The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[JHikka]

Don't think the decimal percentage really conveys much, so
Prov Quarter Change (Year Change)
NL -152 (-2,708)
PEI +717 (+1,287)
NS +2,877 (+5,283)
NB +1,643 (+2,697)

Year Change
Atlantic Canada 2,440,310 -> 2,446,869 (+6,559)
Maritimes 1,917,316 -> 1,926,583 (+9,267)

Newfoundland (the island) dropped below 500K some time in the past few years. Now it's flirting with ~490K as Labrador floats around 27K on its own.

[Smevo]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Can't lose population if no one is allowed to leave because of the pandemic. Genius.

It's a lot easier to leave the Maritimes than it is to enter right now. There's no quarantine for inter-provincial travel anywhere else that I know of, definitely not in Alberta which is still a magnet for Maritimers.

[Taeolas]

Well the Retail Apocalypse may still be going on, but the Office space apocalypse seems to be delayed

Businesses seem to be seeking to return to their offices (or to set up new digs) as the COVID recovery continues. That should bode well for the empty office spaces in our cities.

Anecdotally, my own company is penciling a return to our offices for mid-September, mainly to try and get past the construction going on around the office. We're keeping work from home options open for those that want it, but otherwise we're regaining our main facility space. Personally I'm eager to get back in the office, just to have some better work/home space separation.

[JHikka]

Only tangentially-related to the Maritimes but I feel it warrants inclusion: with the 2020 US Census results finally released, we can get a more accurate picture of what's going on in Maine on the other side of the NB border. It's...not great.

County............2010....2020..........change 10-20
Aroostook.....71,870....67,105.......-4,765 (-6.6%)
Hancock.......54,418......55,478......+1,060 (+1.9%)
Penobscot.....153,923...152,199....-1,724 (-1.1%)
Piscataquis....17,535....16,800.......-735 (-4.2%)
Washington...32,856....31,095......-1,761 (-5.4%)

MSA
Bangor.........153,923....152,199...-1,724 (-1.1%)

https://www.census.gov/library/visua...tate-data.html

Maine's population as a whole increased 2.6% between 2010-2020, led by Portland and Lewiston, up 33,998 from 2010 and landing at 1.362M for the 2020 census. New England on the whole had a pretty good census all things considered.

I include this as supplement to the usual Canadian estimate numbers as I think it's good to provide context to what's happening in Northern and Western NB as compared to border regions in Maine and Quebec. Despite changes in border travel over the past twenty years there's still plenty of movement between border towns and nearby areas, so if Edmundston or St. Stephen are declining it's good to know if similar things are happening in nearby towns that they share local populations with. In this case, Northern and Eastern Maine are declining at a pretty steady rate, at this point more than their NB counterparts.

[MonctonRad]

A few interesting graphs from an article in Huddle today:







NB actually had a growth rate this year above the Canadian average!

Ontario is by the far the major source of interprovincial migration to NB (and to Atlantic Canada in general). NB had net positive immigration with every other Canadian jurisdiction, except Quebec (presumably for francophone outmigration) and Nova Scotia (presumably for anglophone outmigration).

Encouraging news indeed. I wonder how much of the Ontario exodus was pandemic fuelled? We will only find out by seeing what happens in the next few years.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Encouraging news indeed. I wonder how much of the Ontario exodus was pandemic fuelled? We will only find out by seeing what happens in the next few years.

I think COVID was the final straw.
I know about 10 families that have all moved here in the past 2 years. Their stories are similar:

1) Housing was very expensive there
2) COVID came, making work from home possible, or laying people off
3) "Screw it, I'll WFH somewhere I can afford with 100k in my pocket."

Nutshell.

[JHikka]

NB's (and the Maritimes as a whole) increased interprovincial migration rates were occurring prior to COVID - it merely just accelerated rates.

NB's ON and AB migration rates coming in with the QC rate going out really makes me think that the linguistic swing in some even-split areas is going to be accelerated and seen to be occurring in the 2021 Census. I've already covered before how Moncton's sprawl is anglicizing SE NB, but I think this is only going to accelerate if folks from Ontario are moving to Kent and Westmorland counties and supplanting the aging-out of the local Francophone population. This can already be seen in a town like Cap-Pele as it transitions away from Acadian fishing village to Moncton commuter village.

[Pugsley]

As someone who is in the process of moving out east from Toronto (we just bought a house in Saint Andrews) I can tell you that it isn't just the pandemic.

From our perspective, the Toronto housing market is super hot and we wanted to take advantage of this and put ourselves in a better overall financial position. We were able to sell our home, buy a new one out east, and be mortgage free. We both work from home so it makes sense. There are lots of people in the same boat as we are, especially people like myself who was born and raised in New Brunswick but left 25 years ago.

We looked at Halifax but to be honest, we didn't see the value of moving there from Toronto. The houses were small for the price and we always wanted to retire (one day) in Saint Andrews and thought if we don't get in now, it is only going to get even more expensive. Plus we liked being an hour from Saint John where there is just so many cool things happening in terms of food, nightlife, shopping, and culture. There is a really interesting renaissance happening there. One of my former employees also made the move, to the Kingston Peninsula north of SJ. They made the move for the exact same reason.

So, I think you will see even more people making this move. New Brunswick is far more affordable and you can get much more "house" for the price. Especially compared to traditional Ontario rural retirement destinations like Collingwood, Prince Edward County, Niagara-on-the-Lake, or god forbid the over-priced Muskoka.

So buy your homes and land now folks, the Ontario invasion is approaching.

LOL

[Smevo]

I missed out on a few opportunities to get property in Cape Breton. I made the "mistake" of discussing with my wife, who would always change her mind when we'd start to get serious about it.

There's still some bargains, but the price increases have been very noticeable over the years, starting pre-COVID, though they've definitely increased more rapidly during COVID, as has everywhere else.

[Taeolas]

Yeah my cousin's wife is involved in the CBRM Construction industry (sort've a PR person for it I think), and when we were visiting for Thanksgiving last year, she mentioned how the CBRM is booming finally; it's shaking off the decades of decay and stagnation, and really perking up. If they can keep that growth going and focused on the Sydney Core, Nova Scotia could finally see another CMA within another decade or two.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

As someone who is in the process of moving out east from Toronto (we just bought a house in Saint Andrews) I can tell you that it isn't just the pandemic.

From our perspective, the Toronto housing market is super hot and we wanted to take advantage of this and put ourselves in a better overall financial position. We were able to sell our home, buy a new one out east, and be mortgage free. We both work from home so it makes sense. There are lots of people in the same boat as we are, especially people like myself who was born and raised in New Brunswick but left 25 years ago.

We looked at Halifax but to be honest, we didn't see the value of moving there from Toronto. The houses were small for the price and we always wanted to retire (one day) in Saint Andrews and thought if we don't get in now, it is only going to get even more expensive. Plus we liked being an hour from Saint John where there is just so many cool things happening in terms of food, nightlife, shopping, and culture. There is a really interesting renaissance happening there. One of my former employees also made the move, to the Kingston Peninsula north of SJ. They made the move for the exact same reason.

So, I think you will see even more people making this move. New Brunswick is far more affordable and you can get much more "house" for the price. Especially compared to traditional Ontario rural retirement destinations like Collingwood, Prince Edward County, Niagara-on-the-Lake, or god forbid the over-priced Muskoka.

So buy your homes and land now folks, the Ontario invasion is approaching.

LOL

Welcome back! St. Andrews is beautiful, and SJ is truly doing turning a corner recently.

Reading stories like these - and hearing others from many people I've met who moved from Ontario in the past year - makes me more and more glad that we were able to find a house in the core of Saint John to buy this Spring. As a millennial, it seemed like a far-off aspiration to ever buy a home, but I'm glad we jumped into it now instead of waiting too long.

[josh_cat_eyes]

Where would one find the stats on what Canadians birth province is? I’m curious about how many maritime born people there is living in other parts of Canada or how many Atlantic Canadians were born elsewhere.

[nwalbert]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

As someone who is in the process of moving out east from Toronto (we just bought a house in Saint Andrews) I can tell you that it isn't just the pandemic.

From our perspective, the Toronto housing market is super hot and we wanted to take advantage of this and put ourselves in a better overall financial position. We were able to sell our home, buy a new one out east, and be mortgage free. We both work from home so it makes sense. There are lots of people in the same boat as we are, especially people like myself who was born and raised in New Brunswick but left 25 years ago.

We looked at Halifax but to be honest, we didn't see the value of moving there from Toronto. The houses were small for the price and we always wanted to retire (one day) in Saint Andrews and thought if we don't get in now, it is only going to get even more expensive. Plus we liked being an hour from Saint John where there is just so many cool things happening in terms of food, nightlife, shopping, and culture. There is a really interesting renaissance happening there. One of my former employees also made the move, to the Kingston Peninsula north of SJ. They made the move for the exact same reason.

So, I think you will see even more people making this move. New Brunswick is far more affordable and you can get much more "house" for the price. Especially compared to traditional Ontario rural retirement destinations like Collingwood, Prince Edward County, Niagara-on-the-Lake, or god forbid the over-priced Muskoka.

So buy your homes and land now folks, the Ontario invasion is approaching.

LOL

Welcome back to the greater SJ region, I have heard so many stories like this. People coming from Ontario for the housing prices, lack of traffic, and loving the cool urban SJ vibe.

This combined with the Port explosion should be interesting times ahead for SJ.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

I think COVID was the final straw.
I know about 10 families that have all moved here in the past 2 years. Their stories are similar:

1) Housing was very expensive there
2) COVID came, making work from home possible, or laying people off
3) "Screw it, I'll WFH somewhere I can afford with 100k in my pocket."

Nutshell.

Some of the WFH is going away though. I've heard secondhand anecdotes about people who uprooted their lives to move here and now the WFH option is going away. There's also the people who find healthcare lacking or perhaps miss big city amenities.

I do know people who would love to move here permanently and are currently WFH but have uncertainty about whether or not that will end. If you're not a homeowner and/or don't have kids it's a bit easier to at least move here temporarily with the option to go back.

[MonctonRad]

If there is a single most important impediment in people's minds when considering whether or not to move here, I would imagine it is the shortfall in health care resources.

It may not matter much if you are young and healthy, but most people in their 50s are on at least one prescription medication, and things only get worse as you age.

We need to open the floodgates to medical and nursing schools to address the situation now. It's important to remember that it takes 7-10 years to mint a physician after he/she gets accepted to medical school. Even if we start now, the backlog is only going to get worse for the next decade.

[Smevo]

I can tell you that for us, while Alberta was still denying the 4th wave existed, which they only really acknowledged in their usual half-measures way during the federal election, it was very tempting to move home where the job situation has been improving and housing prices are still relatively cheap. The healthcare issues in Nova Scotia, including the stories of paramedics taking forever to reach areas that shouldn't take long at all, was definitely in the back of my mind when deciding not to go, though it wasn't the deciding factor.

[Beaubassin]

CMHC housing data August 2021





https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/profe...h/housing-data

[MonctonRad]

Very interesting.

Halifax has 3x the population of metro Moncton, but the new housing starts in Halifax are less than 2x that of greater Moncton. This might give some indication as to relative growth rates.

[Smevo]

Downloadable excel files!! I'm bookmarking that! It's been a while since I've looked at CMHC data.

[darkharbour]

I know they are quite small compared to Halifax or Moncton in those charts, but after years and years of poor growth it is a great sign to see Saint John have hundreds of new housing starts this year! By the time the proposed projects Uptown and near/in Millidgeville get added to the stats, this will be a new injection of new housing for a city that had become far too used to trends in the opposite direction.