Worldwide Demographics

[Crawford]

I wonder about the population estimates for Caracas. We might never know.

In any case, it might be decades before anyone can make rough estimates. Caracas was probably the richest city in Latin America in the 1960's/1970's. Now it's likely much poorer than Bogota.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I wonder about the population estimates for Caracas. We might never know.

In any case, it might be decades before anyone can make rough estimates. Caracas was probably the richest city in Latin America in the 1960's/1970's. Now it's likely much poorer than Bogota.

According to estimates Caracas is just above 5 million. But sadly, every hard data on Venezuela is iffy, so I opted to leave it out of the list, specially as the real population will likely be smaller. It's crazy to think how a country can descent so quickly. People talk about the long-term Argentinian decline, but Venezuelan one is really unique.

[Labtec]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

As we have the US Census numbers, here an update for the situation in the continent.

Largest Metropolitan Areas in Americas (2020)

--------------------- 2020 --- 10-year growth

Mexico City ----- 22.727.239 --- 9,0%

New York -------- 22.692.839 --- 6,2%

São Paulo ------- 22.020.009 --- 8,4%

Los Angeles ----- 18.644.680 --- 4,3%

Buenos Aires ---- 16.025.500 -- 11,5%

Rio de Janeiro -- 12.616.337 --- 6,7%

Lima ------------ 10.804.609 -- 17,5%

Bogotá ----------- 9.986.954 -- 14,5%

Chicago ---------- 9.618.502 --- 1,7%

San Francisco ---- 8.036.501 --- 8,4%

Toronto ---------- 7.950.441 -- 14,5%

Santiago --------- 7.912.746 -- 15,0%

Dallas ----------- 7.320.577 -- 19,9%

Houston ---------- 7.122.240 -- 20,3%

Philadelphia ----- 6.245.051 --- 4,7%

Miami ------------ 6.138.333 -- 10,3%

Boston ----------- 6.095.791 --- 8,3%

Atlanta ---------- 6.089.815 -- 15,2%

Washington ------- 5.937.417 -- 13,3%

Monterrey -------- 5.341.177 -- 26,4%

Detroit ---------- 5.325.319 --- 2,0%

Guadalajara ------ 5.268.642 -- 16,5%

Belo Horizonte --- 5.244.005 --- 9,9%

For the US and Mexico, 2020 Census numbers. For other countries, estimates as several had their census postponed or conduct on other periods.

Atlanta should surpass Boston, Miami, and Philly in the next census.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Labtec

Atlanta should surpass Boston, Miami, and Philly in the next census.

Definitely. And probably Miami as well. Washington DC might surpass Philadelphia or Boston, but I believe it will slow down a bit this decade, so maybe it's not enough for 2030.

And Atlanta, as it grows fast and is surrounded by small counties, might bring more counties into its MSA boosting its numbers. Philadelphia and Boston might do that as well, but it's more challenging to think of Reading and Providence being part of their metro areas.

[Yuri]

As we mentioned the future, here my projections for 2030:

--- Mexico City, New York and São Paulo will most likely slow down. Growing between 4% and 7.5%, something like that. New York increasing by 1 million, to reach 23.7 million. Mexico City has slightly better demographics than São Paulo, but the Brazilian have a more robust economy. Mexico City 24.4 million and São Paulo 23.5 million;

--- I guess Los Angeles will come stronger next decade: 19.6 million in 2030. To cross the 20 million mark, they'll need a 7.5% growth. Very modest for a LA of other times, but hard to achieve today;

--- 17.3 million for Buenos Aires;

--- Rio de Janeiro growth will all but collapse. Migration surplus will be negligible. I don't see the city fighting back unless Brazilian economy start to grow at a very fast pace and I don't see that happening. 13 million people for Rio in 2030;

--- Lima, and specially Bogotá, will slow down, but they'll probably post very decent growth: 12.3 million and 10.9 million respectively;

--- Chicago needs 4% to cross the 10 million mark. That's less than Philadelphia grew, but it seems very challenging for Chicago. I don't know what to expect;

--- San Francisco and Toronto will have to slow down at some point. 8.5 million and 8.7 million for 2030/2031;

--- Santiago at 8.7 million;

--- Dallas and Houston not only will grow fast, but it will also add new counties into their metropolitan areas. Taking this into account, we might have 9.4 million for Dallas and 8.6 million for Houston;

--- 6.5 million for Philadelphia, 6.6 million for Miami, 6.4 million for Boston, 6.7 million for Atlanta, 6.5 million for Washington and 5.5 million for Detroit;

--- Monterrey at 6.3 million and Guadalajara with 5.8 million;

--- Seattle and Phoenix will be the only metro areas joining the 5 million club. Maybe, Montreal, by the time of 2031 Census. Brasília and Recife won't get there in time.

[chris08876]

A lot can happen in the decade to come. Hopefully the tri-state continues to grow strong. I think economic updates and housing will be big predictors. If the region remains strong, and housing keeps up, there could be the chance to make the predictions wrong (say 2030 estimates). As with other metros.

It'll be interesting to see what working from home/remote work will do to the nations population distribution. Possibly tech will be the catalyst that leads to sizable density in some of our burbs.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

As we have the US Census numbers, here an update for the situation in the continent.

Largest Metropolitan Areas in Americas (2020)

--------------------- 2020 --- 10-year growth

Mexico City ----- 22.727.239 --- 9,0%

New York -------- 22.692.839 --- 6,2%

São Paulo ------- 22.020.009 --- 8,4%

Los Angeles ----- 18.644.680 --- 4,3%

Buenos Aires ---- 16.025.500 -- 11,5%

Rio de Janeiro -- 12.616.337 --- 6,7%

Lima ------------ 10.804.609 -- 17,5%

Bogotá ----------- 9.986.954 -- 14,5%

Chicago ---------- 9.618.502 --- 1,7%

San Francisco ---- 8.036.501 --- 8,4%

Toronto ---------- 7.950.441 -- 14,5%

Santiago --------- 7.912.746 -- 15,0%

Dallas ----------- 7.320.577 -- 19,9%

Houston ---------- 7.122.240 -- 20,3%

Philadelphia ----- 6.245.051 --- 4,7%

Miami ------------ 6.138.333 -- 10,3%

Boston ----------- 6.095.791 --- 8,3%

Atlanta ---------- 6.089.815 -- 15,2%

Washington ------- 5.937.417 -- 13,3%

Monterrey -------- 5.341.177 -- 26,4%

Detroit ---------- 5.325.319 --- 2,0%

Guadalajara ------ 5.268.642 -- 16,5%

Belo Horizonte --- 5.244.005 --- 9,9%

For the US and Mexico, 2020 Census numbers. For other countries, estimates as several had their census postponed or conduct on other periods.

Wow, NY almost retook the throne of largest urban area in the western hemisphere?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by chris08876

A lot can happen in the decade to come. Hopefully the tri-state continues to grow strong. I think economic updates and housing will be big predictors. If the region remains strong, and housing keeps up, there could be the chance to make the predictions wrong (say 2030 estimates). As with other metros.

It'll be interesting to see what working from home/remote work will do to the nations population distribution. Possibly tech will be the catalyst that leads to sizable density in some of our burbs.

I used 4.5% growth for my New York guessing. To me, it would be a good number.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Wow, NY almost retook the throne of largest urban area in the western hemisphere?

Not really. By the definition I used, New York was actually the most populated metro area in Americas till 2010, with 21.358 million compared to 20.835 million of Mexico City and 20.317 million of São Paulo.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

--- San Francisco, Toronto, Santiago, Dallas and Houston all growing fast. For now. Chilean capital will start to deal with smaller growth as births plunged there. San Francisco and Toronto with high housing prices. And the Texans, well, they're the strongest bet to keep growing at a fast pace;

--- Seattle, Phoenix and Caracas are about to break the 5 million barrier. We have some on the continent 4 million people metro areas (Brasília, Recife, Porto Alegre, Montreal) but they're still far away from the 5 million mark.

In absolute numbers, Toronto CMA was the fastest growing metro in Canada/US before the pandemic hit. Dallas/Houston absolute population growth started heading down and fell significantly below Toronto. It suggests that Toronto is the best bet to have the strongest growth in that grouping. 10 years is a long time but the most recent non-COVID data is all one can go by. You're correct to mention high real estate prices as a drag on population growth. Torontonians are de-camping to KW, London, and Halifax. Time will tell, I guess.


MONTREAL (4,576,312)
4,364,189 (Montreal) + 42,854 (Salaberry-de-Valleyfield) + 61,424 (Saint Hyacinthe) + 13,472 (Lachute) + 52,261 (Joliiette) + 42,112 (Sorel-Tracy)


Montreal could be above 5 million at the end of the next 10 year period, 2030. It sits in a fairly dense area with a large number of sizeable towns that increasingly behave like bedroom communities of Montreal. One of these CAs (Census Agglomerations) will be added to the Montreal CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) for the 2021 Census according to Statistics Canada. I can't remember which one. The rest could easily get absorbed by the end of the decade. Above are population estimates of 5 notable CAs that sit close to the Montreal CMA. If they had been part of the Montreal CMA in 2020 it would have had a population of 4,151,965 in 2010 and 4,576,212 in 2020. If this area grows at the same rate that it did 2010-2020 (+424,347 or 10.22%) it would register 5,044,011 in 2030.

Montreal, arguably, sprawls more than any other Canadian metro. Montrealers seem to gravitate to these satellite towns in search of space. The numerous towns circling Montreal have a high likelihood of becoming growth centres for Montreal CMA and then absorbed by it. And there are others besides the 5 CAs I listed.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20200101
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20200101

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The Mexican Big Three (Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey) are now stereotyped as safest for middle class people, and rural areas are now stereotyped as lawless, with drug warlords controlling most public services. Not sure ether stereotype is rooted in reality, however.

So it's likely that middle class Mexicans have reversed their migration patterns from the 90's and 00's, when they were fleeing the biggest cities.

Is Puebla also a part of that group of safe cities?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by isaidso

In absolute numbers, Toronto CMA was the fastest growing metro in Canada/US before the pandemic hit. Dallas/Houston absolute population growth started heading down and fell significantly below Toronto. It suggests that Toronto is the best bet to have the strongest growth in that grouping. 10 years is a long time but the most recent non-COVID data is all one can go by. You're correct to mention high real estate prices as a drag on population growth. Torontonians are de-camping to KW, London, and Halifax. Time will tell, I guess.

What's the source for Dallas and Houston slowing down? US Census numbers came above Estimates for the most part. I wouldn't use US yearly estimates to make any conclusions about Dallas and Houston.

Dallas CSA (which would probably its MSA by 2030), added 1.314 million between 2010 and 2020 while Houston CSA added 1.212 million. Let's wait for Canadian numbers, but no estimate indicates Toronto (plus Hamilton, Oshawa and Guelph, definition I used) will add more people between 2011-2021. I would bet +1.0 million for the region.

Originally Posted by isaidso

MONTREAL (4,576,312)
4,364,189 (Montreal) + 42,854 (Salaberry-de-Valleyfield) + 61,424 (Saint Hyacinthe) + 13,472 (Lachute) + 52,261 (Joliiette) + 42,112 (Sorel-Tracy)


Montreal could be above 5 million at the end of the next 10 year period, 2030. It sits in a fairly dense area with a large number of sizeable towns that increasingly behave like bedroom communities of Montreal. One of these CAs (Census Agglomerations) will be added to the Montreal CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) for the 2021 Census according to Statistics Canada. I can remember which one. The rest could easily get absorbed by the end of the decade. Above are population estimates of 5 notable CAs that sit close to the Montreal CMA. If they had been part of the Montreal CMA in 2020 it would have had a population of 4,151,965 in 2010 and 4,576,212 in 2020. If this area grows at the same rate that it did 2010-2020 (+424,347 or 10.22%) it would register 5,044,011 in 2030.

Montreal, arguably, sprawls more than any other Canadian metro. Montrealers seem to gravitate to these satellite towns in search of space. The numerous towns circling Montreal have a high likelihood of becoming growth centres for Montreal CMA and then absorbed by it. And there are others besides the 5 CAs I listed.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20200101
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...101%2C20200101

About Montreal, let's wait for 2021 Census numbers. If they confirm those 4.5 million, 5 million is possible for 2031.

BTW, do Canadians expand their metro areas? Any chance of those small areas orbitting Montreal to be regarded as part of it, officially?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Is Puebla also a part of that group of safe cities?

Yeah, Puebla would be stereotyped as safe.

Keep in mind I'm talking public perceptions, not reality. I'm not confident that major Mexican cities are necessarily safer than rural Mexico, but that's the current narrative, given that the feds tend to control the cities, while cartels tend to control rural areas.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

What's the source for Dallas and Houston slowing down? US Census numbers came above Estimates for the most part. I wouldn't use US yearly estimates to make any conclusions about Dallas and Houston.

TX is the second youngest state in the U.S. (only Mormon Utah is younger), and most of its growth is due to high birth rates from Mexican-Americans.

Mexican immigration has been dropping, and Hispanic birth rates have been dropping. So it's likely that the growth rate slows. If you have a gigantic share of your population consisting of Hispanics of child-bearing age, that growth balloon will slightly deflate as that cohort ages.

[edale]

Originally Posted by Crawford

TX is the second youngest state in the U.S. (only Mormon Utah is younger), and most of its growth is due to high birth rates from Mexican-Americans.

Mexican immigration has been dropping, and Hispanic birth rates have been dropping. So it's likely that the growth rate slows. If you have a gigantic share of your population consisting of Hispanics of child-bearing age, that growth balloon will slightly deflate as that cohort ages.

Hm interesting point. I wonder if Los Angeles' low rate of growth is is partly attributable to this, too.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

TX is the second youngest state in the U.S. (only Mormon Utah is younger), and most of its growth is due to high birth rates from Mexican-Americans.

Mexican immigration has been dropping, and Hispanic birth rates have been dropping. So it's likely that the growth rate slows. If you have a gigantic share of your population consisting of Hispanics of child-bearing age, that growth balloon will slightly deflate as that cohort ages.

Yes, they will slowdown, as they've been doing on the past 4 census. The thing is, their slowdown has been surprisingly slow. South Atlantic metro áreas, for instance, are dropping faster, while Texan ones are holding on quite well.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by edale

Hm interesting point. I wonder if Los Angeles' low rate of growth is is partly attributable to this, too.

I suspect it is. Anecdotally, I've noticed some of the biggest contiguous swathes of high-density population tracts in the LA region, especially just west and southeast of downtown, saw population declines since 2010. These are overwhelmingly Latino areas, and were in 2010 as well.

The declines could be the result of one or a combination of the following factors: fewer Mexican and Central American immigrants replacing those who moved out to different areas of the region, state, country or even abroad; lower birthrates among Latino residents, and; gentrification, as larger households get replaced by households with fewer (or no) children and/or fewer roommates than the previous tenants/owners. The latter is really only something I'd expect to see in areas like those adjacent to USC or within walking distance of downtown.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

What's the source for Dallas and Houston slowing down? US Census numbers came above Estimates for the most part. I wouldn't use US yearly estimates to make any conclusions about Dallas and Houston.

Dallas CSA (which would probably its MSA by 2030), added 1.314 million between 2010 and 2020 while Houston CSA added 1.212 million. Let's wait for Canadian numbers, but no estimate indicates Toronto (plus Hamilton, Oshawa and Guelph, definition I used) will add more people between 2011-2021. I would bet +1.0 million for the region.

My issue is will using 2010-2020 data to extrapolate to 2020-2030. Growth and growth rates never stay constant so it's important to look at changes that occur in specific years and the trend line. If growth in one metro starts trending down 2017-2020 while others trend upwards 2017-2020 shouldn't you use that instead of 2010-2020?

It's been a long time since I looked at 2017-2020 (pre-COVID) US MSA data so unsure what US Census Bureau data I was reading. I remember seeing the annual increase figure for Dallas had dropped below 120,000 but it's possible that they were the Estimates. As Estimates have been revised up and actual number published are there numbers by year or only for the 10 year period? It would be beneficial to see the numbers for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. If growth has edged down, a 10 year period figure won't reveal that.

Regarding 'Toronto', you included Guelph so I will too in this post. It's clear that growth gathered steam over the 10 year period 2010-2020 and peaked just before COVID hit at +147,262. Clearly, absolute population growth was much higher towards the end of that 10 year period than what it was at the beginning. The question is whether population growth will go back to the 145,000 to 150,000 range when the pandemic is over. That's a big question mark at this juncture.


'Toronto' Population Growth (July 1, 2018 - July 1, 2019)

Toronto +127,575 (+2.0%)
Hamilton +9,133 (1.2%)
Oshawa +7,858 (+1.9%)
Guelph +2,696 (+1.6%)

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

About Montreal, let's wait for 2021 Census numbers. If they confirm those 4.5 million, 5 million is possible for 2031.

BTW, do Canadians expand their metro areas? Any chance of those small areas orbitting Montreal to be regarded as part of it, officially?

As you know, Statistics Canada never combines metros (CMAs) together even if they grow into each other but they can expand by absorbing neighbouring Census Agglomerations. A Census Agglomeration (CA) becomes a Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) when the population is 100,000+ for 2 Census periods in a row. So it's a matter of absorbing a CA before it gains CMA status. A metro can also lose CMA designation. Montreal CMA will absorb a neighbouring CA for the 2021 Census. I can't remember which one. It will likely absorb other CAs in the 2026 Census and 2031 Census.

Btw, there are 5 CAs that will become CMAs in the 2021 Census: Fredericton, Red Deer, Chilliwack, Kamloops, Nanaimo. All 5 are now officially their own metro bringing the total to 40 CMAs in Canada.

[Yuri]

As Japanese also conducted their census, here a random post for the 4 most important cities in the world: Tokyo, New York, London and Paris.

I worked with strict and broader metro areas for each one of them and also look into their inner core to look into their densities and urban form as well. Note metro area definitions are two of several definitions I worked for each one of them. They're not comparable as administrative divisions are completely different from country to country. If someone is curious about it, just ask.

Anyway, let's start with the two metro area definitions, the wider and the strict:


---------------------- 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ Growth

Tokyo -------------- 36,938,977 -- 35,618,564 -- 33,418,366 ----- 3.7% --- 6.6% ----- 13,566 km²

New York ----------- 22,692,839 -- 21,358,372 -- 20,675,403 ----- 6.2% --- 3.3% ----- 21,770 km²

London ------------- 18,021,857 -- 16,619,216 -- 15,106,200 ----- 8.4% -- 10.0% ----- 17,586 km²

Paris -------------- 12,496,964 -- 11,871,075 -- 11,214,641 ----- 5.3% --- 5.9% ----- 13,355 km²

* Numbers for London: 2020, 2011 and 2011 and for Paris: 2018, 2007 and 1999


---------------------- 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ Growth

Tokyo -------------- 36,425,363 -- 35,043,522 -- 32,810,253 ----- 3.9% --- 6.8% ----- 10,354 km²

New York ----------- 18,430,255 -- 17,255,469 -- 16,788,583 ----- 6.2% --- 3.3% ----- 10,014 km²

London ------------- 16,006,625 -- 14,744,549 -- 13,395,000 ----- 8.6% -- 10.1% ----- 12,162 km²

Paris -------------- 11,238,820 -- 10,661,748 -- 10,053,456 ----- 5.4% --- 6.1% ------ 5,841 km²


Tokyo is in a completely different level. Almost 40 million in a valley and despite Japan's demographic challenges, it's growing.


And now their core:

---------------------- 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ Growth ------ Density

Tokyo -------------- 12,164,192 -- 11,194,879 -- 10,153,306 ----- 8.7% -- 10.3% ----- 842 km² --- 14,466.8 inh./km²

New York ------------ 9,529,044 --- 8,809,399 --- 8,617,253 ----- 8.2% --- 2.2% ----- 898 km² --- 10,611.4 inh./km²

London -------------- 7,075,358 --- 6,431,279 --- 5,671,500 ---- 10.0% -- 13.4% ----- 966 km² ---- 7,328.2 inh./km²

Paris --------------- 6,824,311 --- 6,542,670 --- 6,164,238 ----- 4.3% --- 6.1% ----- 762 km² ---- 8,955.8 inh./km²

We always talk about New York and Paris when talking about high densities, but Tokyo is also the king here.

Another interesting feature is how the core is growing much faster in all of them but Paris. It's the rebirth of the urban living we've talked about in other threads.

* Tokyo: Tokyo, Kawasaki and 4 small districts; New York: New York City and Hudson County, NJ; London: Greater London minus some outer boroughs; Paris: Paris, Seine-Saint-Denis, Val-de-Marne

[Yuri]

Ghana just released their census numbers. It's very interesting as it's the most typical West African country, the region we find one of the highest fertility rates in the world.

------------------------------------ 2021 ---------- 2010 ---------- 2000 ------------ Growth ----------- Density

GHANA ---------------------- 30,792,608 -- 24,658,823 -- 18,912,079 ----- 24.9% --- 30.4% ----- 129.1 inh./km²

Accra ------------------------- 5,446,237 ---- 4,010,054 ---- 2,905,726 ----- 35.8% --- 38.0% --- 1,678.3 inh./km²

Ghana crossed the 30 million mark and population growth had slowed down quite a bit. Accra is increasing its share on Ghana's total population (from 15% to 18%) and that will certainly help slowing down their growth.

Overall, it's a positive trend. Less presure on the local environment and probably will see a faster rising on living standards there.

[Yuri]

Romania

2021 estimates for Romania released:

1992 --- 22,810,035
2002 --- 21,680,974 --- -4.9%
2011 --- 20,121,641 --- -7.2%
2021 --- 19,186,201 --- -4.6%

Bucharest metro area:

1992 --- 2,354,510
2002 --- 2,226,457 --- -5.4%
2011 --- 2,272,163 --- +2.1%
2021 --- 2,322,961 --- +2.2%

As it's happening everywhere in Eastern Europe, Bucharest is doing much better than the rest of the country, and competing with Western Europe for Romanian migrants.

Covid-19 is still ravaging Romania. I hear vaccination is doing poorly there.

--------- Births --- Deaths
2000 --- 234,521 --- 255,820
2010 --- 212,199 --- 259,723
2019 --- 199,720 --- 259,889
2020 --- 176,766 --- 297,039
2021 --- 115,123 --- 199,207 (Jan-Ago)

Deaths are twice as high as births now.