On the one hand, I'm destroyed that my beloved Frederick, MD, is becoming so unaffordable and I missed my chance to buy in. On the other, maybe this causes the price of homes to collapse in DC proper and I can snag a bargain there. With a $500k pre-approval, I'm in that sweet spot of making too little to afford a nice house in Washington, but making too much that I'm not resigned to living 50+ miles away. Unfortunately, there's no beautiful historic towns within 25 miles of D.C. other than Alexandria (even more overpriced than D.C. itself), so it's a devil's choice between overpriced D.C. or far-out Annapolis, Frederick, or less historic Manassas, all of which require a car and tons of traffic
The Pandemic Hit Cities Hard, but Especially Washington, D.C.
By Julie Bykowicz and Paul Overberg
Frederick, Maryland
Washington, D.C., underwent one of the most dramatic urban revivals of any U.S. city during the past two decades. Newcomers poured in, businesses expanded and developers transformed the area with high-end condos, entertainment and shopping.
The pandemic and rising housing prices began cooling that growth. The city lost a net of nearly 19,000 households to moves in 2020, according to U.S. Postal Service permanent change-of-address data. That was more than every state in the U.S. except California, New York, Illinois and Massachusetts.
Like many other big cities, the district is grappling with how to stem the outflow of Americans seeking easier and more affordable lives. Unlike many big cities, it has a particular challenge that could spell trouble for the long term.
The 61-square-mile U.S. capital relies heavily on the federal government as its biggest employer—and officials have signaled that remote work is here to stay. That effect is trickling down to the legion of businesses in the government’s orbit, with some federal contractors, lobbyists and think tanks offering similar flexibility.
Residential changes have rippled across the region, with USPS data showing net loss to suburbs, which in turn have net outflows to exurbs. As in many other major cities, the district’s violent crime rate has risen during the pandemic, with 198 homicides last year, the highest number since 2004. City leaders are also contending with homeless encampments in tourist-dense areas like around Union Station.
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Washington gained 88,000 extra residents over the past decade, and had seemed poised for even more. Annual estimates by the Census Bureau—using birth, death and migration data—suggested that the district netted almost 100,000 people from 2010 to 2017 before growth slowed more recently. Its actual 2020 census count of about 690,000 fell 3% short of the bureau’s earlier estimates.
Between 2010 and 2020, the district’s non-Hispanic white population grew 25%, the highest rate of any of the nation’s top 30 cities. Its non-Hispanic Black population fell 6% during that time, a larger decline than most cities of its size.
Rising housing prices have drained away Black residents over the years, as landlords who had rented to mostly Black families sold properties at a premium, often to white residents or to developers trying to attract higher-income buyers, also primarily white, said Jason Richardson, director of research at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.
Washington’s median price of a detached home sold in June was nearly $1.3 million, 59% higher than a decade earlier, while a condo was $530,000, a 47% jump in 10 years, according to regional real-estate data firm Bright MLS.
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Before the pandemic, the district saw its population swell more than nearly any other city during an average weekday, according to cellphone data. On March 12, 2020, before widespread shutdowns, more than 1 million unique cellphones pinged within its boundaries, city officials said, or roughly 400,000 more than the number of adult residents.
While commuters and tourists haven’t fully returned, their numbers are creeping back up toward pre-pandemic levels, said John Falcicchio, deputy mayor for planning and economic development.
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People are pushing farther out. Stafford and Loudoun counties in Virginia and Frederick County in Maryland saw the strongest area population growth rates, almost 2%, as well as the highest net migration rates per 1,000 people last year, according to a study by the D.C. Policy Center.
Tom and Tara Zachariah, both 35, spent the early part of the pandemic stepping around their baby son’s giant playpen in an 900-square-foot apartment on the district’s recently developed southwest waterfront. They arranged their work laptops Battleship-style at the dining room table.
High real-estate prices in and around the city drove them 53 miles away to Frederick, Md., a small city where they bought a 2,100-square-foot townhouse.
Mr. Zachariah’s job as a business technology strategist at International Business Machines Corp. can be done completely remotely, and Ms. Zachariah commutes to the district about three days a week for an executive job she recently started at Adfero, a communications firm in the district.
They said their housing costs dropped from about $3,500 a month to $3,000 a month in Frederick, and they’ll save $12,000 a year in daycare for their 1-year-old.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/washing...rk-11632753953
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