Oct 16, 2021, 9:14 PM**

2010 Standards: https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...tistical-areas

2020 Standards: https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...tistical-areas

Steely Dan · #3 Posted **Oct 16, 2021, 9:22 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa

Recommendation 6: Continue use of American Community Survey commuting data to measure intercounty connectivity.
OMB Decision: ACCEPTED, although commuting data, if telework becomes routine, could absolutely wreck CBSA boundaries, so OMB will convene a working group to see to what extent commuting data is still the best measure of connectivity.

as a new soldier in the permanent WFH army, i've been wondering a lot about the bolded above.

Manitopiaaa · #4 Posted **Oct 16, 2021, 10:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

as a new soldier in the permanent WFH army, i've been wondering a lot about the bolded above.

Yeah, it's also unclear how it would work. If you commute from the Shenandoah Valley once a week to D.C. are you counted as part of the 15/25 cross-commuting interchange?

Do you have to commute 3 times a day?

If they adopt a 1 of 5 day standard, then MSAs could massively expand, as you have lots of rural counties where WFH DCers have been buying cottages (Rappahannock, Madison, Greene, Luray, Shenandoah Counties). It won't take many WFHers moving in to massively warp the commuting data.

Conversely, what happens if you're WFH permanently from a county that's not "central." Now you're no longer commuting between counties at all, so you're making it much harder for a county to stay in an MSA.

So how telework is counted could be the difference between MSAs massively expanding or potentially even contracting.

Steely Dan · #5 Posted **Oct 16, 2021, 10:16 PM**

^ time to just go back to the good old tried and true Urban Area definition of contiguous developed census tracts above a certain density threshold.

the "where" of where people work is only going to get more and more nebulous, and that ambiguity will make some of the supposed interconnectedness created by commuting less meaningful.

Thebestofeverything · #6 Posted **Oct 16, 2021, 11:58 PM**

Amen.

C. · #7 Posted **Nov 8, 2021, 2:11 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ time to just go back to the good old tried and true Urban Area definition of contiguous developed census tracts above a certain density threshold.

the "where" of where people work is only going to get more and more nebulous, and that ambiguity will make some of the supposed interconnectedness created by commuting less meaningful.

sentinel · #8 Posted **Nov 8, 2021, 2:51 PM**

I'm dumb, can someone please clarify what this means in lay terms? Will there be an increase in MSA populations across the country, or a decrease? Or will it vary place by place?

Steely Dan · #9 Posted **Nov 8, 2021, 3:24 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by sentinel

I'm dumb, can someone please clarify what this means in lay terms? Will there be an increase in MSA populations across the country, or a decrease? Or will it vary place by place?

until the OMB sorts out what the impacts of WFH will be on commuting rates (along with defining what "commuting" even means in our new post-covid world), i don't think anyone knows just exactly what it will mean.

it's very much a "wait and see" situation at the moment.