Downtowns are back

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by edale

No way. I went to USC, so I'm very familiar with the neighborhoods around campus, and the University Park area is absolutely not downtown. The residential neighborhoods around campus, especially to the north of campus toward Downtown, are leafy and quasi suburban. Figueroa is getting some substantial infill, but it is still dominated by strip malls and drive thru fast food by campus, and some car dealerships closer to the 10 freeway. Campus area feels like a different world than DTLA, in my opinion.

Btw I love to see all the development in that part of the city, and I can't wait for the Lucas Museum to open and Expo Park to get its much needed facelift.

I said greater downtown.

[edale]

Originally Posted by LA21st

I said greater downtown.

Still a no. USC/University Park is in South LA. The 10 is a good southern boundary for the greater downtown area.

[Yuri]

Lower Manhattan & Financial District, New York


Francisca Urenda

That's a city where "Downtown" is actually Downtown + Midtown, taking half of Manhattan. In New York, urbanity is in a whole different level, so comparisons with other cities are pointless. For the purpose of this thread, I used 16 census tracts south of Canal, Bowery and Catherine streets as Lower Manhattan. A very small area of 3.5 km² only.

I also, used an even stricter area, south of Chambers St. and Brooklyn Bridge, to represent the Financial District. It has 2.15 km² only and that's where virtually all population growth took place.

It was where we've seen one of those big movements of residents turning CBDs into residential areas. Not directly related to it, but the it became more pronounced soon after the 9/11.

Anyway, let's see the numbers:



------------------------------------ 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ 1990 -------- Growth -------- Density

Financial District ------------------ 60,806 ----- 45,750 ----- 22,719 ----- 14,357 --- 32.9% ---- 101.4% ----- 58.2% ------- 2.2 km² --- 28,177.0 inh./km²

Lower Manhattan ----------------- 88,744 ----- 71,847 ----- 46,581 ----- 35,316 --- 23.5% ----- 54.2% ----- 31.9% ------- 3.5 km² --- 25,384.4 inh./km²

Manhattan --------------------- 1,694,251 -- 1,585,873 -- 1,537,195 -- 1,487,536 ---- 6.8% ------ 3.2% ------ 3.3% ------ 58.7 km² --- 28,872.7 inh./km²

New York City ----------------- 8,804,190 -- 8,175,133 -- 8,008,278 -- 7,322,564 ---- 7.7% ------ 2.1% ------ 9.4% ----- 778.2 km² --- 11,313.5 inh./km²

New York Metro Area -------- 22,692,839 - 21,358,372 - 20,675,403 - 19,083,415 ---- 6.2% ------ 3.3% ------ 8.3% ---- 21.770 km² ---- 1,042.4 inh./km²



Financial District population grew 3x (!!!) since 2000 and it's now as dense as Manhattan as a whole. They pretty much have invented "Downtown living".

[isaidso]

In Calgary's central core there were 39,958 people on 4.7 sq km in 2016. 21,958 were in the Beltline and 18,000 in the rest. Most of the downtown residential mid-rises/high-rises are being built in The Beltline. The Beltline's population of 21,958 in 2016 increased to 23,219 in 2017 and 24,887 in 2018.


Central Core of Calgary




2016 Population (Area)

18,000 (1.8 sq km): Downtown Core, Downtown West, East Village, Chinatown, Eau Claire
21,958 (2.9 sq km): The Beltline


Beltline: everything to the right of the Calgary Tower


https://www.stockaerialphotos.com/me...ine-at-sunrise


https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/city-coun...fort-1.5402374
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downto...y#Demographics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beltline,_Calgary

[Yuri]

I'm looking forward 2021 Canadian numbers to compare them with 2011 figures and the US metro areas.

As Canadian cities and a much higher base to begin with, in relative terms growth will be less impressive. In absolute terms, however, it seems tons of people are still moving in.

In Brazil, as trends take longer to reach here, the only city that is experiencing such phenomenon is São Paulo (thread's 1st post), starting in the 2000's but only becoming mainstream in the 2010's (I, for instance, decided to move Downtown in 2020). That's why I'm eagerly waiting local census, due to happen in 2020 but postponed to 2022 because Covid.

I guess this decade we might see this trend to reach other Brazilian major metro areas.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

I'm looking forward 2021 Canadian numbers to compare them with 2011 figures and the US metro areas.

As Canadian cities and a much higher base to begin with, in relative terms growth will be less impressive. In absolute terms, however, it seems tons of people are still moving in.

In Brazil, as trends take longer to reach here, the only city that is experiencing such phenomenon is São Paulo (thread's 1st post), starting in the 2000's but only becoming mainstream in the 2010's (I, for instance, decided to move Downtown in 2020). That's why I'm eagerly waiting local census, due to happen in 2020 but postponed to 2022 because Covid.

I guess this decade we might see this trend to reach other Brazilian major metro areas.

2021 Canadian Census will mask significant population fluctuations. There will likely be strong population growth 2016-2020 but weak growth 2020-2021. I doubt it affected construction much though.

In Toronto there was a 3-4 month period where construction sites were in lock down but then the previous level of activity resumed. Condos have to be majority pre-sold to move to construction so there wasn't a drop off in activity. The big question is how future construction activity will be affected. Immigration has zoomed right back up again so we'll likely just pick up where we left off.

Interest in downtown living waned a little due to COVID and expensive real estate. Lots decamped to smaller cities and towns. That said, the interest in urban living isn't going away any time soon. People, especially young people/seniors, are clamouring for walkable dense neighbourhoods. In most places that means downtown although dense pedestrian focused clusters are popping up all over the place.

[dc_denizen]

The densification of American downtowns in the latest census is shocking and belie the notion that density can only increase with high rise construction , although it certainly helps

Miami and Chicago are showing massive growth , wow

[Yuri]

Downtown, Midtown and New Center - Detroit




---------------------------- 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ 1990 ---- Growth ---- Density

Downtown ------------------ 6,151 ------ 5,287 ------ 6,141 ------ 5,970 ---- 16.3% --- -13.9% ------ 2.9% ------- 3.7 km² --- 1,668.3 inh./km²

Midtown ------------------ 16,921 ----- 14,550 ----- 16,877 ----- 16,692 ---- 16.3% --- -13.8% ------ 1.1% ------- 5.4 km² --- 3,141.7 inh./km²

New Center ----------------- 6,484 ------ 5,675 ------ 7,843 ------ 8,146 ---- 14.3% --- -27.6% ----- -3.7% ------- 3.1 km² --- 2,123.8 inh./km²

Detroit ------------------- 639,111 ---- 713,956 ---- 951,232 -- 1,028,067 --- -10.5% --- -24.9% ----- -7.5% --- 359.3 km² --- 1,778.8 inh./km²

Detroit Metro Area ---- 5,325,319 -- 5,218,852 -- 5,357,538 -- 5,095,695 ----- 2.0% ---- -2.6% ------ 5.1% -- 14,983 km²


I guess I having mix feelings regarding Downtown Detroit numbers. Even though is very promising the consistent, double-digit growth all over this axis in a time the city is still bleeding (metro area is growing though), I guess I hoped for a higher number, specially for Downtown.

For this decade, everything indicates it will speed up as happened in other Downtowns.

[Steely Dan]

^ Yeah, I was really hoping to see more robust growth in Detroit's core too. I mean, the numerical gain for downtown was only 864 people for the entire decade. That's kinda disappointing, I guess I had my expectations set too high.

At least all three areas reversed their negative growth from the previous decade, so that's a hopeful start to the resurgence. Hopefully this current decade is when core Detroit really takes off and we see some more substantial population growth.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ Yeah, I was hoping to see more robust growth in Detroit's core too. The numerical gain for downtown was only 864 people for the whole decade. That's pretty paltry.

Hopefully this current decade is when core Detroit really takes off and we see some massive population growth.

The true bottom was probably sometime around 2014-2015 following the bankruptcy, so any positive growth this decade is a good sign.

Also we would expect to see very small families in downtown Detroit vs. the rest of the city so households and housing units might be a better measure for now.

[Crawford]

Downtown Detroit has barely any new residential construction. There are some office-to-residential conversions, and some new lowrise residentials, but I don't think a highrise residential building has been built in downtown Detroit since Millender Center was built in 1985.

Correction - believe the last of the Riverfront Towers was built in the early 1990's. Those are three subsidized towers built just west of the downtown freeway loop, but even if technically outside the loop, I think everyone would count Riverfront Towers as "downtown" even if they're detached from downtown, and not really walkable bc of the roadway infrastructure.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Downtown, Midtown and New Center - Detroit




---------------------------- 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ 1990 ---- Growth ---- Density

Downtown ------------------ 6,151 ------ 5,287 ------ 6,141 ------ 5,970 ---- 16.3% --- -13.9% ------ 2.9% ------- 3.7 km² --- 1,668.3 inh./km²

Midtown ------------------ 16,921 ----- 14,550 ----- 16,877 ----- 16,692 ---- 16.3% --- -13.8% ------ 1.1% ------- 5.4 km² --- 3,141.7 inh./km²

New Center ----------------- 6,484 ------ 5,675 ------ 7,843 ------ 8,146 ---- 14.3% --- -27.6% ----- -3.7% ------- 3.1 km² --- 2,123.8 inh./km²

Detroit ------------------- 639,111 ---- 713,956 ---- 951,232 -- 1,028,067 --- -10.5% --- -24.9% ----- -7.5% --- 359.3 km² --- 1,778.8 inh./km²

Detroit Metro Area ---- 5,325,319 -- 5,218,852 -- 5,357,538 -- 5,095,695 ----- 2.0% ---- -2.6% ------ 5.1% -- 14,983 km²


I guess I having mix feelings regarding Downtown Detroit numbers. Even though is very promising the consistent, double-digit growth all over this axis in a time the city is still bleeding (metro area is growing though), I guess I hoped for a higher number, specially for Downtown.

For this decade, everything indicates it will speed up as happened in other Downtowns.

In terms of the definition of the broader core of Detroit, I would probably include the east Riverfront which is located between the Renaissance Center and the Aretha Franklin Amphitheater. This area saw quite a bit of new housing construction between 2010 - 2020.

2011: https://goo.gl/maps/UK21edj1pJsFbAo76
2020: https://goo.gl/maps/6XdLW6zLTaiceH8Z6

Originally Posted by Crawford

Downtown Detroit has barely any new residential construction. There are some office-to-residential conversions, and some new lowrise residentials, but I don't think a highrise residential building has been built in downtown Detroit since Millender Center was built in 1985.

There was a parking tower built for the Book Cadillac Hotel and residences that has condos on the top level. But yeah, no new high rises that would substantially move the population needle downtown. Most of the growth over the next decade, should it happen, will probably materialize in Midtown, New Center, and along the east Riverfront.

Originally Posted by Crawford

Correction - believe the last of the Riverfront Towers was built in the early 1990's. Those are three subsidized towers built just west of the downtown freeway loop, but even if technically outside the loop, I think everyone would count Riverfront Towers as "downtown" even if they're detached from downtown, and not really walkable bc of the roadway infrastructure.

The Riverfront Towers are definitely "downtown". They have their own direct entrance to the Detroit People Mover station at the Joe Louis Arena site. They also have direct access to the Riverwalk.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The Riverfront Towers are definitely "downtown". They have their own direct entrance to the Detroit People Mover station at the Joe Louis Arena site. They also have direct access to the Riverwalk.

Riverfront Towers are included in downtown census tract 5208, which jumps west over the lodge to capture them, along with the southeast corner of corktown.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ Yeah, I was really hoping to see more robust growth in Detroit's core too. I mean, the numerical gain for downtown was only 864 people for the entire decade. That's kinda disappointing, I guess I had my expectations set too high.

At least all three areas reversed their negative growth from the previous decade, so that's a hopeful start to the resurgence. Hopefully this current decade is when core Detroit really takes off and we see some more substantial population growth.

Originally Posted by galleyfox

The true bottom was probably sometime around 2014-2015 following the bankruptcy, so any positive growth this decade is a good sign.

Also we would expect to see very small families in downtown Detroit vs. the rest of the city so households and housing units might be a better measure for now.

I'm not on the ground, but I suspect they will have a strong decade. They seem to be in the beginning of their process.

In Atlanta, for instance, we've seen both Downtown and Midtown growing even faster this decade, from a higher base than Detroit.

Another thing promising is the growth in Midtown and New Center, specially as they still have several blocks still losing population.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Riverfront Towers are included in downtown census tract 5208, which jumps west over the lodge to capture them, along with the southeast corner of corktown.

Yes. I used three tracts, the freeway loop and the riverfront.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Lower Manhattan & Financial District, New York


Francisca Urenda

That's a city where "Downtown" is actually Downtown + Midtown, taking half of Manhattan. In New York, urbanity is in a whole different level, so comparisons with other cities are pointless. For the purpose of this thread, I used 16 census tracts south of Canal, Bowery and Catherine streets as Lower Manhattan. A very small area of 3.5 km² only.

I also, used an even stricter area, south of Chambers St. and Brooklyn Bridge, to represent the Financial District. It has 2.15 km² only and that's where virtually all population growth took place.

It was where we've seen one of those big movements of residents turning CBDs into residential areas. Not directly related to it, but the it became more pronounced soon after the 9/11.

Anyway, let's see the numbers:



------------------------------------ 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ 1990 -------- Growth -------- Density

Financial District ------------------ 60,806 ----- 45,750 ----- 22,719 ----- 14,357 --- 32.9% ---- 101.4% ----- 58.2% ------- 2.2 km² --- 28,177.0 inh./km²

Lower Manhattan ----------------- 88,744 ----- 71,847 ----- 46,581 ----- 35,316 --- 23.5% ----- 54.2% ----- 31.9% ------- 3.5 km² --- 25,384.4 inh./km²

Manhattan --------------------- 1,694,251 -- 1,585,873 -- 1,537,195 -- 1,487,536 ---- 6.8% ------ 3.2% ------ 3.3% ------ 58.7 km² --- 28,872.7 inh./km²

New York City ----------------- 8,804,190 -- 8,175,133 -- 8,008,278 -- 7,322,564 ---- 7.7% ------ 2.1% ------ 9.4% ----- 778.2 km² --- 11,313.5 inh./km²

New York Metro Area -------- 22,692,839 - 21,358,372 - 20,675,403 - 19,083,415 ---- 6.2% ------ 3.3% ------ 8.3% ---- 21.770 km² ---- 1,042.4 inh./km²



Financial District population grew 3x (!!!) since 2000 and it's now as dense as Manhattan as a whole. They pretty much have invented "Downtown living".

These numbers are insane in a great way. During my first trip to NYC in 1985, I was amazed at how the financial district almost completely emptied out at 6pm, with few people on the streets. A huge difference from my most recent trip to NYC in 2017, where there were people around at all hours.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

These numbers are insane in a great way. During my first trip to NYC in 1985, I was amazed at how the financial district almost completely emptied out at 6pm, with few people on the streets. A huge difference from my most recent trip to NYC in 2017, where there were people around at all hours.

I first visited NYC around the same time (1986 as a kid) and lower Manhattan was a depressing ghost town after hours which is night and day different than it is today. Still, compared to Midtown, it is more subdued. It was also full of contrasts, extravagant wealth right around the World Trade Center area and bombed out buildings a couple blocks away.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Riverfront Towers are included in downtown census tract 5208, which jumps west over the lodge to capture them, along with the southeast corner of corktown.

I'd say Sixth Street is the true western boundary of downtown Detroit. I wouldn't consider anything west of it as "downtown", but everything east of it seems unequivocally "downtown" to me.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

These numbers are insane in a great way. During my first trip to NYC in 1985, I was amazed at how the financial district almost completely emptied out at 6pm, with few people on the streets. A huge difference from my most recent trip to NYC in 2017, where there were people around at all hours.

I imagine it's an amazing place to live. I envy people there. It's incredibly dense now, full of residents, but with all the charm of a traditional Financial District: narrow streets, big old buildings, unique layout.

Inside Downtown São Paulo, there are a small area that looks like that, with much shorter buildings of course. I hope some day it becomes residential as well, as other parts of Downtown. And down here, we really need that, as banks long moved away from the region to other financial districts southwestwards.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

These numbers are insane in a great way. During my first trip to NYC in 1985, I was amazed at how the financial district almost completely emptied out at 6pm, with few people on the streets. A huge difference from my most recent trip to NYC in 2017, where there were people around at all hours.

There's definitely a lot more there now, but it still has the perception of being "boring". I don't get the appeal of it as a place to live unless you actually work in FiDi.

[Crawford]

Yeah, Lower Manhattan wouldn't be high on my list of Manhattan neighborhoods for living. It was never "bombed out", BTW. Ever. Even in NYC's worst years, it never had troubled areas.

One of the big reasons you see more traditional families down there is because a bunch of elite private schools opened. Leman Prep, Blue School, Pine Street School, etc. Also, the public schools are some of the best in the city.