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  #1  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 2:09 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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Combining MSAs

CSAs are too extensive in my view, but sometimes metro populations get "shortchanged" because of commuting patterns separating some counties which should be part of the metro.

My habit is to combine San Francisco and San Jose MSAs as well as add the Inland Empire to Los Angeles when posting stats here.

Other examples are Fairfield County, Connecticut which really belongs in the NYC metro.
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  #2  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 4:45 AM
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I'd like to go the other way and split up MSAs. We think of northern Delaware as its own metro, semi-tied to Philadelphia like Reading or Atlantic City. Philadelphians know more about Atlantic City or Cape May than they do even the closest places in Delaware. But I guess there's a certain number of people in Claymont and Brandywine Hundred that work in Pennsylvania that means we get lumped in. And then Elkton, Maryland, is considered part of the Philadelphia MSA because some people in Elkton work in Newark, and since New Castle County is part of the Philadelphia MSA, then Cecil County, MD gets put into the MSA as well.

There is no truly right way to do it, but I think other measures can be somehow included to more accurately reflect the "sphere of influence" of a city on the surrounding areas.
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  #3  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 12:44 PM
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Steely Dan Steely Dan is offline
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I'm typically of the opinion that most MSAs need to be trimmed down.

Just look at the absurdity of the Chicago MSA as an example. WTF are Newton and Jasper Counties doing there?


That said, one instance were an MSA boundary is drawn too tightly is Milwaukee. Because Racine county's out-of-county commuters get pulled both north and south into the Milwaukee and Chicago MSAs, it doesn't meet the threshold to be added to either MSA. But in a more normal situation without the 800 lb. Gorilla to it's south, Racine County would almost certainly be added to the Milwaukee MSA.
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  #4  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 1:10 PM
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Boston and Worcester being in separate MSAs is silly. Boston and Providence in separate MSAs? Sure, makes total sense. Sharing a CSA is right. But separating Worcester? Especially when parts of New Hampshire are in the Boston MSA?
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  #5  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 2:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
I'm typically of the opinion that most MSAs need to be trimmed down.

Just look at the absurdity of the Chicago MSA as an example. WTF are Newton and Jasper Counties doing there?


That said, one instance were an MSA boundary is drawn too tightly is Milwaukee. Because Racine county's out-of-county commuters get pulled both north and south into the Milwaukee and Chicago MSAs, it doesn't meet the threshold to be added to either MSA. But in a more normal situation without the 800 lb. Gorilla to it's south, Racine County would almost certainly be added to the Milwaukee MSA.
You've made this argument before over the years, I don't know why you think MSA's like Chicago are TOO big. Why? What makes that a bad thing and smaller MSA's a better thing? That is counterintuitive.
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Last edited by sentinel; Mar 14, 2023 at 2:04 PM. Reason: Wording
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  #6  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 2:44 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by xzmattzx View Post
I'd like to go the other way and split up MSAs. We think of northern Delaware as its own metro, semi-tied to Philadelphia like Reading or Atlantic City. Philadelphians know more about Atlantic City or Cape May than they do even the closest places in Delaware.
This is patently false.

People who live in Delaware and Chester Counties are inextricably tied to Delaware. Thousands if not tens of thousands of them work in Wilmington. Almost everyone shops there. Northern Delaware is 15 minutes from Philadelphia city limits. Atlantic City is an hour. Cape May is almost 2 hours.

This is just a ridiculous statement all around.
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  #7  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 2:45 PM
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These MSAs should be combined:

NYC + Fairfield County
San Francisco + San Jose
Detroit + Ann Arbor (maybe also add in Monroe County)
Cleveland + Akron
Raleigh + Durham
Los Angeles + Riverside

I could make a case either way for Baltimore + Washington. These are clearly two very intertwined metros, but they also have two very distinct center of gravities.

Toledo should probably be added to the Detroit CSA. This would likely occur when/if Monroe County is ever added to the Detroit MSA.
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  #8  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 2:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere View Post
CSAs are too extensive in my view, but sometimes metro populations get "shortchanged" because of commuting patterns separating some counties which should be part of the metro.

My habit is to combine San Francisco and San Jose MSAs as well as add the Inland Empire to Los Angeles when posting stats here.

Other examples are Fairfield County, Connecticut which really belongs in the NYC metro.
Ventura County should also probably be combined with the Los Angeles - Long Beach MSA.
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  #9  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 4:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
People who live in Delaware and Chester Counties are inextricably tied to Delaware. Thousands if not tens of thousands of them work in Wilmington. Almost everyone shops there. Northern Delaware is 15 minutes from Philadelphia city limits. Atlantic City is an hour. Cape May is almost 2 hours.
I'd add that unlike Cape May and Reading, Northern Delaware is connected to Philadelphia via SEPTA Regional Rail. And not just a token stop stop either, it runs about 30 miles through the densest part of the state, from Claymont to Newark.
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  #10  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 4:24 PM
dave8721 dave8721 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
These MSAs should be combined:

NYC + Fairfield County
San Francisco + San Jose
Detroit + Ann Arbor (maybe also add in Monroe County)
Cleveland + Akron
Raleigh + Durham
Los Angeles + Riverside

I could make a case either way for Baltimore + Washington. These are clearly two very intertwined metros, but they also have two very distinct center of gravities.

Toledo should probably be added to the Detroit CSA. This would likely occur when/if Monroe County is ever added to the Detroit MSA.
Tampa with Sarasota/Bradenton as well on the South end of Tampa Bay. Looking at them on a map, you would think they were one msa.
https://www.google.com/maps/@27.7323.../data=!3m1!1e3
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  #11  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 4:33 PM
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For Pennsylvania:
  • Pittsburgh + Youngstown-Warren-Boardman + Akron + Canton-Massillon + Cleveland-Elyria
  • Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington + Baltimore-Columbia-Towson + Washington-Arlington-Alexandria + York-Hanover + Harrisburg-Carlisle + Lancaster + Reading + Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton + Trenton-Princeton + Edison + Newark-Union + New York-Jersey City-White Plains

This stuff is ridiculous
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  #12  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 4:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sentinel View Post
You've made this argument before over the years, I don't know why you think MSA's like Chicago are TOO big. Why? What makes that a bad thing and smaller MSA's a better thing? That is counterintuitive.
I agree, it's not just Chicago with far -flung counties added to its metro, that could be said about the majority of Metro areas. Take a look at Atlanta, and even N.Y.C, with over 22 counties, as just a few examples. Chicago's influence is a lot greater than people imagine.
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  #13  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 4:45 PM
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combining MSAs benefits boosterism more than anything else.
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  #14  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 4:46 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
combining MSAs benefits boosterism more than anything else.
Not the case with the SF Bay Area. It acts and functions as one singular area.
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  #15  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 6:07 PM
edale edale is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
These MSAs should be combined:

NYC + Fairfield County
San Francisco + San Jose
Detroit + Ann Arbor (maybe also add in Monroe County)
Cleveland + Akron
Raleigh + Durham
Los Angeles + Riverside

I could make a case either way for Baltimore + Washington. These are clearly two very intertwined metros, but they also have two very distinct center of gravities.

Toledo should probably be added to the Detroit CSA. This would likely occur when/if Monroe County is ever added to the Detroit MSA.
Agree with everything here except the Toledo/Monroe County point. Monroe County is very rural near the Wayne County border. Really, most of the county is rural, except for the city of Monroe itself, and the small amount of Toledo sprawl at the southern edge of the county. If anything, Monroe County should be with the Toledo MSA.

And I don't believe Toledo should be added to the Detroit CSA, either. There's a somewhat crazy dividing line between the Ohio and Michigan in metro Toledo. You have pretty extensive, mature suburban development on the Ohio side directly adjacent to farmland across the Michigan border. You can clearly see the pattern here. There is a little bit of sprawl on the Michigan side further east, but it's very limited to a small area between SR 223 and SR 24. I've never really seen a state line act as such a cutoff for development before. Most cities on or near state lines flow pretty seamlessly, but Toledo is almost entirely contained on the Ohio side, despite Downtown Toledo being only ~7 miles from the state line. There's a pretty clear dividing line between Detroit and Toledo, and the space between is virtually empty, so it makes sense for them to remain separated. Certainly less connection exists between those two cities than Cincinnati and Dayton, which are closer together and almost entirely linked by sprawl, but still remain separate CSAs.
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  #16  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 6:18 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Agree with everything here except the Toledo/Monroe County point. Monroe County is very rural near the Wayne County border. Really, most of the county is rural, except for the city of Monroe itself, and the small amount of Toledo sprawl at the southern edge of the county. If anything, Monroe County should be with the Toledo MSA.

And I don't believe Toledo should be added to the Detroit CSA, either. There's a somewhat crazy dividing line between the Ohio and Michigan in metro Toledo. You have pretty extensive, mature suburban development on the Ohio side directly adjacent to farmland across the Michigan border. You can clearly see the pattern here. There is a little bit of sprawl on the Michigan side further east, but it's very limited to a small area between SR 223 and SR 24. I've never really seen a state line act as such a cutoff for development before. Most cities on or near state lines flow pretty seamlessly, but Toledo is almost entirely contained on the Ohio side, despite Downtown Toledo being only ~7 miles from the state line. There's a pretty clear dividing line between Detroit and Toledo, and the space between is virtually empty, so it makes sense for them to remain separated. Certainly less connection exists between those two cities than Cincinnati and Dayton, which are closer together and almost entirely linked by sprawl, but still remain separate CSAs.
Residual effect of the Toledo War?
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  #17  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 6:41 PM
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Originally Posted by PHL10 View Post
I'd add that unlike Cape May and Reading, Northern Delaware is connected to Philadelphia via SEPTA Regional Rail. And not just a token stop stop either, it runs about 30 miles through the densest part of the state, from Claymont to Newark.
It's an aburd assertion.

If anything, his statement is Exhibit A why Delaware has the reputation it has locally.

It reminds me of the time years ago when I listened to a woman chastise a store clerk at the Barnes & Noble on 202 in North Wilmington because it had collection jars on its counter for the Primate House at the Philadelphia Zoo, which had just burned down (it was super tragic, if you remember).

She chastised this minimum wage clerk for asking if she wanted to make a donation, to which she replied, "we have our own zoo here in Delaware".
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  #18  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 6:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by edale View Post
Agree with everything here except the Toledo/Monroe County point. Monroe County is very rural near the Wayne County border. Really, most of the county is rural, except for the city of Monroe itself, and the small amount of Toledo sprawl at the southern edge of the county. If anything, Monroe County should be with the Toledo MSA.

And I don't believe Toledo should be added to the Detroit CSA, either. There's a somewhat crazy dividing line between the Ohio and Michigan in metro Toledo. You have pretty extensive, mature suburban development on the Ohio side directly adjacent to farmland across the Michigan border. You can clearly see the pattern here. There is a little bit of sprawl on the Michigan side further east, but it's very limited to a small area between SR 223 and SR 24. I've never really seen a state line act as such a cutoff for development before. Most cities on or near state lines flow pretty seamlessly, but Toledo is almost entirely contained on the Ohio side, despite Downtown Toledo being only ~7 miles from the state line. There's a pretty clear dividing line between Detroit and Toledo, and the space between is virtually empty, so it makes sense for them to remain separated. Certainly less connection exists between those two cities than Cincinnati and Dayton, which are closer together and almost entirely linked by sprawl, but still remain separate CSAs.
The part of Monroe closest to Wayne County is where the nuclear power plant is located, so that's why it isn't developed. Monroe wouldn't add a meaningful number of population to the Detroit MSA, but it should absolutely be part of Detroit instead of being its own MSA. The entire county's population is about the same as some of Detroit's larger suburbs.

I think Toledo makes as much sense being part of Detroit's CSA as Flint. Maybe even a bit more. A few years ago Toledo was trying to create a commuter rail line to Detroit via DTW.
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Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 6:50 PM
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This paper raises some interesting questions:

Quote:
The new definition of MSAs starts with the UAs, and the extent of the resulting MSAs is necessarily highly dependent upon the extent of the UAs (U.S. Office of Management and Budget 2000). The reason is quite simple. All of the counties having a significant presence of the UA constitute the central counties of the MSA and become the core of the MSA. The larger the UA, the larger will be this starting core of the MSA. If two UAs were to be combined, the MSA central counties would be defined by that larger UA. Conversely, if you have 2 UAs that are adjacent and separate, each forming the core of their own MSA, it is highly unlikely that these areas could ever become part of a single MSA, especially for larger UAs and MSAs. This is because each of the MSAs will have a large employment base within its own area. A large proportion of the workers residing in each MSA will work in their own MSA. Even if there were very large commuting flowsbetween the two MSAs, it is very likely that they would not reach the 25 percent threshold required for their merger.

An example would be the San Francisco-Oakland MSA and the San Jose MSA. They are very large and each has high levels of employment. Large numbers commute from each area to the other. Nevertheless, the numbers commuting are not sufficient to meet the threshold to allow merger into a single unified MSA. If the San-Francisco-Oakland UA and the San Jose UA had been combined into a single, larger UA (there is a large, continuous area of urbanization between San Francisco and San Jose), then by definition the central counties of the San Francisco-Oakland MSA would be combined with the central counties of the San Jose MSA as the starting point for the single MSA. No commuting condition required.

This makes it clear that the extent of MSAs depends very much on the extent of the UAs used in delineating those MSAs. So the next critical question becomes, what determines the extent of the UAs? What determines whether an area is a single UA or is split into 2 or more UAs?

https://urbanpatternsblog.files.word...f-problems.pdf
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  #20  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2023, 7:13 PM
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Many people from San Francisco proper might not commute back and forth between San Jose proper and vice versa but tons of people from either MSA commute back and forth.
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