5 Charts That Capture Miami Real Estate’s Slowdown

[DCReid]

As the pandemic emptied out many of America's cities, Miami was filling up.

Wealthy migrants flocked to South Florida's biggest city, attracted by its weather, looser public health restrictions and lower taxes. Miami's economy boomed — in February 2022, the Financial Times called it "The most important city in America."

Two years later, the narrative has shifted. The question is, can the city maintain its momentum?

https://www.bisnow.com/south-florida...n-story-123481

[mrnyc]

i shoulda bought up a few miami condos after bush’s 2008 economic meltdown when they were almost free.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by DCReid

As the pandemic emptied out many of America's cities, Miami was filling up.

Wealthy migrants flocked to South Florida's biggest city, attracted by its weather, looser public health restrictions and lower taxes. Miami's economy boomed — in February 2022, the Financial Times called it "The most important city in America."

Two years later, the narrative has shifted. The question is, can the city maintain its momentum?

https://www.bisnow.com/south-florida...n-story-123481

If the narrative shifted that quickly, the answer is NO. The hype is going down on social media as well.
2021-2022 was very different than the last year in half with the social media stuff. Partly was due to the crypto shit, but thats been over. And covid of course.

[Yuri]

The far-right hysteria in parts of South America cooled down a lot and that might explain the slowdown on real estate there.

Interestingly as the far-right needs to push a constant state of paranoia to keep their base engaged, the main exodus in Brazil was during Bolsonaro's far-right rule, not after. Politically, socially and economically, things are quite "boring" now in a good sense of the term. Strong growth and low inflation last year, this year GDP growth projection is constantly being revised up, unemployment declining continuously.

I have the impression Portugal was/is a bigger destination than Miami though. Orlando seems to be more popular than Miami as well.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I have the impression Portugal was/is a bigger destination than Miami though. Orlando seems to be more popular than Miami as well.

Portugal is a destination for right wing Brazilians? It seems like a pretty progressive country. Pre-pandemic there was some buzz from left leaning techies about moving to Portugal because of the low cost of living, high quality of life, and EU membership.

[iheartthed]

I have long been skeptical of Miami's staying power, but this sounds like Miami has just been affected by higher interest rates like everywhere else. They didn't offer evidence that Miami is deviating from a national real estate slowdown.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Portugal is a destination for right wing Brazilians? It seems like a pretty progressive country. Pre-pandemic there was some buzz from left leaning techies about moving to Portugal because of the low cost of living, high quality of life, and EU membership.

Lula won Bolsonaro there (Lula: 23,256 votes 64%; Bolsonaro: 13,081 votes 36%), but there are massive number of far-right wingers, specially middle-aged people there.

In fact, they even elected a Brazilian member of the Portuguese far-right party this month: https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/interna...trema-direita/ . There is a pic of the person... He's against Muslims, immigrants, and gay privileges...

[badrunner]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I have long been skeptical of Miami's staying power, but this sounds like Miami has just been affected by higher interest rates like everywhere else. They didn't offer evidence that Miami is deviating from a national real estate slowdown.

Not everywhere.

https://www.newsweek.com/california-...-surge-1883655

San Diego registered a more than 11 percent jump in home prices in January. The national index which covers the nine U.S. census divisions recorded a 6 percent increase in the month across the country compared to a year ago, the fastest annual jump in two years. Another California city that saw a significant spike in home prices was Los Angeles with an 8.6 percent jump.

...

Recent data suggests that elevated mortgage rates depressed activity in the housing market. In February, new home sales plunged on the back of high borrowing costs, according to analysts.

This dynamic was reflected as well in the data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index as monthly, prices declined in some cities.

"On a monthly basis, home prices continue to struggle in the face of elevated borrowing costs. Seventeen markets dropped over the last month, while Minneapolis has posted a 2.4% decline over the prior three months," according to Luke.

But San Diego and Los Angeles still remained expensive for homes. In January San Diego saw a nearly 2 percent increase from the prior month while Los Angeles ticked up by 0.1 percent. Washington also saw a jump of 0.5 percent monthly increase.

"Only Southern California and Washington D.C. have stood up the rising wave of interest rates and deliver positive returns to start the year," Luke said.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by badrunner

Not everywhere.

https://www.newsweek.com/california-...-surge-1883655

Miami's prices are stable now. The article's point was that sale volume has fallen dramatically. The San Diego article only talks about price, not volume.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Miami's prices are stable now. The article's point was that sale volume has fallen dramatically. The San Diego article only talks about price, not volume.

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-hou...rouble-1874962

Said it slid 2.5 percent. March 2024 article.

Miami is also the 2nd most rent burdened metro in america.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by LA21st

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-hou...rouble-1874962

Said it slid 2.5 percent. March 2024 article.

Miami is also the most rent burdened metro in america.

I imagine Miami builds more than California, right? That might explain the price variation.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I imagine Miami builds more than California, right? That might explain the price variation.

Maybe they shouldnt over build. Gonna bite them in the ass sooner or later, if not already.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by LA21st

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-hou...rouble-1874962

Said it slid 2.5 percent. March 2024 article.

Miami is also the 2nd most rent burdened metro in america.

But Miami sales prices are up nearly 100% since 2019.

[3rd&Brown]

The story in Miami is the same as it always was.

Incomes don't support prices, in homes or rentals. There can be a divergence from the norm and stepwise increases but at some point it's unsustainable. Add the on going insurance crisis in Florida and the correction is inevitable.

Despite what social media tells you, there are not that many rich people. Prices in Miami will come down. And yes, I do love it there and I do wish I had the foresight to buy a condo in Brickell when prices crashed in 2008-2012. I mean I remember 1 bedrooms in new buildings for under $100K. That seems insane in retrospect.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Maybe they shouldnt over build. Gonna bite them in the ass sooner or later, if not already.

I don’t care much about overbuilding. Housing should be treated as an utility not as investments. Underbuilding that’s a very serious problem.

This year São Paulo (city proper) will deliver 150,000 apartment units, most of them small and acquired by investors. It’s definitely too much but it will certainly keep rents in check. For the investors won’t be good, but that’s their problem.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I don’t care much about overbuilding. Housing should be treated as an utility not as investments. Underbuilding that’s a very serious problem.

This year São Paulo (city proper) will deliver 150,000 apartment units, most of them small and acquired by investors. It’s definitely too much but it will certainly keep rents in check. For the investors won’t be good, but that’s their problem.

But its not keeping rents in check. So there's obviously a problem or disconnect.

[Altoic]

Originally Posted by LA21st

But its not keeping rents in check. So there's obviously a problem or disconnect.

The fact that prices are still extremely high according to the graphs means we should build even more!

Luckily this month Miami had multiple groundbreaking :

Cipriani Residences (80 floors, 397 condos) *Broke ground on Feb 26th but it's close enough
2600 Biscayne (41 floors, 399 rental units)
600 MWC (32 floors, 579 condos)
Domus Brickell Park (12 floors, 172 condo units)
2200 Brickell (5 floors, 105 condos)

Next month JEM Residences is breaking ground on April 3rd with 789 units and 67 floors!

I'd rather have a supply glut than a market crash.

[LA21st]

Yet many seem to think its heading for a crash. The jobs arent there to support it.

The prices aren't extremely high. For Florida maybe.

Didnt this happen in 08? Miami overbuilt prior and it crashed?

[Altoic]

I believe the situation was too much demand at the time due to unnecessary lending. Construction ramped up in 04-08 to try to meet the demand until the market crashed all across the U.S.

Ever since, Miami's market has further matured and has fared well in minor/large downturns. This fall in the sales volume and the beginnings to rents falling is seen as just aligning itself to be more like the rest of American cities.

We may see a drastic market correction but nothing in relation to a crash, at least from my point of view.

The demand (Or what it looks to be) still seems to be there for large developments at least. There has been a historic amount of groundbreakings so far this year, defying many expectations.

[LA21st]

We"ll see.
As someone else said, its not sustainable with that job market.

There's a bunch of other articles and social media real estate experts predicting the same thing.