How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City?

[Pedestrian]

Bay Area counties urge employers to require universal COVID-19 vaccination policies
Chase DiFeliciantonio
July 22, 2021
Updated: July 22, 2021 6:48 p.m.

The health officers of Contra Costa, Santa Clara and San Francisco counties urged all employers to consider requiring employees to get vaccinated for the coronavirus Thursday as cases rapidly rise. Officials said almost all cases and hospitalizations were in unvaccinated populations.

A state workplace safety committee heard last week that virus cases have been increasing in workplaces across California, as the highly infectious delta variant continues to spread.

“Workers who are unvaccinated against COVID-19 pose a substantial health and financial risk to the workplace,” Dr. Chris Farnitano, Contra Costa County’s health officer, said in a statement. “Most importantly, workplace exposures have led to serious illnesses and deaths.”

The health officials said in a release that employers can play a critical role in increasing vaccination rates by requiring the shots as a condition of employment, something the federal government has said they can do with exceptions for health issues and religious beliefs.

“A universal vaccination policy may benefit businesses because the quarantine requirements are different for vaccinated and unvaccinated workers,” Dr. Susan Philip, San Francisco’s health officer, said in a statement. “Currently, an employee who is not vaccinated must quarantine for at least 10 days if exposed to someone who tested positive, whereas fully vaccinated workers do not need to quarantine unless they have symptoms” . . . .

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/a...e-16332986.php

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

First of all, each replication of the virus is an opportunity for a critical mutation. Second, in the billions of people worldwide who have or will get infected, in each of whom there can be billions of replications, there will be 10 to the ? (12th, 15th?) power chances for a critical mutation. And we don't even know what a critical mutation might be--the real issue is how different the mutated spike protein would have to be, either chemically or stereotypically, from the original protein to be unaffected by antibodies toward the original.

But given the number of chances for a critical mutation, calculations like "tail risk" mean almost nothing. A better analogy is the one about an infinite number of monkeys pounding on an infinite number of typewriters producing Shakespeare's plays or the Bible. The number of replications = critical mutation opportunities may not be infinite, but it's unimaginably huge and that means it's likely that eventually a breakthrough mutation will happen. That isn't disastrous: It will probably be fairly easy to produce a new vaccine that's effective against it but the issue will be how much testing and red tape governments put in front of the ability to start using a new vaccine quickly.

While all of this is true, there is no particular reason for a more deadly variant to be selected for. Viruses are selected for infectiousness - the potentially deadly immune response neither helps nor hinders it generally speaking. This means that a variant like Delta which can infect the unvaccinated, but causes asymptomatic or mild cases, works good enough to continue widely spreading, and likely won't be crowded out by a strain with similar virulence but an easier time circumventing the vaccines.

[the urban politician]

Mandating the vaccine is really the best hope. Obviously we can’t grab people and force them to get shots, but making it so that life is very difficult without a vaccine should be a strategy.

Some thoughts for US States:

1. Mandate a vaccine card to enter drivers license renewal facilities
2. Heck, require a vaccine card to enter any State or Federal building or office
3. All schools, Universities, Colleges need to require vaccine for 12 and older
4. To get the die hard Trumpians, require proof of vaccination to renew hunting or fishing licenses, for commercial driving licenses (truckers, etc)
5. Proof of vaccination needed for all trade incense renewals (GC, plumbing, electrical, etc) as well as most other licenses that involve working with the public (medical, dental, dental hygienist, hairstyling, pharmaceutical, tattoo parlor, liquor, etc)

I realize these are a long shot and legally questionable, but we need to get creative with the vaccine hesitant fucktards

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by eschaton

While all of this is true, there is no particular reason for a more deadly variant to be selected for. Viruses are selected for infectiousness - the potentially deadly immune response neither helps nor hinders it generally speaking. This means that a variant like Delta which can infect the unvaccinated, but causes asymptomatic or mild cases, works good enough to continue widely spreading, and likely won't be crowded out by a strain with similar virulence but an easier time circumventing the vaccines.

Exactly. Good luck convincing the general public or most of the people here of this obvious point. Most people are too caught up in this Sci-Fi-esque hysteria of “the deadly mutant is coming, run for your lives!” Fear is one of the most potent weapons out there.

[10023]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Mandating the vaccine is really the best hope. Obviously we can’t grab people and force them to get shots, but making it so that life is very difficult without a vaccine should be a strategy.

Some thoughts for US States:

1. Mandate a vaccine card to enter drivers license renewal facilities
2. Heck, require a vaccine card to enter any State or Federal building or office
3. All schools, Universities, Colleges need to require vaccine for 12 and older
4. To get the die hard Trumpians, require proof of vaccination to renew hunting or fishing licenses, for commercial driving licenses (truckers, etc)
5. Proof of vaccination needed for all trade incense renewals (GC, plumbing, electrical, etc) as well as most other licenses that involve working with the public (medical, dental, dental hygienist, hairstyling, pharmaceutical, tattoo parlor, liquor, etc)

I realize these are a long shot and legally questionable, but we need to get creative with the vaccine hesitant fucktards

I don’t even think we need to, or should, cross that particular rubicon.

- We have vaccines that are widely available and free
- The vaccines provide very strong protection against serious illness or death; 98% of hospital admissions in the US are now unvaccinated people
- The healthcare system is no longer under significant strain due to Covid
- Younger people were never in any meaningful danger from Covid
- It is extremely unlikely for the virus to mutate into a highly vaccine-resistant variant in the near term
- It is practically impossible to completely eliminate Covid globally through vaccination

All of this taken together means we’re done.

You offer people the vaccine, they can have it or take their chances. Vaccinated people aren’t actually at risk from infected people around them - that’s the point of the vaccines.

While a vaccine-resistant strain is theoretically possible, it’s very unlikely to just emerge all of a sudden. Perhaps with mutation on mutation on mutation, if we’re unlucky, but that would take time and the scientific/medical community will obviously be monitoring it and developing targeted boosters as necessary.

Further lockdowns should not be tolerated, this mask-wearing nonsense needs to end, and there is no justification for the step toward authoritarianism that vaccine mandates entail.

[xzmattzx]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

“Workers who are unvaccinated against COVID-19 pose a substantial health and financial risk to the workplace,” Dr. Chris Farnitano, Contra Costa County’s health officer, said in a statement. “Most importantly, workplace exposures have led to serious illnesses and deaths.”

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/a...e-16332986.php

1. What if those workers are "essential", like so many people were in the spring and summer of 2020, before any vaccine?
2. The second sentence can be changed to justify never leaving the house: "Most importantly, workplace commutes have led to serious injuries and deaths." Now you have justified never driving to work.

[10023]

^ Plus those serious illnesses and deaths took place pre- vaccines. If they take place now it’s only the unvaccinated individual that would suffer, and that’s their own damn fault.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Mandating the vaccine is really the best hope. Obviously we can’t grab people and force them to get shots, but making it so that life is very difficult without a vaccine should be a strategy.

Some thoughts for US States:

1. Mandate a vaccine card to enter drivers license renewal facilities
2. Heck, require a vaccine card to enter any State or Federal building or office
3. All schools, Universities, Colleges need to require vaccine for 12 and older
4. To get the die hard Trumpians, require proof of vaccination to renew hunting or fishing licenses, for commercial driving licenses (truckers, etc)
5. Proof of vaccination needed for all trade incense renewals (GC, plumbing, electrical, etc) as well as most other licenses that involve working with the public (medical, dental, dental hygienist, hairstyling, pharmaceutical, tattoo parlor, liquor, etc)

I realize these are a long shot and legally questionable, but we need to get creative with the vaccine hesitant fucktards

Just having enough companies start to require vaccination as a condition of employment will be enough. We're getting close to that becoming commonplace.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by xzmattzx

1. What if those workers are "essential", like so many people were in the spring and summer of 2020, before any vaccine?

They put themselves at risk and should be rewarded with extra pay, unless COVID isn't a big deal. COVID must be a big deal in order to ask these kind of questions.

2. The second sentence can be changed to justify never leaving the house: "Most importantly, workplace commutes have led to serious injuries and deaths." Now you have justified never driving to work.

The lockdowns saved a lot of these kind of deaths from happening more lockdowns?
As per the thread we lead CA in new cases I guess, so my county is adapting bay area rules. The masks are coming and I have a pack ready to go in my truck.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Just having enough companies start to require vaccination as a condition of employment will be enough. We're getting close to that becoming commonplace.

What if people in the trailer parks don't have a job? Asking for my area.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by TWAK

What if people in the trailer parks don't have a job? Asking for my area.

Great is the enemy of good. We really just need to get to good (+80% vaxxed). If we get to great (100%) then that's great, but that's probably not a realistic goal. But, whenever those people want to get a job they'll probably eventually be required to prove that they got vaccinated.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Great is the enemy of good. We really just need to get to good (+80% vaxxed). If we get to great (100%) then that's great, but that's probably not a realistic goal. But, whenever those people want to get a job they'll probably eventually be required to prove that they got vaccinated.

What should the real herd immunity be, if 80% is good? I was under the impression that after 70% we are fully back to normal. My area just passed 50% and it seems everybody is firm with their vaccine position for now.

[homebucket]

80% is probably not a reasonable goal at this point, if we're talking about America as a whole. Sure, there might be some neighborhoods, cities, or even metro areas with 80%+ vaccination rates (even the high vaccine uptake Bay Area is still only at 77% fully vaccinated for ages 12+), but as you zoom out, CA is only at 63% fully vaccinated for ages 18+.

The US right now is only at 60% fully vaccinated for ages 18+ and 57% for ages 12+.

Like TWAK said, everybody is likely firm with their vaccine position right now, so I don't see how we'll ever get to 80%.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by TWAK

What should the real herd immunity be, if 80% is good? I was under the impression that after 70% we are fully back to normal. My area just passed 50% and it seems everybody is firm with their vaccine position for now.

The R value of Delta is much, much higher than regular COVID. Each infected person infects 10 or more people - basically everyone they come into contact with who is unvaccinated plus some who were vaccinated as well, because they shed 1200 times more virus.

A higher R value means a much higher proportion of the general public needs to be immune/resistant (either due to prior infection or vaccines) before it burns itself out.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by eschaton

While all of this is true, there is no particular reason for a more deadly variant to be selected for. Viruses are selected for infectiousness - the potentially deadly immune response neither helps nor hinders it generally speaking. This means that a variant like Delta which can infect the unvaccinated, but causes asymptomatic or mild cases, works good enough to continue widely spreading, and likely won't be crowded out by a strain with similar virulence but an easier time circumventing the vaccines.

"More" or "less deadly" has little to do with it. The ability to escape neutralization by the vaccines does. A strain which can escape neutralization would be far more infectious. The delta and lambda strains actually have that to a mild degree but eventually it seems likely strains with it to an even higher degree will randomly happen.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by homebucket

80% is probably not a reasonable goal at this point, if we're talking about America as a whole. Sure, there might be some neighborhoods, cities, or even metro areas with 80%+ vaccination rates (even the high vaccine uptake Bay Area is still only at 77% fully vaccinated for ages 12+), but as you zoom out, CA is only at 63% fully vaccinated for ages 18+.

The US right now is only at 60% fully vaccinated for ages 18+ and 57% for ages 12+.

Like TWAK said, everybody is likely firm with their vaccine position right now, so I don't see how we'll ever get to 80%.

We are going to get to high degrees of immunity because most people who don't get vaccinated are going to get covid and with the infectiousness of delta that may happen quicker than many think.

The delta strain of SARS-CoV-2 is now probably more infectious that was the Spanish Flu. That burned itself out after 2 years and 2 waves. I suspect the current wave of covid could be the last in the developed world UNLESS a strain emerges that is substantially different immunologically though if that happens there's no telling if it is more deadly or less deadly. It could actually produce a milder illness--something humans could just live with.

[dave8721]

Effects of businesses downsizing their space and going to hybrid work from home schedules continues to be felt. I wonder how permanent it will be?
https://therealdeal.com/miami/2021/0...ession-levels/

Miami office vacancy rates reach Great Recession levels

Office vacancy rates in Miami-Dade County are hitting highs not seen since the Great Recession, according to a pair of recent market reports.

A June report by the Commercial Industrial Association of South Florida, or CIASF, found that the vacancy rate for Class A office space jumped above 20 percent in the first quarter, a height not seen since the last building boom of 2008-2009 that coincided with the financial crisis.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

"More" or "less deadly" has little to do with it. The ability to escape neutralization by the vaccines does. A strain which can escape neutralization would be far more infectious. The delta and lambda strains actually have that to a mild degree but eventually it seems likely strains with it to an even higher degree will randomly happen.

Most unvaccinated people globally are in areas where the vast majority of people are still unvaccinated - meaning there is limited utility for the virus to mutate in such a way to circumvent vaccines...yet.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

"More" or "less deadly" has little to do with it.

^ And this is where you repeatedly and, mind-numbingly, just fail to grasp what others are saying.

Being "deadly" has EVERYTHING to do with it. I don't get how this idea keeps sailing way over your head. If catching COVID (for vaccinated people) does not cause any meaningful death rate above, say, common cold or Flu or RSV, then there is nothing more to care about.

But I'm sure you still don't get it, because you are being willfully obstinate about this particular issue.

[the urban politician]

July 23, 2021
Put away the COVID-shot carrots. It's time for some sticks.

Lottery tickets and amusement park passes have only gotten us so far. To reach herd immunity against COVID-19 and rescue the economy from another downturn, employers must mandate vaccines.
CRAIN'S EDITORIAL BOARD

Governments may not be able to require people to get vaccinated, but it’s beginning to look like employers can. And it’s in the business community’s interest to do so.

Another surge in COVID-19 cases will do widespread damage to an economy that’s only just recovering from the worst phases of the pandemic. With the highly transmissible Delta variant now circulating widely and other variants emerging, COVID case counts, hospitalizations and deaths are moving in the wrong direction nationwide, particularly in regions where vaccination rates are stubbornly low.

The only way to avoid a financial, social and, frankly, emotionally devastating return to lockdown is to get the maximum number of people possible immunized. Vaccine resisters may think they are putting no one but themselves at risk, but they are in fact walking variant factories, and even if they’re skeptical of the guidance coming from doctors and scientists, they should be able to trust the evidence before their own eyes: More than 162 million people in this country have received coronavirus vaccines that were in development well before the COVID-19 virus emerged. Those people are pretty much able to live their lives now without fear of being hospitalized or killed by the virus.

The virus now is almost exclusively killing people who haven’t been vaccinated. As Crain’s Stephanie Goldberg reported July 22, the Chicago Department of Public Health has begun releasing the rates of infections, hospitalizations and deaths among residents based on vaccination status. The figures show that as of that writing, no COVID-related deaths had been reported among the vaccinated population in July, and more than 95 percent of COVID hospitalizations and deaths in Chicago were among unvaccinated residents.

Here in Chicago, only 51.5 percent of residents are fully vaccinated; statewide, that number rests at 50.1 percent. That's a better level than many areas of the country, but still far short of the 70 percent threshold that's widely considered to be the goal of public health officials seeking herd immunity. The city and the state have tried every form of incentive to get people vaccinated, from handing out amusement park tickets to offering to vaccinate people in their homes, and yet vaccine distribution has essentially flatlined.

As case counts rise nationwide, Los Angeles has reinstituted mask mandates, a path no major metropolitan area should want to go down now that we’ve tasted the freedom of breathing fresh air without hindrance. The good news is, we have the tools at our disposal to avoid L.A.’s fate. We have safe and effective vaccines.

The time for enticing vaccine refuseniks with lottery tickets and Little Dipper rides at Great America should be over. Of course, there are people with medically defensible reasons to take a pass on the jab. For everyone else, the excuses are starting to wear a little thin, and their hesitancy threatens to tank the economy again. In New York, Mayor Bill de Blasio is calling on private employers to impose vaccine mandates. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot can and should do the same here.

For the sake of our shared economic well-being—not to mention the well-being of our beleaguered health care workers—Chicago's business leaders must declare they’re on the side of science and require employees returning to the office to get these lifesaving vaccines.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/opin...me-some-sticks

[twister244]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Effects of businesses downsizing their space and going to hybrid work from home schedules continues to be felt. I wonder how permanent it will be?
https://therealdeal.com/miami/2021/0...ession-levels/

It's definitely hard to tell where things head from here. My prediction is less mass leasing of major space by smaller companies, with a move towards the use of co-working spaces. Maybe bigger companies with money keep their signature spaces (the Chases of the world). I suspect more and more people though will want to be in an office environment, but not necessarily cubicles with co-workers.

I keep advocating my model I am following where I go into WeWorks to work. I am around people, there's socialization, but they aren't my co workers. I can see a future where people come in a couple days, pow-wow in conference rooms, or in spaces for a couple days, then work from home the rest of the week.

Then again, we will see .... I could be completely off in my predictions.