5 Charts That Capture Miami Real Estate’s Slowdown

[dimondpark]

I have run into more than one business acquaintance that moved to Miami during the pandemic and then moved back because the tech and vc scene there is just not what they were hoping.

[DCReid]

Is this also happening in other city or worsening the issue? Of course, these condos are really only for the rich or foreigners that want to park their money in US real estate...

There's Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Bentley, Aston Martin, Baccarat, E11even, Cipriani and Diesel. At this point, Las Vegas might as well have odds on the next brand to launch a condo in South Florida...

https://www.bisnow.com/south-florida...a-brand-123539

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Is this also happening in other city or worsening the issue? Of course, these condos are really only for the rich or foreigners that want to park their money in US real estate...

There's Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Bentley, Aston Martin, Baccarat, E11even, Cipriani and Diesel. At this point, Las Vegas might as well have odds on the next brand to launch a condo in South Florida...

https://www.bisnow.com/south-florida...a-brand-123539

Don't forget the 90 floor Dolce & Gabbana tower
https://www.thenextmiami.com/first-l...l-condo-hotel/

Edit (after work happy hour):
Miami has always gotten tons of negative speculative opinions on this forum since I've been on here back as a teenie bopper (I'm 41 now). I get that people hate the parking pedestals, machoism, flashiness and insufficient transit...however, the city will continue to dominate in skyscraper construction and now has the 3rd largest skyline in the USA after Chicago. The dynamics are not the same everywhere in the USA. Are there any large cities in the USA where condos are are not pricey in their downtowns or most desirable areas?

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

I have run into more than one business acquaintance that moved to Miami during the pandemic and then moved back because the tech and vc scene there is just not what they were hoping.

There was an article last year saying the same thing about Austin.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by LA21st

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-hou...rouble-1874962

Said it slid 2.5 percent. March 2024 article.

Miami is also the 2nd most rent burdened metro in america.

Sale prices are still going up though. February 2024 (most recent available) in Miami-Dade County single family home closing sale prices were still up 17% year over year. Condo prices were only up 7%.

Crazy that you have to go all the way up to St.Lucie County to find a county in South Florida were the median single family home price is under $600k (a 115 mile drive from Miami).

The reason for the constant high prices is that despite the narrative South Florida does not build much housing, especially outside of Downtown Miami. Per the census data, Miami's MSA has permitted half as many housing units as places like Austin or Atlanta and has permitted less than half as many single family homes as notoriously anti-developement west coast cities like Los Angeles. The narritive is why can't New York build new housing? New York has permitted 4 TIMES as much housing as Miami's MSA so far in 2024.

Miami builds the high profile projects in the core but it can't expand and sprawl outwards. Most other metros are sprawling like crazy at the fringes buliding tons of new housing.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

I have run into more than one business acquaintance that moved to Miami during the pandemic and then moved back because the tech and vc scene there is just not what they were hoping.

My niece and her bf moved from South Florida to Jacksonville because they could not find work in their respective careers, she's STEM, he's a software developer.

[benp]

Over 50,000 applications were submitted to enter the lottery for selection to be on the Miami-Dade waiting list for Section 8 housing vouchers. Only 5000 were selected - not for vouchers but to be on the waiting list for vouchers. Apartment rents have continued to increase, and I have senior family members who are running out of options as their rents are pricing them out with nowhere to go.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by dave8721

The reason for the constant high prices is that despite the narrative South Florida does not build much housing, especially outside of Downtown Miami. Per the census data, Miami's MSA has permitted half as many housing units as places like Austin or Atlanta and has permitted less than half as many single family homes as notoriously anti-developement west coast cities like Los Angeles. The narritive is why can't New York build new housing? New York has permitted 4 TIMES as much housing as Miami's MSA so far in 2024..

This is a good insight. I didn't realize that.

If this is the case, doesn't it risk becoming a ghost city in some ways? i.e. a place where only wealthy people can afford and live in only part time? Sort of like Charleston SC? Because at the end of the day, the vast majority of people in a metro can only afford what incomes will bear. There will always be very expensive outlier areas, but if the entire structure of the city is very expensive housing that only the rich and foreigners can afford to park their money in USD, it will empty out. Isn't Miami Dade shrinking (in population) for like the first time ever?

[Altoic]

1298 units permitted in February is low for Miami's MSA. But looking closer at the data it seems like a bulk of the units are multifamily, in fact of the 1298 only 396 units were single family or consisted of lower than 5 units while 860 units were multifamily (5 or more units).

That's a large amount of multifamily units, especially per capita.

The only way to build single family housing is southern miami-dade, and there's still urban development boundaries that restrict building near farm land.

Miami-Dade and Broward need a zoning refresh to allow higher density or middle-housing options. Currently a large swath of land is still dedicated to single-family homes with unrealistic zoning requirements.

[mhays]

Yeah, many states/cities have been expanding missing-middle options, often as a blanket requirement for single-family areas that don't have deed restrictions. It would be a smart move. The devil is in the details of course. It's much harder to pencil MM housing if you have off-street parking requirements, for starters.

[Crawford]

Long-term, South Florida has the worst housing crisis in the U.S., by far. The Bay Area still has room, but South Florida is completely hemmed in by the Everglades. There's no place to sprawl, and no, not everyone is gonna live in 30-floor condos in Aventura or Sunny Isles. Even the most apartment-oriented metros need relatively affordable SFH.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Long-term, South Florida has the worst housing crisis in the U.S., by far. The Bay Area still has room, but South Florida is completely hemmed in by the Everglades. There's no place to sprawl, and no, not everyone is gonna live in 30-floor condos in Aventura or Sunny Isles. Even the most apartment-oriented metros need relatively affordable SFH.

Maybe Miami could do what Houston did: Reduce their minimum lot size (5000sf to 1400sf in Houston's case), upgrade utility capacity then get out of the way.

Miami on Flickr

Houston on Flickr

That area in Miami is about 2/10 of a mile closer to Miami's downtown than the area in Houston is to its downtown.

[Altoic]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

Maybe Miami could do what Houston did: Reduce their minimum lot size (5000sf to 1400sf in Houston's case), upgrade utility capacity then get out of the way.

Miami on Flickr

Houston on Flickr

That area in Miami is about 2/10 of a mile closer to Miami's downtown than the area in Houston is to its downtown.

Houston's inner city density in most of Miami would be great. Something like Tokyo or Kobe for example with restaurants on the bottom of homes would be nice but is unrealistic.

The Live Local Act I believe will provide a lot of this density relief.

[benp]

Miami's inner city population density is still much greater than Houston's. Compare population from center of downtown, different radii:

Radius in mi/Miami pop/Houston pop
1 mi /69,257 /26,209
2 mi /184,004 /84,430
3 mi /283,618 /188,295
5 mi /515,939 /419,839

Subtracting ocean area, here is the approximate density in persons per sq mile

Radius/Miami/Houston
1 mi /27,700 /11,500
2 mi /24,500 /6,700
3 mi /20,000 /6,600
5 mi /11,000 /5,300

[JManc]

Downtown Houston is pretty underwhelming and has been slow compared to most major cities as far as building up a sizable residential population. Downtown Miami is vibrant by comparison with a huge demand for high rise living.

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by Altoic

1298 units permitted in February is low for Miami's MSA. But looking closer at the data it seems like a bulk of the units are multifamily, in fact of the 1298 only 396 units were single family or consisted of lower than 5 units while 860 units were multifamily (5 or more units).

That's a large amount of multifamily units, especially per capita.

The only way to build single family housing is southern miami-dade, and there's still urban development boundaries that restrict building near farm land.

Miami-Dade and Broward need a zoning refresh to allow higher density or middle-housing options. Currently a large swath of land is still dedicated to single-family homes with unrealistic zoning requirements.

What do you do about the pesky NIMBYs that show up and complain at city/county meetings? There aren't a ton of YIMBYs to counteract them from what I've seen. This is the biggest hurdle for zoning changes here and pretty much everywhere in the USA. People go ballistic about "traffic, crime, shadows, etc." when mid-rises are built in my area.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by benp

Miami's inner city population density is still much greater than Houston's. Compare population from center of downtown, different radii:

Radius in mi/Miami pop/Houston pop
1 mi /69,257 /26,209
2 mi /184,004 /84,430
3 mi /283,618 /188,295
5 mi /515,939 /419,839

Subtracting ocean area, here is the approximate density in persons per sq mile

Radius/Miami/Houston
1 mi /27,700 /11,500
2 mi /24,500 /6,700
3 mi /20,000 /6,600
5 mi /11,000 /5,300

My post was specifically responding to Crawford's suggestion that Miami has no space to expand its single family housing stock and not everyone wants to live in a high rise apartment. A cursory view of Miami's inner city using Google Earth shows mile after mile (after even more miles) of one-storey houses on big(ish) lots. I wasn't able to find any inner city areas with the densely-built housing style shown in the screen cap of Houston above. Makes me half-jokingly wonder if Miami's higher density is because people are living twelve-to-a-room in those SFHs and small apartment buildings surrounding Miami's downtown.

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

My post was specifically responding to Crawford's suggestion that Miami has no space to expand its single family housing stock and not everyone wants to live in a high rise apartment. A cursory view of Miami's inner city using Google Earth shows mile after mile (after even more miles) of one-storey houses on big(ish) lots. I wasn't able to find any inner city areas with the densely-built housing style shown in the screen cap of Houston above. Makes me half-jokingly wonder if Miami's higher density is because people are living twelve-to-a-room in those SFHs and small apartment buildings surrounding Miami's downtown.

The City of Miami is tiny, so I'm guessing you are probably not looking at houses in the City of Miami. Most municipalities down here are small in geographical size.

[Crawford]

Miami is generally much higher density than Houston, and I don't see much room to add tons of SFH in existing neighborhoods.

Houston has a crapload of in-town teardowns bc the existing vintage housing stock is generally really bad, with shotgun homes and the like. But the vast majority of new housing is on the exurban fringe, which doesn't exist in South FL. It's fully built out to the Everglades.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

The City of Miami is tiny, so I'm guessing you are probably not looking at houses in the City of Miami. Most municipalities down here are small in geographical size.

I'm looking at neighborhoods literally just across I-95 from Downtown Miami. The screen cap above is NW 41st Street at NW 10th Avenue, less than 3 miles from Downtown. Everywhere I looked is lowrise, single family homes or small apartment complexes.