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  #1  
Old Posted May 4, 2023, 6:33 PM
Smuttynose1 Smuttynose1 is offline
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Downtown COVID Bounceback -- SLC thrives, San Fran struggles

According to mobile device connectivity data collected and analyzed by the University of Toronto School of Cities, a handful of US and Canadian cities have nearly returned to, or exceeded, their pre-pandemic levels of foot traffic in their downtowns.

A handful of large cities appear to have had among the hardest times coming back, including Montreal, Philadelphia, Toronto, St Louis and Portland. But San Francisco is especially notable for its distant last place ranking. The media has attributed this to the 'crime ridden' nature of the city, but it likely has more to do with the high concertation of tech workers there still working remotely.

http://downtownrecovery.com/dashboar...y_ranking.html

Greatest Recoveries

1.) Salt Lake City, Utah - 139%
2.) Bakersfield, Calif. - 118%
3.) Fresno, Calif. - 115%
4.) Columbus, Ohio - 109%
5.) El Paso, Tex - 106%
6.) Albuquerque, NM - 98%
7.) Baltimore, Md. - 93%
8.) San Diego, Calif. - 93%
9.) Honolulu, Haw. - 84%
10.) Tampa, Fl. - 84%

14.) Mississauga, Ontario - 79%
20.) Halifax, Nova Scotia - 74%

And the slowest to come back...

53.) Montreal, Quebec - 47%
54.) Philadelphia, Penn. - 47%
55.) Toronto, Ontario - 47%
56.) Kansas City, Mo. - 47%
57.) Oakland, Calif. - 47%
58.) Cleveland, Ohio - 44%
59.) Minneapolis, Minn. - 41%
60.) Indianapolis, Ind. - 41%
61.) Portland, Ore. - 40%
62.) St Louis, Mo. - 38%
63.) San Francisco, Calif. -32%
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  #2  
Old Posted May 4, 2023, 8:44 PM
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Quote:
The media has attributed this to the 'crime ridden' nature of the city, but it likely has more to do with the high concertation of tech workers there still working remotely.
I think it is a bit of both. The homeless and crime compounding on the lack of office workers has been a one-two punch on downtown.
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  #3  
Old Posted May 4, 2023, 8:57 PM
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Hmmm… doesn’t seem accurate for Philadelphia. Unless they’re only counting office workers? But why would they only count one piece of a puzzle that makes up a downtown?

Per the Center City District, Center City (downtown), Philadelphia is at 78% of its pre-pandemic pedestrian levels as of February 2023. I bet that number is even higher now that temps are warming up and the city has been bustling and booming.

https://centercityphila.org/research...rt-spring-2023
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  #4  
Old Posted May 4, 2023, 9:00 PM
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The drop in activity in downtown Toronto is limited to just the financial district, and on some days lately it seems just as busy there now as pre-pandemic. Mondays are the quietest, Wednesdays and Thursdays the streets are packed. Outside the financial district, a recent count of pedestrian activity along the downtown Yonge Street BIA saw that pedestrian activity actually exceeded 2019 levels.
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  #5  
Old Posted May 4, 2023, 11:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smuttynose1 View Post
According to mobile device connectivity data collected and analyzed by the University of Toronto School of Cities, a handful of US and Canadian cities have nearly returned to, or exceeded, their pre-pandemic levels of foot traffic in their downtowns.

A handful of large cities appear to have had among the hardest times coming back, including Montreal, Philadelphia, Toronto, St Louis and Portland. But San Francisco is especially notable for its distant last place ranking. The media has attributed this to the 'crime ridden' nature of the city, but it likely has more to do with the high concertation of tech workers there still working remotely.

http://downtownrecovery.com/dashboar...y_ranking.html

Greatest Recoveries

1.) Salt Lake City, Utah - 139%
2.) Bakersfield, Calif. - 118%
3.) Fresno, Calif. - 115%
4.) Columbus, Ohio - 109%
5.) El Paso, Tex - 106%
6.) Albuquerque, NM - 98%
7.) Baltimore, Md. - 93%
8.) San Diego, Calif. - 93%
9.) Honolulu, Haw. - 84%
10.) Tampa, Fl. - 84%

14.) Mississauga, Ontario - 79%
20.) Halifax, Nova Scotia - 74%

And the slowest to come back...

53.) Montreal, Quebec - 47%
54.) Philadelphia, Penn. - 47%
55.) Toronto, Ontario - 47%
56.) Kansas City, Mo. - 47%
57.) Oakland, Calif. - 47%
58.) Cleveland, Ohio - 44%
59.) Minneapolis, Minn. - 41%
60.) Indianapolis, Ind. - 41%
61.) Portland, Ore. - 40%
62.) St Louis, Mo. - 38%
63.) San Francisco, Calif. -32%
Its almost as if occupancy and sunshine hours are correlated. Top ten mostly sunny. Bottom ten, mostly cloudy cities.
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  #6  
Old Posted May 5, 2023, 4:39 AM
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Originally Posted by pdxtex View Post
Its almost as if occupancy and sunshine hours are correlated. Top ten mostly sunny. Bottom ten, mostly cloudy cities.

Not really. For example, SF and Oakland (can't find stats for Oakland, but it's very similar to SF) get more sunshine and less cloud cover than most of the cities on the top ten most-recovered list:

Annual average sunshine hours / clear days (30% or less cloud overage during daylight hours):

Columbus - 2190 hours / 72 clear days
Baltimore - 2520 hours / 105 clear days
Tampa - 2927 hours / 101 clear days
Salt Lake City - 3029 hours / 125 clear days
Honolulu - 3038 hours / 90 clear days
San Diego - 3055 hours /146 clear days
San Francisco - 3072 hours / 160 clear days
Bakersfield - 3342 hours /191 clear days
Albuquerque - 3415 hours / 167 clear days
Fresno - 3579 hours / 194 clear days
El Paso - 3760 hours / 193 clear days

SF/Oakland also gets more sunshine and clear days than every city on the top 10 least-recovered list. The closest one is Kansas City, MO, with 2800 hours per year, and 120 clear days.

A note on the data: SF's data is almost always taken from SFO because I guess that's where the weather station is, but SFO does have a similar climate to the eastern part of SF. Downtown SF for example, gets about the same pecent of yearly sunshine as San Diego (66% vs 68%, can't find sunshine hour stats for downtown SF), and other eastern neighborhoods should get a similar amount. For comparison, downtown LA is at 73%. And of course a neighborhood like say, the Richmond district, would get less than downtown SF (and less than the Mission district, Bayview, etc).

EDIT: apparently those downtown SF stats are from a weather station that's actually at the SF Mint, which is at the edge of the Castro/Hayes Valley/Lower Haight (and why the hell do so many sources use the SFO station instead of this one?), and not in downtown, despite being named "downtown". So downtown SF (and the eastern neighborhoods) should be warmer than the numbers above show.

SF's weather can be confusing, thanks largely to the geography (hills, water, cold ocean air + hot inland air). It's relatively unique in that it gets giant fog banks, and most of that fog/overcast weather/strong winds occurs during the summer, when the majority of tourists visit, who mostly come from places that are always hot during the summer. SF's micro-climates also contribute to the confusion, no doubt...if you spend most of your time on the western and northern sides of the city (like many tourists do, along with many of the more upper class residents), especially during the summer (and especially if most of your outside-time is in the mornings and evenings, when the fog/wind is at its peak, which is certainly the case for some people who spend all day working inside), it might truly seem like a cold and cloudy city. Especially if your point of comparison is the tropics, or a desert. But even the west side can get nice and warm during the summer, around midday/the early afternoon, and if you spend most of your time on the east side of the city, SF is consistently warm and sunny. And as far as micro-climates go, you don't even have to cross the city, or even an entire neighborhood to experience big changes. There are times where an area at the bottom of a hill is 75 degrees, but then two blocks away, at the top of the hill, it's 60 degrees and windy.

Overall SF isn't particularly cloudy, rainy, etc, compared to most other American cities. In fact it's the opposite, which makes sense when you consider that SF has a Mediterranean climate. Like other big CA cities, it's quite dry and sunny compared to most of the rest of America, aside from the southwest. You can grow thing like palm trees, cacti, lemon trees, avocados, peppers, etc, outside in SF, all year long. Try doing that in Columbus or Minneapolis lol.

Anyways, I'm guessing that the main reason downtown SF isn't recovering as fast as other places, is because in the years leading up to the pandemic, SF saw a high proportion of office space switch over to tech-related businesses, which disproportionately switched over to work-from-home during the pandemic, without switching back afterwards. SF, and the Bay in general was also one of the top cities in America when it came to people masking, quarantining and avoiding crowds and whatnot. Downtown (especially the financial district) was a ghost town for a long time (and consequently, so was BART), to an extent you didn't see in many other places, and a lot of businesses couldn't cope with it, especially when you throw in the insanely high rents, which are always a problem.

A little is probably caused by all the crime hysteria that the media and right wing politicians/pundits have been amplifying, as well. But even then, as we saw with CVS, and undoubtedly some other business as well, the real reason they closed their stores down was not crime, as they first stated publicly (for political/PR reasons, to shift blame, and save face), but due to existing plans they had to cut back operations on a nationwide scale, to save money. The SF closures were just a few of 900 planned closures across the US.

All that being said, tourism spending in SF is almost back at pre-pandemic levels, and when you talk about tourism in SF, that includes a big chunk of downtown (Union Square, for example):

https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/busi...b8b276617.html

Things really aren't quite as bad overall as the media makes it out to be. Anecdotally, rush-hour crowds on BART and Muni in downtown SF seem almost back to normal.

Also, this list is only counting half of downtown SF. It excludes Union Square, Yerba Buena/Central SOMA, the Tenderloin, and Civic Center. Lists about downtown areas often do this with SF.

Last edited by tech12; May 5, 2023 at 5:13 AM.
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  #7  
Old Posted May 5, 2023, 2:55 PM
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^ It's pretty similar, I think.
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Last edited by SFBruin; May 5, 2023 at 3:20 PM.
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  #8  
Old Posted May 5, 2023, 4:17 PM
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Originally Posted by summersm343 View Post
Hmmm… doesn’t seem accurate for Philadelphia. Unless they’re only counting office workers? But why would they only count one piece of a puzzle that makes up a downtown?

Per the Center City District, Center City (downtown), Philadelphia is at 78% of its pre-pandemic pedestrian levels as of February 2023. I bet that number is even higher now that temps are warming up and the city has been bustling and booming.

https://centercityphila.org/research...rt-spring-2023
Yeah, Center City feels absolutely mobbed to me anymore. Not sure what the methodology was on this.
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  #9  
Old Posted May 5, 2023, 4:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by summersm343 View Post
Hmmm… doesn’t seem accurate for Philadelphia. Unless they’re only counting office workers? But why would they only count one piece of a puzzle that makes up a downtown?

Per the Center City District, Center City (downtown), Philadelphia is at 78% of its pre-pandemic pedestrian levels as of February 2023. I bet that number is even higher now that temps are warming up and the city has been bustling and booming.

https://centercityphila.org/research...rt-spring-2023
It's based on cell phone tower hits in the downtown areas. It's the data that I used for the list in this thread: https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...=253451&page=5
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  #10  
Old Posted May 5, 2023, 5:55 PM
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57% seems plausible for Chicago, overall.

But like most other places, I imagine, it's not consistent M-F because of new hybrid work models.

Tues - Thursday feels MUCH closer to the loop of the before times.

And Mondays and Fridays still feel very noticeablely slower.




Selfishly, I'm very pleased that I now have an old fashioned job that requires my ass in the office 5 days/week. I need the routine.

So. Much. Happier.
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  #11  
Old Posted May 5, 2023, 7:16 PM
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Buh...akersfield? Some of that might be from the train station.
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  #12  
Old Posted May 5, 2023, 7:58 PM
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It also depends on how they define "downtown". For Miami which they list as 64% recovered, Brickell (South of the River) is packed and seems fully recovered while the traditional CBD (north of the River) is home to numerous local Government/Legal office buildings only occupied a few days a week and the area is still littered with shuttered store fronts.

For example these streetview images were probably taken the same day in Jan 2023.

North of the River: https://www.google.com/maps/@25.7747...7i16384!8i8192
South of the River: https://www.google.com/maps/@25.7646...7i16384!8i8192
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  #13  
Old Posted May 5, 2023, 8:31 PM
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Originally Posted by summersm343 View Post
Hmmm… doesn’t seem accurate for Philadelphia. Unless they’re only counting office workers? But why would they only count one piece of a puzzle that makes up a downtown?

Per the Center City District, Center City (downtown), Philadelphia is at 78% of its pre-pandemic pedestrian levels as of February 2023. I bet that number is even higher now that temps are warming up and the city has been bustling and booming.

https://centercityphila.org/research...rt-spring-2023
I think you can have pedestrian levels at roughly 78% and still have lower cellphone pings, since there are less people working in those office towers.
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  #14  
Old Posted May 5, 2023, 8:52 PM
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Another thing to note is that it is average data for Q4 2022.
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  #15  
Old Posted May 5, 2023, 10:46 PM
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Salt Lake's numbers are likely up in part due to hosting the NBA all-star game during the relevant period, I've seen estimates of around 100,000 visitors for the event. But hard to say how much of a difference that makes percentage-wise.
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Old Posted May 5, 2023, 11:15 PM
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Portland is largely crime and safety related. Offices are moving to the suburbs as fast as they can. You could send everyone back to work downtown and they would just be packed in a sea of tents, vandalism, and fentanyl addicts.

San Francisco won the jackpot with crime, expensive space, AND tech companies trending to more AI to replace their programming staff.
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Old Posted May 6, 2023, 2:12 AM
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Not surprised with SLC. Recently moved downtown and its never been busier.
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  #18  
Old Posted May 6, 2023, 3:39 PM
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I can testify to downtown KC's low status. I recently started having to go downtown to work 2 days a week, and it's still pretty dead even in the middle of lunch hour.
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  #19  
Old Posted May 6, 2023, 5:00 PM
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This study goes either to or thru feb . Either way SF has recovered a bit more since then. The convention traffic is still nonexistent and really it is only busier downtown tue -thur with Fridays being completely dead still. Unfortunately the homelessness and shoplifting vandalizing of properties drug use, etc. is not helping. The city and Bay area need to get a handle on this.
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Old Posted May 6, 2023, 5:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Reverberation View Post
Portland is largely crime and safety related. Offices are moving to the suburbs as fast as they can. You could send everyone back to work downtown and they would just be packed in a sea of tents, vandalism, and fentanyl addicts.

San Francisco won the jackpot with crime, expensive space, AND tech companies trending to more AI to replace their programming staff.
Downtown feels much healthier these days from recent visits. The tents are largely gone except along the 405 freeway corridor, and the area around Powell's books is bustling like pre covid times. I was even downtown on a cold Monday night in February and it wasn't exactly busy but it felt safe. We have a ways to go but it's not quite as dire as you say.
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