City Murder Rates

[ATXboom]

Originally Posted by edale

While it's true that Chicago's homicide rate is lower than a number of US cities, it also has the greatest number of murders in absolute numbers of any US city, and it's not even close. Chicago had over 800 murders in 2021. New York and LA hovered around 400, for comparison with the other bonafide big US cities. That's pretty astounding. I think it's hard to argue a city like Cleveland, which has a homicide rate higher than Chicago but 'only' had 165 murders in 2021, is more dangerous than a city that had 800 murders.

Come on man... that's the same logic Trump used when seeing all the Red across the country on voting maps lol. Sure there's a lot of Red but no one lives there lol.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

it's not hard to argue that all.

on a per capita basis, it's just factually true.

the city of chicago is 7.4x bigger than the city of cleveland (2,746,388 vs. 372,624).



but for like the 1 millionth time now, comparing cities on this measure using city proper numbers is very apples to oranges.

"per 100K MSA homicide rate" is a FAR more meaningful metric for comparison.

and we almost never get that because the "journalists" who create these most dangerous listicles are usually lazy and/or stupid.

To be fair, it's also harder to calculate in near-realtime.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by edale

While it's true that Chicago's homicide rate is lower than a number of US cities, it also has the greatest number of murders in absolute numbers of any US city, and it's not even close. Chicago had over 800 murders in 2021. New York and LA hovered around 400, for comparison with the other bonafide big US cities. That's pretty astounding. I think it's hard to argue a city like Cleveland, which has a homicide rate higher than Chicago but 'only' had 165 murders in 2021, is more dangerous than a city that had 800 murders.

So, NYC is more dangerous than Cleveland or East St. Louis?

[edale]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

So, NYC is more dangerous than Cleveland or East St. Louis?

In what universe does it make sense to compare a city of nearly 3 million people with a city of ~25,000 people (East St. Louis)? East St. Louis could maybe be compared to a single neighborhood of Chicago.

Smaller cities plagued by population loss will of course have high crime/homicide rates. Crime is also concentrated in those cities-- East Side of Cleveland, North Side of St. Louis, etc. But you're talking about a much smaller unsafe geography compared to Chicago, which didn't suffer wholesale abandonment. Chicago has tons of wealthy neighborhoods, a booming core, a large middle class bungalow belt, etc. all in its city limits, and it still has a homicide rate comparable to a city like Cleveland that has lost 2/3 of its population from peak. I'd say Chicago is certainly the more dangerous city.

It's absurd that Chicago, which is basically a third of the size of NYC, has double the homicides.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by edale

I'd say Chicago is certainly the more dangerous city.

the per capita math says otherwise.



if you're gonna argue that chicago is more dangerous than cleveland because it has more total murders.

then you're also gonna have to agree that new york is more dangerous than cleveland because it also has more total murders.

do you honestly believe that new york is a more dangerous city than cleveland?

you can certainly believe that if you like, but you'd be a fool to expect many others to agree with you.

[subterranean]

This week, 2022 became the second worst year on record in Portland, Ore., with 67 homicides so far this year. Last year we hit 90 homicides, smashing a record from 3 decades ago (66). 2021 not only saw the highest number of murders ever recorded in the city, it was also the highest per capita.

At three quarters of the way to last year's record, and with 3 months yet to go, we're on track to match last year.

[Yuri]

São Paulo state - 1Q/2022

Homicides: 1,395 (-6.7% compared with Q1/2018)

Deaths by police: 221 (down from 420 in in the Q1/2018)

São Paulo state has 46,649,132 (2021 Estimates), for a rate of 5.98/100,000 homicide/population. It's a 20 year-long fall, from 40/100,000 in 2000. From one of the most violent to the least violent.

About police lethality in Brazil, 6,133 were killed by the police in 2021. 183 police officers were killed. Number of homicides (not including by the police, unless it's treated as such by prosecution), reached 41,100 in 2021.



----------------------


EDIT:

São Paulo state registered 13,133 homicides in 2001; in 2021, only 2,847

[Yuri]

São Paulo capital (Jul 2021-Jun 2022)

It reached an all-time low at 4.32/100,000, falling below NYC 5.5/100,000.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Yuri

São Paulo capital (Jul 2021-Jun 2022)

It reached an all-time low at 4.32/100,000, falling below NYC 5.5/100,000.

This is actually very impressive.

Has it been achieved by being "mean" to criminals? Or at least are some people complaining that the authorities are not being nice to criminals?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This is actually very impressive.

Has it been achieved by being "mean" to criminals? Or at least are some people complaining that the authorities are not being nice to criminals?

Homicides are the easiest crime to track, so underreport is quite low. And there are two different sources: States' Police Secretaries data and federal Health Ministry (violent deaths).

Ironically, São Paulo decided around 2000 to follow NYC Giuliani's "zero tolerance" model. More for an advertising thing than actually copy and paste NYPD strategies. Lots of investments on police, on intel and murders were reduced year by year when in the rest of the country actually grew a bit. Criminal Law in Brazil is a federal matter, so states have no competence there. And police is states matter, not cities' like in the US.

About other crimes, underreport is actually very low because it's very simple to register crime here. People do it by internet and everybody does to protect themselves from document forgery, stuff like that. Not because police will actually investigate small robberies.

I was checking the numbers, and if this trend was to be keep, São Paulo might fall below New York in absolute numbers as well (520 vs 480 now).

Another thing: people's perception on crime haven't change much. People are not aware of this consistent fall. I guess that happened in New York to some degree as well. It's a process, so people don't notice it.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Homicides are the easiest crime to track, so underreport is quite low. And there are two different sources: States' Police Secretaries data and federal Health Ministry (violent deaths).

Ironically, São Paulo decided around 2000 to follow NYC Giuliani's "zero tolerance" model. More for an advertising thing than actually copy and paste NYPD strategies. Lots of investments on police, on intel and murders were reduced year by year when in the rest of the country actually grew a bit. Criminal Law in Brazil is a federal matter, so states have no competence there. And police is states matter, not cities' like in the US.

About other crimes, underreport is actually very low because it's very simple to register crime here. People do it by internet and everybody does to protect themselves from document forgery, stuff like that. Not because police will actually investigate small robberies.

I was checking the numbers, and if this trend was to be keep, São Paulo might fall below New York in absolute numbers as well (520 vs 480 now).

Another thing: people's perception on crime haven't change much. People are not aware of this consistent fall. I guess that happened in New York to some degree as well. It's a process, so people don't notice it.

People believe what they want to believe.

Here people consider Montreal to be dangerous but it has I think 27 murders for 2 million people so far. It will probably end the year with a rate of around 1.5 per 100,000.

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

11/8 2022

Sweden (pop 10.2 mil)
Estimated total: 73 (44 deadly shootings)
- Up from 70 this date 2021

Stockholm Metro (pop 2.4 mil)
Estimated total: 32 (21 deadly shootings)
- Up from 30 this date in 2021

Within City limits/Municipality (Pop 960.000)
Estimated total: 17 (8 deadly shootings)
- Up from 13 this date in 2021

Gothenburg/Göteborg Municipality (Pop 578 000)
Estimated total: 3 (2 deadly shooting)
- Down from 7 this date in 2021

Malmo/Malmö Municipality (Pop 344 000)
Estimated total: 8 (4 Deadly shootings)
- Up from 2 this date in 2021

18/10 2022

Sweden (pop 10.2 mil)
Estimated total: 87 (53 deadly shootings)
- Up from 82 this date 2021

Stockholm Metro (pop 2.4 mil)
Estimated total: 35 (26 deadly shootings)
- Down from 36 this date in 2021

Within City limits/Municipality (Pop 960.000)
Estimated total: 17 (8 deadly shootings)
- Down from 18 this date in 2021

Gothenburg/Göteborg Municipality (Pop 578 000)
Estimated total: 6 (4 deadly shooting)
- Down from 8 this date in 2021

Malmo/Malmö Municipality (Pop 344 000)
Estimated total: 9 (5 Deadly shootings)
- Up from 2 this date in 2021

-------

The two big cities are similar as last year, or slightly down. Malmö is back to where its usually at. Atleast per my estimation as we have to wait until the beginning or next year to know for sure about some investigations that might end up being murders.

The big news in the media is that deadly shootings are up and is already the highest that has ever been (Highest per capita in Western Europe as far as i know), even though its only october. Lots of young victims and perpetrators.

Murders not linked to organized crime is steadily on its way down, or atleast not up.

[Oliver May]

Quebec City has reached 3 for 2022 - the police have been a little bit coy about the details. Obviously, I know many people in my adopted city but I personally knew the victim have rented a bachelor apartment to him (between 2015 and 2017 if my memory serves).

https://www.journaldequebec.com/2022...sse-judiciaire

[BG918]

Milwaukee breaks their homicide record for a third straight year with 194 homicides YTD.

[Northern Light]

Toronto at 64 homicides as at Dec 2nd.

This, so far, is the lowest YTD total in the last 5 years. (by 1)

Shootings are also down noticeably this year, to a 5 year low.

Homicide Rate (per 100k) (annualized) 2.3

[dc_denizen]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/29/healt...ies/index.html

Overall, men are significantly more at risk. Nearly 86% of all firearm deaths since 1990 have been among men, according to the study, which used data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The researchers found that firearm homicides were highest among Black men, and firearm suicide rates were highest among senior White men.

Rates of firearm homicide for both men and women nearly doubled between 2014 and 2021, but men were still more than five times more likely to die than women. Rates of firearm suicide were also seven times higher among men than women in 2021, despite increasing suicide rates among women over time.

The racial disparities are even starker. The homicide rate among young Black men – 142 homicide deaths for every 100,000 Black men ages 20 to 24 – was nearly 10 times higher than the overall firearm death rate in the US in 2021.

Homicide rates among Black and Hispanic men were highest in the 20 to 24 age group. But for White men, the rate was highest in the 30 to 34 age group. When comparing these groups, the homicide rate was nearly four times higher among young Hispanic men compared with White men, and the homicide rate among young Black men was a staggering 22 times higher than among White men

if you're not 18-25 and black US cities are very safe, given that white homicide skews overwhelmingly rural

[BG918]

Jackson, MS continues to have one of the highest murder rates in the US. The city just hit 130 homicides with a population of 166,000. This after recording 153 homicides in 2021, 99.5 per 100k residents. That ranks up there with Juarez and Tijuana, and is higher than cities like Caracas and Johannesburg.

[Yuri]

1.8 million Brazilians were robbeb in 2021 according to Brazilian Statistical Office

Almost 1% of population. 1.396 million of the victims were out of their houses, 195k inside the house, 117k on the car, 105k on motorbike and 55k on bikes. Numbers are a bit higher (5%-30%) than the official stats as not everybody reports.

Cell phones robberies are an epidemic: almost 900,000 last year. That's according to the police stations registers all over the country.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by BG918

Jackson, MS continues to have one of the highest murder rates in the US. The city just hit 130 homicides with a population of 166,000. This after recording 153 homicides in 2021, 99.5 per 100k residents. That ranks up there with Juarez and Tijuana, and is higher than cities like Caracas and Johannesburg.

shocking and sad ... but i'm still goin'


• Video Link

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by edale

In what universe does it make sense to compare a city of nearly 3 million people with a city of ~25,000 people (East St. Louis)? East St. Louis could maybe be compared to a single neighborhood of Chicago.

Smaller cities plagued by population loss will of course have high crime/homicide rates. Crime is also concentrated in those cities-- East Side of Cleveland, North Side of St. Louis, etc. But you're talking about a much smaller unsafe geography compared to Chicago, which didn't suffer wholesale abandonment. Chicago has tons of wealthy neighborhoods, a booming core, a large middle class bungalow belt, etc. all in its city limits, and it still has a homicide rate comparable to a city like Cleveland that has lost 2/3 of its population from peak. I'd say Chicago is certainly the more dangerous city.

It's absurd that Chicago, which is basically a third of the size of NYC, has double the homicides.

speaking of size, actually chicago is three times the size of cleveland area wise, but afaik its notorious murderous crime is pretty highly concentrated. otoh the reckless murder in cle is pretty spread out. mostly its on some eastside neighborhoods, but the south and west have rough areas and murders too. i saw a murder map once and was a bit shocked at how spread out it was. and unlike chicago there really are no very wealthy areas. therefore, although its unlikely overall, still it would seem you are much more likely to maybe run into troubles going here and there around the cleve than in traveling around chicago.

looks like cle leads chi in both violent and property crime for 2022:
https://www.bestplaces.net/crime/?ci...city2=51714000