1.4B SF Of U.S. Office Will Be Obsolete By 2030, Cushman & Wakefield Predicts

[James Bond Agent 007]

At the rate things are going, cities of the future are going to be a bit weird. They'll be mostly housing with small amounts of retail and office. Most people will work from home and a large percentage of stuff people consume will be delivered. It even makes me wonder if downtowns are going to be nearly obsolete. With so little demand for office space and retail, what else can they do, except perhaps have a lot of high-rise housing and a few entertainment spots?

[BigDipper 80]

Originally Posted by MayDay

Fwiw, the notable office buildings in Cleveland that have been repurposed for residential (partially or completely):

Thanks, for these, MayDay. Cleveland is case-in-point that you can find creative ways to convert posttwar office space into residential if you're creative. Obviously it's a case-by-case basis, but it's certainly not "impossible" if the market conditions are right.

[ocman]

Originally Posted by mhays

They're correct that large floorplates make it very difficult. How does an apartment use space that's 50' from a window, and get any rent for it? Light wells are often basically impossible depending on the building, particularly for anything tall.

What you might consider "provincial" is often the actual experts talking. I'm not an expert, but I work with a lot of them who say similar things. Seattle isn't getting a lot of conversions either.

They're going to have to figure out how to make it work. Otherwise, what alternative do they have, if office space demand is actually at its end game? A bunch of demolitions in the middle of downtown SF?

[mhays]

Cleveland and that potential SF outcome both point to the same thing: If office demand is crappy for a long time, and old office buildings are really cheap, the world can open up for housing. So far, building owners in places like SF and Seattle tend to be too optimistic about offices to go that route, and finances haven't pushed many into fire sales yet.

In my region, Downtown Tacoma looks like the leader in this trend for the same reason...low office demand vs. stronger housing demand.

Yes, I'd expect teardowns of many hard-to-convert buildings, eventually, if the market gets bad enough. It can cost more to convert than it would to tear down and build new, particularly in a seismic zone, and you get a better building in the end. But if the current building is dirt cheap, it might work to allow some units that have some hard-to-use space in the back, and that can be an option.

The biggest towers will likely just continue to struggle as offices, and benefit from competitors leaving the market in some fashion. They're sometimes harder to convert and tear down, though it's certainly doable.