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Originally Posted by sentinel
Well, look on a map because your one example, Logan Square is about the same distance from DT as Lakeview.
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First of all, no it is not the same distance, second of all, you never addressed the fact that rents have changed radically in Logan Square while they haven't changed that much in Lakeview. By your logic the changing rents in Logan Square indicate that it has somehow moved closer to downtown which is just nutty.
Logan Square begins at Armitage and Western and Ends at Diversey. Lakeview begins at Diversey and ends at Irving Park. Even when you take into account the fact that Logan Square is at more of a "diagonal" from the loop, it doesn't make up for the difference. The distance as the crow flies does not matter anyhow because no one is flying to work. Measure travel times. There are 4 stations between the first Logan Square station (Western) and Clark and Lake. There are 6 or 7 stations (depending on Brown or Red line) between the first Lakeview station and Lake.
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You can't say that it applies in 'some scenarios' when there's a finite amount of possible scenarios. You really DON'T believe that rents are lower in the following scenarios, where the first neighborhood is closer to downtown than the next one??
- West Loop > Garfield Park
- Lincoln Park > Ravenswood > West Rogers Park
- Pilsen > Archer Heights
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Just because something is SOMETIMES the case doesn't mean it is ALWAYS the case. Like I said numerous times in my post, yes proximity to downtown is a factor, but your are insane if you think it is the primary factor. For example, why is Oak Park FAR pricier than Austin? Why is Hyde Park pricier than Bronzeville? Why are rents in Englewood far lower than just about anywhere south of there? Why are rents in Uptown much much lower than in Edgewater which is in turn much higher than in Rogers Park which is in turn much lower than Evanston? Why is it more expensive to rent in West Ridge than Rogers Park despite the fact that West Ridge is much further from any kind of public transport to downtown? Why is Andersonville much more expensive than the rest of Edgewater despite being further from the train? Why is Old Irving Park more expensive than Avondale? Why is Beverly more expensive than the vast majority of Chicago neighborhoods desipite being way off in a corner of the city? Why does the same apply to Norridge Park?
No matter how much nonsense you want to make up, what you are saying is simply a gross oversimplification to the point of absurdity. Distance to the loop simply IS NOT the main factor for rent or land prices. It IS a factor, but it is nowhere near the primary factor. Crime rates, redevelopment, sociology, amenities, and even the population density of cops and firemen are all vastly more relevant to rent levels and land value than "distance to the loop". Assuming all other factors are equal, then yes, distance to the loop does matter.
Also, as a matter of fact, I certainly can "say that it applies in 'some scenarios'" because that statement is simply a fact.
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Even in Hyde Park, which is still 6 miles from the Loop, rents are cheaper than in the South Loop, but most definitely higher than in Chatham, South Chicago or Pullman.
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You are conveniently ignoring the fact that Kenwood, Washington Park, Englewood, Pilsen, Bridgeport, etc all exist, are much closer to downtown, and have lower rents than Hyde Park. Hilarious cherry picking you've got there.
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It's simple logic that the further away you are from the densest urban core of a city like Chicago, the less you are on AVERAGE going to pay for a rental apartment.
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"Simple logic" is often wrong as it is in this case. Of course distance from downtown IS a factor (again, as I said probably half a dozen times in my first post), but it is basically completely overshadowed by numerous other factors. Another great factor I just remembered is this: how do you even define as the "center" of the city?
All parts of downtown, if we assume that includes Everything between Hancock and Sears, are not equal. Rents vary even downtown. Rents in the South Loop are lower than in Streeterville, explain that to me when they are both equidistant to the loop. Rents in Gold Coast crush rents in the South loop, but they are pretty much mirror images of each other. The fact is you are claiming that agglomeration economies apply evenly across the city which is absurd. The only reason agglomeration economies even exist is because the very cycle of development and increasing amenities that I described above. If it were all based upon "how close am I to my job" then the loop would have developed with a mix of office and residential uses, but it didn't. Instead the loop is devoid of amenities while places like Gold Coast developed them and became huge population centers and equally expensive. No one moves to Lincoln Park just because it is "close to the loop", they move there because it is a nice place to live and it's relative proximity to the loop is a small fraction of the reason why Lincoln Park is desirable.
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Lincoln Park > Lakeview > Uptown > West Rogers Park, and even then, rent will still be cheaper in Rogers Park, regardless of Loyola, than in East Lakeview.
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Again, you insist on ignoring all of the situations in which you are wrong. Did Edgewater just suddenly cease to exist? And actually, rent is now probably more expensive in much of Rogers Park around Loyola than it is anywhere in the Eastern half of Uptown with a few exceptions.
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I still stand by my assertion that even with new construction in Lakeview, at Clark & Belmont, you're not going to be able to command Streeterville prices for a 1 or 2 bedroom unit.
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And here's the dagger, you actually can command very close to Streeterville prices in the neighborhoods if you provide the right amenities. Just look at 1611 W Division, starting at $1500 for a 550 SF studio. One bedrooms in 1611 W Division start at $1795.
Guess what one bedrooms in Optima Streeterville start at? $1,800/month... Please explain to me again how you account for the fact that they have virtually the same pricing, yet are several miles difference from downtown? I am willing to bet the developers of the project in Lakeview are assuming they can get similar rents to 1611 W Division.
Trust me, I do this whole "real estate" thing for a living. Most people are concerned with what amenities they get and not so concerned with how close to downtown they are. As long as it is within about a 30-40 min commute, most people don't care how far from the office they are.
Sorry for the long rant, I'll stop now since I have to go down to Aqua to tour a condo I am helping a friend look at renting there. Guess why he is interested in Aqua despite the fact that 1 BR's fetch about $2400/mo there (way more than Optima)? Because he wants the full suite of amenities Aqua has (spa, outdoor pool, access to all the hotel benefits, etc) which a place like Optima does not have. This is a micro example of what I am talking about. Aqua is just down the street from Optima, but is 20% more expensive. Why? Because it has more amenities. The same thing applies with neighborhoods. People don't just blindly choose to live places based on proximity to downtown, they choose to live places because they are good places to live!
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