One Mile Radius Residential Populations for Major Downtowns

[dc_denizen]

Should be closest 3.14 square miles from the downtown ; a circle if there are no rivers / lakes / other and a half circle or whatever other shape otherwise

[mhays]

Here the requests I'm seeing. Let me know if I missed any.

1100 Congress Avenue for Austin: 25,009

Phoenix I-17 between Camelback Rd and Indian School Rd: 4496 N Black Canyon Fwy: 36,742

914 Coney Island Avenue in Brooklyn:

Elmhurst, Queens - 42-51 Hampton Street: 42-37 Hampton St (best available): 236,527

Concourse, Bronx - 2326 Grand Concourse: 2337 Grand Concourse: 243,177

Philly: 1000 S. Broad St.: 117,219

Philly: 1700 N. Broad St.: 85,470

[mhays]

PS, CoStar's 2022 estimates are from Neustar, based on a combo of Census counts, Census estimates, and an address database that's updated quarterly to delineate new occupied units. Everything is apportioned to census block groups.

That still leaves questions of course, like how they figure people per occupied unit and whether/how they divide block groups. But it narrows it down...it's a real attempt at 2022 reality.

[pdxtex]

Impressive Seattle. And thats basically only 3 neighborhoods, Capital Hill, South Lake Union and Belltown. Seattle wears many hats. Its American Toronto, mini Chicago, pine tree San Francisco or salt water Minneapolis.

[PHX31]

Originally Posted by mhays

Here the requests I'm seeing. Let me know if I missed any.

Phoenix I-17 between Camelback Rd and Indian School Rd: 4496 N Black Canyon Fwy: 36,742

Interesting.. thanks for the update. I wasn't sure about that one or 36th St and Indian School. Could you try 3600 E Indian School Rd? I think that I-17 area comprises one of the densest census tracts, but the 1 mi radius may be bigger than the tract and could bring the potential down. I'm not really sure. But it's interesting information.

[mhays]

3602 E Indian School Rd is 23,841

[BnaBreaker]

Can I put a request in for 1201 Demonbreun St. Nashville, TN?

[mhays]

1201 Demonbreun St. Nashville, TN: 22,918

I might not get to more of these for a day or two.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Someday let's hope the US will drop those unscientific units of measurement.

Never!

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

Here the requests I'm seeing. Let me know if I missed any.

1100 Congress Avenue for Austin: 25,009

Phoenix I-17 between Camelback Rd and Indian School Rd: 4496 N Black Canyon Fwy: 36,742

914 Coney Island Avenue in Brooklyn:

Elmhurst, Queens - 42-51 Hampton Street: 42-37 Hampton St (best available): 236,527

Concourse, Bronx - 2326 Grand Concourse: 2337 Grand Concourse: 243,177

Philly: 1000 S. Broad St.: 117,219

Philly: 1700 N. Broad St.: 85,470

Looks like the number for Coney Island Avenue wasn't captured in the post.

[mhays]

Oops... 914 Coney Island Avenue in Brooklyn: 176,015

[Crawford]

Thanks for all this work, mhays.

Assuming the Costar data is reliable, it appears that Bronx and Queens have higher peak residential densities than Brooklyn. Probably makes sense.

[mhays]

Thanks. It's fun to do.

Iirc, the highest tracts are mostly in Manhattan. But a mile radius will always include water, a big park, or an office district.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Thanks for all this work, mhays.

Assuming the Costar data is reliable, it appears that Bronx and Queens have higher peak residential densities than Brooklyn. Probably makes sense.

Peak within a 1-mile radius, yeah. I think I'm surprised that Queens has a higher peak than Brooklyn, but not surprised at the Bronx. On one of the weighted density threads, I thought the number calculated for Brooklyn was substantially higher than Queens.

[Crawford]

Yeah, Bronx is no surprise. Bronx has the highest structural density in U.S. outside of Manhattan.

Queens, overall, is obviously much less dense than Brooklyn, but has very high density peaks in the western half of the borough.

[TempleGuy1000]

Originally Posted by mhays

Philly: 1000 S. Broad St.: 117,219

Philly: 1700 N. Broad St.: 85,470

very interesting, thank you! 1000 S Broad is generally consider the southern edge of the 'greater downtown area'. I probably should have asked for 500 N. Broad as that is the equivalent edge on the north side, but 1700 is in the middle of Temple's campus. I wonder if it is taking into account college students. Seeing Broad and Washington at 117,000, makes me think there are areas of lower Northeast Philadelphia that probably match that given the census tracts go back up to 30k ppsqm around there.

[Klippenstein]

Originally Posted by mhays

--Chicago (River North), 222 W Erie: 134,653
--Chicago (Loop), 348 Lake, 112,275

It will be interesting to look at these numbers in 10 years since a chunk of this area is empty/industrial. My guess is the center mark with the highest population will move ever so slightly South with Fulton Market putting up more residential. Even without moving the center, the population around 222 W Erie could increase substantially with the addition 15,000 units just based on current construction and future plans. Bringing the population more on par with Los Angeles and San Francisco.

2,656 units at North Union
1,058 units at the approved Cabrini Green phase 2 development that just makes it in.
2650 units at Halsted Point
1,000 potential units at the site Onni bought between Halsted Point and the Casino site
4,000 estimated (by me) units for the Casino District
1,500 units from NOMA
250 Units at One Fulton Market
227 units from HUGO
200 at 808 N Cleveland
168 units at 741 N Wells

Most likely the residents of the 812 units from One Chicago weren't counted
Not sure if the 300 units at 900 W Randolph will make the cut

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Yeah, Bronx is no surprise. Bronx has the highest structural density in U.S. outside of Manhattan.

Queens, overall, is obviously much less dense than Brooklyn, but has very high density peaks in the western half of the borough.

Population above each density threshold by borough:

0 (total):
Manhattan - 1,694,263
Brooklyn - 2,736,074
Bronx - 1,472,654
Queens - 2,405,464

50,000 per square mile:
Manhattan - 1,577,382
Brooklyn - 1,808,659
Bronx - 980,928
Queens - 788,832

100k:
Manhattan - 942,160
Brooklyn - 189,404
Bronx - 360,081
Queens - 175,949
(Rest of the country: 70,552)

150k:
Manhattan - 239,028
Brooklyn - 19,070
Bronx - 46,698
Queens - 41,216
(Rest of the country: 12,926)

190k:
Manhattan - 70,978
Brooklyn - 0
Bronx - 0
Queens - 13,200

[edale]

Originally Posted by Klippenstein

It will be interesting to look at these numbers in 10 years since a chunk of this area is empty/industrial. My guess is the center mark with the highest population will move ever so slightly South with Fulton Market putting up more residential. Even without moving the center, the population around 222 W Erie could increase substantially with the addition 15,000 units just based on current construction and future plans. Bringing the population more on par with Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Of course LA and San Francisco will also be adding units and population over the next 10 years...

Downtown LA, in particular, has lots of room to develop. Development there has slowed compared to recent years, but there is still plenty in the pipeline and there are a large amount of surface parking lots and underutilized industrial property just waiting to be redeveloped. SF also has infill sites, including the huge u/c Mission Rock development, continued redevelopment of SoMa, etc.

[mhays]

I agree about places with lots of room to develop.

Also, form matters. Places that allow height and high FAR ratios, and where little or no parking is a viable option, will fit more housing.

I'm optimistic about Seattle. Greater Downtown is getting cohesive in some areas but there's room to grow dramatically, even while the challenges per project are getting tougher and more expensive. We commonly built 350 units on 1/3 acre, or 50 on 1/6 of an acre in fringe districts. That can add up quickly, even though our equation doesn't make family-sized housing easy. Another 50% seems plausible in 15-20 years.