The Ten Most Important US Cities (and in Canada)

[HyperPower]

Originally Posted by Shawn

Understanding FX is one of the most important parts of my ~20 year career in yen-denominated media trading

When an international company like Novartis is choosing a location for its global R&D HQ, they select Boston over Montreal not just because of Boston's life science primacy; it's also a currency hedge decision. Novartis is betting that CHFUSD movement long-term will be more favorable for them than CHFCAD. That's going to be the case for a majority of multinationals who largely operate in EUR, GBP, or JPY.

PPP exchange rates are relatively stable over time. Out of 194 countries/economies, 182 have higher GDP on a PPP basis, and 11 have higher nominal. For the United States, both are identical.

So the US is a more stable investment longterm for foreign multinationals like Big Pharma or maybe even a company playing the media advertisement game online, especially if the Yen is floating and worth less than the dollar (depending on the market).
US Fed currently has tightened up with higher rates and Japan was still QE until recently.. all fiat currency will end eventually. Digital next?!

I found the CSA map 2020 from the Census Bureau but without the GDP data...

https://i.ibb.co/BB9wpXJ/CSA-Wall-Map-Mar2020.jpg

[nito]

Originally Posted by HyperPower

Thank you for clarifying why nobody took it seriously and they stopped making the listings.. using 'professionals' (so called) opinions working in one sector or another as opposed to actual financial & economic metrics is as bizzare as your long bantering comment of defending it.
Forbes & Fortune are very much respected using real updated (not 2000) economic metrics which is why according GaWC, London in most metrics wouldn't even qualify as a beta city except in name alone.

Review the updated and recent metrics in the above post. Not old 2000 opinionated data from people.

I’m not sure who made you the arbiter or how you formulated the idea that nobody takes it seriously, when it is possibly one of the most heavily referenced and critiqued pieces of human geography research in the last two decades. Nor am I sure why you think they stopped producing updates when I stated that releases are intermittent (previous releases have ranged from 2-6 years), with the last published in 2020.

The authors of The World According to GaWC never envisioned it as solely authoritative/the only hierarchy that matters. It does however betray the lack of understanding of the research which was to measure connectivity and derive a hierarchy based upon 172 professional service firms across 707 cities.

You are more than happy to use your own lists or other sources to create rankings, but people are equally open to critique your points. For example if I asked you the question, which city trades more USD than any other, accounts for the largest share of cross-border bank lending and half of global interest rate OTC derivatives, what city am I talking about?

[Acajack]

It's ridiculous to say that Montreal is a Charlotte-level city, and that Toronto is a San Jose-level city. Based primarily on GDP in both cases.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's ridiculous to say that Montreal is a Charlotte-level city, and that Toronto is a San Jose-level city. Based primarily on GDP in both cases.

The more interesting thing to speculate about is whether or not Canada's cities and general population would improve their per capita GDP if they were absorbed into the United States.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

lol — come on man he’s from sw ohio, but fyi canadian staters seem to have quite a bit of interest in northern ohio. i have met people and have seen plenty of ontario & other plates my whole life all over visiting ne ohio. not to mention personally speaking i have an aunt in cleveland from montreal and also we summered on pelee. aside from cleveland things to do and cedar point, there has always been a popular circle the lake rec movement we all do. in fact in my nook of ne ohio we took canadian money one to one until farely recently i believe, that is coins and small bills. so anyway yeah, in summary there is more than one ohio, boddy.

I suppose that those Canadians you are referring to are from extreme southwestern Ontario. Beyond that Ohio likely doesn't register any more for Canadians than Indiana or Kentucky. I mean, we know it exists but it doesn't stand out from other states.

Where I live if I were to ask people about Ohio the top thing that would come up is probably "Columbus Blue Jackets".

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's ridiculous to say that Montreal is a Charlotte-level city, and that Toronto is a San Jose-level city. Based primarily on GDP in both cases.

Strictly based on economic size, I think it's reasonable. Charlotte is a large U.S. metro approaching 3 million, and Montreal is a large Canadian metro with slightly over 4 million. It makes sense that they have similar-sized economies. The U.S., on average is about 20-25% "wealthier" than Canada. Charlotte is a more important banking and corporate center and a more important air hub.

San Jose basically means Silicon Valley, and it's obviously an economic powerhouse. I don't know the population or where they draw the MSA boundaries, but it would clearly have a much larger-than-average economy for American standards.

As cities, Charlotte is pretty weak, and San Jose even moreso, and Montreal is a special place and arguably world-class, but that's irrelevant to a GDP comparison. Florence is a much better city than Dallas but is comparatively an economic pipsqueak.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Strictly based on economic size, I think it's reasonable. Charlotte is a large U.S. metro approaching 3 million, and Montreal is a large Canadian metro with slightly over 4 million. It makes sense that they have similar-sized economies. The U.S., on average is about 20-25% "wealthier" than Canada. Charlotte is a more important banking and corporate center and a more important air hub.

San Jose basically means Silicon Valley, and it's obviously an economic powerhouse. I don't know the population or where they draw the MSA boundaries, but it would clearly have a much larger-than-average economy for American standards.

As cities, Charlotte is pretty weak, and San Jose even moreso, and Montreal is a special place and arguably world-class, but that's irrelevant to a GDP comparison. Florence is a much better city than Dallas but is comparatively an economic pipsqueak.

We think the same way.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

The more interesting thing to speculate about is whether or not Canada's cities and general population would improve their per capita GDP if they were absorbed into the United States.

Yes, it would be interesting. My sense is that yes major cities like Montreal and Toronto would get a GDP boost, though I guess a really important related question is whether there would even be cities of that size in those locations if Canada were part of the US.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Crawford

As cities, Charlotte is pretty weak, and San Jose even moreso, and Montreal is a special place and arguably world-class, but that's irrelevant to a GDP comparison. Florence is a much better city than Dallas but is comparatively an economic pipsqueak.

I think this is what is frustrating for those who want American cities to revive formerly walkable areas - there seems to be no correlation between the walkability of a US city, the percentage of its population that uses public transportation/bikes, etc., and its economic ranking.

We were told by Richard Florida, etc., 15-20 years ago, that Portland, OR was destined for greatness because of its suburban growth boundary and robust rail system. FFWD to 2023 and it has been left in the dust by Austin, TX, which made no similar effort.

[Crawford]

Yeah, Richard Florida has been wrong about basically everything. Which is not to say that cities shouldn't focus on certain place-making amenities, but don't pretend it's a magic formula or automatic competitive advantage.

[Acajack]

Portland was actually doing pretty well, until, well... you know.

[iheartthed]

General message, but "GDP" (or economic output) doesn't neatly correlate with "importance" or even number of jobs. Places that employ fewer people in high-margin industries (e.g. finance) can have a higher "GDP" than places that are dominated by more competitive industries (e.g. automotive). Charlotte may have a higher GDP than Montreal, which if true is absolutely because of its position as a secondary banking center, but it absolutely is not a more "important" city than Montreal.

[Acajack]

Charlotte vs Montreal as financial centres is an interesting discussion.

There is no denying Charlotte's GDP primacy and it's no doubt related at least in part to being a secondary HQ hub for US banks. Another factor as others have said is that US cities, metros and states always punch higher in terms of GDP in general, since the US economy is so optimally capitalized compared to most any other.

Still, Charlotte doesn't generally show up in any top global financial centres lists. Montreal is on almost all of them, though not in the top 10 of course.

According to an article from some Charlotte business journal, there were 91,000 financial sector jobs in Charlotte at the end of 2022.

Whereas Montreal already had 100,000 financial sector jobs in 2007-2008, and the sector there has grown and not contracted since then.

Now, it's fairly likely that that on average each financial sector job in Charlotte brings in more money (for both the employer and employee) than each equivalent job in Montreal does.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Yeah, Richard Florida has been wrong about basically everything. Which is not to say that cities shouldn't focus on certain place-making amenities, but don't pretend it's a magic formula or automatic competitive advantage.

Montreal is probably a much better classic city than Toronto (I haven't been to either in 20 years, so I can't speak to how they have evolved in that time), and has a terrific subway system, but if Americans don't care about these things in the United States (which they don't), they're not going to seek out business opportunities in Montreal just so they can live without a car.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Montreal is probably a much better classic city than Toronto (I haven't been to either in 20 years, so I can't speak to how they have evolved in that time), and has a terrific subway system, but if Americans don't care about these things in the United States (which they don't), they're not going to seek out business opportunities in Montreal just so they can live without a car.

Richard Florida's theory was partly analysis and partly wishful thinking.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Charlotte vs Montreal as financial centres is an interesting discussion.

There is no denying Charlotte's GDP primacy and it's no doubt related at least in part to being a secondary HQ hub for US banks. Another factor as others have said is that US cities, metros and states always punch higher in terms of GDP in general, since the US economy is so optimally capitalized compared to most any other.

Still, Charlotte doesn't generally show up in any top global financial centres lists. Montreal is on almost all of them, though not in the top 10 of course.

According to an article from some Charlotte business journal, there were 91,000 financial sector jobs in Charlotte at the end of 2022.

Whereas Montreal already had 100,000 financial sector jobs in 2007-2008, and the sector there has grown and not contracted since then.

Now, it's fairly likely that that on average each financial sector job in Charlotte brings in more money (for both the employer and employee) than each equivalent job in Montreal does.

Charlotte is more of a middle office and back office hub. Technically BoA is headquartered there, and Wells Fargo also has significant operations, but I think management of both institutions probably spend more time in NYC or SF than Charlotte.

[hipster duck]

It's kind of interesting that Charlotte and Ohio came up in this conversation. North Carolina and Ohio are the two largest states by population that don't have a clear global city.

Unlike NJ and VA, which are smaller but still populous, they don't even have the suburban areas of a globally important city.

Coincidentally, the only Canadian province that can see eye-to-eye with the US in nominal GDP terms is Alberta, which is also the largest province by population that doesn't have a global city.

[pico44]

Ha, I remember this ranking. Weren’t there three or four of these lists back in the day? All trying to quantify a global list of cities; and—curiously-or-not-so-curiously—all being calculated by British firms; and they always had London as number one. “You see!? We are the greatest city in the world! It’s science!!” Cooking numbers to achieve a predetermined result as a form of statistical masturbation.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

It's kind of interesting that Charlotte and Ohio came up in this conversation. North Carolina and Ohio are the two largest states by population that don't have a clear global city.

The problem with having numerous mid-sized cities in close proximity is that there is no winner-take-all as occurs with cities that are more isolated, like Atlanta, Denver, Minneapolis, etc., which creates a compounding effect.

The various mid-sized Midwestern cities are all competing with each other for the same mid-sized conventions, that elusive third pro sports team, etc., all the while encircled by similar 2 million metros just a 90 minute drive a way.

My recollection of Charlotte is that it has pretty much zero "real" city outside of the downtown. Meanwhile, Columbus is the least "real" of Ohio's three big cities, but it is now poised to become the largest MSA. Again, we see the failure of Richard Florida's grand vision - the mediocre not-legacy cities are easily swimming past the legacy cities.

No historic neighborhoods, almost zero walkable first-ring suburbs, no symphony, no art museum, no nice parks, no subway, no accent, no local food - NO PROBLEM. Here come the yuppies!

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

My recollection of Charlotte is that it has pretty much zero "real" city outside of the downtown. Meanwhile, Columbus is the least "real" of Ohio's three big cities, but it is now poised to become the largest MSA. Again, we see the failure of Richard Florida's grand vision - the mediocre not-legacy cities are easily swimming past the legacy cities.

No historic neighborhoods, almost zero walkable first-ring suburbs, no symphony, no art museum, no nice parks, no subway, no accent, no local food - NO PROBLEM. Here come the yuppies!

Richard Florida was looking for a desired statistic.

If you were going to divide up cities into a 2 X 2 Cartesian grid where on one axis you'd have "cities that attract people" and on the other you'd have "cities with good urban bones", you'd see that there are still more cities that don't attract people and have good urban bones than cities that attract people and have good urban bones. And the number of cities that attract people and don't have good urban bones is larger still.

And RF really overestimated how many people are employed in the creative sector - even if that includes STEM. Most people are employed doing jobs like cutting each other's hair, or doing each other's taxes. There are many more jobs that require a suburban, car-friendly environment - like logistics and manufacturing - than jobs that would attract people based on urban bona fides. And something like convenient highway access is a requirement for those jobs, whereas walkable neighbourhoods is just a "nice to have" for creative class jobs.