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  #581  
Old Posted Jun 9, 2022, 1:02 PM
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Ukraine

It's been over 100 days of war and refugee estimates are becoming more accurate, computing even people that moved further into Europe and people who returned back to Ukraine. Overall, 4,712,784 Ukrainian individuals (UN Refugee Agency) are living outside their country as refugees and distributed as such:

Poland ----------- 1,142,964
Russia ------------ 1,041,095
Germany ---------- 780,000
Czech Rep. -------- 361,500
Italy ---------------- 125,907
Spain --------------- 109,541
Moldova ------------ 87,718
Turkey --------------- 85,000
Romania ------------ 84,470
Slovakia ------------- 78,756
Bulgaria ------------- 78,714
Austria -------------- 68,747
Netherlands -------- 60,020
Lithuania ------------ 53,913
Switzerland --------- 50,103
Belgium -------------- 45,227
France ---------------- 43,300
Portugal ------------- 39,884
Estonia --------------- 39,802
Sweden -------------- 39,592
United Kingdom ---- 37,400
Ireland ---------------- 32,421
Denmark ------------- 29,191
Finland --------------- 26,196
Latvia ----------------- 23,382
Hungary ------------- 23,347

- Ukraine (sans Crimea) population is probably around 35 million now (down from 50 million in the early 1990's);

- Germany once again will see a population boost due a refugee crisis. The way things are evolving they might outpace both Poland and Russia by the end of the year;

- Czech Rep. hosting an impressive number of people;

- There was an established Ukrainian community in Spain and that's probably pushing the numbers up;

- France and Britain with a lowish number.
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  #582  
Old Posted Jul 7, 2022, 3:19 PM
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UK Census 2021 started to release some figures. First, for England:

ENGLAND
1991: 47,055,205
2001: 49,138,831 --- 4.43%
2011: 53,012,456 --- 7.88%
2021: 56,489,800 --- 6.54%

LONDON
1991: 6,679,332
2001: 7,172,091 ---- 7.38%
2011: 8,173,941 --- 13.97%
2021: 8,799,800 ---- 7.66%

London's number converging with England's which might be a good thing. I'll do some versions of their metro area as well.

And as people like this comparison, it was not this time London overtook New York population wise:

1990: 7,322,564
2000: 8,008,278
2010: 8,175,133
2020: 8,804,190
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  #583  
Old Posted Jul 7, 2022, 3:26 PM
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Here a lazy/very wide definition of London metro area (Greater London, East of England, South East England):

London Metro Area

1991: 19,233,246

2001: 20,560,876 ---- 6.90%

2011: 22,655,656 --- 10.19%

2021: 24,412,400 ---- 7.75%
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  #584  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2022, 10:17 PM
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As we already several census and estimates available already, here of countries and their last decade growth:

CHINA ------------ 1,411,778,724 - 1,339,724,852 ---- +5.4%

UNITED STATES ------ 331,449,281 --- 308,745,538 ---- +7.4%

INDONESIA ---------- 270,203,917 --- 237,641,326 --- +13.7%

JAPAN -------------- 126,146,099 --- 128,057,352 ---- -1.5%

MEXICO ------------- 126,014,024 --- 112,336,538 --- +12.2%

PHILIPPINES -------- 109,035,343 ---- 92,337,852 --- +18.1%

VIETNAM ------------- 96,208,984 ---- 85,846,997 --- +12.1%

TURKEY -------------- 84,680,273 ---- 74,525,696 --- +13.6%

GERMANY ------------- 83,237,124 ---- 80,219,695 ---- +3.8%

ITALY --------------- 59,257,566 ---- 59,433,744 ---- -0.3%

ENGLAND ------------- 56,489,800 ---- 53,012,456 ---- +6.6%

SOUTH KOREA --------- 51,829,136 ---- 48,580,293 ---- +6.7%

CANADA -------------- 36,991,981 ---- 33,476,688 --- +10.5%

MALAYSIA ------------ 32,447,385 ---- 28,334,135 --- +14.5%

AUSTRALIA ----------- 25,422,788 ---- 21,507,719 --- +18.2%

NETHERLANDS --------- 17,474,693 ---- 16,655,799 ---- +4.9%

BELGIUM ------------- 11,492,641 ---- 10,839,905 ---- +6.0%

SWEDEN -------------- 10,379,295 ----- 9,415,570 --- +10.2%

PORTUGAL ------------ 10,347,892 ---- 10,562,178 ---- -2.0%

ISRAEL --------------- 9,140,500 ----- 7,412,200 --- +23.3%

AUSTRIA -------------- 8,932,664 ----- 8,401,940 ---- +6.3%

SWITZERLAND ---------- 8,670,300 ----- 7,870,134 --- +10.2%

HONG KONG ------------ 7,413,070 ----- 7,071,576 ---- +4.8%

DENMARK -------------- 5,840,045 ----- 5,560,628 ---- +5.0%

SINGAPORE ------------ 5,685,807 ----- 5,076,700 --- +12.0%

FINLAND -------------- 5,533,793 ----- 5,375,276 ---- +2.9%

IRELAND -------------- 5,123,536 ----- 4,588,252 --- +11.7%



--- Japan, Italy and Portugal had a negative decade;

--- China and South Korea will have a negative 2020's. Their transition from positive to negative has been very fast;

--- Germany that was the first country to post negative natural growth back in 1974 manages to keep growing due massive number of immigrants. The Ukrainian crisis will provide another boost. I believe they'll have another growing decade;

--- Philippines and Turkey still very high, despite the already high density and challenging geography;

--- Canada and Australia diverging from the US, specially the latter. Posting very strong growth;

--- England, Netherlands and Belgium, all very dense countries with relatively strong growth;

--- Sweden overtaking Portugal.
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  #585  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2022, 11:15 PM
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England? Shouldn't you do UK (as in the actual country)? It'll be about 69 million for mid 2022
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  #586  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2022, 11:26 PM
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Originally Posted by muppet View Post
England? Shouldn't you do UK (as in the actual country)? It'll be about 69 million for mid 2022
That's the 2021 Census and only England released their numbers. Scotland even delayed because Covid. It will take a while to figure out the UK.
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  #587  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2022, 7:24 AM
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aha, those pesky Scots
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  #588  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2022, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by muppet View Post
aha, those pesky Scots
Wales is out though. Northern Ireland also held it in 2021, but is yet to be released:

----------------------------- 2021 --------- 2011
ENGLAND & WALES --- 59,597,300 ---- 56,075,912 ---- +6.3%
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  #589  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2022, 1:53 PM
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UN's World Population Prospects 2022 was released today. Highlights:


- The World will reach 8 billion people this November. In 2030, there will be 8.5 billion people, in 2050 9.7 billion and in 2100 10.4 billion; The population peak will be reached in the 2080's;

- India will overtake China as the world's most populated country next year. China will also start declining in 2023;

- World's life expectancy reached 72.8 y/o in 2019;

- World's TFR is at 2.3 children/woman (2021);

- In 2020, world's population growth fell below 1%/year for the first time since 1950;

- The share of the global population aged 65 y/o or above is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% per cent in 2050;

- Population of Eastern & South Eastern Asia and Europe & Northern America will peak around the late 2020's. Sub-Saharan Africa, on the other hand, will go from 1.1 billion (2022) to 2.1 billion (2050).
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  #590  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2022, 4:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
UN's World Population Prospects 2022 was released today. Highlights:


- The World will reach 8 billion people this November. In 2030, there will be 8.5 billion people, in 2050 9.7 billion and in 2100 10.4 billion; The population peak will be reached in the 2080's;

- India will overtake China as the world's most populated country next year. China will also start declining in 2023;

- World's life expectancy reached 72.8 y/o in 2019;

- World's TFR is at 2.3 children/woman (2021);

- In 2020, world's population growth fell below 1%/year for the first time since 1950;

- The share of the global population aged 65 y/o or above is projected to rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% per cent in 2050;

- Population of Eastern & South Eastern Asia and Europe & Northern America will peak around the late 2020's. Sub-Saharan Africa, on the other hand, will go from 1.1 billion (2022) to 2.1 billion (2050).
Eastern Europe has been declining for a decade now, what do they mean peak in the late 2020's and I highly doubt North America will peak in the late 2020's
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  #591  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2022, 4:45 PM
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Eastern Europe has been declining for a decade now, what do they mean peak in the late 2020's
It's the sum of the whole Europe, the US and Canada that will decline by the late 2020's.
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  #592  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2022, 10:54 PM
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Quote:
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Eastern Europe has been declining for a decade now, what do they mean peak in the late 2020's and I highly doubt North America will peak in the late 2020's
North America increasingly relies on immigration, which itself is going down -and the migrants themselves revert to low birthrates within a generation. For example the US birth rate is on par with China's per woman, pandemic year it briefly fell below even. At 1.63 children per woman one needs at least 2.1 to be above replacement level




All in all it's a good thing - less kids, more planet. Every part of the world is seeing dramatic reductions in children - even the worst offendors who are still averaging 4 kids per woman... well that was 8 a generation before. The problem is it will take another lifetime for the population growth to actually reflect into falling numbers as even these babies will beget one or two more babies, even if it is very low.

For example in a lifespan of 80 years where 4 billion women will be having one more child each and their kids in turn - catastrophically below replacement level - still equates to doubling the population for 60 years more. This is why India, barely above replacement now, and about to plummet further in birthrates, will still see in another 400 million in population in 40 years. Same with China, although below replacement (plus haemmorhaging millions more in migration) since 1992, still added 300 million in numbers. People live longer.

Last edited by muppet; Jul 12, 2022 at 7:15 AM.
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  #593  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2022, 1:37 AM
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North America increasingly relies on immigration, which itself is going down -and the migrants themselves revert to low birthrates within a generation. For example the US birth rate is on par with China's per woman, pandemic year it briefly fell below even. At 1.63 children per woman one needs at least 2.1 to be above replacement level




All in all it's a good thing - less kids, more planet. Every part of the world is seeing dramatic reductions in children - even the worst offendors who are still averaging 4 kids per woman... well that was 8 a generation before. The problem is it will take another lifetime for the population growth to actually reflect into falling numbers as even these babies will beget one or two more babies, even if it is very low.

For example in a lifespan of 80 years where 4 billion women will be having one more child each - catastrophically below replacement level - still equates to doubling the population for 60 years more. This is why India, barely above replacement now, and about to plummet further in birthrates, will still see in another 400 million in population in 40 years. Same with China, although below replacement (plus haemmorhaging millions more in migration) since 1992, still added 300 million in numbers. People live longer.
I am a well aware of the population dynamics of North America and there is no way both Canada and the US's population will be declining by 2030.
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  #594  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2022, 6:26 AM
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No I don't think NA will decline by then, but birthrates / natural growth yes. Immigration will keep NA going for a good 40 years more, until which the death rate will be too large to replace.
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  #595  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2022, 6:31 AM
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Africa will become the centre of working populations and consumers - by far (Asia will be marginally older, like much of the rest of the world)

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  #596  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2022, 11:39 AM
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^^^
I found those estimates too optimist for Latin America & Caribbean for 2050:

2022: 658 mi

2030: 695 mi

2050: 749 mi

I guess they'll too optimistic for Brazil and South America as a whole. They gave 231 million for Brazil in 2050. I'd say 223 million the most, with the peak at 225 million in 2040. For Mexico, they gave 144 million in 2050. I'd bet a little more for them.


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I am a well aware of the population dynamics of North America and there is no way both Canada and the US's population will be declining by 2030.
Nite, but they not be declining by 2030. It's the whole Europe (Russia included) + the US + Canada that will be declining.

Europe as a whole will certainly do and the US will arrive to 2030 close of being flat. Only Canada will bump, but below double-digit/decade.
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  #597  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2022, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
LONDON
1991: 6,679,332
2001: 7,172,091 ---- 7.38%
2011: 8,173,941 --- 13.97%
2021: 8,799,800 ---- 7.66%

London's number converging with England's which might be a good thing. I'll do some versions of their metro area as well.

And as people like this comparison, it was not this time London overtook New York population wise:

1990: 7,322,564
2000: 8,008,278
2010: 8,175,133
2020: 8,804,190
There have been a few complaints that the 2021 census ought to have been delayed (as was the case in Scotland and other countries) because it coincided with a full lockdown. Not only was there a temporary exodus outside of the majority of London boroughs, but census response rates were poor. For example, the population estimate for the London Borough of Camden in 2020 was 280,000, in the 2021 census it came in at 210,000, down a staggering 70,000.


Source: The Economist: https://www.economist.com/britain/20...-than-expected

It isn’t just population figures that are questionable, but travel to work data (most people were ‘commuting’ from their bedroom to their study/dining table), yet rail travel is now at 95% of pre-pandemic numbers. In summary, the 2021 census figures will forever distort historic and future comparisons which is a miserable outcome.
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  #598  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2022, 12:44 PM
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There have been a few complaints that the 2021 census ought to have been delayed (as was the case in Scotland and other countries) because it coincided with a full lockdown. Not only was there a temporary exodus outside of the majority of London boroughs, but census response rates were poor. For example, the population estimate for the London Borough of Camden in 2020 was 280,000, in the 2021 census it came in at 210,000, down a staggering 70,000.

(...)

It isn’t just population figures that are questionable, but travel to work data (most people were ‘commuting’ from their bedroom to their study/dining table), yet rail travel is now at 95% of pre-pandemic numbers. In summary, the 2021 census figures will forever distort historic and future comparisons which is a miserable outcome.
I got angry when Brazilian Statistical Office from 2020 to 2021 and then again to 2022, breaking this way the decennial logic.

However, it probably was the best: young people who fled from bigger cities to their parents' home are all back. Deaths due Covid (670k in Brazil, 0.3% of population) will be also computed on figures.
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  #599  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2022, 9:38 PM
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Yep, I think it'll be heavily skewed by the fact the census was taken at the height of the second lockdown in London, when literally hundreds of thousands had left or put off moving into the city, from students no longer needing a campus, to all services industries (by far the largest sector) jettisoning their staff en masse, to people ditching rents and living it out in their hometown parents for the duration, to those wfh. Problem is this skewing will effect EVERYTHING for the next decade - funding, taxes, urban planning, even product design, till the next census.

The final tally was 8.8million - taking into account the numbers who didnt fill it in the Census estimates the true population at 9 million. Of course even higher outside lockdown (their previous estimates before pandemic had been 9.3 million).

I imagine this'll be a similar story around the world.
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  #600  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2022, 11:00 PM
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Yep, I think it'll be heavily skewed by the fact the census was taken at the height of the second lockdown in London, when literally hundreds of thousands had left or put off moving into the city, from students no longer needing a campus, to all services industries (by far the largest sector) jettisoning their staff en masse, to people ditching rents and living it out in their hometown parents for the duration, to those wfh. Problem is this skewing will effect EVERYTHING for the next decade - funding, taxes, urban planning, even product design, till the next census.

The final tally was 8.8million - taking into account the numbers who didnt fill it in the Census estimates the true population at 9 million. Of course even higher outside lockdown (their previous estimates before pandemic had been 9.3 million).

I imagine this'll be a similar story around the world.
Without Covid, we would have London adding another 1 million people then. It certainly hasn't slowed down.
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