What-ifs stir fantasy election
Gordon Sinclair Sr. | Winnipeg Free Press
Updated: August 19 at 07:25 AM CDT
What if Glen Murray ran for mayor against Sam Katz?
That's what people on the street kept asking Probe Research president Scott MacKay and the other political junkies at the Winnipeg-based polling company.
What if Murray took on Katz in a kind of comeback title bout, featuring the former mayor as the challenger and the current mayor as the reigning champ.
I suspect that "what-if" question Probe has been hearing on the street has its origins in a sense of nostalgia that's fuelled by a fear of the future.
Winnipeg, many believe, is a city without a vision and out of touch with the times. Murray, whatever his faults, was a mayor with vision who was ahead of the times.
But Murray lives and works in Toronto now. He's president and CEO of the non-profit Canadian Urban Institute, which -- according to its website -- is "dedicated to enhancing the quality of life of urban areas across Canada and internationally."
And, so far as I know, the 50-year-old former champ has no plans of coming back to Winnipeg, never mind coming back to make a political comeback.
But there was another "what-if" question the political junkies at Probe kept hearing.
What if Sam Katz didn't run again?
I know these are fantasy what-ifs, but really, there's about as much chance of Katz not running as there is of Murray running. Although, believe it or not, there have been recent rumours about Murray's return to the city.
For Katz, the power and the paycheque are an irresistible combo. Coupled with the fact that, with the next civic election just over two years away, there is no clear or credible contender on the horizon. Anyway, it's fun to fantasize.
Which brings us to the other "what-if" question.
What if Katz didn't run for a third time? Who would be the likely contenders and who would be the favourite?
To answer that question, Probe chose St. Vital Coun. Gord Steeves to run against a former mayoral candidate, St. Boniface Coun. Dan Vandal.
Then they asked 600 Winnipeggers both "what-if" questions.
The results were intriguing.
In the Vandal-Steeves scenario, Vandal came out a decisive winner among decided voters, 32 per cent to 23 per cent, finishing ahead in all sections of the city except his hypothetical opponent's home turf of St. Vital.
The more interesting result, of course, was the hypothetical title fight between current mayor Katz and former mayor Murray.
It ended in a no-decision.
Katz and Murray each amassed 40 per cent of the decided "vote."
If you're in Murray's corner, that's a win.
After all, the guy's been gone for four years. Out-of-sight and largely out-of-mind. And Murray is still able to got-toe-to-toe without even campaigning.
For the record, Probe added some interesting detail and analysis to the polling results.
Murray's base comes from women and people who have graduated from university, while Katz counts more on men, voters with "some" post-secondary education, and families with young children.
There's another even more revealing but hardly surprising indicator of support. Most of Katz's backing also comes from people who vote for the Conservatives, both federally and provincially, while much of Murray's support comes from federal Liberal and provincial NDP voters.
But Probe president MacKay told me that what's curious is that Katz, the Tuxedo Tory, also appears to have the support of blue-collar workers.
Many of whom, I'm guessing, still see him as Mr. Field of Dreams.
Apparently his blue-collar supporters haven't woken up to who he is as mayor.
Which is one reason we need to bring party politics out of the closet at city hall.
At least that would officially stamp Katz as a civic Conservative in a city that votes NDP provincially.
And official party politics would be pressure on the NDP to at least field a candidate against a mayor who ran uncontested last time.
What the Probe poll result also suggests, though, is something even more important to Winnipeg.
Sam Katz can be beaten by a strong and credible candidate.
The question is who?
gordon.sinclair@freepress.mb.ca
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