Lamenting the decline of the car

[theman23]

In about 10 years there's going to be a discussion on SSP about how hip protectors are really the most sensible form of undergarment.

[homebucket]

With record-high car prices, dealer markups, more expensive financing, and inventory shortages the automobile industry is set for dark times. We discuss the problems today, and for future generations of car buyers.

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[whatnext]

Originally Posted by homebucket

With record-high car prices, dealer markups, more expensive financing, and inventory shortages the automobile industry is set for dark times. We discuss the problems today, and for future generations of car buyers.

It really just amazes me the industry let it become so dependent on outside, often overseas, chip makers.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It really just amazes me the industry let it become so dependent on outside, often overseas, chip makers.

Why is that surprising? They never thought of silicon as important. And they usually bought older chips. The problem for them with EVs, is they processing power is now important. So using the latest chips is actually important. They're now adjusting to the new reality.

[esquire]

Is now a bad time to buy? My main vehicle is approaching 10 years of age and I'd normally be thinking about replacing it soon, but with the tight market that I keep hearing about, I thought I'd wait a little longer and see if the supply/demand curve gets back to normal.

I figure that doing it this way gives me a couple extra years of usage from a still-reliable vehicle that was paid for long ago, and it's possible that prices may come down at some point in the not too distant future.

[Truenorth00]

^ I'm the same boat. I'm waiting. I think at least another 1-2 years. Dealers still aren't nearly desperate enough.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by esquire

Is now a bad time to buy? My main vehicle is approaching 10 years of age and I'd normally be thinking about replacing it soon, but with the tight market that I keep hearing about, I thought I'd wait a little longer and see if the supply/demand curve gets back to normal.

I figure that doing it this way gives me a couple extra years of usage from a still-reliable vehicle that was paid for long ago, and it's possible that prices may come down at some point in the not too distant future.

I'm not sure where your reliability/need index is.

If there is a second vehicle, or you can risk the potential downtime, I'd wait. Save the cash. A paid-for car with a reliable drivetrain could probably make 15 years pretty easily.

Now, if this is a primary vehicle/one vehicle household, yeah, maybe I start thinking about it because the day something big goes will be a bad one and the dealer will have you over a barrel.

A couple of years should allow things to normalize. Demand should taper off with higher interest rates and increased supply should make deals more available.

The most terrible part for right now is that pretty good 1-3 year old used vehicles are in short supply; the sweet spot where one loses much of the sting of depreciation, but the vehicle basically has a full service life ahead of it.

If you have to buy now, stay away from the CUV/SUV hot part of the market, and find a sedan. Stick-shift would be even better, if you don't mind that. Dealers will probably be more likely to cut a deal there, as they're slow selling relative to SUVs.

[thewave46]

Anyone else see the new 2023 Toyota GR Corolla? Uh, wow.

300 horsepower from 3 cylinders. 6-speed. Hatchback.

I have to give Toyota props for going back to enthusiast mode in the last decade.

Toyota 86
Toyota Supra
Toyota GR Yaris (for overseas, alas)
Toyota GR Corolla

I suppose the last gasp of the internal combustion engine won't be boring. Kind of a late '60s mania going on right now.

[Truenorth00]

C$45k starting is going back to enthusiasts?

Who are their enthusiasts?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

C$45k starting is going back to enthusiasts?

Who are their enthusiasts?

People with money, obviously.

I mean, a base Civic is $25k now, so the days of screaming deals are long dead.

They are going to only make a limited number too, so there's that. To me, this competes with the Honda Civic Type R, the Subaru WRX, et al.

The Subaru is probably the best deal, but the fact that Toyota is even bothering kind of warms my heart.

[kool maudit]

I was going to switch cars in March-April '23, now I have decided to wait until summer '24.

The used market seems to be rolling over, particularly in Germany, which sets the tone for Europe.

[Innsertnamehere]

The Civic R is $50k CAD now.

[WarrenC12]

There will be smoking deals on used cars in 2023 if anybody is looking to upgrade.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

There will be smoking deals on used cars in 2023 if anybody is looking to upgrade.

What makes you say that?

The used car market (i.e. 1-4 years old) got a hole blown in it, as 2 years of model production was lost during that period (2020/2021). With the big jumps in new vehicle prices and higher interest rates on loans for the foreseeable future, the demand for something a bit cheaper (i.e. used) is going to rise, no?

Maybe if new sales slow enough, discounts enter the picture again as production exceeds demand.

[Jaws]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

The Civic R is $50k CAD now.

Good luck finding one for that price. And if you do you'll need to pay $2k for the leather protection package and $3k for tire and wheel insurance. Plus the $2k doc fee, of course.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I have to give Toyota props for going back to enthusiast mode in the last decade.

I wonder if there are also overpriced enthusiast lawnmowers available?

Does all the same things as a regular lawnmower, but with more roar!

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by thewave46

What makes you say that?

The used car market (i.e. 1-4 years old) got a hole blown in it, as 2 years of model production was lost during that period (2020/2021). With the big jumps in new vehicle prices and higher interest rates on loans for the foreseeable future, the demand for something a bit cheaper (i.e. used) is going to rise, no?

Maybe if new sales slow enough, discounts enter the picture again as production exceeds demand.

People not being able to afford the new cars they've bought over the past few years.

[Truenorth00]

Used car prices are down ~15% from peak. Still another 20-25% to get down to pre-Covid norms. But I expect we'll get there over the next 12-24 months.



Source article: https://www.axios.com/2022/11/08/use...rices-dropping

[esquire]

^ Thank you, that is helpful. Wow, what a jump in prices over the last couple years... it's amazing when you see it quantified that way.

[Me&You]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Used car prices are down ~15% from peak. Still another 20-25% to get down to pre-Covid norms. But I expect we'll get there over the next 12-24 months.



Source article: https://www.axios.com/2022/11/08/use...rices-dropping

Which can make for an advantageous time to trade out of a still-inflated used car in favour of a more-readily-available new car. Lots of manufacturers are expected to raise MSRPs for the MY23/24/25 lineups.