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Originally Posted by SAN Man
What are your thoughts on the $160 billion transportation plan?
My initial thoughts are that we won't get much at the end of the day. Like with everything else, most projects were probably greatly underestimated, also funding is on shaky grounds. Another thing, why would they make transit free in ten years? Isn't collecting some fares good for at least some things?
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100% agreed. Free transit for all is bad. MTS annual operating budget is $300 million; one-third of that comes from fare revenue. With all these new expansions and service upgrades, say MTS annual operating budget rises to $500 million, with $150 mil coming from fares. That's $1.7 billion/decade coming from fares that you'll throw out the window with free transit for all. Voters might approve of one half cent sales tax increase, but not three increases within a decade. If you make transit free, you'll be forced to cut down on service and cancel expansions. Even Portland eliminated their fareless square, likely because it drove up homelessness on their transit. World class subways, like Hong Kong, Singapore--they have 100% or better farebox recovery ratios, meaning no taxpayer subsidies are needed for operations.
On the rail transit portion, I'd cut out several things:
1. $2 billion+ central mobility hub. Renderings show palatial architecture and it's designed to accommodate the highly speculative CAHSR. Haven't we learned from the Transbay Transit Center that building a flashy new train hub for a train that is decades away (if ever) from being built is a huge gamble?
2. The segment of Commuter rail 581 from SDSU to El Cajon should not be built. El Cajon and Santee are especially NIMBY and car-centric. If they don't want rail, don't give them rail. They won't ride it anyways. Appendix A, page A-40 says Commuter rail 581 will cost $9.774 billion. Cutting 581 short at SDSU will probably save $2-3 billion.
3. Tram 555 (Balboa Park ring tram), p. A-19: Will cost $1.175 billion. Streetcars share lanes with traffic and are thus no faster than buses. Maybe even slower, because at least buses can switch lanes, while streetcars can't. Get some articulated buses if you want a circulator transit line. Also, how much demand is there really for a ring tram around Balboa Park?
4. Commuter rail 583, p. A-14: Will cost $7.581 billion. Goes from National City to NAVWAR and largely duplicates existing blue line. We could convert the segment from 12th/Imperial to Santa Fe Depot to a tunnel for around $2 billion--we already have the right of way. Green line trains would stop at Seaport, Gaslamp, Convention Center while Blue Line stations would be go nonstop from Santa Fe to 12th/Imperial. Would save 10-15 minutes travel time.