Toronto: Growth Forecast: 14.8M people in 2051

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by Crawford

But it has enriched a lot of Canadian households. We have family friends in very modest area of Etiobicoke, and they're sitting on a goldmine. That's their retirement and inheritance money. The old folks cash out and move elsewhere in Ontario, and maybe get a Florida condo.

Ya and they funnel the money back into the market in the form of their kid's first residence. I don't know many people my age (myself included) who own a condo without help from the parents.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

Ya and they funnel the money back into the market in the form of their kid's first residence. I don't know many people my age (myself included) who own a condo without help from the parents.

Right. Regardless of one's views on appropriate levels of immigration or whether there's a RE bubble, everyone likes more money, so there's a built-in constituency favoring the status quo.

Meanwhile my parents live in a very desirable, affluent area in Michigan and their inflation-adjusted property values have barely budged since purchase.

[bilbao58]

Toronto: Growth Forecast: 14.8M people in 2051

Wow! Millions more people for the rest of Canada to hate!

[ssiguy]

Wow. Millions more people who will have to be persuaded that there really is life west of Windsor.

[memph]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

I don't think so.

The area of Chicagoland is:

10,856 sq mi (28,120 km2) That's within +/- 10% of the GGH.

Yeah but probably 95% of Chicagoland's population lives in an area the size of the GTHA.

[memph]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

The projections are badly outdated, at least for *where* the growth is occurring. Toronto is sitting at about 3,000,000 today and is likely to be at around 3,400,000 by 2031. 3,400,000 is the 2051 projection. I wouldn’t be surprised if the city is pushing 4,000,000 at that point if current trends continue.

Comparatively Durham is supposed to skyrocket in population out of nowhere *any day now* according to the projections but it continues to putter along at about 1/2 the projected rate.

I agree with this. If people are gonna live in a highrise, they'd rather live somewhere more central like Toronto, or at least suburbs with relatively high housing costs (due to good location) like Mississauga or Southern York or Oakville... There's not much appetite for condos in Brampton, Newmarket or Durham, only for SFH, so I think they're overestimating how much growth those areas will experience.

But it would be interesting to think of what is Toronto's "capacity" as it were. will it start running out of room to continue growth as rapidly as it currently is once it crosses the 3 million mark? Or perhaps I should rather say... will Toronto be willing/able to make the changes in zoning and upgrades in public transit needed to accommodate continued rapid growth?

[Maldive]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Wow. Millions more people who will have to be persuaded that there really is life west of Windsor.

Kinda an out-dated cliche being exhumed there.

Pretty sure B.C. has demonstrated it doesn't much consider life east of its border with Alberta

But, as we inch towards the November 30 year anniversary of Hugh MacLennan's passing, maybe "Three Solitudes"* should be in the mix... or four or five.

(for US friends, the 1945 novel "Two Solitudes" riffed on the great divide -Quebec/French Canada and English Canada.)

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by memph

Yeah but probably 95% of Chicagoland's population lives in an area the size of the GTHA.

Yeah, the way that the US census bureau mashes up entire counties to create MSA's & CSA's leads to some absurdly bloated results when it comes to land areas.

Chicagoland's Urban Area population is 8.6 million people living upon 2,400 sq. miles of land. That gives an infinitely more accurate picture of what the true size of "Chicago" is. The other 1M people in the obnoxiously bloated chicago CSA (I think it's up to a ridiculous 17 counties now!!!) are sprinkled across the other 8,400 sq. miles. Roughly 80% or more of that remaining land is literally cornfields.

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by memph

But it would be interesting to think of what is Toronto's "capacity" as it were. will it start running out of room to continue growth as rapidly as it currently is once it crosses the 3 million mark? Or perhaps I should rather say... will Toronto be willing/able to make the changes in zoning and upgrades in public transit needed to accommodate continued rapid growth?

We've been dragging our feet with regards to transit during the last 10 years of rapid core city growth, dont know if that will change until things really hit a breaking point. At which point it will obviously be exponentially more expensive and time consuming.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by C.

For context, that's larger than Massachusetts.

It's a huge area but perhaps more context would help. Like the Los Angeles CSA, the Greater Golden Horseshoe takes in huge tracts of land that are relatively empty. It's based on municipal/political boundaries rather than where the people live. The purple bits are where the people are and the yellow 'bullets' represent major high density clusters. As one can see, you could carve off two-thirds of the geographical area and the overall population would only drop maybe 5-7%. Not only is the peach coloured area rural but almost all population growth going forward will go to the purple areas.

All of the CMAs except Brantford and Peterborough are connected by GO Transit, the area commuter rail system. Brantford and Peterborough are part of GO Transit but it's currently a bus.

Greater Golden Horseshoe: 9 CMAs

1. Toronto CMA
2. Hamilton CMA
3. Oshawa CMA
4. Kitchener - Waterloo CMA
5. Guelph CMA
6. Brantford CMA
7. St. Catharines - Niagara CMA
8. Barrie CMA
9. Peterborough CMA

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by memph

Yeah but probably 95% of Chicagoland's population lives in an area the size of the GTHA.

Quite right. Greater Toronto-Hamilton (GTHA) is roughly equivalent to Toronto CMA + Oshawa CMA + Toronto CMA or 7,680,502 on July 1st, 2019. That was an increase of 144,566 over the previous year. It's likely around 7,825,000 today. If things continue as before (demographic affects of COVID-19 is the big unknown) there will be 8,547,830 in Greater Toronto-Hamilton 5 years from now. 'Steely Dan' posted that there were 8.6 million in the Chicago urban area (it lost ~25,000 people last year). So by 2025 it may all be moot.

[MolsonExport]

for the "narrower" definition of GTA (not the GH or GGH)

ontario government

sort of bizarre how the Bruce is classified as SW Ontario.


imgur

[WhipperSnapper]

Impacts from the coronavirus will be short term on immigration. The next majority government will roll back the policies of the Trudeau government. It won't be strictly political beliefs. It will be out of necessity.

[Docere]

Don't see the Conservatives coming back for a long time. Justin will probably be around for as long as his father was, if he wants to be.

[yaletown_fella]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Skyscrapers can also give the false impression that a city is growing. Missisuaga, Toronto's largest suburb of about 750,000, is building very tall condo/apt buildings at a truly dizzying rate but the city's population is basically stagnating. It's not population growth but rather a shift as where those people are living. The SFH that use to have 5 or 6 people living in them probably, at most, have 3 now and their kids have moved into condos but there has been little net gain in total numbers.

Im doubtful most of their kids will move into condos.

Freehold townhomes are a much more sensible and cheaper option psf.

Condos basically require a $80,000/yr income to pay the mortgage and condo fees or the equally egregious rent where the mortgage, condo fees and taxes are priced in. Most people wont be earning this kind of money.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

Im doubtful most of their kids will move into condos.

Freehold townhomes are a much more sensible and cheaper option psf.

Condos basically require a $80,000/yr income to pay the mortgage and condo fees or the equally egregious rent where the mortgage, condo fees and taxes are priced in. Most people wont be earning this kind of money.

Studies show that young people who move out of their parents homes have a strong preference for urban downtown living. They're looking for location over space. For almost all of them that means a condo.... if they can afford one. Town houses and single family homes are even less affordable. Renting an apartment isn't cheaper either so some will leave the GTA altogether.

47,838 Torontonians left Toronto in July 1st, 2018 to July 1st, 2019 for other parts of Ontario. A lot of that is due to Torontonians being priced out of Toronto. Some of it is people wanting a higher quality of life, less congestion, less pollution, less crime, a slower pace of life, etc. It's a fairly new phenomenon but has picked up steam the last few years. Few have noticed because it gets buried in Toronto's overall strong population growth numbers.

When they're older a good chunk of these new urban condo dwellers will gravitate back to houses/suburbia but it's inaccurate to say that they're not moving into condos. They are and in large numbers.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm

[isaidso]

A continuation of my post above reveals a startling realization. If Toronto CMA didn't lose any population to other places in Ontario (net intraprovincial migration of zero) Toronto population growth for that period would have been 175,413; or a growth rate of 2.76%. That's a staggering number.

It goes to show that quality of life in Toronto is slipping. Housing is increasingly unaffordable, public transportation is bursting at the seams despite massive investment, and the City has failed to increase parkland/green space to keep up with population growth. Granted, the task at hand is monumental, but unless they can do better Torontonians will continue leaving. 47,838 leaving in one 12 month period is not a small number. It could turn into a flood of people leaving if they don't fix it.

I live in Downtown Toronto. They could build 6 football fields in the downtown core tomorrow and every single one of them would be packed all day every day. The City talks about how critical more green space is but they continue approving buildings on the few empty lots we have left. They better smarten up now because in 5-10 years it will be too late.

[chris08876]

As a wise old former chef once told me in the bathroom of Penn Station, "take growth forecasts with a pinch of salt".

2051... nothing is guaranteed.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by chris08876

As a wise old former chef once told me in the bathroom of Penn Station, "take growth forecasts with a pinch of salt".

2051... nothing is guaranteed.

Of course nothing guaranteed.

That said, the growth projections made by the province over the last decade have been largely accurate.

The province works with the federal government in determining immigration levels.


So, in the near-term (Covid aside) the numbers are likely to be fairly accurate.

Certainly when one gets beyond a 10-year horizon the picture is less clear; and the composition of immigrants is likely to change.

But the numbers while uncertain have some measure of credibility and are what is being planned for here.

[chris08876]

I just question if the figure is feasible given the cost of living for the metro. Unless they fix the affordability issue, we probally won't see consistent growth over such a large time range. Especially if it prices out immigrants. More to Canada than Toronto or the metro in other words.