The US Census Bureau thread

[C.]

Originally Posted by fleonzo

Hopefully we start slowing down as this would not be sustainable for a whole host of reasons.....

[fleonzo]

Originally Posted by C.

Hilarious movie...!!!

[SlidellWx]

New Orleans MSA/CSA urban areas

MSA Urban Areas:

New Orleans = 914,531
Mandeville-Covington = 113,763
Slidell = 91,587
Laplace-Lutcher-Gramercy = 48,681

Urban population = 1,168,562 (91.9% of MSA population)


CSA Urban Areas:

Hammond = 72,526
Picayune, MS = 16,301
Bogalusa = 11,019

Urban population = 1,268,408 (84.2% of CSA population)

Also, the New Orleans urban area is the 4th most densely populated urban area with a population >= 50,000 east of the MS River. Density measured at 3,819 people/sq. mile. Not a surprise given the population south of Lake Pontchartrain is largely confined to areas within the hurricane levee protection system.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Vital Stats - United States

------------------- Births ----- Deaths

Jan-Jun 2021 --- 1,752,000 --- 1,684,000

Jan-Jun 2022 --- 1,765,000 --- 1,671,000

The US is heading to another horrible year demographic wise. Covid deaths are still very high deforming their death curve and births show any sign to recover. In fact, between Apr-Jun, numbers are below 2021. If this trend keeps going, 2022 will register less births than 2021.

Vital Stats: United States

---------------------- Births ----- Deaths
Jan-Sep 2021 --- 2,733,000 --- 2,556,000
Jan-Sep 2022 --- 2,733,000 --- 2,441,000

CDC released Jun-Sep and number of deaths plunged as Covid is under control. Births fell a bit though and it will certainly end the year on the 3.6 million bracket for the 3rd year straight. Lowest number since the early 1980's.

[Yuri]

Natural growth in 2022 will probably be around 400k, above the 200k (2021) and 230k (2020), but still far away from the pre-pandemic levels, 893k (2019) let alone the 1.893 million (2007) when births started to plunge.

It's up in the air whether the US will post negative natural growth this decade, but I guess it will at some point between 2027-2030.

[Crawford]

U.S. immigration is ramping up again, after the Covid/Trump shutdown, so the next few years will almost certainly show growing population increases.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

U.S. immigration is ramping up again, after the Covid/Trump shutdown, so the next few years will almost certainly show growing population increases.

I was thinking more about natural growth. If we consider immigration, the US will definitely not shrink this decade. In this case, shrinking is more a late 2030's issue, but that's far way in the future, so it's impossible to tell how immigration patterns and mood will be around that time.

[chris08876]

The U.S. likely won't have to worry about any reduction in population gain because all they have to do is raise the cap to fill that void. Plenty in the pipeline awaiting access (legally). Millions in fact. Illegal migration is aiding and once they have kids, that 14th amendment kicks in.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by chris08876

The U.S. likely won't have to worry about any reduction in population gain because all they have to do is raise the cap to fill that void. Plenty in the pipeline awaiting access (legally). Millions in fact. Illegal migration is aiding and once they have kids, that 14th amendment kicks in.

But that's precisely the main problem: immigration has became such a toxic subject in the US that already impacted immigration badly.

We don't know when/if Americans will sort thing out and till then the US might get into a negative terrain eventually. It's just symbolic in any case: there's not a very big difference growing 0.1% or -0.1%.

[Yuri]

UAs 2020

City Population updated their urban area list with their very good maps: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/ua/

Here we can easily see those cases where UAs could be merged. On Boston UA, for example, you have Ipswich UA, which is an enclave and also Nashua, Worcester and Providence UAs with very rigid, straight-lined borders. Arguably, Providence should be a different urban area, but the others might be merged.

Boston UA would have 4,382,009 people in 4,289 km² (density is much higher now with their new definitions). Boston plus Worcester, Nashua and Ipswich would have 5,116,458 inh. in 5,486 km².

And we find similar cases all over the US, aside of course, the classical cases of NY, LA and SF.

[Yuri]

Another one hardly mentioned: Dallas UA. With 5,732,354 inh., it jumps to 6,680,723 when McKinney-Frisco, Denton and Denton Southwest UAs are added. All of three the most ordinary suburbs and separated by a random straight line from Dallas UA.

[creamcityleo79]

Originally Posted by Yuri

UAs 2020

City Population updated their urban area list with their very good maps: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/ua/

Here we can easily see those cases where UAs could be merged. On Boston UA, for example, you have Ipswich UA, which is an enclave and also Nashua, Worcester and Providence UAs with very rigid, straight-lined borders. Arguably, Providence should be a different urban area, but the others might be merged.

Boston UA would have 4,382,009 people in 4,289 km² (density is much higher now with their new definitions). Boston plus Worcester, Nashua and Ipswich would have 5,116,458 inh. in 5,486 km².

And we find similar cases all over the US, aside of course, the classical cases of NY, LA and SF.

Just to clarify, this is NOT using the new urban area definitions from the 2020 Census...or is it?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by creamcityleo79

Just to clarify, this is NOT using the new urban area definitions from the 2020 Census...or is it?

It is. Much smaller areas.

[ChiSoxRox]

The newest round of bullsh-- uh, I mean the annual estimates drops on Thursday. County numbers for Junly 1, 2022, including county equivalents.

[muertecaza]

Mildly interesting:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...ensus-99703301

Phoenix has become the largest U.S. city to successfully challenge its population count from the 2020 census after claiming that dozens of group homes, jails and drug and alcohol treatment centers were overlooked during the nation’s head count.

The U.S. Census Bureau told Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego last week that the statistical agency had approved its submission claiming that 3,550 people in 192 group quarter facilities were missed during the once-a-decade census. The facilities included drug and alcohol treatment centers, a memory care center for people with Alzheimer's and a residential facility for juveniles needing mental health care.

The count of every U.S. resident determines political representation and how $1.5 trillion in federal spending is distributed for transportation, health and other programs.

The additional figures will be included in future population estimates for Phoenix released each year until the next census in 2030, the bureau said in a letter to the mayor. The census determined that Phoenix was the fastest-growing big city in the U.S. between 2010 and 2020, increasing by 11.2% to 1.6 million residents and making it the fifth most populous U.S. city.

The successful challenge by Phoenix won't change how many congressional seats Arizona got during the apportionment process, or the more detailed numbers used for redrawing political boundaries...

[nito]

Couldn’t really think of a home for this, but some rather surprising differences in terms of integration and mixing of racial/ethnic groups.


Source: John Burn-Murdoch/Financial Times, https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/sta...61364867657730

[mhays]

Go Pacific Northwest!

This has been obvious for a long time. Look at any dot map. There's still segregation, but much less than most regions.

[Docere]

The index of dissimilarity is much higher for Blacks than for other minorities. Cities with smaller Black populations are less segregated.

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by Docere

The index of dissimilarity is much higher for Blacks than for other minorities. Cities with smaller Black populations are less segregated.

Also, generally Western in US geographical terms, meaning much younger housing development and much less of an entrenched history with redlining practices.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Docere

The index of dissimilarity is much higher for Blacks than for other minorities. Cities with smaller Black populations are less segregated.

The biggest factor is how much the metro area has grown since the Civil Rights movement. Generally, all of the cities that have grown the most since 1970 are less segregated than the ones that have grown the least since 1970.

Detroit (rank 2), growth: -0.9%
St. Louis (5) 11.2%
Milwaukee (1) 12.2%
Philadelphia (7) 17.4%
New York (4) 18.0%
Chicago (3) 26.4%
Baltimore (10) 36.2%
San Francisco (14) 67.8%
Los Angeles (8) 86.8%
Seattle (20) 119.3%
Washington, DC (11) 123.2%
Portland (21) 131.8%
San Diego (15) 142.9%
Denver (17) 165.5%
Miami (6) 174.4%
Dallas (13) 215.1%
Atlanta (9) 245.3%
Houston (12) 258.8%
Phoenix (16) 366.3%
Austin (18) 472.4%
Las Vegas (19) 729.0%

Miami and Atlanta are notable exceptions as they are the only two metros with triple digit growth rates that are also in the top 10 most segregated places.

Timing might also be a factor for why the UK cities diverge so much from US cities. UK cities got the bulk of their non-white immigration late enough to learn from missteps in the US. Canada, which received the bulk of its non-white immigration in parallel to the UK, will probably look more similar to the UK than the US.