California High Speed Rail Thread

[Busy Bee]

I think the CHSRA knows full well the IOS will function as a demonstration line that will create awe and enthuse the pols to get the rest of the system built. I highly doubt they're planning on touting the robust ridership as evidence that will convince them to get going on the mountain crossings. They aren't myopic. I fully expect the true function of the IOS is public enthusiasm to finish Phase 1.

[Crawford]

I hope you're right. I'll make a point to ride Phase I, but I'm a rail buff.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The first TGV line in France was Paris to Lyon. Biggest city to second biggest city. Most transit-oriented city to second most transit oriented city. TGV is the global HSR gold standard.

I would've assumed the HSR gold standard would be Japan's shinkansen.

Incidentally, that first leg was Tokyo-Nagoya-Osaka.

[tech12]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Hostile as in unlikely to provide ridership.

The CV has some of the lowest transit ridership and highest vehicle ownership in the U.S., which is saying something. It's extremely sprawly, with extremely weak urban cores. Very little walkability, bikeability, or transit orientation. Very little downtown-to-downtown modal demand. So all of the necessary ingredients for HSR are missing.

The portion of the Central Valley that'll be served by HSR has over 6 million people, and is already served by one of the busiest Amtrak routes in the US (the San Joaquins, which goes from Bakersfield to Oakland, and stops at every Central Valley city in between them). Two of the metros it'll serve have existing commuter rail lines to the Bay Area (ACE in Stockton and Capitol Corridor in Sacramento), and there is bus service throughout the central valley. Sacramento even has a light rail system. So the central valley already has better public transit than a significant portion of the country. You can easily find more sprawled, less densely populated, less walkable cities in America, that have worse transit, and smaller regional populations. The central valley is not a terrible place for HSR, especially considering that the system it's getting will serve not just it, but every major population center in CA.

Also, the goal of the project is not just to improve transit, but to revitalize the central valley cities. The idea is that once the system is complete, the areas around the stations in Fresno, Bakersfield, Merced, etc, will see lots of development.

[TWAK]

Plus the CV is like the only place to build it lol and it's only so wide.
Think of the cost of having HSR along the coast....

[tech12]

Originally Posted by TWAK

Plus the CV is like the only place to build it lol and it's only so wide.
Think of the cost of having HSR along the coast....

Not to mention that the Central Coast only has like 20% of the population of the San Joaquin valley/Sacramento area.

But yeah, I think some people forget that the coast ranges are a thing lol

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by tech12

The portion of the Central Valley that'll be served by HSR has over 6 million people.

Population is irrelevant. US has 330 million, Switzerland has 9 million. Guess which has vastly better conditions for HSR?

Originally Posted by tech12

and is already served by one of the busiest Amtrak routes in the US (the San Joaquins, which goes from Bakersfield to Oakland, and stops at every Central Valley city in between them).

There's one Amtrak line that has real ridership. So "one of the busiest Amtrak routes" is a meaningless statement. It's saying there's more than one train a day. Also, Phase I isn't serving Oakland, so who cares? If it did, it would make sense.

Originally Posted by tech12

Two of the metros it'll serve have existing commuter rail lines to the Bay Area (ACE in Stockton and Capitol Corridor in Sacramento),

Nope, neither city is served in Phase I.

Originally Posted by tech12

and there is bus service throughout the central valley.

There's bus service in every podunk metro. Who cares?

Originally Posted by tech12

Sacramento even has a light rail system.

Ok, but irrelevent. No Sacramento service.

Originally Posted by tech12

So the central valley already has better public transit than a significant portion of the country.

No, it has terrible public transit, and extremely high auto share, and extremely weak cores, and extremely low walkability and bikeability and very low incomes and minimal corporate base and agricultural economic base and few professional jobs. It has nothing you need for HSR. There's nothing that works in Paris-Brussels that would work in Tulare-Bakersfield. Phase I won't deliver much ridership, and I bet you everyone leading CAHSR knows it.

Originally Posted by tech12

Also, the goal of the project is not just to improve transit, but to revitalize the central valley cities.

Ding, ding ding. We have a winner.

This is why Phase I is so crazy. They're basically doing it first bc CV is poor and Hispanic, so they can brag about equity, economic justice and the like. Is it a transit project, an economic development project, a reparations project? You see it in the promotional language.

If, once CAHSR were running, they wanted to throw the CV a bone and put a station there, fine. It would be a waste of money and time, but it wouldn't threaten HSR in the U.S. But putting it first is extremely risky for U.S. HSR. It's a dream scenario for the anti-transit GQP.

[TWAK]

They have to build it in the CV (40 to 60 miles wide), so might as well hit the population centers and these people do use the trains already there to get to SF, Sac, and LA. They might not be connected to HSR, but they are connected to regular rail.
When the initial project finishes, people from these areas will use it and people outside of these areas will also use it.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by Crawford

If, once CAHSR were running, they wanted to throw the CV a bone and put a station there, fine. It would be a waste of money and time, but it wouldn't threaten HSR in the U.S. But putting it first is extremely risky for U.S. HSR. It's a dream scenario for the anti-transit GQP.

You greatly overstate what California's nascent high speed rail system means to the U.S. as a whole. The vast majority of the nation was never going to have high speed rail regardless of California's experience. And if there was a viable high speed rail system in some other state that was certain to get built but for California's laggardly construction timetable and budget overruns, then name it. California is the only state trying to build high speed rail today only because other states are not trying at all.

[LAsam]

Originally Posted by Crawford

This is why Phase I is so crazy. They're basically doing it first bc CV is poor and Hispanic, so they can brag about equity, economic justice and the like. Is it a transit project, an economic development project, a reparations project? You see it in the promotional language.

As believable as this sounds for CA, I'm not sure it's accurate... or at least it's not the primary reason for Phase I to be in the CV. From my viewpoint, Phase I is located where it is because it's the low hanging fruit of the CAHSR system and allows for tangible results to be shown as soon as possible. The hope being that we get the CV segment up and it motivates everyone to keep pushing on the project so we can connect the major metro areas. Had we started with the most challenging parts of the CAHSR system, those being the segments connecting the major metros to the CV, the cost and time may have killed the will to complete the system as a whole.

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Crawford

There's one Amtrak line that has real ridership. So "one of the busiest Amtrak routes" is a meaningless statement. It's saying there's more than one train a day. Also, Phase I isn't serving Oakland, so who cares? If it did, it would make sense.

I agree that the ridership is objectively not great, but the San Joaquins actually doesn't get much of its ridership from the Bay Area or Sacramento. You could cut off both of the branches after Stockton and it wouldn't lose much. The top city pairs along the route mostly start and end in the same Central Valley cities you're doubting. Sort of counter-intuitive.

https://web.archive.org/web/20201112...es/3477/39.pdf
This is the 2019 data, so no Covid effects...

[hughfb3]

Originally Posted by craigs

You greatly overstate what California's nascent high speed rail system means to the U.S. as a whole. The vast majority of the nation was never going to have high speed rail regardless of California's experience. And if there was a viable high speed rail system in some other state that was certain to get built but for California's laggardly construction timetable and budget overruns, then name it. California is the only state trying to build high speed rail today only because other states are not trying at all.

To add to this, I would also argue that the only reason Brightline West is going to be a true High Speed Electrified Rail is BECAUSE California is already building a High speed rail to tie into... unlike the stand-alone Florida High-er speed diesel Brightline rail

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by hughfb3

To add to this, I would also argue that the only reason Brightline West is going to be a true High Speed Electrified Rail is BECAUSE California is already building a High speed rail to tie into... unlike the stand-alone Florida High-er speed diesel Brightline rail

It needs to be electric to travel through the planned Burbank-Palmdale tunnel or tunnels, aside from the fact that electric passenger trains have much better performance characteristics aside from a higher potential maximum speed.

The Brightline Florida tracks can't be Class 9 (like CAHSR and Las Vegas) without full grade separation. That's not possible without building an almost continuous 70-mile viaduct from Miami north to Palm Beach.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

It needs to be electric to travel through the planned Burbank-Palmdale tunnel or tunnels, aside from the fact that electric passenger trains have much better performance characteristics aside from a higher potential maximum speed.

The Brightline Florida tracks can't be Class 9 (like CAHSR and Las Vegas) without full grade separation. That's not possible without building an almost continuous 70-mile viaduct from Miami north to Palm Beach.

yes, but the part along 528 out to Orlando could have been pretty easily.

As it is, isn't most of the streetch between Miami and Palm Beach limited to 79mph anyway? It's not even a particularly fast train along there at all. It's big speeds are heading east to Orlando and even those are relatively limited.

[mattropolis]

The High Speed Rail construction website has been recently updated .
https://buildhsr.com/

The interactive map now shows which sites have been completed, and which are still under construction.

Overall it seems to be an improvement. Hope they can keep it updated!

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

It needs to be electric to travel through the planned Burbank-Palmdale tunnel or tunnels, aside from the fact that electric passenger trains have much better performance characteristics aside from a higher potential maximum speed.

The Brightline Florida tracks can't be Class 9 (like CAHSR and Las Vegas) without full grade separation. That's not possible without building an almost continuous 70-mile viaduct from Miami north to Palm Beach.

Speaking about that, CalTrain electrification can also count for CAHSR construction since the trains will be using the line.
Not just in the CV...

Originally Posted by mattropolis

The High Speed Rail construction website has been recently updated .
https://buildhsr.com/

The interactive map now shows which sites have been completed, and which are still under construction.

Overall it seems to be an improvement. Hope they can keep it updated!

What's up with phase 2 out in So Cal? They haven't decided on a route yet?

[markb1]

Originally Posted by TWAK

What's up with phase 2 out in So Cal? They haven't decided on a route yet?

Correct. They are expending zero effort phase 2 at this point. Their hands are full with phase 1, which is Anaheim to SF.

[MAC123]

I mean why would they? I don't wanna be pessimistic as I love this project, but they don't even have the money for phase 1.

[markb1]

Yeah, it will absolutely be a Big F-ing Deal when phase 1 is complete! They don't need any phase 2 burdens to slow it down.

[AndrewK]

Originally Posted by mattropolis

The High Speed Rail construction website has been recently updated .
https://buildhsr.com/

The interactive map now shows which sites have been completed, and which are still under construction.

Overall it seems to be an improvement. Hope they can keep it updated!

And not all of those look to be up to date either. For example, the Avenue 12 Grade Separation (which is listed as “active”) was described as “almost complete” as of December 2020, and the uploaded photos from April 2022 show it finished.