AUSTIN | Misc. Discussions - No Politics

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by H2O

There is some evidence of patients getting reinfected months after recovery.

New York Times reported 3 “published” cases, out of 38m. This was a month ago.

[We vs us]

I didn't mean to make this a virus thread, per se . . . only wanted to speculate about what development changes Austin might see if the virus is virtually eliminated in a relatively short (yearish?) span, which seems the path we're generally on if the 90-95% efficacy level holds.

For instance, I think that the incidence of WFH will continue, though not at 100%. Maybe workers do 50% office time a week, generally speaking? That will lower the temp a bit on traffic and downtown office occupancies.

[H2O]

Originally Posted by urbancore

New York Times reported 3 “published” cases, out of 38m. This was a month ago.

My point was that there is a lot more we don't know about the virus than we do. On a positive note, the Times had this story just this morning:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/h...1d056ba673051b

However, since we have not lived with this virus for a full year yet, there is no way to know for sure if it will behave like other coronaviruses and the flu, some of which which return in annual waves with slight mutations, needing differently formulated vaccinations each year.

I'm not trying to be a negative nelly, there has been some very positive vaccine news lately that gives me hope. However, the reality is unless vaccines are 100% effective and 100% of the population receives them, Covid-19 will be with us some time. My hope is that it can be suppressed enough that we can return to some semblance of normality soon.

To bring it back to development, I do hope this experience changes some behavior in our society. For instance, not going to work and school when you are sick (and labor conditions that promote that), wearing masks when you may be exposed to a virus, and increased WFH.

More directly on topic, I wonder how this will affect office layouts in the future. The trend has been to much higher density layouts with small work stations rather than private offices and cubicles (that is partly why it seems new office buildings seem to have so much more parking - they accommodate much higher numbers of workers in the same square footage). This is potentially a higher liability in a pandemic, but it also facilitates greater WFH by offering more flexible 'hoteling'.

[drummer]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the cubicle, or some form of it, come back. The trend has been more open concept and/or "hotel space" for individuals or teams as opposed to semi-permanent work stations. Obviously WFH will come into play in some industries, but that's not doable in all cases, of course.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by We vs us

For instance, I think that the incidence of WFH will continue, though not at 100%. Maybe workers do 50% office time a week, generally speaking? That will lower the temp a bit on traffic and downtown office occupancies.

Maybe, if it's distributed.

Personally my team at work has talked about doing something like that. But you still want your in-office time to coincide with your coworkers (if not, what's the point).

So if Company A works in-office MWF and Company B TTh, that would reduce peak traffic loads.

But how likely is that, or is everyone going to WFH Monday and Friday, which leads to peak traffic T-Th staying the same.

[We vs us]

Came across this article from the Washington DC business journal -- interesting re: the ramifications of more permanent, more widespread WFH. Sorry for the wall of text, but it's got good points.

The Urban Trail: Work-from-home is likely to alter urban planning beyond the pandemic

By Liz Price – ULI Washington
Nov 20, 2020, 5:00am EST

As 2020 winds to a close, we gratefully look ahead to a new year and how our region will adapt to the dramatic changes and impacts of the global Covid-19 pandemic. It is certainly true that once there is an effective and widely available vaccine, many things will return to “normal” fairly quickly. Our kids will go back to school — thankfully! We will eagerly gather with our friends and family at restaurants, theaters and concerts. There are signs, however, that other behaviors and preferences may not return to pre-pandemic norms and may shift development patterns and customer demand for the longer term.

The Urban Land Institute and EY recently released a report on the future of work, based on a global survey of real estate industry leaders that points to expected long-term shifts in the office market. There is strong consensus that the work-from-home (WFH) experiment is here to stay. Ninety-six percent said working from home was likely or very likely to increase in the next three to five years compared with pre-Covid levels. Remote work is expected to increase from 20% of employees working remotely one day a week, to 60% of employees working remotely two or more days in that time period.

With increased flexibility to WFH, the purpose and design of the office will also likely shift. The report found that 53% expect office space reductions in the near term, while 37% anticipate no change. While fewer employees may be in the office at any one time, there are clear preferences for more space per employee and health and safety enhancements. While technology has kept us connected these last eight months and enabled productivity for many, most respondents found that in-person work is more effective at fostering innovation and creativity and is critical to creating corporate culture and attracting and nurturing talent. Studies have found that younger employees, in particular, need the face-to-face interaction for professional development and social outlets, not to mention their challenge fitting a home office into their microunits.

With the “office” no longer a monolithic idea, a full ecosystem will be needed to support the needs of workers around the region. Many homebuyers and renters will prioritize more square footage with dedicated home offices and private outdoor spaces to more comfortably accommodate WFH. Architects like Torti Gallas are already rethinking multifamily building amenities to include rentable “home office pods.” Sixty-seven percent of respondents said smaller satellite offices on the edge of cities were likely or very likely to increase. This trend could drive additional commercial demand to our region’s increasingly urbanized suburbs. The DMV already has the highest proportion of suburban office space nationally at 58%, and Tysons alone is the seventh-largest office market in the country with 28 million square feet. Finally, WFH could bring renewed support for “third places” — cafes, restaurants, parks and public spaces — that will be frequented by local residents who spend more of their work week closer to home.

We would expect the global findings about long-term shifts in WFH to hold true in the D.C. region, given that the DMV already has the third-highest work-from-home rate nationally behind San Jose and San Francisco. Our significant local and federal government presence and our strong business services sector are more conducive to virtual work than other sectors like tourism, hospitality and manufacturing. While our high WFH percentage has allowed many regional companies to maintain productivity during the downturn, it could also delay their return to “the office,” which may extend the suffering of the local retail and service economy in the downtown core.

The Downtown D.C. Business Improvement District‘s recent Economic Update Report quantifies the stark economic impacts on retailers and restaurants in the central business district (CBD). Metro’s average weekday ridership in September was 8% of September 2019 levels, up from 4% in June and 2% in April. Office occupancy hovers at 10%, up from 5% this summer. The shops, restaurants and other services that depend on foot traffic are struggling or shuttered. The daytime population in the CBD dropped from 256,000 in February to 47,000 in October, and retail vacancies rose to a record high of 18%. Retail sales were 40% to 60% of 2019 levels, while restaurant sales were 30% to 50%.

We can hope that containment of the virus regionally and additional health and safety precautions will slowly bring more visitors and workers downtown and provide some much-needed relief — and customers — to local businesses. It’s more probable, however, that the fortunes of downtown businesses will depend on a safe and effective vaccine that will likewise usher in a new era of work.

Liz Price is executive director of ULI Washington. She writes The Urban Trail column for the Washington Business Journal.

https://www.bizjournals.com/washingt...-planning.html

[wwmiv]

I would imagine office developers will also be more keen on mixed use designs and districts with a residential component at LOWER levels of income (not just the upper income brackets) to keep those workers closer to their offices while they WFH. That’s beneficial to urban planning.

I also expect there to be a renewed and prolonged focus on outdoor urban parks.

Austin is well primed for all of these developments, and these economic developments IMHO should actually accelerate Austin’s urbanization.

One scary thought tho: what happens to convention business and how does this affect our convention center expansion?

[lonewolf]

conventions will have to be redesigned and i can see the silver lining of the pandemic hitting before we got shovels in dirt on cc expansion that we get to do ours on a structural level

[drummer]

Yeah, I agree that it's good in some ways that construction hasn't started on anything yet. It will allow for redesign in many ways - not just from an engineering standpoint, but also based on a needs analysis. It could save us in the end from having to re-purpose much of a very purpose-built facility later.

That said, I don't think conventions will go away, but they will most certainly change, especially as businesses have had the pandemic to prioritize business travel, etc. Obviously the networking capabilities in-person are much preferred for many than virtual ones...but I predict these things will be more and more of a hybrid moving forward.

[lonewolf]

i mean.. i'm not THAT worried about the overhaul of these industries. we (and everyone almost) have an economy built around travel and associated cottage industries. airlines, hotels, convention centers etc have too much invested in them to be tossed aside. I can see tech naturally suited for downsizing this stuff and i think the finance industry is going to have to get a whoooole lot more agile as crypto matures. aside from that i see things getting very close to "normal" but maybe a bit more room

[We vs us]

The medium and long term outlook for conventions is still good. Attendees and exhibitors alike still think F2F meetings have the most value (compared to 100% virtual) and groups are anxious to get back in person when it’s safe. Vaccines/therapeutics are pivotal for this, though... so the recent parade of vaccine news really brightens things comparatively.

There’s a developing consensus now that if the vaccines can get rolled out quickly and efficiently, and the incoming Biden Admin starts to actively manage things, we could see meeting start to take off in late Q2/early Q3 of 2021. And the increase should be pretty fast and robust. That said, full recovery (back to peak 2019 levels) won’t happen till early 2024ish.

Conventions will definitely change, but it’s not clear how. Much of the content can be replicated digitally — and having a concurrent virtual broadcast going at all times seems likely to continue. But there are huge gaps in other parts of the experience. One of the things that technology has NOT been able to effectively replace is the tradeshow floor. There’s no good way to virtually wander around and see what’s being exhibited. Another is the serendipity of meeting people in public places — at the coffee breaks between sessions, at the hotel bar, in restaurants out in the host city, etc. Safe to say that information transfer works just fine virtually, but having memorable human experiences very much does not.

(Incidentally this is why many of think meetings/conventions will bounce back so strongly — there’s no substitute for human contact, or hunger for new in-person experiences... which is at core what all of this stuff is about anyway.)

In my opinion, we’ll still need a building with a whole lot of contiguous space. It’ll still need to be in a desirable, interesting place, which is almost certainly still going to Be downtown Austin. We just need to make it through the next six months or so... which could still
be pretty devastating.

[ahealy]

I've thought about this a lot over the past year. Will there be a drastic push toward a more useful 6th street due to closures? Or will this push things into a more rough territory?

Honestly, I would love to see 6th become wayyyyy more day time oriented with less shitty businesses over time. I think they just need to do some sort of residential project (maybe a skinny tower) + hotel to get the ball rolling in that direction.

[lonewolf]

I've not heard any talk of such a thing happening. But maybe. dirty 6th low key kind of a shotty area to begin with, would need a lot of work. lamar and soco much more suitable for shopping avenues

[Sigaven]

Originally Posted by ahealy

I've thought about this a lot over the past year. Will there be a drastic push toward a more useful 6th street due to closures? Or will this push things into a more rough territory?

Honestly, I would love to see 6th become wayyyyy more day time oriented with less shitty businesses over time. I think they just need to do some sort of residential project (maybe a skinny tower) + hotel to get the ball rolling in that direction.

So do away with arguably the best nightlife district in Texas? I know dirty 6th is a little rough but I think it's part of what makes downtown Austin so succesful/vibrant.

[Tyrone Shoes]

Cities and towns would give their 'eye teeth' to have a downtown night life like Austin. I'm sure it's been studied and copied...just like the river walk, Beale Street, and the French Quarter have been copied.

[Maximusx1]

Originally Posted by ahealy

I've thought about this a lot over the past year. Will there be a drastic push toward a more useful 6th street due to closures? Or will this push things into a more rough territory?

Honestly, I would love to see 6th become wayyyyy more day time oriented with less shitty businesses over time. I think they just need to do some sort of residential project (maybe a skinny tower) + hotel to get the ball rolling in that direction.

Two dream additions to dirty 6th:
1. A large office tower at 7th and San Jacinto to add some daytime business/office type people to for the dirty 6th lunch crowd

2. A Joe Rogan comedy hall/hotel on the current Texas Lottery property at 6th and Red River. It would pair with Esthers Folies and be a large (think Texas Live at Globe Life in Arlington) venue for comedy and concerts on Dirty 6th. It's a little Grand 'Ol Opry hokey, but I think it could fit in Austin at the intersection of convention world, dirty 6th party world and Red River live music venues

[We vs us]

Originally Posted by ahealy

I've thought about this a lot over the past year. Will there be a drastic push toward a more useful 6th street due to closures? Or will this push things into a more rough territory?

Honestly, I would love to see 6th become wayyyyy more day time oriented with less shitty businesses over time. I think they just need to do some sort of residential project (maybe a skinny tower) + hotel to get the ball rolling in that direction.

I've thought about this a lot, too. I used to steer so many of my clients away from 6th and over to Rainey or 2nd or to the Warehouse District, etc. It seems weird for Dirty Sixth to still be so dirty, when it could so easily be spruced up into something else entirely.

The only answer i could come up with is ARCH/Salvation Army . . . as well as just collective agreement that it is what it is and always will be amen. A lack of imagination, maybe.

The lack of imagination will eventually be solved by the market, and that part of the city is going to continue to close in on 6th, one way or another. Think about under developed lots in that area -- Carmelos, Avenue Lofts, Texas Lottery Commission, a couple of unencumbered surface lots on 7th around the Episcopal Church. When we saw the Westin, and now the Thompson/Tommie go in, it was clear that the rest of those parcels would have the same pressure on them.

The prob is the ARCH. No surprise there. But it has to be solved for Dirty to get cleaned up, IMO. Until then, it's going to stay looking like half saloon/half flop house.

[H2O]

The other big problem is Bob Woody. He makes a lot of money just the way it is and has no motivation to change it.

[wwmiv]

6th Street should not be changed or “cleaned up” or whatever newfangled term we come up with to destroy our city’s nightlife under the false and deceptive guise of “progress”.

That would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face. It has, as it exists, always been a necessary part of what drives Austin‘s growth. Are you all trying to advocate for Austin’s growth curve to shift downward?

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by H2O

The other big problem is Bob Woody. He makes a lot of money just the way it is and has no motivation to change it.

Bingo