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  #41  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2020, 3:33 PM
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Yuri Yuri is offline
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Based on the figures posted above, half of Canadian population increase is happening inside GGH (about 360k and 180k, respectively). As Canadian natural growth (births minus deaths) keeps sinking like a stone, 125k in 2014 to 85k in 2019, set to disappear by early 2030's, and then go into negative terrain, only increasing immigration will keep things afloat.

GGH will be under the same dinamics affecting Canada overall but it might face more competition from other metro areas. It's challenging to keep the current dominance indefinitely (half of country's population increase for less than a 1/3 of population).
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  #42  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2020, 5:49 PM
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The reason the GTA dominates so much is that it acts as the country's "gateway" in that most immigrants move to the GTA before going to other parts of the country.

If you look at internal migration statistics, Toronto actually exports more people to the rest of the country than it imports. It's growth is entirely (and then some) driven by immigration. Falling natural growth levels impacts the rest of the province / country, as they are more reliant on it for population growth than the GTA.

You can see this with the Liberals increased immigration rates over the last few years as well. Toronto's growth rate has increased almost in step with the increases in immigration.

People move to Canada, start in Toronto to get their footing with education, work experience, etc., then hit the road and move out to either another province or into southwestern Ontario / Ottawa, fleeing high cost of living. A lot do stay too, especially if they can find success and build a quality life in the city.

Toronto is building about 50,000 housing units a year. I think it's actually supposed to pass 70,000 this year, at least it was pre-covid. As long as that continues, people should be able to continue to move to the city.

As long as immigration continues, Toronto's growth should too. Will it hit 15 million in 2051? who knows. But 30 years ago, The golden horseshoe had a population of about 6.5 million, compared to about 10 million today. Even just extrapolating that gets it to 14 million in 2051..
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  #43  
Old Posted Jul 17, 2020, 5:08 PM
yaletown_fella yaletown_fella is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Town houses and single family homes are even less affordable. Renting an apartment isn't cheaper either so some will leave the GTA altogether.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm
Actually it depends on the type of townhome.

Condo townhomes that are given access to condo tower amenities are egregiously pricey fo sure, but I guarantee you freehold townhomes and single family homes are cheaper provided you are cutting the grass, landscaping, snow shovelling etc yourself.
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  #44  
Old Posted Jul 25, 2022, 2:14 PM
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The City of Toronto City Council just had its last regularly scheduled meeting of this term, due to elections in the fall.

Between the normal pressure of consolidating the business of 3 or so meetings into 1; and a change in planning regulations that meant added pressure to get some things approved.......

Well, I thought this worth reporting:

25,000 housing units approved at the meeting (Zoning Approval)

(based on type/size of units) - enough to house 46,000 people.

12 new parks

121M in Community benefits

Across 142 different projects.

Along with 7.5M ft 2 of non-residential space (largely employment/commercial)
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  #45  
Old Posted Jul 25, 2022, 3:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Light View Post
The City of Toronto City Council just had its last regularly scheduled meeting of this term, due to elections in the fall.

Between the normal pressure of consolidating the business of 3 or so meetings into 1; and a change in planning regulations that meant added pressure to get some things approved.......

Well, I thought this worth reporting:

25,000 housing units approved at the meeting (Zoning Approval)

(based on type/size of units) - enough to house 46,000 people.

12 new parks

121M in Community benefits

Across 142 different projects.

Along with 7.5M ft 2 of non-residential space (largely employment/commercial)
good new about more housing, Vancouver also recently approved a record amount of housing last year.

regarding population growth Toronto CMA received 142,775 new immigrants last year. I believe this is the largest amount ever and highest in North America.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kora View Post
Immigration by metro area (CMA and MSA), 2021, top 10

Toronto: 142,775
New York: 101,708
Vancouver: 53,925
Los Angeles: 50,960
Miami: 49,288
Montreal: 40,360
Washington: 27,636
Houston: 26,146
Dallas: 25,710
San Francisco: 24,670

US Lawful Permanent Residents: 2021 (US Dept of Homeland Security)
https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fi...s_fy2021_0.pdf

Permanent Residents – Monthly IRCC Updates - Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory and Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) of Intended Destination (Open Data, Government of Canada)
https://open.canada.ca/
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  #46  
Old Posted Jul 25, 2022, 4:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
But it has enriched a lot of Canadian households. We have family friends in very modest area of Etiobicoke, and they're sitting on a goldmine. That's their retirement and inheritance money. The old folks cash out and move elsewhere in Ontario, and maybe get a Florida condo.
Exactly, which is why most Canadian voters wouldn’t want our government to do anything to limit the inbound flow of money getting here for laundering.

I personally made at least several millions of dollars off international money laundering, while not doing anything illegal myself. Best of both worlds. It’s not an uncommon story at all. Which is why things aren’t changing. (Politicians who promise to make most voters poorer don’t get elected.)
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  #47  
Old Posted Jul 25, 2022, 4:27 PM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by Northern Light View Post
Of course nothing guaranteed.

That said, the growth projections made by the province over the last decade have been largely accurate.

The province works with the federal government in determining immigration levels.


So, in the near-term (Covid aside) the numbers are likely to be fairly accurate.

Certainly when one gets beyond a 10-year horizon the picture is less clear; and the composition of immigrants is likely to change.

But the numbers while uncertain have some measure of credibility and are what is being planned for here.
Good point. While everyone surely agrees that cities population projections usually are worthless, at the country level things are much more predictable whenever growth is from immigration (which is our case).

In other words, with many billions of people interested in moving to richer countries if allowed, we could have a Canada of 50 or 60 million in 2050 if we wanted, guaranteed. However, what’s not guaranteed is that 15 million of those would accept to live in Toronto (or any given place).
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  #48  
Old Posted Jul 25, 2022, 5:05 PM
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Nouvellecosse Nouvellecosse is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Exactly, which is why most Canadian voters wouldn’t want our government to do anything to limit the inbound flow of money getting here for laundering.

I personally made at least several millions of dollars off international money laundering, while not doing anything illegal myself. Best of both worlds. It’s not an uncommon story at all. Which is why things aren’t changing. (Politicians who promise to make most voters poorer don’t get elected.)
Yeah, given that the home ownership rate is over 65% it isn't surprising that the majority of people aren't that worried about rising home prices. Perhaps things will change when and if the high prices force that percentage down. Until then, the only policies that governments seem to be interested in are on the demand side including loan assistance and tax incentives to allow people to spend more since that enables some people to tackle the high prices. However, that still represents a wealth transfer from new or younger residents to those older and more established which just makes the problem worse in the long term.
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