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  #1621  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2020, 6:31 PM
s211 s211 is offline
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
West Broadway feels back to normal.
There's been a pretty hefty increase in the homeless population in the Shoppers Drug block; quite startling. 800 block?
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  #1622  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2020, 6:40 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is online now
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Originally Posted by s211 View Post
There's been a pretty hefty increase in the homeless population in the Shoppers Drug block; quite startling. 800 block?
Always been there to my knowledge, but maybe.
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  #1623  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2020, 8:10 PM
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Originally Posted by officedweller View Post
I've been into the office (TD Tower) quite a bit, but haven't gone into the mall (but then again, I didn't much before, either).

The sidewalks are getting busier though.
Only that area appears a little busier, mostly because of the train stations nearby, but many other areas are still pretty dead, and as a result, many shops had their glass doors or windows bashed in. I was walking through Gastown and up Richards towards West Georgia yesterday evening and I mostly came across riff-raffs, and a few people doing drugs. It felt like a quieter DTES.

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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Always been there to my knowledge, but maybe.
Not like that at all when I used to work around there five years ago.
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  #1624  
Old Posted Aug 5, 2020, 9:43 PM
Vin Vin is offline
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Again this defies expectations......

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/metr...tics-july-2020

I bet most of the sales occur in the suburb municipalities.
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  #1625  
Old Posted Aug 5, 2020, 9:48 PM
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  #1626  
Old Posted Aug 5, 2020, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Vin View Post
Again this defies expectations......

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/metr...tics-july-2020

I bet most of the sales occur in the suburb municipalities.
So during an economic crisis where many, many people have lost their jobs in the region (or have received a reduced income); I'm suppose to believe that there were hordes of Canadian citizens sitting on cash waiting conveniently to spend in July that ultimately drives up the price per home (increased by 4.5% for all homes)? Please.

Now that I have got that out of my system, I'm just going to fall back into my comfortable reading-role on this thread.
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  #1627  
Old Posted Aug 5, 2020, 11:29 PM
CivicBlues CivicBlues is offline
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Originally Posted by scryer View Post
So during an economic crisis where many, many people have lost their jobs in the region (or have received a reduced income); I'm suppose to believe that there were hordes of Canadian citizens sitting on cash waiting conveniently to spend in July that ultimately drives up the price per home (increased by 4.5% for all homes)? Please.

Now that I have got that out of my system, I'm just going to fall back into my comfortable reading-role on this thread.
That or the purchasers of real estate normally have high paying jobs that can be worked remotely. The ones losing their jobs wouldn't have been buying any way. But sure, it's definitely more foreigners than ever now coming here in droves buying up properties sight unseen since the borders are closed.
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  #1628  
Old Posted Aug 5, 2020, 11:36 PM
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For those who wonder what's being referenced; The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver announced July sales were 3,128 in total; higher than last month; more than July last year, and above the 10-year average for July. The price of detached homes was 5% higher than a year ago, and sales of detached homes was 33% more than July last year. Apartment prices were 4.2% higher than a year ago, and there were 12.6% more sold than in July 2019.

Of the 3,128 sales, 814 were in the City of Vancouver (so 26% of total sales). Last July of the 2,557 properties sold, 763 were in Vancouver, so 30% of total sales. That suggests there wasn't any significant change in the proportion of sales in suburban municipalities. (The 2016 census showed Vancouver had only 22% of the GVRD's owner occupied homes).

Housing market commentators suggest that home sales in July were higher than usual because they were significantly down in the first six months of the year, especially in the past two months, so this is just the market playing 'catch-up'. Mortgage rates are as low as almost ever - Tangerine are offering a 1.99% 5-year fixed term deal.

This isn't just a Vancouver phenomenon. The same jump in July was seen in Toronto. Other markets have yet to report their sales data.
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  #1629  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2020, 2:33 AM
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Space, access to outdoors drawing homebuyers to B.C.'s Interior during pandemic

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Property sales in B.C.'s Interior are on the rise, and real estate agents say a growing number of their clients are people looking for more space to wait out the COVID-19 pandemic.

After a spring dip attributed to the coronavirus, residential sales in the Okanagan and Shuswap regions increased in both June and July, according to new numbers released by the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board.

In June, buyers purchased 791 units, up from 446 sold in May and 725 sold in June 2019.

July saw that number rise to 917, an increase from 810 in July 2019. The majority of sales were single-family homes.

Kim Heizmann, a Kelowna-based real estate agent and president of the board, attributed the increase to people looking for a change after experiencing life in lockdown.

She said the many of her clients are relocating from the Lower Mainland and Calgary following months working and socializing online in cramped urban quarters.

"If we do a second wave and a lockdown, [they're saying], 'We don't want to be locked down in the city,'" she said.

Tyler Hancock, a Realtor in Creston, B.C., and president of the Kootenay Association of Realtors, said he's hearing similar comments from his clients. He said while Albertans usually make up the bulk of new buyers in the area, he's seen an increase in sales to people from the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island.

"A lot of people that had to go into work are now able to work from home, so they're saying, 'Hey, if I can work from home, I'm going to choose an area that's more comfortable,'" he said.

"Our geographic distances are much further apart. We've got more acreages, you're not in multi-family homes, you've got more space."

...
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  #1630  
Old Posted Aug 8, 2020, 8:09 PM
scryer scryer is offline
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Originally Posted by CivicBlues View Post
The ones losing their jobs wouldn't have been buying any way. But sure, it's definitely more foreigners than ever now coming here in droves buying up properties sight unseen since the borders are closed.
You mean like retail, restaurant, bar, etc business owners wouldn't have purchasing power? Well that kind of says a lot about the livability of the region then .
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  #1631  
Old Posted Aug 8, 2020, 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by scryer View Post
You mean like retail, restaurant, bar, etc business owners wouldn't have purchasing power? Well that kind of says a lot about the livability of the region then .
One can see the arrogance of those who clearly think "that laid-off Filpino hotel chambermaid couldn't afford to buy a place anyway". They don't get that it can be a multigenerational purchase with parents, kids and grandparents pitching in. While they might not be buying an overpriced swish Vancouver House condo, they could be buying an older home in Surrey or Maple Ridge.
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  #1632  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2020, 12:30 AM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
One can see the arrogance of those who clearly think "that laid-off Filpino hotel chambermaid couldn't afford to buy a place anyway". They don't get that it can be a multigenerational purchase with parents, kids and grandparents pitching in. While they might not be buying an overpriced swish Vancouver House condo, they could be buying an older home in Surrey or Maple Ridge.
Exactly. There was more than one road to Rome.

However a region should be liveable enough for anyone working a decent full time job (35k+) to be able to afford a place, nevermind the rent. It's clearly an un-reachable fleeting dream if you live in a region working a decent full-time job and need to depend on others to financially support your move into a decent living place. Part of this is because the living expenses (read: rent) in Metro Vancouver are already astronomical and a lot of these jobs that were worked by regular tax paying citizens disappeared with the pandemic. The jobs that pay out 80k+ are few and far between and those are really the only folks that are able to afford to buy in the region.

Therefore the sudden surge in home purchases across the board just don't make no sense at all and I don't believe in coincidences when it comes to the RE industry. I simply cannot be convinced that the majority of people who make under 80k+ a year were sitting on a pile of cash - or that their relatives were sitting on a pile of cash waiting to dole it this summer of all times.
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  #1633  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2020, 1:12 AM
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Originally Posted by scryer View Post
The sudden surge in home purchases across the board just don't make no sense at all and I don't believe in coincidences when it comes to the RE industry. I simply cannot be convinced that the majority of people who make under 80k+ a year were sitting on a pile of cash - or that their relatives were sitting on a pile of cash waiting to dole it this summer of all times.
Your conspiracy theory - whatever it is - doesn't really relate to what happened though. Just over 3,000 houses and apartments sold in a month, after two months with lower than average sales numbers. Many of the buyers will have sold a property in order to buy. Some will be trading up, some will be downsizing, some will be first time buyers. There are several hundred thousand households in the REBGV area, and more than half those households are homeowners. Three thousand sales is a tiny proportion of the total properties, and doesn't require people earning under $80K to be sitting on piles of cash.
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  #1634  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2020, 3:05 PM
dreambrother808 dreambrother808 is offline
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I see friends looking for deals. None that I know have bought but I imagine many are in that boat and likely buying. There are also those who want to get out now, who have lost their jobs or AirBnB income perhaps. That is a good combination for higher housing sales.

The price increases don't align with this theory but those buying aren't necessarily aware of that at the time of purchase. Each individual may perceive a good deal and some in fact may be.

I am more curious about the next few years though. We aren't truly suffering the potential economic impact of COVID yet. We may roar back to life and avoid a temporarily worse fate but nothing is certain right now.
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  #1635  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2020, 5:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Changing City View Post
Your conspiracy theory - whatever it is - doesn't really relate to what happened though. Just over 3,000 houses and apartments sold in a month, after two months with lower than average sales numbers.
The ad-hominem attack on my post really does speak to the kind of quality that I would expect someone to resort to when trying to deny the housing crisis:

Mortgages Sandbox
Vancouver Courier
CTV News
Workopolis
Daily Hive 1
Daily Hive 2
Money After Graduation
604 Now

And there are plenty more analyses on there as well... Do you seriously need me to throw up some screens of RE listings and mortgage calculators just to drive home the point that the RE industry is out of reach for the average worker or can I trust that you can do that yourself?

By the way, I am totally expecting you to hit back and try to nit-pick and claim that some of the link articles are from 2018 or earlier. Please go ahead and criticize each of the links because I am more than happy to provide links of real time listings, mortgage calculator results, and glassdoor wages .


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Originally Posted by Changing City View Post
Many of the buyers will have sold a property in order to buy. Some will be trading up, some will be downsizing, some will be first time buyers. There are several hundred thousand households in the REBGV area, and more than half those households are homeowners.
You are out of touch if you seriously think that any generation younger than maybe Gen X are able to afford their first home on a salary under 80k, especially if they have to rent just to live in the region. Trying to paint the housing crisis situation as something that is so diverse and individualistic, that it is immune to criticism and public outrage is irresponsible as a free thinking citizen. Remember: the Millennial and younger generations are already entering into the professional workplace and they will be demanding answers as to why their quality of life has significantly disintegrated from the generation before them. And if they're not, they should be.

And by the way, right now we are in a recession and with Dr. Tam's call for masks for 2-3 years after a vaccine, we will be in a recession for much longer - and yet somehow there are rising housing prices and no legitimate strategy to salvage some sort of an economy for the people that are supposedly purchasing these homes? Hmm... something isn't right and I don't need a PHD in Economics or Medicine to figure out that Canadian quality of life (specifically housing) is disintegrating quite quickly for the younger generations in major cities.

Switching my tone: do you know for a fact that these buyers were selling a property, trading up, or downsizing (in Metro Van - yeah, right!)? You have to also remember that a lot of those homeowners in the REBGV area are also generational owners who pass down their homes downwards. And like you said, a lot of these owners would have received financial help from their family - again supporting the notion that Metro Van is unaffordable to the average person working a job that pays like 35k+.
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Last edited by scryer; Aug 9, 2020 at 6:03 PM.
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  #1636  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2020, 6:16 PM
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There was an article in the Sun on some trends:

...Stephen Punwasi, a prominent Canadian market analyst and director of Better Dwelling, recently said, “Greater Vancouver real-estate sales are returning to pre-pandemic levels, but prices are still falling” compared to their overall peak a couple of years earlier.

Most analysts owe the drop in 2019 at least in part to the cumulative effects of the B.C. government’s 20-per-cent foreign-buyers tax, as well as its speculation and vacancy tax, which targets “satellite” households in which breadwinners earn most of their wealth offshore but pay minimal Canadian income taxes.

Despite the slight June-July upturn in sales of detached homes in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, the volume of sales is still almost half what it was in 2016. And the average price for a detached home in July in the north of the Fraser parts of Metro was about $1.6 million. That is exceptionally high compared to most cities around the world, but it’s below the peak of $1.83 million three and four years ago....

.....I think there is less demand for condo towers now, since many people who buy in condo towers are investors,” said Wong.

“So, with Airbnbs not doing well here, and people losing jobs and rents coming down, many people who own condo units want to sell.”

An exceptional number of condos, 2,964, flooded into the market in July. “Greater Vancouver has seen its biggest single-month surge of inventory in half a decade,” Punwasi said in a recent analysis.

“Everybody had the same idea — sell, in June. … New listings are hitting the market at such a rapid pace it’s killing price gains.”..


https://vancouversun.com/opinion/col...covid-19-world
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  #1637  
Old Posted Aug 9, 2020, 9:32 PM
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Originally Posted by scryer View Post
The ad-hominem attack on my post really does speak to the kind of quality that I would expect someone to resort to when trying to deny the housing crisis:
It's not meant as an ad hominem attack. I'm not denying the continued disconnect between average household wages and home purchase prices in the GVRD (Household income is however more than double what you suggested - The median total income for households in Metro Vancouver was $72,662 in 2015).

When you make comments like "I'm suppose to believe that there were hordes of Canadian citizens sitting on cash waiting conveniently to spend in July" and "the sudden surge in home purchases across the board just don't make no sense at all and I don't believe in coincidences when it comes to the RE industry." it suggests you believe that the reported sales numbers are wrong. That seems to suggest some sort of conspiracy involving the RE industry.

I'm suggesting that one month's slightly higher sales numbers after several months of low numbers are just the market playing 'catch up'. There were still fewer sales in the first 7 months of 2020 than any other year in the past 20 years - except in 2019, which saw a really low start to the year and then picked up again in the fall and winter.

Here's an agent's take: "There’s truth to the pent-up demand story as buyers who normally would have pulled the trigger in the spring were pushed into the summer thanks to COVID. In fact, July was the busiest month of the year for home sales in 2020. It was also the busiest month so far for new listings. Realtors were run off their feet in July, in what is normally a slower time of the year. So yes, the spring market came unnaturally late this year, making it difficult to predict if this demand is sustainable as we move forward into the last part of 2020. The big driver of housing activity right now appears to be cheap credit and a desire to increase living standards as people spend more time at home."

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Originally Posted by scryer View Post
Switching my tone: do you know for a fact that these buyers were selling a property, trading up, or downsizing (in Metro Van - yeah, right!)? You have to also remember that a lot of those homeowners in the REBGV area are also generational owners who pass down their homes downwards. And like you said, a lot of these owners would have received financial help from their family - again supporting the notion that Metro Van is unaffordable to the average person working a job that pays like 35k+.
Just over 3,000 pre-owned homes were bought. First time buyers made up less than 10% of the market in 2018. [source]. So most buyers already have a home somewhere, and logically the majority are selling in order to finance their purchase. (It doesn't seem logical in the present market that many sales of pre-owned homes are to speculators. Nobody's buying to rent on AirB&B). Of course some in Greater Vancouver are downsizing. House owners tend to be older. Some have to move to a care home. Some die. Some become widows, or widowers. Some retire and buy a smaller home in Parksville (for example). I know one family who sold their west-side house a few years ago, bought one on the east side (very slightly smaller) for half the cost, and two apartments, one for each of their 20-something kids. While those sorts of circumstances may have been impacted by the pandemic they haven't stopped.

I have friends who moved from the West End to a slightly smaller retirement apartment in White Rock, delaying their sale and purchase from April to July. I have neighbours who are trying to buy something with more space for their family, now the kids are growing older, so their house has come on the market. They'll take whatever capital they accumulated in their present house (probably at least $200,000 in the past three years) and the fact that interest rates are significantly lower than when they bought three years ago, and they'll be able to buy a more expensive home, even if their wages haven't changed.

Average incomes, or median incomes, and average or median house prices don't really explain the overall housing market activity, and certainly not in any one month.
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  #1638  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2020, 10:36 PM
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Some interesting data spun out of July's numbers:

@SteveSaretsky
Here’s a COVID trend for you. Downtown Vancouver condo sales collapsed, falling 18% Y/Y in July. House sales in the Fraser Valley surged 56%.


https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/st...41854099025921
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  #1639  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2020, 2:01 AM
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Originally Posted by scryer View Post
Exactly. There was more than one road to Rome.

However a region should be liveable enough for anyone working a decent full time job (35k+) to be able to afford a place, nevermind the rent. It's clearly an un-reachable fleeting dream if you live in a region working a decent full-time job and need to depend on others to financially support your move into a decent living place. Part of this is because the living expenses (read: rent) in Metro Vancouver are already astronomical and a lot of these jobs that were worked by regular tax paying citizens disappeared with the pandemic. The jobs that pay out 80k+ are few and far between and those are really the only folks that are able to afford to buy in the region.

Therefore the sudden surge in home purchases across the board just don't make no sense at all and I don't believe in coincidences when it comes to the RE industry. I simply cannot be convinced that the majority of people who make under 80k+ a year were sitting on a pile of cash - or that their relatives were sitting on a pile of cash waiting to dole it this summer of all times.
I wouldn't put too much weight in just one month of real estate stats. A month is meaningless in real estate.
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  #1640  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2020, 2:27 AM
Vin Vin is offline
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Originally Posted by cabotp View Post
I wouldn't put too much weight in just one month of real estate stats. A month is meaningless in real estate.
If so, how many months of data would be "meaningful"? Fact is, the trend of home sales continues.

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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Some interesting data spun out of July's numbers:

@SteveSaretsky
Here’s a COVID trend for you. Downtown Vancouver condo sales collapsed, falling 18% Y/Y in July. House sales in the Fraser Valley surged 56%.


https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/st...41854099025921
That goes without saying, since the Fraser Valley keeps producing more affordable high-density housing. However, prices remain pretty firm downtown.
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