Naming US metropolitan areas

[Crawford]

I doubt Detroit has leveled out. The annual estimates are notoriously poor and politicized, but Detroit has never shown growth in an annual estimate.

The non-core neighborhoods are still emptying out at a pretty rapid pace. I would be shocked to see stable population for Detroit in 2020 Census, even acknowledging the core improvements and some Mexican/Middle Eastern immigration on the SW side.

Baltimore barely gets any immigrants, and not a huge zone of gentrification. I'm guessing population will fall further. It's sad because the city's urban bones are easily Top 10 in the U.S.

[goat314]

Originally Posted by Zeej

How much further does Baltimore have to slide? St. Louis as well for that matter - about to fall below 300,000.

It seems as though Detroit and Pittsburgh have just about leveled out, while Cincinnati has slowly been recovering from it's bottom and other municipalities such as Newark and Minneapolis have been growing steadily once again.

St. Louis' population loss is at a trickle now. It may start growing again in the next 10-20 years. I would say it's very close to it's bottom. I think the problem is that the black flight from the Northside of the city are far more than the gains that have been made in other redeveloping parts of the city. If St. Louis wants to start growing again. I think a lot of it involves stopping or at least slowing black flight and attracting more immigration. With that said, the city of St. Louis is quickly getting wealthier and more educated. The cost of real estate in desirable neighborhoods is also getting exponentially more expensive. I mean we are seeing homes that were $100k in 2010 selling for $500k. A lot of it is due to the booming tech and medical districts around the universities.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I doubt Detroit has leveled out. The annual estimates are notoriously poor and politicized, but Detroit has never shown growth in an annual estimate.

The non-core neighborhoods are still emptying out at a pretty rapid pace. I would be shocked to see stable population for Detroit in 2020 Census, even acknowledging the core improvements and some Mexican/Middle Eastern immigration on the SW side.

I think the city started to estimate growth around 2017. But even if true that won't show up on the 2020 census.

Originally Posted by Crawford

Baltimore barely gets any immigrants, and not a huge zone of gentrification. I'm guessing population will fall further. It's sad because the city's urban bones are easily Top 10 in the U.S.

Since Philadelphia started growing again last decade, Baltimore is the only major city in the northeast corridor that hasn't stopped its 20th century population decline. I would recommend keeping an eye on it over the next 10-20 years.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think the city started to estimate growth around 2017. But even if true that won't show up on the 2020 census.

It's hardly scientific, but if you Google Streetview non-core neighborhoods in Detroit, and compare 2008-09 to more recent views, you see dramatic changes. Practically every residential street has more vacant lots or boarded up buildings:

https://www.google.com/maps/@42.4055...7i13312!8i6656

Often the East Side has ridiculous decline:
https://www.google.com/maps/@42.4203...7i13312!8i6656

And same goes for retail corridors:
https://www.google.com/maps/@42.3923...7i13312!8i6656

Again, totally subjective observation, but it's difficult to imagine population growth in the face of growing abandonment. Outside of the NW Detroit professional neighborhoods, the core, and maybe the Mexican parts of SW, blight is still expanding.

[C.]

Originally Posted by DCReid

How does the US census/OMB define metro areas? Most have three cities, such as Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, but some just have one, like Pittsburgh, PA? Also, I thought the ones with 3 cities are the largest 3 cities, like Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland, but that does not always appear to be the case, such as Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford - Daytona Beach is part of the Orlando metro was the 2nd largest in 2010. I am just curious whether they will change metro names after the 2020 to reflect faster growing cities that because larger in some of the faster growing metros. I recall that Houston metro used to have Galveston in the name but it was taken out and The Woodlands was put in (I think). Will a metro like Dallas eventually have a new metro name like Dallas-Ft. Worth-Frisco or McKinney in 20-30 years if the outer burbs keep growing? W

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greate...atistical_Area

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas

I wish it would be just by population. The three most populated cities in the metro area if the population of each of the two or three cities to be listed are over 100,000.

I'm waiting for the day New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area becomes the New York-Jersey City-Newark, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area. Maybe 2020 will be my year

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

It's hardly scientific, but if you Google Streetview non-core neighborhoods in Detroit, and compare 2008-09 to more recent views, you see dramatic changes. Practically every residential street has more vacant lots or boarded up buildings:

https://www.google.com/maps/@42.4055...7i13312!8i6656

Often the East Side has ridiculous decline:
https://www.google.com/maps/@42.4203...7i13312!8i6656

And same goes for retail corridors:
https://www.google.com/maps/@42.3923...7i13312!8i6656

Again, totally subjective observation, but it's difficult to imagine population growth in the face of growing abandonment. Outside of the NW Detroit professional neighborhoods, the core, and maybe the Mexican parts of SW, blight is still expanding.

Yeah, I know. But most of that abandonment occurred pre-2015. I don't think any area of the city is still rapidly depopulating. And some of the areas that were depopulating have started to repopulate.

[KB0679]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I assume he's referring to Baltimore, which traditionally had a larger population than DC, though no longer, I think.

Also, if you want to be super-pedantic, the District of Columbia isn't an incorporated city, but a federal district.

Even so, DC and Baltimore are two independent traditionally urban big cities that just happen to be in close proximity whose exurbs have grown into each other, facilitating the emergence of a CSA. It's not at all a situation like SJ/SF with the postwar Sunbelt boomtown which annexed a lot of land surpassing the older denser city with a relatively small footprint that lacks the ability to expand its borders.