Worldwide Demographics

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mousquet

As probably everybody, I hear they'd rather stay in countries neighboring Ukraine, especially Poland because many of them are determined to get back to their country once the war is over.
Most refugees are women and kids who left their hubbies or dads who're still in Ukraine to fight. Brave people, but I'm hardly surprised. That's the reputation they're known by anyway.

Otherwise, don't expect too many of them in Northern Europe. A lot of Ukrainians would have some connections to Mediterranean Europe like Italy or Portugal, so more of them would be moving to these countries.
The French government is expecting something like 100k in our country at most. They won't rush to France because they want to work for a decent living and heard that it was hard for immigrants to find a job out here, which is not false, although it depends on their degrees / level of education.

I doubt there will be a comeback. Since 2014, over 1 million Ukrainians moved to Russia, another 1 million to Europe, many to Poland, a country that traditionally exports people. There are already 6 million Ukrainians living outside Ukraine, and that's before Feb 24th.

The country is already very poor, neighbouring the much wealthier Western Europe, with an already well established diaspora. So it's quite easy for those refugees to stay away. We don't know how and when this was will be over, so perspectives are horrible. The US is estimating their GDP will shrink 35% in 2022 from an already very low base.

We'll probably see several Detroit-like scenes with massive depopulation with many buildings left to rot.

--------------------------------------------------

Let's see how things developed. The number of refugees are decreasing for the past days, but the war is turning more violent, so it's hard to say how this refugee curve will behave. The UN was estimating up to 4 million Ukrainians would have left the country by the beginning of the crisis. Now, it seems this number will be reached before the first month of war. A tragedy. At least they're being welcomed in the host countries.

[mousquet]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I doubt there will be a comeback.

I don't really know because a lot of these Ukrainians people are supposed to be stubborn. Like, when they decided to do something, they'll do it to death.

They belong to some sort of Orthodox Christian Church, which still would be significant to them. Pretty much like the Russians by the way.
This means that they're not used to the same culture or approach as we are in our traditionally Catholic or Protestant countries.

This reminds me of this terrifying figure : during the occupation of their country for WWII between 1941 and 1944, one person out of seven would've died in Greece. They lost 14% of their population in just 4 years.

The Greeks are Orthodox Christians. So are the Ukrainians. You see? They're not known to give up a fight. That's like something in their culture out there.

That being said, some will settled abroad. For instance, if some Ukrainian mathematician, engineer, biologist or whatever manages to prove themselves useful and essential here in Paris, we'll sure try to hold them back here by some interesting salary. But I guess a lot of them will go back to their country anyway. That's the way a lot of their culture is supposed to be.

[Yuri]

As Chinese released more data on their 2020 Census, I decided to make this compilation with metro areas above 5 million. I also brought the US "Big 12" for comparison:

-------------------------- 2020 --------- 2010 --------- 2000 ---------- Area --------- Growth %

CHINA -------------- 1,411,778,724 - 1,339,724,852 - 1,242,612,226 - 9,572,900 km² ---- 5.4% ---- 7.8%
UNITED STATES -------- 331,449,281 --- 308,745,538 --- 281,421,906 - 9,149,429 km² ---- 7.3% ---- 9.7%

---------------- 2020 -------- 2010 -------- 2000 ----------- Area -------- Growth %

GUANGZHOU ---- 28,175,468 --- 19,899,342 --- 15,279,731 ---- 11,282 km² --- 41.6% --- 30.2%

SHENZHEN ----- 27,961,023 --- 18,578,588 --- 13,454,608 ----- 4,457 km² --- 50.5% --- 38.1%

SHANGHAI ----- 27,794,504 --- 25,375,910 --- 17,672,871 ----- 8,094 km² ---- 9.5% --- 43.6%

NEW YORK ----- 22,692,839 --- 21,358,372 --- 20,675,403 ---- 21,770 km² ---- 6.2% ---- 3.3%

BEIJING ------ 20,121,388 --- 18,038,417 --- 12,181,029 ----- 9,119 km² --- 11.5% --- 48.1%

CHENGDU ------ 19,563,260 --- 13,764,325 --- 11,150,559 ----- 8,816 km² --- 42.1% --- 23.4%

LOS ANGELES -- 18,644,680 --- 17,877,006 --- 16,373,645 ---- 87,982 km² ---- 4.3% ---- 9.2%

XI'AN -------- 13,163,333 ---- 9,086,833 ---- 7,662,721 ----- 6,397 km² --- 44.9% --- 18.6%

CHONGQING ---- 12,388,802 ---- 9,290,834 ---- 8,275,784 ---- 10,024 km² --- 33.3% --- 12.3%

WUHAN -------- 12,326,518 ---- 9,785,388 ---- 8,312,700 ----- 8,575 km² --- 26.0% --- 17.7%

TIANJIN ------ 11,952,812 --- 10,938,604 ---- 8,041,774 ----- 7,700 km² ---- 9.3% --- 36.0%

HANGZHOU ----- 11,164,344 ---- 7,932,780 ---- 6,023,313 ---- 10,089 km² --- 40.7% --- 31.7%

SHANTOU ------ 11,115,182 --- 11,137,617 ---- 9,747,015 ----- 6,313 km² --- -0.2% --- 14.3%

ZHENGZHOU ---- 10,260,667 ---- 6,353,285 ---- 4,491,458 ----- 4,310 km² --- 61.5% --- 41.5%

CHANGSHA ----- 10,047,914 ---- 7,040,952 ---- 6,138,719 ---- 11,819 km² --- 42.7% --- 14.7%

SUZHOU -------- 9,824,653 ---- 8,103,176 ---- 5,527,102 ----- 7,349 km² --- 21.2% --- 46.6%

CHICAGO ------- 9,618,502 ---- 9,461,105 ---- 9,098,314 ---- 18,634 km² ---- 1.7% ---- 4.0%

NANJING ------- 9,314,685 ---- 8,003,744 ---- 6,126,165 ----- 6,590 km² --- 16.4% --- 30.6%

WENZHOU ------- 9,018,762 ---- 8,676,582 ---- 7,012,963 ----- 8,481 km² ---- 3.9% --- 23.7%

SHENYANG ------ 8,812,493 ---- 7,747,103 ---- 6,840,797 ----- 5,038 km² --- 13.8% --- 13.2%

QINGDAO ------- 8,160,271 ---- 6,607,438 ---- 5,443,423 ----- 6,482 km² --- 23.5% --- 21.4%

NINGBO -------- 8,140,660 ---- 6,456,336 ---- 4,960,940 ----- 6,214 km² --- 26.1% --- 30.1%

SAN FRANCISCO - 8,036,501 ---- 7,413,121 ---- 7,039,362 ---- 19,943 km² ---- 8.4% ---- 5.3%

HEFEI --------- 7,754,481 ---- 5,702,466 ---- 4,467,384 ----- 7,050 km² --- 36.0% --- 27.6%

DALLAS -------- 7,637,387 ---- 6,366,542 ---- 5,156,217 ---- 22,469 km² --- 20.0% --- 23.5%

FUZHOU -------- 7,498,657 ---- 6,420,594 ---- 5,540,722 ----- 7,328 km² --- 16.8% --- 15.9%

WUXI ---------- 7,462,135 ---- 6,374,399 ---- 5,086,586 ----- 4,618 km² --- 17.1% --- 25.3%

XIAMEN -------- 7,284,148 ---- 5,321,567 ---- 3,627,560 ----- 4,406 km² --- 36.9% --- 46.7%

HOUSTON ------- 7,122,240 ---- 5,920,416 ---- 4,693,161 ---- 21,416 km² --- 20.3% --- 26.1%

QUANZHOU ------ 7,024,007 ---- 6,421,014 ---- 5,452,988 ----- 4,543 km² ---- 9.4% --- 17.8%

HARBIN -------- 6,976,136 ---- 6,704,573 ---- 5,501,784 ---- 10,183 km² ---- 4.1% --- 21.9%

KUNMING ------- 6,584,516 ---- 4,495,649 ---- 3,833,953 ----- 6,739 km² --- 46.5% --- 17.3%

PHILADELPHIA -- 6,245,051 ---- 5,965,353 ---- 5,687,147 ---- 11,922 km² ---- 4.7% ---- 4.9%

SHIJIAZHUANG -- 6,230,709 ---- 4,770,400 ---- 3,995,286 ----- 2,665 km² --- 30.6% --- 19.4%

MIAMI --------- 6,138,333 ---- 5,564,635 ---- 5,007,564 ---- 13,123 km² --- 10.3% --- 11.1%

WASHINGTON ---- 6,105,431 ---- 5,388,326 ---- 4,635,194 ---- 12,403 km² --- 13.3% --- 15.8%

BOSTON -------- 6,095,791 ---- 5,628,532 ---- 5,410,915 ---- 14,621 km² ---- 8.3% ---- 4.0%

ATLANTA ------- 6,089,815 ---- 5,286,728 ---- 4,263,438 ---- 22,496 km² --- 15.2% --- 24.0%

JINAN --------- 6,020,192 ---- 4,853,937 ---- 4,025,392 ----- 4,404 km² --- 24.0% --- 20.6%

TAIYUAN ------- 5,906,614 ---- 4,526,259 ---- 3,574,635 ----- 5,424 km² --- 30.5% --- 26.6%

CHANGCHUN ----- 5,809,671 ---- 4,804,743 ---- 4,184,913 ----- 7,617 km² --- 20.9% --- 14.8%

DALIAN -------- 5,736,383 ---- 4,845,700 ---- 4,041,382 ----- 5,765 km² --- 18.4% --- 19.9%

NANNING ------- 5,675,789 ---- 3,825,203 ---- 3,018,004 ----- 8,787 km² --- 48.4% --- 26.7%

GUIYANG ------- 5,423,312 ---- 3,751,466 ---- 3,107,614 ----- 4,981 km² --- 44.6% --- 20.7%

JIAXING ------- 5,400,868 ---- 4,501,657 ---- 3,582,996 ----- 4,065 km² --- 20.0% --- 25.6%

NANCHANG ------ 5,382,162 ---- 4,171,926 ---- 3,424,107 ----- 4,588 km² --- 29.0% --- 21.8%

TAIZHOU ------- 5,336,820 ---- 4,914,463 ---- 4,063,455 ----- 5,179 km² ---- 8.6% --- 20.9%

DETROIT ------- 5,325,319 ---- 5,218,852 ---- 5,357,538 ---- 14,983 km² ---- 2.0% --- -2.6%

LUOYANG ------- 5,296,125 ---- 4,801,694 ---- 4,490,701 ----- 6,043 km² --- 10.3% ---- 6.9%

CHANGZHOU ----- 5,278,121 ---- 4,592,431 ---- 3,776,270 ----- 4,402 km² --- 14.9% --- 21.6%

And some Chinese metro areas are forming massive clusters:

-------------------------- 2020 --------- 2010 --------- 2000 ---------- Area --------- Growth %

GUANGZHOU-SHENZHEN ---- 75,008,570 ---- 52,828,947 ---- 39,473,137 ---- 38,571 km² --- 42.0% --- 33.8%
SHANGHAI -------------- 59,526,815 ---- 52,129,284 ---- 38,731,661 ---- 31,662 km² --- 14.2% --- 34.6%
BEIJING-TIANJIN ------- 41,223,191 ---- 36,909,900 ---- 27,251,369 ---- 34,434 km² --- 11.7% --- 35.4%

[iheartthed]

I guess I'm a little surprised to see a large major metro in China with negative growth.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I guess I'm a little surprised to see a large major metro in China with negative growth.

You mean Shantou? I guess it’s due the massive growth of the neighboring Guangzhou-Shenzhen. Chinese have their domestic passports, and I guess after a while, they’re counted on the new city.

All provinces of China except for two or three have already a very low growth and the Northeast, their Rust Belt, is already shrinking.

The thing is, their rural population is massive. Some rural regions are denser than Atlanta urban area. And that provides a big pool where the regional metropolises feed in. They will certainly have robust growth for a while.

[muppet]

Originally Posted by mousquet

I don't really know because a lot of these Ukrainians people are supposed to be stubborn. Like, when they decided to do something, they'll do it to death.

They belong to some sort of Orthodox Christian Church, which still would be significant to them. Pretty much like the Russians by the way.
This means that they're not used to the same culture or approach as we are in our traditionally Catholic or Protestant countries.

This reminds me of this terrifying figure : during the occupation of their country for WWII between 1941 and 1944, one person out of seven would've died in Greece. They lost 14% of their population in just 4 years.

The Greeks are Orthodox Christians. So are the Ukrainians. You see? They're not known to give up a fight. That's like something in their culture out there.

That being said, some will settled abroad. For instance, if some Ukrainian mathematician, engineer, biologist or whatever manages to prove themselves useful and essential here in Paris, we'll sure try to hold them back here by some interesting salary. But I guess a lot of them will go back to their country anyway. That's the way a lot of their culture is supposed to be.

Many of the Greeks died in famines, instigated by the economic collapse of war and the fact the Nazis couldn't be bothered to feed their newly conquered, rather they looted the country for supplies. The first famine hit the cities, the second famine hit the countryside as mass executions haunted the rural folk, in reprisal for guerilla resistance - many fled the fields which lay fallow.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Greece)

[mousquet]

Originally Posted by muppet

Many of the Greeks died in famines, instigated by the economic collapse of war and the fact the Nazis couldn't be bothered to feed their newly conquered, rather they looted the country for supplies. The first famine hit the cities, the second famine hit the countryside as mass executions haunted the rural folk, in reprisal for guerilla resistance - many fled the fields which lay fallow.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Greece)

Never heard of any famine in Greece by that time.
I simply didn't know about it.
It's very true that casualties caused to the Greek Resistance don't fit the mad loss of their population.

Figures are comparable to (and may actually exceed) what psycho Stalin did on purpose to the Ukrainians in 1932/33, so yes, there must be some kind of broader disaster involved.
Stalin planned a whole organized famine that killed 4 to 5 million Ukrainians from 1931 to 1933, by stealing all the food they would produce and letting them starve to death.
That was all carefully planned by the soviet regime. It is well known by the name of Holodomor. People in Ukraine had to rely on cannibalism to survive to some extent. I know, I saw it in horrific documentaries that I can't forget. Some moms would tell their kids - when I'm dead, you eat my body to survive.
Or some people would kill the cadet (youngest daughter or son) of their family to eat them.
That is communism. When everybody is impoverished to satisfy them sadistic communists and there's nothing left, you eat people. You're down to eat your own relatives. Wonderful, huh?

Notice that the best at erasing a whole percentage of a population remains Pol Pot. That one killed roughly a quarter of the Cambodian population in just 4 years, between 1975 and 79.
Pol Pot was a Cambodian communist partly trained and brainwashed by the socialists here in France (Cambodia is a former French colony).

You see, that's typically the reason why I don't trust the hardcore socialists, marxists, communists of whatever they call themselves.
I've even been on a mission to humiliate them online, so poor people don't buy their gross propaganda.

[Yuri]

Even though I abhor totalitarian communist regimes, they’re not exclusive when it comes to big famines. The Irish one in the 1840’s got so bad precisely because British government was too attached to the laissez-faire dogma and only acted when was too late.

And we have hundreds of other examples caused by mismanagements of all sorts of regimes.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Even though I abhor totalitarian communist regimes, they’re not exclusive when it comes to big famines. The Irish one in the 1840’s got so bad precisely because British government was too attached to the laissez-faire dogma and only acted when was too late.

And we have hundreds of other examples caused by mismanagements of all sorts of regimes.

Mismanagements/ incompetence leading to famine is still not the same as an intentional act; i.e., the Holodomor, Khmer Rouge, etc. China's Great Leap Forward was mainly due to gross mismanagement and likely not intentional. Just another example why collectivism and central planning were a failed experiment.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by JManc

Mismanagements/ incompetence leading to famine is still not the same as an intentional act; i.e., the Holodomor, Khmer Rouge, etc. China's Great Leap Forward was mainly due to gross mismanagement and likely not intentional. Just another example why collectivism and central planning were a failed experiment.

Same for the British in Ireland and India. Not intentional. Governments with unshaken faith on political/economic dogmas and ignoring the reality on the ground.

Economic and political theories are (or should be) elaborated to explain reality and not to make reality to adapt to them.

[Yuri]

Egypt

As most of the time we discuss the aging problem, let's talk about a country that's on the spotlight due overpopulation and now faces a serious threat regarding food security due the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Egypt seems rather large (996,603 km²) but 96% of the territory is unhabitable desert and the 100 million Egyptians and all their agriculture happen on only 35,000 km² (slightly bigger the Belgium), meaning an effective density of 2,800 people/km². That's more than any urban area in the US or Canada for instance. Egypt is basically a 1,000 km long city along the Nile.

Anyway, if things were not challenging enough, they've experienced a baby boom from an already high level on the past decade, but fortunately things started to accomodate now. Here the numbers:


----------- Population ------ Births ------ Deaths

1990 ---- 51,911,000 --- 1,687,000 --- 393,000

2000 ---- 63,860,000 --- 1,752,000 --- 405,000

2010 ---- 80,443,000 --- 2,261,000 --- 483,000

2014 ---- 88,530,000 --- 2,720,000 --- 532,000

2020 --- 100,604,000 --- 2,272,000 --- 664,000


Population has grown two-fold in mere 30 years. TFR is now at 2.7 children/women, which means a very strong growth ahead as their population are very young. A 150 million people Egypt (or more precisely, a 150 million people Egyptian Nile Valley) by 2040 or so is a given.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

21 days since the war, and 3,063,095 Ukrainians have left the country. 1 million/week average.

It's now very hard to track them for country as Schengen allows them to move around in Europe freely. There were reports 15,000/day were arriving in Berlin only.

And those numbers do not include people living in Donetsk and Luhansk republics and tens of thousands of them have left the region into Russia.

Ukraine sans Crimea is probably around 37 million people by now whereas Poland, the main recipient of refugees, might have probably exceeded 40 million people.

Today the number of people who fled Ukraine crossed the 4 million barrier: 4,019,287, after 5 weeks of war. The pace fell on the past days, to "only" 100,000 daily.

As peace negotiations seem to be advancing, I imagine the number of people leaving will fall even further. In any case, it's a massive demographic blow on the already battered Ukraine.

[muppet]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Same for the British in Ireland and India. Not intentional. Governments with unshaken faith on political/economic dogmas and ignoring the reality on the ground.
.

The famines may not have been intentional but there's some damning mismanagement - notably the denial of aid. Infamously the Irish still had to export to Britain as they starved, and India's switch to the colonial export machine under the East India Company/ Raj led to much more frequent and prolonged famines whenever the monsoons failed (for example food crops were forcibly switched to cash crops for textiles, and taxation rose from 20 to 50%), with far less aid or alleviation than say under the Mughals. This is a different nuance to other manmade famines - at least those were caused by mistakes, rather than repeating them without care.

Bengal in 1943 also lost out but not through crop mismanagement (the Burma road had been cut off by war and monsoons failed), and the lack of enough aid can be argued was to support the troops during war, as food shipments and medicines were diverted to Europe.

However, what doesn't stand the test of history was Churchill denying offers of aid from Canada and the US, saying the Indians 'breed like rabbits anyway'. When presented with a telegram from the Delhi Governate painting the picture of the horror, he replied 'well, why hasn't Gandhi died yet?' This proved one of the final nails for the Raj, and the coming independence of India.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Egypt seems rather large (996,603 km²) but 96% of the territory is unhabitable desert and the 100 million Egyptians and all their agriculture happen on only 35,000 km² (slightly bigger the Belgium), meaning an effective density of 2,800 people/km². That's more than any urban area in the US or Canada for instance.

Actually, Toronto's urban area density is 3,037/sqkm and Montreal's is 2,893/sqkm.

But yeah, point taken - the Nile Delta in particular is a pretty crazy patchwork of urbanity. And one that's rapidly losing arable land area due to population growth pressures:







https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/im...aring-farmland

[Yuri]

Ukraine

Almost two months since the beginning of war, 5,034,439 have left the country. Additionally, close to 8 million people have been displaced domestically. The war is longer and much more violent than expected, so unfortunately the crisis will most likely to keep going.

Many Ukrainians after crossing the borders into neighbouring countries, keep moving to other parts of EU: Austria with 150,000; Belgium with 31,000; Bulgaria with 87,000; Croatia with 15,000; Czech Republic with 430,000; Denmark with 40,000; Estonia with 32,000; Finland with 15,000; France with 55,000; Germany with 239,000; Greece with 17,000; Ireland with 13,000; Italy with 96,000; Latvia with 18,000; Lithuania with 46,000; Portugal with 31,000; Spain with 40,000; Switzerland with 25,000, United Kingdom with 41,000. Outside Europe, Australia took 5,000; Brazil 1,100; Israel 15,000; Turkey with 58,000.

Ukraine's population sans Crimea might have fell to 35 million or so.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Ukraine

The war is longer and much more violent than expected, so unfortunately the crisis will most likely to keep going.

I don't think that part was unexpected. The U.S. government warned Russia of this risk when they were still denying that they had any plans of an invasion.

[Yuri]

Canadian 2021 Census is out: 36,991,981 inh.

I guess the comparison is inevitable:

----------------------- 2021 --------- 2011 --------- 2001 ---------- 1991 --------- Growth %
CANADA ------------- 36,991,981 ---- 33,476,688 ---- 30,007,094 ---- 27,296,859 --- 10.5% --- 11.6% ---- 9.9%

----------------------- 2020 --------- 2010 --------- 2000 ---------- 1990 --------- Growth %
UNITED STATES ----- 331,449,281 --- 308,745,538 --- 281,421,906 --- 248,709,873 ---- 7.3% ---- 9.7% --- 13.2%

Canada's policy of mass immigration is working very well and their growth is considerably bigger than the US despite having a much lower fertility rate.

Immigration answers for over 80% of Canadian growth (about 300k-350k admissions/year) whereas the US is now below 1 million.

[Yuri]

Now the metro areas, Toronto+Hamilton+Oshawa+Guelph and Vancouver+Abbotsford:

------------------ 2020/2021 ------- 2010/2011 ------- 2000/2001 ------- 1990/1991

New York ---------- 22.692.839 --- 21.358.372 --- 20.675.403 --- 19.083.415 ----- 6,25% ----- 3,30% ----- 8,34%

Los Angeles ------- 18.644.680 --- 17.877.006 --- 16.373.645 --- 14.531.529 ----- 4,29% ----- 9,18% ---- 12,68%

Chicago ------------ 9.618.502 ---- 9.461.105 ---- 9.098.314 ---- 8.182.076 ----- 1,66% ----- 3,99% ---- 11,20%

San Francisco ------ 8.036.501 ---- 7.413.121 ---- 7.039.362 ---- 6.253.311 ----- 8,41% ----- 5,31% ---- 12,57%

Dallas ------------- 7.637.387 ---- 6.366.542 ---- 5.156.217 ---- 3.984.437 ---- 19,96% ---- 23,47% ---- 29,41%

Toronto ------------ 7.568.308 ---- 6.801.391 ---- 5.758.940 ---- 4.827.910 ---- 11,30% ---- 18,10% ---- 19,30%

Houston ------------ 7.122.240 ---- 5.920.416 ---- 4.693.161 ---- 3.750.883 ---- 20,30% ---- 26,15% ---- 25,12%

Philadelphia ------- 6.245.051 ---- 5.965.353 ---- 5.687.147 ---- 5.435.468 ----- 4,69% ----- 4,89% ----- 4,63%

Miami -------------- 6.138.333 ---- 5.564.635 ---- 5.007.564 ---- 4.056.100 ---- 10,31% ---- 11,12% ---- 23,46%

Washington --------- 6.105.431 ---- 5.388.326 ---- 4.635.194 ---- 3.997.373 ---- 13,31% ---- 16,25% ---- 15,96%

Boston ------------- 6.095.791 ---- 5.628.532 ---- 5.410.915 ---- 5.075.440 ----- 8,30% ----- 4,02% ----- 6,61%

Atlanta ------------ 6.089.815 ---- 5.286.728 ---- 4.263.438 ---- 3.082.308 ---- 15,19% ---- 24,00% ---- 38,32%

Detroit ------------ 5.325.319 ---- 5.218.852 ---- 5.357.538 ---- 5.095.695 ----- 2,04% ---- -2,59% ----- 5,14%

Seattle ------------ 4.871.272 ---- 4.199.312 ---- 3.707.144 ---- 3.088.224 ---- 16,00% ---- 13,28% ---- 20,04%

Phoenix ------------ 4.845.832 ---- 4.192.887 ---- 3.251.876 ---- 2.238.480 ---- 15,57% ---- 28,94% ---- 45,27%

Montreal ----------- 4.291.732 ---- 3.824.221 ---- 3.426.350 ---- 3.127.242 ---- 12,20% ---- 11,60% ----- 9,60%

Minneapolis -------- 3.635.128 ---- 3.279.833 ---- 2.968.806 ---- 2.538.834 ---- 10,83% ---- 10,48% ---- 16,94%

Denver ------------- 3.623.560 ---- 3.090.874 ---- 2.610.343 ---- 2.008.684 ---- 17,23% ---- 18,41% ---- 29,95%

San Diego ---------- 3.298.634 ---- 3.095.313 ---- 2.813.833 ---- 2.498.016 ----- 6,57% ---- 10,00% ---- 12,64%

Tampa -------------- 3.175.275 ---- 2.783.243 ---- 2.395.998 ---- 2.067.959 ---- 14,09% ---- 16,16% ---- 15,86%

Vancouver ---------- 2.838.551 ---- 2.483.519 ---- 2.134.335 ---- 1.712.502 ---- 14,30% ---- 16,40% ---- 24,60%

Baltimore ----------- 2.794.636 ---- 2.662.691 ---- 2.512.431 ---- 2.348.221 ----- 4,96% ----- 5,98% ----- 6,99%

Cleveland ----------- 2.790.470 ---- 2.780.440 ---- 2.843.103 ---- 2.759.823 ----- 0,36% ---- -2,20% ----- 3,02%

St. Louis ----------- 2.754.124 ---- 2.717.079 ---- 2.648.607 ---- 2.492.525 ----- 1,36% ----- 2,59% ----- 6,26%



--- Toronto slowing down considerably last decade, while its Texan competitors keep the pace (Houston not so much) and San Francisco goes faster. At least three decades behind Chicago;

--- Montreal is alone: way above Minneapolis but way behind Seattle and Phoenix. And faster than Toronto for the first time in almost a century;

--- Vancouver about to break the 3 million barrier.

[JManc]

Houston grew ~2x as fast as Toronto this past decade so HTX should surpass TO within the next 10-15 years or so. Either way, Toronto likely won't catch up to Dallas. If ever.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by JManc

Houston grew ~2x as fast as Toronto this past decade so HTX should surpass TO within the next 10-15 years or so. Either way, Toronto likely won't catch up to Dallas. If ever.

With all Toronto figures, it depends on what you want to consider Toronto, since Guelph was added above then Kitchener-waterloo and Barrie can equally be considered Toronto, this would add another million to the Toronto number, as Toronto is surrounded by many large metro areas. The greater golden horseshoe also recently passed 10 million which is what most people consider the widest diffintion of Toronto.