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Old Posted May 31, 2022, 10:28 PM
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Dreaded Commute to the City Is Keeping Offices Mostly Empty

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By Konrad Putzier
May 31, 2022 5:33 am ET

It isn’t the office that workers heading into the city despise. It’s the commute.

The Covid-19 pandemic led to a surge in remote work, emptying out office towers as more people worked from home. Cities with longer commutes have taken the biggest economic hit, while urban areas where people live closer to work have a higher return-to-office rate, according to The Wall Street Journal’s analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and building-access company Kastle Systems.

Recent polling of office workers supports the analysis. In a Gallup survey last summer, for example, 52% of those who want to work remotely listed avoiding commuting time as a top reason they don’t want to go to the office. Other common reasons, like well-being and flexibility, are also closely tied to the commute . . . .

Employee opposition to commuting means that landlords and cities aiming to refill their office floors may need to do more than renovate old buildings or put more police on street corners. It may require investing in housing, highways, public transportation and other infrastructure necessary to reduce commute times.

Luring commuters back is critical to central business districts that depend on these workers to support bars, restaurants and other small businesses that fuel these economies.

Eight of the 10 major cities with the biggest drop in office occupancy during the pandemic had an average one-way commute of more than 30 minutes in 2019. Meanwhile, six of the 10 cities with the smallest drop in office occupancy have average commutes of less than 30 minutes. The Journal’s analysis covers 24 of the country’s largest metropolitan areas.

The New York metropolitan area had the longest average commute time before the pandemic at 37.7 minutes, according to the Census Bureau. It also has one of the country’s lowest office-occupancy rates. Keycard swipes were down by 62% since early 2020 as of May 18, according to Kastle, compared with an average decline of 57% for the country’s biggest cities. Businesses catering to commuters have closed and retail vacancies in Midtown Manhattan have soared.

Minneapolis and Austin, where average commutes were well below 30 minutes in 2019, experienced a drop in occupancy of less than 40%. (See accompanying chart.)

Crime and unease over the use of public transit also factor into how workers feel about returning to the office. The type of industry that dominates a city can also play a big role. San Jose, for example, had a short average commute in 2019 but still saw a massive drop in office occupancy during the pandemic, in part because tech companies have been more willing to let employees work from home.

Commuting has been unpopular for ages, and economists say it hurts productivity. The average travel time to work in the U.S. increased from 25 to 27.6 minutes between 2006 and 2019, according to the Census Bureau . . . .

The anti-commute phenomenon is global, said IWG’s Mr. Dixon, whose company manages around 3,500 office locations in over 120 countries. Offices in smaller cities and in the suburbs are fuller than in commuter cities like Los Angeles and London, he said. Big cities with good infrastructure and plenty of affordable housing, like Copenhagen, are also seeing high occupancy because people are able to live closer to work, he added.

In the U.S., lack of funding and surging costs make it harder to invest in roads, rail and buses. A $1 trillion federal infrastructure funding plan signed into law in November helps, but that is likely just a start. Meanwhile red tape, rising labor and materials costs and high land prices hobble housing developers at a time when rents are surging.

Mr. [Richard] Florida at the University of Toronto expects cities to evolve away from pure business districts and toward more mixed-use neighborhoods. As fewer people commute to city centers, more offices and meeting rooms will open in residential neighborhoods and in suburbs, he said. Some companies such as Hudson’s Bay Co. and Daybase are already trying to meet that demand by turning suburban retail spaces into offices.

Empty offices in city centers may be replaced by apartment buildings. “The end result is more balanced communities,” Mr. Florida said. “But—and it is a big but—the adjustment will be painful.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dreaded...hp_featst_pos4

But the attraction of cities isn't just about avoidance of the commute. City centers are also often the location of the best restaurants, most interesting nightlife, high culture, museums and other attractions. I'm retired and don't commute but I chose to live downtown because of these things. It seems to me that the solution for cities trying to revitalize in the wake of covid is to build as much housing downtown and near downtown as they can so people can avoid long commutes AND live near the desirable things in cities at affordable prices (a much greater supply of housing should reduce prices).
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  #2  
Old Posted May 31, 2022, 11:06 PM
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I remember watching an urban planning video on YouTube saying that car commuting is one of the dumbest aspects of life in the US. It's dumb in the sense that you have to drive almost an hour to and from work 6 days a week, wasting productive time that could be spent at work. Having work and home be closer together or intertwined would be more efficient.

Of course, there are people who don't want to live in the CBD or any core city neighborhood ( I'm on of those people). Unless it's the Upper West Side, Greenwich Village, or the equivalents in other cities and if you like to have more space and less noise around, living in the outskirts is good. But much of the commuter volume that goes into a city could increasingly go I'm the form of more commuter rail.

As for the topic, yeah. Cities are more than just business centers that close down at night. If people aren't commuting to work as much as they used to, now would be a good time to invest in more residential and mixed use development in the core.
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Old Posted May 31, 2022, 11:17 PM
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This is why while a lot of Manhattan was hemorrhaging office tenants, 1 Vanderbilt was selling so well the developers wished they had more room to sell. Good transit access in a modern, well designed, efficient towers will sell these towers.
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  #4  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 1:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dreaded...hp_featst_pos4

But the attraction of cities isn't just about avoidance of the commute. City centers are also often the location of the best restaurants, most interesting nightlife, high culture, museums and other attractions. I'm retired and don't commute but I chose to live downtown because of these things. It seems to me that the solution for cities trying to revitalize in the wake of covid is to build as much housing downtown and near downtown as they can so people can avoid long commutes AND live near the desirable things in cities at affordable prices (a much greater supply of housing should reduce prices).
Maybe I missed this in the article above, but obviously the soaring price of gas must also be a big factor in resistance to long commutes. It is slowing down the return to offices from working from home, even as covid becomes less feared. Another factor for some is the high cost of child care. At some point, if companies want a return to offices, they may have to subsidize these added costs at least partially. In cities around the country, older office buildings are being converted to housing. Also, in downtown L.A. and S.D., and I suppose S.F. as well, residential high rise construction far outnumbers office building construction.

Last edited by CaliNative; Jun 1, 2022 at 2:06 AM.
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  #5  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 11:30 AM
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Commuting. Is. Stupid.

It’s an absolutely ridiculous waste of time and energy (personal and fossil fuel) that could be put toward much more productive uses.

For me this means never moving to the suburbs, but I can see why people in the suburbs don’t want to go to the office anymore.

Suburban office parks are of course even worse. You can only recruit employees from the local area, who then can’t move (and if they do move, need to change jobs as well) without creating a long commute by car that doesn’t match up with the transportation infrastructure.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 1:31 PM
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The price you pay to live in the less expensive cookie cutter suburbs is more in auto expenses and time.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 2:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 10023 View Post
Suburban office parks are of course even worse. You can only recruit employees from the local area, who then can’t move (and if they do move, need to change jobs as well) without creating a long commute by car that doesn’t match up with the transportation infrastructure.
What? If people who work in the 'burbs can head into the city for work than people in the city can head to the 'burbs for work, and people can commute from 'burb to 'burb. I see it everyday, as Philly has a ton of reverse commuters. And our metro is large and functions like other decentralized places and there's lots of people commuting from suburb to suburb.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 2:27 PM
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I thought the narrative was that Covid forced everyone to move to the suburbs and rural areas? Doesn't that imply willingness to waste hours in traffic? Now they don't want to commute?

Live in city centers to minimize commute. Preferably walking distance, or at least biking distance. Has worked for centuries.
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  #9  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 3:03 PM
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well thanks for schooling us on this with grandpa's wsj article.


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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 4:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliNative View Post
Maybe I missed this in the article above, but obviously the soaring price of gas must also be a big factor in resistance to long commutes.
i worry about how these sky high gas prices must be unbearable for many in the the blue collar/working classes who usually don't have a ton of viable WFH paths available to them.

we drove up to milwaukee this past holiday weekend and i spent $75 filling up our little mazda cx-5!!! holy crap, i've never seen a fill-up that high ever in my life.

what are people who have to drive long distance everyday going to do, especially considering that a lot of them are on lower rungs of the socioeconomic ladder?
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 4:38 PM
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Originally Posted by UrbanImpact View Post
The price you pay to live in the less expensive cookie cutter suburbs is more in auto expenses and time.
People out here in the suburbs are also moving to WFH. Here in Houston, there's more stodgy companies resistant to change so more professional types back in the office but WFH is in the cards for most of us here down the road. I have to relocate to the Bay Area pretty soon but as soon as they give us the all clear for WFH, I am moving back here.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 5:09 PM
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Personally, I couldn't wait to return to the office (being 26, some people in my circle see this as weird). When I accepted a role with my current employer, being in the office was a HUGE plus. I love my 20 minute walk through the beautiful hills and lush greenery of Northwest Philly to my Regional Rail station, my relaxing 20 minute ride into Center City, and the fact that my building is a less than 5 minute walk away from Jefferson Station. I love interacting with my coworkers, taking walks around Center City during lunch, the myriad of restaurants I have to choose from, and the views from my floor.

I agree with the premise of this article, as I've long felt that less people would be against returning to the office if they had shorter and more comfortable commutes. I would probably feel a LOT different if I had to take the Schuylkill somewhere out in suburban hell, but being able to take the Regional Rail makes all the difference in the world.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 5:30 PM
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BBC News

Elon Musk declares end to remote working at Tesla
People who are unwilling to abide by the new rules can "pretend to work somewhere else"
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  #14  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 5:34 PM
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Originally Posted by mrnyc View Post
well thanks for schooling us on this with grandpa's wsj article.
:
You can pull the fallacy of strawmaning the poster but in my anecdotal experience the middle-low end employees who have commutes are really pushing to extend their WFH (which was reduced last year to 2 or 3 days a week depending on seniority)

Especially once gas practically doubled here since February. We are letting a few of our good hourly's who've expressed money concerns and long commutes stay full time home for now. Some of our staff with families can have horrifyingly long commutes.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 5:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
BBC News

Elon Musk declares end to remote working at Tesla
People who are unwilling to abide by the new rules can "pretend to work somewhere else"
Right now, he can get away with this since a lot of bigger Bay Area tech companies are digging their feet in and having employees return to the office. And outside the manufacturing aspect of Tesla, it otherwise does act like a tech company.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 5:37 PM
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Right now, he can get away with this since a lot of bigger Bay Area tech companies are digging their feet in and having employees return to the office. And outside the manufacturing aspect of Tesla, it otherwise does act like a tech company.
The way I see, remote work triggered lmental disorders in many people, panic attacks, anxiety, and that's why this big fuss when a given company that was remote call them back.

In my opinion, it's healthy to interact with people and we can learn a lot from your coworkers, keep in sync with the company. Said that, I also believe quality on workplace is important. But then when we have people panicking with the prospect of a comeback, something is off, be on the remote, be on the office.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 5:40 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by jd3189 View Post
I remember watching an urban planning video on YouTube saying that car commuting is one of the dumbest aspects of life in the US. It's dumb in the sense that you have to drive almost an hour to and from work 6 days a week, wasting productive time that could be spent at work. Having work and home be closer together or intertwined would be more efficient.

Of course, there are people who don't want to live in the CBD or any core city neighborhood ( I'm on of those people). Unless it's the Upper West Side, Greenwich Village, or the equivalents in other cities and if you like to have more space and less noise around, living in the outskirts is good. But much of the commuter volume that goes into a city could increasingly go I'm the form of more commuter rail.

As for the topic, yeah. Cities are more than just business centers that close down at night. If people aren't commuting to work as much as they used to, now would be a good time to invest in more residential and mixed use development in the core.
People value having larger cheaper homes more than their time. Thats why the nicest areas are far out exurbs and close in older rich neighborhoods where you pay a premium.

The lower classes and middle class are forced due to circumstance to live in tiny urban apartments or the suburban sprawl so they can have some semblance of a house for their families.


You see suburbs in Europe too but Europe has bene fully urbanized for centuries and most of the USA and Canada was wilderness until the 1930's

Arguably most of Canada is still wilderness (its just useless tundra people cant live in)

If Europe had been mostly empty at the time cars were invented Europe would also have sprawl. Just like Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Mexico etc all do. Any decently wealthy country that developed in modern times.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 5:43 PM
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Originally Posted by 10023 View Post

Suburban office parks are of course even worse. You can only recruit employees from the local area, who then can’t move (and if they do move, need to change jobs as well) without creating a long commute by car that doesn’t match up with the transportation infrastructure.
I know many people who have lived in Urban centers and commuted out to suburban office parks, Myself being one of them.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 5:45 PM
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The way I see, remote work triggered lmental disorders in many people, panic attacks, anxiety, and that's why this big fuss when a given company that was remote call them back.
I think there are just a good chunk of people who liked the flexibility, time savings and car savings of working from home that *Ghasp* dont like living in or being in a dense urban area or major metro area.

Its not most people but a solid minority of people only lived in cities for the high paying jobs, if they can get a decently paying job and live in smaller towns and cities or far out exurbia or even in a fairly rural setting there are literally millions of people who would prefer that.

I personally knew people a decade ago (core millennials they ultimate urbanists) he had come from small towns and by the time college was over (or even before it was over) moved back home because they liked their small home town more than an new city. Almost all of them still live in their hometowns.

I know it sounds insane to people who are naturally urbanists but there are many millions of regulars people that like their podunk towns. They DONT WANT to live in your city, they think city dwellers are just as crazy as city dwellers think rural folk are crazy.
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Old Posted Jun 1, 2022, 6:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
The way I see, remote work triggered lmental disorders in many people, panic attacks, anxiety, and that's why this big fuss when a given company that was remote call them back.

In my opinion, it's healthy to interact with people and we can learn a lot from your coworkers, keep in sync with the company. Said that, I also believe quality on workplace is important. But then when we have people panicking with the prospect of a comeback, something is off, be on the remote, be on the office.
Covid has showed us the system performed just fine with everyone at home and most had a taste of the benefits and convenience of WFH and going back in the office won't be the same as before. Despite the positives of working side-by-side with co-workers.
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