US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by lonewolf

are they blaming the states they overcounted by more than 5% on too much state promotion? (rhetorical question)

yikes what a mess

The whole 2020 census is a s***show. Not too mention they started off counting late, so I would take this with a grain of salt. I'm most certain that Texas is undercounted by almost a million if not more. I posted in another forum that Texas has nearly 31 million residents and wouldn't be surprised if current number is actually higher.

[drummer]

I think this may have been posted elsewhere....just plopping this here for now.


Report: Austin metro to surpass San Antonio metro population by 2040
https://www.kxan.com/news/local/aust...ation-by-2040/

[GoldenBoot]

^^^Interesting. However, I've been saying for years that it will be closer to 2031-2034. The TWDB is not exactly an excellent source in demographical/statistical analysis. They are far too conservative.

Austin AND San Antonio's metros should pass the 3 million marks around 2031 or 2032. By 2035 Austin may have just over 3.3 million while SA may have just under 3.2 million. Based on current growth patterns, Austin should be in the ballpark of 3.7 million and San Antonio, 3.4 million in 2040.

[N90]

I think what they meant is that Austin will officially pass San Antonio by 2040 since the census is only every 10 years, while it may pass SA by 2033-2035 according to the unofficial estimates.

It’s like how Houston actually passed Philly in 2011 but “officially” in 2020 when the actual census is conducted.

[ILUVSAT]

"Under 2020 estimates, the Austin MSA’s five-county coverage area currently has a population of 2.3 million, compared to 2.5 million in San Antonio’s eight-county metro area.
By 2040, however, those trends are expected to flip, with the Austin region pulling in 3.3 million residents while San Antonio will have just under 3.3 million people calling the region home."

This paragraph seems to sum it up...this is not about the "official" census. This is based on their estimates. They're pretty spot on regarding the current populations of the two. However, they say both will be around 3.3 million by 2040.

FWIW...I trust GB on this one. He, if I remember correctly, was off on his 2020 Austin metro numbers by less than 5,000. He's been tracking U.S. metro growth patterns for more than 30 years - or something like that.

[ATXboom]

Agree with boot... Austin metro passes SA in 10 years.

[Novacek]

https://austin.culturemap.com/news/c...orecast-shows/

"These numbers don’t account for the possibility that the federal government will add counties to the Austin metro area or San Antonio metro area based on updated U.S. Census Bureau head counts."

Over a multi-decade timeframe, IMO this will become important.

The TWDB estimates have us short by ~100k in 2030. Another county or two could really make a difference in that (e.g. Burnet is 50k today).

[Mopacs]

Originally Posted by Novacek

https://austin.culturemap.com/news/c...orecast-shows/

"These numbers don’t account for the possibility that the federal government will add counties to the Austin metro area or San Antonio metro area based on updated U.S. Census Bureau head counts."

Over a multi-decade timeframe, IMO this will become important.

The TWDB estimates have us short by ~100k in 2030. Another county or two could really make a difference in that (e.g. Burnet is 50k today).

Seems inevitable that Burnet county will join the Austin metro in some form in the near future. 1000's of homes are proposed for the Marble Falls area between the lake and 71. Also housing developments are creeping westward along 71 closer to the Spicewood and the Burnet County line (and even a sliver of Blanco county).

[Mopacs]

Originally Posted by Mopacs

Seems inevitable that Burnet county will join the Austin metro in some form in the near future. 1000's of homes are proposed for the Marble Falls area between the lake and 71. Also housing developments are creeping westward along 71 closer to the Spicewood and the Burnet County line (and even a sliver of Blanco county).

And even on the northern end along the Williamson county line between Liberty Hill and Bertram (highway 29). Liberty Hill is starting to explode now. Time will tell.

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by Mopacs

And even on the northern end along the Williamson county line between Liberty Hill and Bertram (highway 29). Liberty Hill is starting to explode now. Time will tell.

I was up in Liberty Hill not to long ago and the amount of new housing going in is insane. Like an endless sea of rooftops from Liberty Hill to Bertram and further out. I feel most certain that Burnet Co. will be added to the next Census.

[drummer]

I stumbled onto this a while back - focused on transportation, of course, but traffic counts show what we already know about the growth along 29 and 71. Somewhere else there is a plan showing a 281 bypass around Marble Falls and later extending it to north of Burnet as well.

https://www.burnetcountytexas.org/pa...ion%20Plan.pdf

It'll be interesting to see what population estimates show around 2025 for the CAMPO area.


Edit: Another thing to consider is the fact that 183 North also cuts into Burnet County on its way to Lampasas.

[paul78701]

Austin is a millennial magnet, with tens of thousands moving here last year:
https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/n...s-in-2021.html

Nearly 24,000 millennials — those born from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s — moved to Austin in 2021, according to SmartAsset.

That compared with the more than 13,400 that left, according to SmartAsset's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. That gave Austin positive net migration of about 10,500, No. 1 in the nation. The year prior, Austin ranked No. 4 in terms of net migration.

[Novacek]

I sort of missed this over the holiday, the Census released updated urbanized area numbers.

These are particularly interesting as they provide probably the truest measure of a city's growth removed from arbitrary political boundaries (city limits or county size/layout).

The census slightly changed how they measure things, so it's not exactly apples/apples with 2010's numbers. BUT they have Austin at 1.8M, up from 1.36M. So a 33% growth in that time.

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...ban-rural.html

As far as I can tell, no maps released yet. However they still have San Marcos, Bastrop and Manor listed separately, so they must have the Austin UA not quite reaching that far.

[freerover]

Originally Posted by Novacek

I sort of missed this over the holiday, the Census released updated urbanized area numbers.

These are particularly interesting as they provide probably the truest measure of a city's growth removed from arbitrary political boundaries (city limits or county size/layout).

The census slightly changed how they measure things, so it's not exactly apples/apples with 2010's numbers. BUT they have Austin at 1.8M, up from 1.36M. So a 33% growth in that time.

https://www.census.gov/programs-surv...ban-rural.html

As far as I can tell, no maps released yet. However they still have San Marcos, Bastrop and Manor listed separately, so they must have the Austin UA not quite reaching that far.

Do we have a new center of the population? I believe the 2010 center was around N. Lamar and 45th St.

EDIT:

Looks like they don't have center of population by urban area but they do have it by county. Harris County center of pop is Schoal Creek Blvd between 38th and 45th. I'm no smart person but I would guess that confirms what ppl suspect and that's a hispanic undercount on the east side. The city demo dude was positive we were over 1 million population but our official census count was under that. With all the building out east, it's hard to understand how the center of pop could be that far west when we aren't including Williamson county or burnet county.

[Novacek]

Originally Posted by freerover

Do we have a new center of the population? I believe the 2010 center was around N. Lamar and 45th St.

EDIT:

Looks like they don't have center of population by urban area but they do have it by county. Harris County center of pop is Schoal Creek Blvd between 38th and 45th. I'm no smart person but I would guess that confirms what ppl suspect and that's a hispanic undercount on the east side. The city demo dude was positive we were over 1 million population but our official census count was under that. With all the building out east, it's hard to understand how the center of pop could be that far west when we aren't including Williamson county or burnet county.

When you say "that far west" bear in mind that Shoal Creek Blvd is actually in the eastern half of Travis county (about 20 miles to the eastern county line, 25 miles to the west).

There's also been a huge build up along the NW 183 corridor(before even getting to williamson) that doesn't really have an equivalent to the NE. So there may have been some undercount in east Austin but I doubt it would have changed Travis's center of population. Its current position is consistent with the trends of prior censuses too.

[drummer]

^ Yeah, I was thinking it was more of a density thing. Lots of apartments on 183. That said, the growth in the east is crazy so it will certainly be interesting to see what the 2030 census looks like.

[freerover]

Originally Posted by drummer

^ Yeah, I was thinking it was more of a density thing. Lots of apartments on 183. That said, the growth in the east is crazy so it will certainly be interesting to see what the 2030 census looks like.

Yeah. Lots of apartments coming online along 183 East in the next few years. Plus Colony Park and whatever happens along 130.

[drummer]

Originally Posted by freerover

Yeah. Lots of apartments coming online along 183 East in the next few years. Plus Colony Park and whatever happens along 130.

The east side is going to go nuts along both 183 and especially 130. A lot of it may be single family developments, but you know they have to do a fair amount of multi-family to accommodate the sheer number of manufacturing workers (i.e., assembly workers) who they hope will fill the increasing number of existing and planned facilities for the area. That's on top of the growth in other industries in the area and the fact that, while housing prices are plateauing and even dropping a bit in some areas, it's still generally very, very expensive for folks to buy a first home with little to no equity.

[Novacek]

County Population estimates are out (July 2022)

Travis: 17,892 gain, only 1.4%
Williamson: 26,967 , 4.2%
Hays: 13,160 , 5.1%
Bastrop: 4,022 , 3.9%
Caldwell: 944 , 2%

so absent any changes to the metro area, it's looking at a gain of 62985 (2.9%)


They have domestic migration for Travis falling off a cliff. Only netting 2k for the year (compared to international migration netting 7k)


Edit/add: Burnet C is growing at 2.8%. Double Travis. Maybe we're seeing metro growth really start to reach into there.

[ATX2030]

New population estimates show which areas of Texas grew the most in 2022
by: Christopher Adams

Posted: Mar 30, 2023 / 06:00 AM CDT

Updated: Mar 30, 2023 / 07:51 AM CDT

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/new-...-most-in-2022/