Your city's Jewish community

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Quixote

But most NYC area Jews are of the legacy Streisand-Seinfeld-Drescher stock.

For a few more years, yes. Not for long.

The share of non-Orthodox Jews among the larger Jewish population in the NYC area is, by far, the lowest in the U.S. It's very much an outlier, especially for Reform Judaism.

[Quixote]

What percentage of the 2.1 million Jews in metro NYC are Orthodox?

[Docere]

The "under-performers" in the inner ring are Staten Island and Hudson County.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Quixote

What percentage of the 2.1 million Jews in metro NYC are Orthodox?

The UJA, the most prominent regional Jewish association, hasn't done a survey in a decade. Historically, they do surveys roughly every 10 years, so I assume the pandemic delayed the latest. Hopefully we get something shortly.

The 2011-12 survey had 40% of NYC Jews identifying as Orthodox, and 74% of NYC Jewish kids identifying as Orthodox.

Also, half of young adults in NYC region had attended Yeshivas or Hebrew day schools, while the proportion for older adults was 16%. Intermarriage rates were also quite low. These numbers are considerably different than national numbers, and will be even more divergent in the coming survey.

Also, the UJA survey doesn't count Monmouth (Lakewood), or the Rockland/Orange Hasidic counties. It only covers the city and inner suburban counties.

[Quixote]

^ Since those numbers are from 11 years ago and there was already a substantial Orthodox population at the time, a lot of the children then (ages 7-17) are now adults and their parents middle age. It stands to reason then that Greater NYC would have an outsized portion of Jews in the 18-24, 25-34, and 35-44 cohorts. However, the Brandeis project doesn't find that to be the case.


Greater NYC (not including Orange or CT)

18-24 (10.6%)
25-34 (16.7%)
35-44 (13.5%)

Total: 40.8%


Greater Los Angeles

18-24 (9.1%)
25-34 (13.5%)
35-44 (12.9%)

Total: 36.4%


Chicagoland*

18-24 (10.3%)
25-34 (16.3%)
35-44 (12.9%)

Total: 39.5%


BalWash*

DC

18-24 (10.1%)
25-34 (16.2%)
35-44 (15%)

Total: 41.3%

Baltimore

18-24 (10.6%)
25-34 (16.3%)
35-44 (12.4%)

Total: 39.3%

Philadelphia*

18-24 (10.4%)
25-34 (15.3%)
35-44 (12.3%)

Total: 38%


* Missing counties; wouldn't change the numbers much

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Quixote

^ Since those numbers are from 11 years ago and there was already a substantial Orthodox population at the time, a lot of the children then (ages 7-17) are now adults and their parents middle age. It stands to reason then that Greater NYC would have an outsized portion of Jews in the 18-24, 25-34, and 35-44 cohorts. However, the Brandeis project doesn't find that to be the case.

I don't understand your point. I have no idea what the Brandeis project is, and what do age cohorts have to do with the discussion of Orthodox vs. Non-Orthodox populations?

Also, what in the UJA survey would suggest that a later survey would have an outsized portion of Jews in those specific age cohorts?

[Quixote]

Orthodox Jews have large families. If NYC has an outsized portion of Orthodoxy among its Jewry, then logic says that the share of young adults would be substantially higher than other major Jewish metros... it's not.

Also bear in mind that out of the 6.6 million Jews in the U.S., an estimated 9% (according to Brandeis) are Orthodox. 75% of Jewish children being Orthodox is believable, but I'm skeptical about Jewry being 40% Orthodox. If that were the case, the national Orthodox population percentage would skew much higher.

Add up the estimated Jewish populations of the other major metros (LA, South Florida, Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago, DC, Bay Area), and you get a total of about 2.9 million Jews. If we assume an average of 6% (the lowest percentage I've seen floating around) Orthodoxy, that's 175,000 Orthodox Jews. The bottom line is that I find the idea of 400,000 Orthodox Jews residing in NYC proper hard to believe. Across the metro area? Sure, that makes sense.

[Quixote]

Jewish populations by CSA (give or take)

New York
2,100,000

Los Angeles
709,000

South Florida
540,000

DC-Baltimore
375,000

Boston
350,000

Philadelphia
330,000

Chicago
317,000

Bay Area
285,000

[Quixote]

I'll do Jewish children populations by CSA tomorrow.

[edale]

I'm as interested in demographics as the next urban nerd, but there seems to be a bit of a weird obsession with Jews on SSP. Are the main contributors to this thread even Jewish? Just seems odd to me to see talk of 'winners' and 'under performers' when talking about a group of people...like it's a contest to see who has the most.

[Crawford]

SSP has a lot of demographics nerds, that's all.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

SSP has a lot of demographics nerds, that's all.

The interesting thing is that it's pretty hard to get any solid statistics on Jewishness in the U.S. (and presumably elsewhere) since it's defined as a religion, not an ethnicity, and the Census doesn't track it.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by edale

Are the main contributors to this thread even Jewish?

Yes, why?

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Quixote

The bottom line is that I find the idea of 400,000 Orthodox Jews residing in NYC proper hard to believe. Across the metro area? Sure, that makes sense.

You've never been to South Williamsburg or Borough Park, apparently.

The Orthodox of South Williamsburg have pushed into far northern BedStuy and filled an industrial zone that was completely barren ten years ago. The family sizes are enormous.

I read somewhere that in NYC today, the typical Jewish child is Orthodox, not Reform or Conservative. That sounds preposterous until you walk through Brooklyn's Orthodox Neighborhoods.

Personally, I think in a generation or two, the typical Jewish person in NYC will actually be Orthodox. It has the potential to turn the political narrative in NYC and NYS on its head. NY's suburbs are getting redder whereas suburbs of other cities continue to get bluer and bluer. This is 1000% attributable IMO to the increasing numbers (in terms of % to whole) of conservative and Orthodox Jews in the NY area.

[Crawford]

I don't think outsiders understand the rapid transformation of the Jewish community in the area, which is starting to show in other metros too, as demographic trends register nationally.

The typical NY Jewish experience isn't the Upper West Side. It's neighborhoods like this:
https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6987...7i16384!8i8192

It's Williamsburg, Borough Park, Crown Heights, Ocean Parkway, Gravesend, Midwood, Flatbush, Kings Highway, Madison, Mill Basin. And that's just Brooklyn. That's a lot of real estate.

[McBane]

Pretty sure within a generation or two, there will be almost no Americans who identify as primarily culturally/ethnically Jewish as opposed to religiously observant.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by McBane

Pretty sure within a generation or two, there will be almost no Americans who identify as primarily culturally/ethnically Jewish as opposed to religiously observant.

but won't there always be some people who get raised in more observant environments who then grow up and fade off to become more culturally/ethnically jewish?

i mean, the orthodox can seal themselves as much as they can, but some people are always gonna wonder what's on the other side of the curtain.

i was raised very catholic, K-12 catholic schooling, church every sunday, frequent retreats, the whole 9. and i haven't set foot in a church outside of a relative's baptism/wedding/funeral in decades.

[edale]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Personally, I think in a generation or two, the typical Jewish person in NYC will actually be Orthodox. It has the potential to turn the political narrative in NYC and NYS on its head. NY's suburbs are getting redder whereas suburbs of other cities continue to get bluer and bluer. This is 1000% attributable IMO to the increasing numbers (in terms of % to whole) of conservative and Orthodox Jews in the NY area.

Yeah, I can definitely see a major Republican shift happening in NY as a result of the Orthodox. Might not be PC to say this, but Orthodox Jews almost have cult-like tendencies-- they're very insular and are not particularly interested or concerned about people outside of their communities. There are pretty infamous stories about Orthodox Jews taking over local school boards and subsequently looting the resources from the public schools in order to fund private yeshivas. There was a great This American Life episode about such a story in East Ramapo, NY: https://www.thisamericanlife.org/534...imple-majority

[Crawford]

If we're talking political changes, Five Towns, on Long Island, shows a stark political evolution.

Five Towns is an older, upper middle class group of related suburbs on the Queens border, It's been Jewish since the earliest waves of suburbanization right after WW2. But in the last 30 years it shifted from secular to Orthodox. Traditionally, it voted solidly blue. In 2020, it basically voted redder than a rural town in Alabama.

Five Towns isn't like Borough Park or Williamsburg. It's Orthodox, not Ultra-Orthodox, and it's as wealthy as ever. But the political shift is stunning. Not clear if this is permanent, however, bc Orthodox often don't vote party or even ideology but based on top-down guidance.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Five Towns isn't like Borough Park or Williamsburg. It's Orthodox, not Ultra-Orthodox, and it's as wealthy as ever. But the political shift is stunning. Not clear if this is permanent, however, bc Orthodox often don't vote party or even ideology but based on top-down guidance.

Another good example and the explanation for Nassau County going for Trump. Name another single first ring suburban county in the NE that went for Trump? I don't think there is a single example other than Nassau. It's because of Five Towns and other places like it on Long Island.

And agreed. The permanent allegiance to Republicans isn't guaranteed. At some point, I would think Conservative Jews will have to square the fact that they're worshipping at the same political alter as White Christian Nationalists, some of whom (ahem Doug Mastriano) have explicitly said there is no room in "their movement" for anyone that doesn't worship their god.