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  #1641  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2020, 5:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Vin View Post
That goes without saying, since the Fraser Valley keeps producing more affordable high-density housing. However, prices remain pretty firm downtown.
I don't think that's his point. He's pointing out that people are keen to buy detached houses in the Fraser Valley (sales up 56% compared to last July, and prices higher too), but less keen to buy apartments Downtown with 18% fewer sales than last July). He doesn't say whether prices have changed for those. Read the whole article for more details.
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  #1642  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2020, 4:50 AM
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If so, how many months of data would be "meaningful"? Fact is, the trend of home sales continues.
At a minimum 1 year with a monthly average. After that a yearly average over a minimum of 5 years.
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  #1643  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2020, 4:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Changing City View Post
I don't think that's his point. He's pointing out that people are keen to buy detached houses in the Fraser Valley (sales up 56% compared to last July, and prices higher too), but less keen to buy apartments Downtown with 18% fewer sales than last July). He doesn't say whether prices have changed for those. Read the whole article for more details.
I think the work from home idea is a big factor in this.
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  #1644  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2020, 5:33 AM
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yes, here is a related article.

How Working From Home Is Changing The Way We Think About Where We Live

Quote:
Urban lovers are giving up what they prize about city lifestyle to save money. The Hanley Wood survey also asked if employees would consider moving to a new home if they were allowed a permanent remote work situation—more than 36% said yes.

That number shoots up to 55% when respondents were asked if they would move if they currently lived in an expensive market and could go all remote. The affordability of the market, made a big swing in responses.
Quote:
Carmichael pointed to online data on moving trends that definitely supports the idea that people are looking for places to live outside of urban areas.

“People will seek out the big house on the hill or the larger home away from everything because of the quality of life it gives you,” Carmichael says. “You get more space, better lifestyle, maybe drive in two times per week or don’t go into the office at all.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jennife.../#3b668f1a71f1
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  #1645  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2020, 6:14 AM
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Originally Posted by cabotp View Post
I think the work from home idea is a big factor in this.
I agree, it's likely to be a factor. And anyone waiting for prices for houses to fall in the Fraser Valley will probably have realized that's unlikely to happen, and with mortgage rates as low as they are, they might as well buy sooner rather than later.

On the other hand apartment prices are certainly not increasing Downtown, and there are more options on the market as some investors are looking to sell, especially if they had short-term rental property. The new regulation on those, combined with collapse in demand must be putting more apartments into the market.
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  #1646  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2020, 3:10 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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On the other hand apartment prices are certainly not increasing Downtown, and there are more options on the market as some investors are looking to sell, especially if they had short-term rental property. The new regulation on those, combined with collapse in demand must be putting more apartments into the market.
Yes, the rental market is certainly in flux right now and that has impacts on RE sales. Somewhere around 50% of downtown condos are rentals, mostly from investor-owners that may be looking to sell.

Whether or not we see a long term shift to Work From Home is still up for debate. Commuting from the valley is not going to get any easier in the foreseeable future either.
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  #1647  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2020, 7:15 PM
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Yes, the rental market is certainly in flux right now and that has impacts on RE sales. Somewhere around 50% of downtown condos are rentals, mostly from investor-owners that may be looking to sell.

Whether or not we see a long term shift to Work From Home is still up for debate. Commuting from the valley is not going to get any easier in the foreseeable future either.
Yep, I was surprised to see this sign outside Beach Towers offering free first and last months rent!

[IMG]beachtowers by whatnextyvr, on Flickr[/IMG]
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  #1648  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2020, 11:37 PM
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Yep, I was surprised to see this sign outside Beach Towers offering free first and last months rent!

[IMG]beachtowers by whatnextyvr, on Flickr[/IMG]
I’m not seeing a major shift in prices though, just some incentives like these, mostly on higher-cost units.
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  #1649  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2020, 2:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Changing City View Post
I agree, it's likely to be a factor. And anyone waiting for prices for houses to fall in the Fraser Valley will probably have realized that's unlikely to happen, and with mortgage rates as low as they are, they might as well buy sooner rather than later.

On the other hand apartment prices are certainly not increasing Downtown, and there are more options on the market as some investors are looking to sell, especially if they had short-term rental property. The new regulation on those, combined with collapse in demand must be putting more apartments into the market.
The bigger question is this going to be a long term affect. Because if it is, then Covid will have completely changed the housing / rental market.

Which goes to show you can never predict what the future may bring. As no one would of predicted this kind of change.
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  #1650  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2020, 3:04 AM
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On the downtown condo side of things, I wonder if more work from home will push buyers (who can afford it) to want slightly bigger units with dedicated office space.
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  #1651  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2020, 1:41 PM
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Originally Posted by dreambrother808 View Post
I’m not seeing a major shift in prices though, just some incentives like these, mostly on higher-cost units.
Free rent is a price cut though. It just makes it look more palatable to all of the people already living there any paying the higher rents.

Prices will come down naturally over time.
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  #1652  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2020, 3:15 PM
dreambrother808 dreambrother808 is offline
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Free rent is a price cut though. It just makes it look more palatable to all of the people already living there any paying the higher rents.

Prices will come down naturally over time.
Anecdotally, I've heard people downtown talk about high vacancies in their buildings, but landlords are sitting on those losses and waiting for a recovery rather than locking into leases now with lower profitability.
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  #1653  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2020, 3:18 PM
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Originally Posted by dreambrother808 View Post
Anecdotally, I've heard people downtown talk about high vacancies in their buildings, but landlords are sitting on those losses and waiting for a recovery rather than locking into leases now with lower profitability.
That seems weird. Letting a place sit empty for even 1-2 months adds up pretty quickly, eliminating future gains.
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  #1654  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2020, 6:02 PM
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they built a new rental building on 49th and knight, i think 30+ units, i've passed it a few times in recent months since it completed and there has been no sign of residents despite having a huge sign outside that rentals are available.
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  #1655  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2020, 6:22 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
That seems weird. Letting a place sit empty for even 1-2 months adds up pretty quickly, eliminating future gains.
The reasoning is an assumption, otherwise why not drop the rent and I'm sure someone would move to get in on something cheaper.
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  #1656  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2020, 6:33 PM
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Originally Posted by SpongeG View Post
they built a new rental building on 49th and knight, i think 30+ units, i've passed it a few times in recent months since it completed and there has been no sign of residents despite having a huge sign outside that rentals are available.
I have seen that too. It's possible they've been advertising for tenants but don't have a permit yet. You want to be at least 1 month ahead of the game, probably 2-3.
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  #1657  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2020, 7:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Changing City View Post
I don't think that's his point. He's pointing out that people are keen to buy detached houses in the Fraser Valley (sales up 56% compared to last July, and prices higher too), but less keen to buy apartments Downtown with 18% fewer sales than last July). He doesn't say whether prices have changed for those. Read the whole article for more details.
And my point is that there are not so many affordable new products downtown at the moment, and that existing owners are not really selling. Hence the huge sales drop. However prices are still up there, meaning landlords are holding on to their properties.

If landlords are really trying to get rid of downtown condos, prices will drop and there will be an increase in purchases. Using the word "collapse" to describe downtown condo sales is simply media sensationalism.
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  #1658  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2020, 8:57 PM
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just saw this,

Vacancies in Manhattan Are Piling Up — That’s Good News If You’re a Renter

https://www.curbed.com/2020/8/11/213...szqL_nNoG37YAE
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  #1659  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2020, 2:30 AM
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Originally Posted by SpongeG View Post
they built a new rental building on 49th and knight, i think 30+ units, i've passed it a few times in recent months since it completed and there has been no sign of residents despite having a huge sign outside that rentals are available.
Are you sure you don't mean 41st and Knight?
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  #1660  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2020, 3:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Vin View Post
And my point is that there are not so many affordable new products downtown at the moment, and that existing owners are not really selling. Hence the huge sales drop. However prices are still up there, meaning landlords are holding on to their properties.

If landlords are really trying to get rid of downtown condos, prices will drop and there will be an increase in purchases. Using the word "collapse" to describe downtown condo sales is simply media sensationalism.
The Saretsky Report (July 2020) on condos: "The real concern here is the massive increase in new listings for the month. New listings jumped 36% year-over-year. This was the highest number of new listings for the month of July in recent record."
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