Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford
That's obviously nonsense, as the U.S., UK and France all have much higher birth rates than Japan, and more important, all are immigrant nations.
All three countries can have basically any population of their choosing via immigration. Japan is more or less closed, so dependent on birth rates.
France, in particular, has some of the highest birth rates in the developed world. The U.S. could have a billion people in a generation if it made such a choice (of course it won't go that extreme). The UK is a welcoming immigrant nation with higher-than-average birth rates.
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What's nonsense? Have I said those countries have lower birth rates than Japan?
I stated they're also experiencing a slowdown and that will impact their cities as consequences. In fact, the US recently slowdown was even faster than Japan, if decade growth falling from 13% to 6% over mere 20 years.
If Tokyo manages to grow 4% while Japan is shrinking -3%, when Japan to start to decline -10%/decade (they are still very far from it), Tokyo will go flat or start to shrink.
The same can be applied to New York: a US growing 13% more the chances for New York to grow faster than in a scenario of US growing zero (which happened in 2020 and 2021).
Britain and France are more stable, but the recent fall on TFR coupled with COVID made the former shrink in 2020 and latter very close to that.