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  #1  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 4:51 PM
Dale Dale is offline
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Impending Recession Effect On High-Rise Projects ?

I’m just entertaining the worst-case, for the sake of discussion. I’ve read suggestions that most if not all projects not currently u/c will be suspended. Too alarmist ?

2020 saw perhaps the severest contraction on record. I thought for sure that projects would grind to a halt. Perhaps this is a different animal, what if inflationary pressures ?

Thoughts ?
     
     
  #2  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 5:02 PM
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I’m just entertaining the worst-case, for the sake of discussion. I’ve read suggestions that most if not all projects not currently u/c will be suspended. Too alarmist ?
Yes, lol.
     
     
  #3  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 5:14 PM
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That didn’t happen in the 2008 recession so that wouldn’t happen now.
     
     
  #4  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 5:17 PM
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That didn’t happen in the 2008 recession so that wouldn’t happen now.
Candidly, even in the worst case, I wouldn’t expect ALL projects to be derailed.

But in 2008, depending on your downtown, almost all projects of note evaporated. Tampa and Jacksonville come to mind.

And there are suggestions that we could see worse than 2008.
     
     
  #5  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 5:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale View Post
Candidly, even in the worst case, I wouldn’t expect ALL projects to be derailed.

But in 2008, depending on your downtown, almost all projects of note evaporated. Tampa and Jacksonville come to mind.

And there are suggestions that we could see worse than 2008.
I’m sure some did but I don’t find any records of, nor do I remember, large amounts of high rise projects being delayed. Now, that happened during the pandemic because the workers were staying home but I’m not sure how likely it will be during a recession.
     
     
  #6  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 5:32 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Dale View Post
Candidly, even in the worst case, I wouldn’t expect ALL projects to be derailed.

But in 2008, depending on your downtown, almost all projects of note evaporated. Tampa and Jacksonville come to mind.

And there are suggestions that we could see worse than 2008.
No recession is even, so I would expect that some cities would be more affected than others. I could see a scenario where some cities have all projects halted, particularly in cities with historically weak demand real estate markets.
     
     
  #7  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 5:43 PM
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What recession? We just sold a home way over asking, and are in contract on a home way over asking.
     
     
  #8  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 5:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale View Post
Candidly, even in the worst case, I wouldn’t expect ALL projects to be derailed.

But in 2008, depending on your downtown, almost all projects of note evaporated. Tampa and Jacksonville come to mind.

And there are suggestions that we could see worse than 2008.

Alot of projects were derailed. Sacramento had a tremendous number of skyline changing projects disappear and have not come back even now. Austin is the one city (maybe others) that really bucked the downturn.
I think we are at the tip of the downturn now, but hard to predict exactly how it manifests. People who need loans will be greatly affected as interest rates continue to rise over the next year, people with cash will be okay and may find bargains in a year to 18 months.
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  #9  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 5:47 PM
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"And there are suggestions that we could see worse than 2008." I have an MBA with a focus in Economics and follow way too many people in the business of economic forecasting but I have heard nothing close to this. I'm genuinely curious where you got this from? The fundamentals of the economy today are very different from what caused the Great Recession. Most of what we are seeing today are shocks related to disruptions in the supply chain after the global economy basically "flipped" open coming out of the worst of the pandemic and the related boom in consumer demand for goods that are in short supply (both from production and the issues related to delivering them such as worker and chip/part shortages). And that's without taking into account the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (which is primarily effecting gas, wheat and fertilizer). We're already seeing positive signs in easing of supply chain issues (look at the price of lumber and appliances with a cooling housing market).
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  #10  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 5:59 PM
bossabreezes bossabreezes is offline
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Strong inflation, anxious consumers add up to more worries that recession has already arrived
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/infl...eady-here.html

US set for recession next year, economists predict
https://www.ft.com/content/53fcbbf1-...2-b0de432ed5a3

For the rats who deny reality.
     
     
  #11  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 6:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tdawg View Post
"And there are suggestions that we could see worse than 2008." I have an MBA with a focus in Economics and follow way too many people in the business of economic forecasting but I have heard nothing close to this. I'm genuinely curious where you got this from? The fundamentals of the economy today are very different from what caused the Great Recession. Most of what we are seeing today are shocks related to disruptions in the supply chain after the global economy basically "flipped" open coming out of the worst of the pandemic and the related boom in consumer demand for goods that are in short supply (both from production and the issues related to delivering them such as worker and chip/part shortages). And that's without taking into account the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (which is primarily effecting gas, wheat and fertilizer). We're already seeing positive signs in easing of supply chain issues (look at the price of lumber and appliances with a cooling housing market).
I am in residential architecture and construction, I read 3 articles just yesterday on the coming recession and impact on housing. Permits are already substantially down largely because of building cost (all time high) and interest rate hikes. What I got from them is they dont think this is 2008 because as you said its not the same dynamics, but we are at a cost tipping point. I think we are at the peak of the market cost/price cycle and its going to slow substantially. Here where I am currently in DFW, in one of the articles they estimated the DFW market is overpriced by 48% of what it should be, and we were not in the top ten (18) overpriced markets.
We know also with every increase in interest rates it eliminates substantial numbers of buyers from the market, and those new rate increases are forecasted.
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  #12  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 6:08 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by bossabreezes View Post
Strong inflation, anxious consumers add up to more worries that recession has already arrived
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/infl...eady-here.html

US set for recession next year, economists predict
https://www.ft.com/content/53fcbbf1-...2-b0de432ed5a3

For the rats who deny reality.
This is forecasting, not reality. Also, forecasts about a recessions are notoriously unreliable. You're probably better off taking the media headlines and planning for exactly the opposite.
     
     
  #13  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 6:12 PM
bossabreezes bossabreezes is offline
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^^Ah, yes. You're right, inflation is a good thing, so is the housing market. It's great that most Americans can now not afford to buy a home. All good things. We're doing better than ever. Historically high inflation, prices, etc, are good for us all. We love being gaslight too, it's wonderful.

Tech companies laying tens of thousands of people off in the past month has nothing to do with the economy. Layoffs only happen when the economy is really, really good. It's so good right now that people don't even need to work because its just so perfect and has never been better.
     
     
  #14  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 6:14 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by bossabreezes View Post
^^Ah, yes. You're right, inflation is a good thing, so is the housing market. It's great that most Americans can now not afford to buy a home. All good things. We're doing better than ever. Historically high inflation, prices, etc, are good for us all. We love being gaslight too, it's wonderful.
Seriously, do you have a reading comprehension problem? I didn't use the word "good" or a synonym of it in that entire response.
     
     
  #15  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 6:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
What recession? We just sold a home way over asking, and are in contract on a home way over asking.
You think someone overpaying for your house and you overpaying for another one is indicative of the overall state of the economy? Really?
     
     
  #16  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 6:17 PM
bossabreezes bossabreezes is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Seriously, do you have a reading comprehension problem? I didn't use the word "good" or a synonym of it in that entire response.
You said to take the opposite of the idea portrayed in the headlines and and apply it. The forecasts are negative, the opposite of negative is positive. You are saying the economy will be positive, or in vulgar English, ''Good.'' You have a gaslighting issue, clearly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
You're probably better off taking the media headlines and planning for exactly the opposite.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
You think someone overpaying for your house and you overpaying for another one is indicative of the overall state of the economy? Really?
This forumer knows it is not a good thing, but decides to be intellectually dishonest to try and manipulate the narrative, probably for political reasons.
     
     
  #17  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 6:19 PM
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I can see a significant slowdown. On Wednesday, the Fed may hike interest rates by 75 basis points, so we may see 6% mortgage rates. At 6% there is definitely going to be a significant slowdown in my opinion.
     
     
  #18  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 6:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Gantz View Post
I can see a significant slowdown. On Wednesday, the Fed may hike interest rates by 75 basis points, so we may see 6% mortgage rates. At 6% there is definitely going to be a significant slowdown in my opinion.
I was extremely lucky in closing on my second house last December at 3.15%. I also got a car loan in January at 2.9%.
     
     
  #19  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 6:36 PM
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LOL. Trumpies and Putinistas desperately praying for a recession.

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  #20  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2022, 6:38 PM
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Take your political shit to the toilet, boys.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Jun 13, 2022 at 8:05 PM.
     
     
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