HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada > Alberta & British Columbia > Vancouver > Business & the Economy


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #1  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 12:51 AM
Vancouverisfalling Vancouverisfalling is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 17
30,000 Foreign Students(Renters)Exit Vancouver

"According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada data, there was a 30.5 percent decline in study permits—from 96,360 to 66,990—granted to international students in the first four months of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019."

Rents are falling, condo supply for sale is rising, and this is one major reason why. With most schools and universities transitioning to online learning, this trend will only increase, as students no longer need to pay tens of thousands per year in rent to receive an education from a foreign school.

https://www.straight.com/education/d...-on-bc-economy
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 1:21 AM
Changing City's Avatar
Changing City Changing City is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 1,946
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vancouverisfalling View Post
"According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada data, there was a 30.5 percent decline in study permits—from 96,360 to 66,990—granted to international students in the first four months of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019."

Rents are falling, condo supply for sale is rising, and this is one major reason why. With most schools and universities transitioning to online learning, this trend will only increase, as students no longer need to pay tens of thousands per year in rent to receive an education from a foreign school.
Does this mean the rental housing 'crisis' is (at least temporarily) solved?
__________________
Contemporary Vancouver development blog, https://changingcitybook.wordpress.com/ Then and now Vancouver blog https://changingvancouver.wordpress.com/
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #3  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 2:02 AM
jollyburger jollyburger is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 3,315
Too bad that statistic is Canada wide. And that number increased 50K from 2018-2019 to put things into perspective.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #4  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 4:48 PM
rofina rofina is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 2,330
Quote:
Originally Posted by jollyburger View Post
Too bad that statistic is Canada wide. And that number increased 50K from 2018-2019 to put things into perspective.
So our massive decrease is actually a substantial increase from levels we had just recently.

Interesting to have the benefit of perspective.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #5  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2020, 5:22 PM
trofirhen trofirhen is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 8,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by Changing City View Post
Does this mean the rental housing 'crisis' is (at least temporarily) solved?
That was about the first thought that flashed through my mind, too. What you suggest may be wishful thinking. Given that, from the attached article, most of the students are housed in homestay accomodation, there may be less of an easing up of 'mainstream' apartment rentals. Otherwise stated, it is private homestays that seem most impacted. It would seem that reguar apartments will still be either beyond the reach of most people, or else at bleed-'em-white prices.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #6  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 5:09 PM
whatnext whatnext is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 14,889
Quote:
Originally Posted by Changing City View Post
Does this mean the rental housing 'crisis' is (at least temporarily) solved?
It certainly seems as though it is having an effect in opening up rentals and lowering rents:

Rental demand takes another hit as many students stay home
MATT LUNDYECONOMICS REPORTER
PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 8, 2020

Rental housing markets across Canada are seeing weaker demand this fall as some postsecondary students pivot to online learning and stay in their hometowns, resulting in a spate of empty bedrooms and mounting losses for landlords.

Although policies differ by college or university, most have adopted a hybrid approach for the fall semester that allows a combination of online and in-person classes, with restrictions in place to reduce the spread of COVID-19. In many cases, however, students have the option of attending classes entirely online – and that has kept many from renting.

Demand from students “has completely dried up,” says Sara Hamilton, a real estate broker who frequently leases condos. Before the pandemic, most of her leasing activity in downtown Toronto came from students. “Now, there’s no interest from students at all.”

The student slowdown is contributing to broader weakness in the rental market, which has seen demand tumble during the pandemic. As a result, many units are sitting empty for longer and often get rented for less. For tenants in Canada’s priciest housing markets, the situation is a reprieve from years of low vacancies and surging rental rates...

...Rental demand is being hit on several fronts, including pandemic policies that are slowing immigration into Canada, including by international students. In the Greater Toronto Area, international students and other non-permanent residents are “very tied to what’s going on in the condo market” and play a huge role in rentals, says John Pasalis, president of brokerage Realosophy Realty.

The number of newly listed condos for lease in the GTA reached a record high in August as supply outpaced demand, according to data from consulting firm Urbanation. The average condo rent declined 9.6 per cent from a year ago, to $2,272 a month. Data from multiple listing platforms show rents declining in Vancouver, too.

The shift is apparent to brokers. Ms. Guirguis says NV tried to lease a new studio in downtown Toronto that before the pandemic would go for $2,100 a month. Given the condo is furnished and close to Ryerson University, it would normally appeal to students. Instead, it took six months to fill – and for $300 cheaper.

“On a regular day, at an $1,800 price point, I would have had a lineup,” Ms. Guirguis says
...(bold mine)


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...ost-secondary/
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #7  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 5:40 PM
jollyburger jollyburger is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 3,315
This is no different than the discussion about the future of offices. It's either a generational change or things go back to different or somewhere in between.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #8  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 7:25 PM
whatnext whatnext is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 14,889
Quote:
Originally Posted by jollyburger View Post
This is no different than the discussion about the future of offices. It's either a generational change or things go back to different or somewhere in between.
Oh, I have no doubt that students will bounce back to as before (unlike the office market).

However, it goes to show how depite the Liberals promising in the last two elections to aid home affordability in our major cities, their other policies have directly contributed to making housing unaffordable.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #9  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 7:49 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: East OV!
Posts: 13,781
Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Oh, I have no doubt that students will bounce back to as before (unlike the office market).

However, it goes to show how depite the Liberals promising in the last two elections to aid home affordability in our major cities, their other policies have directly contributed to making housing unaffordable.
Well to be fair the Liberals made changes so that people could afford homes a little more easily by giving them money and tax cuts, not reducing the price of the home.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #10  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 8:35 PM
GenWhy? GenWhy? is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 1,270
"30,000 Foreign Students(Renters)Exit Vancouver"

4% of the population of the city left?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #11  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 11:27 PM
jollyburger jollyburger is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 3,315
Quote:
Originally Posted by GenWhy? View Post
"30,000 Foreign Students(Renters)Exit Vancouver"

4% of the population of the city left?
Nation wide stat.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #12  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2020, 11:37 PM
chowhou chowhou is online now
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: North Vancouver (Across the ocean!)
Posts: 243
Quote:
Originally Posted by jollyburger View Post
Nation wide stat.
I think a mod/OP should change the title of this thread, it's very misleading.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #13  
Old Posted Sep 10, 2020, 1:26 AM
Migrant_Coconut's Avatar
Migrant_Coconut Migrant_Coconut is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Kitsilano/Fairview
Posts: 4,438
Given OP's username, it makes perfect sense.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #14  
Old Posted Sep 10, 2020, 5:59 PM
rofina rofina is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 2,330
Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Oh, I have no doubt that students will bounce back to as before (unlike the office market).

However, it goes to show how depite the Liberals promising in the last two elections to aid home affordability in our major cities, their other policies have directly contributed to making housing unaffordable.
Office market is nearly at pre-pandemic vacancy levels DT. Were back to our original issue of not enough square footage coming online that hasn't already been spoken for.

Its very much bounced back already.

I think this pandemic ultimately changes very little in that regard.

I think the largest changes will be demographic. Early retirements, and more land bought outside major city cores as people look to secure more space.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #15  
Old Posted Sep 10, 2020, 11:45 PM
logicbomb logicbomb is offline
Joshua B.
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 774
This would explain why the market for 1bdrm investment condos have absolutely tanked in the suburbs.

Was eying one for 360k and noticed it was re-listed for 328k. My agent is telling me to jump in come late fall as panic stricken buyers will be fire selling their units due the lack of rental demand.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #16  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2020, 9:21 PM
Vancouverisfalling Vancouverisfalling is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by chowhou View Post
I think a mod/OP should change the title of this thread, it's very misleading.

Rents falling across the board, this isn't even news anymore, except to people with their heads in the sand, like you.


https://www.straight.com/news/new-re...over-past-year
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #17  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2020, 9:22 PM
Vancouverisfalling Vancouverisfalling is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut View Post
Given OP's username, it makes perfect sense.
Rents falling across the board, downtown should be called Ghostown, or Trashtown.

But yeah, for the ostriches with their heads in the sand like you, all is well.


https://www.straight.com/news/new-re...over-past-year
Reply With Quote
     
     
End
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada > Alberta & British Columbia > Vancouver > Business & the Economy
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 12:54 AM.

     

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.