Worldwide Demographics

[mousquet]

I cannot see any correlation between weapon exports and demographics.

Experts in foreign affairs could write tons of essays about the benefits of designing, manufacturing and exporting weapons in this world.
It's not just the little money it stands for in your trade balance. It's a lot of influence because countries that buy weapons from yours somehow depend on your own.
That's why the US has always regarded France as an 'ungrateful' ally.
We don't want to depend on them too much. For example, we can design our own nukes and nuke your ass whenever it would be necessary.
The whole process of designing and producing nukes is our very own in this country. It costs some taxpayer money, but at least, we are fully independent in that respect.
That's not the case of Britain that actually relies on the US even when it comes to their own safety.

As for demographics, well, Africans are very much of the future, whether you like it or not.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

It's far from over though. And West Europe (where the money comes from) has only so much money, and many other issues to deal with. The Marshall Plan it's not going to be.

I doubt this conflict continues into 2024. And the west would absolutely love to finance Ukraine's rebuilding. I think Ukraine should be weary of that, though.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mousquet

I cannot see any correlation between weapon exports and demographics.

Experts in foreign affairs could write tons of essays about the benefits of designing, manufacturing and exporting weapons in this world.
It's not just the little money it stands for in your trade balance. It's a lot of influence because countries that buy weapons from yours somehow depend on your own.
That's why the US has always regarded France as an 'ungrateful' ally.
We don't want to depend on them too much. For example, we can design our own nukes and nuke your ass whenever it would be necessary.
The whole process of designing and producing nukes is our very own in this country. It costs some taxpayer money, but at least, we are fully independent in that respect.
That's not the case of Britain that actually relies on the US even when it comes to their own safety.

As for demographics, well, Africans are very much of the future, whether you like it or not.

Weapons exports are only 0.15% of Russia's GDP, 0.07% of France and 0.03% of the US.

And even if we think of the whole economy: Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, all of them have been posting very robust GDP growth for the past 20 years and they're still expelling people more than ever.

But ok, let's assume I'm completely wrong and somehow Ukraine will become Wakanda as iheartthed is claiming. I still have one question: where does Ukraine will find 400,000-500,000 immigrants every year only to prevent population to fall?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Weapons exports are only 0.15% of Russia's GDP, 0.07% of France and 0.03% of the US.

And even if we think of the whole economy: Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, all of them have been posting very robust GDP growth for the past 20 years and they're still expelling people more than ever.

But ok, let's assume I'm completely wrong and somehow Ukraine will become Wakanda as iheartthed is claiming. I still have one question: where does Ukraine will find 400,000-500,000 immigrants every year only to prevent population to fall?

Why are you so emotional about Ukraine? lol. Either you see it or you don't. There's no need to dismiss other viewpoints, especially when your own is extremely narrow minded. Just say you don't agree and drop it.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Why are you so emotional about Ukraine? lol. Either you see it or you don't. There's no need to dismiss other viewpoints, especially when your own is extremely narrow minded. Just say you don't agree and drop it.

Emotional? It's not me bringing cartoonish concepts into a demographic discussion only because you see the latest war on the same fashion a fan watches a football match.

Regarding dismissing other people's viewpoints, well, you have a big record of doing it in every thread without bothering to bring any single evidence. São Paulo's thread, for instance.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I still have one question: where does Ukraine will find 400,000-500,000 immigrants every year only to prevent population to fall?

Ukraine doesn't need any immigrants for postwar population growth. There are 8 million Ukranian nationals living in the West since Feb 2020. And there are an additional 4 million Ukranians living in Russia. Postwar growth is essentially guaranteed, as nearly 30% of Ukrainian nationals aren't in Ukraine.

Future immigration is highly likely to come from Russia, which will probably be poor and isolated, and possibly collapsed, for our lifetimes. There are 140 million Russians.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Ukraine doesn't need any immigrants for postwar population growth. There are 8 million Ukranian nationals living in the West since Feb 2020. And there are an additional 4 million Ukranians living in Russia. Postwar growth is essentially guaranteed, as nearly 30% of Ukrainian nationals aren't in Ukraine.

Future immigration is highly likely to come from Russia, which will probably be poor and isolated, and possibly collapsed, for our lifetimes. There are 140 million Russians.

I'm not talking 2023 or 2024. I'm talking 2019, 2020, 2021. Ukraine has already a 400,000 negative natural growth and the number is growing as population ages. If every single one of those 8 million returns (which won't happen for so many reasons), then Ukraine is back to Jan 2022 with the same 400,000 negative every year.

Then you have those 4 million in Russia proper, people that might be living there for over a century. I don't think any of them will return, but let's indulge ourselves: Ukraine would be back to the mid-2000's population levels, and again, with the same 400,000 negative natural growth ahead of them.

No matter how you look at it, Ukraine, as the Balkans you mentioned last page, has a massive demographic problem that has been present since 1990-1991. It has nothing to do with this war.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Emotional? It's not me bringing cartoonish concepts into a demographic discussion only because you see the latest war on the same fashion a fan watches a football match.

Regarding dismissing other people's viewpoints, well, you have a big record of doing it in every thread without bothering to bring any single evidence. São Paulo's thread, for instance.

You don't even know what cartoonish means lol. This must be the dumbest thing I've ever bothered responding to, and I've responded to some really dumb shit before. You're still mad because I don't like your city lol.

[badrunner]

Seems rather sadistic for yuri to be crowing over the demographics of a war torn country, especially after spending most of the year actively rooting for Russia in the war (at least until facts on the ground made him look foolish).

[Nite]

Originally Posted by badrunner

Seems rather sadistic for yuri to be crowing over the demographics of a war torn country, especially after spending most of the year actively rooting for Russia in the war (at least until facts on the ground made him look foolish).

How is he crowing?? Ukraine was in demographic collapse before the war and this will not be reversed with the end of the war.

The people who think Ukrainians will flood back to Ukraine after the war don't know what they are saying. The Ukrainians in the west have settled into their new countries for a year. they have homes and jobs where they are now making 10x to 20x what they could ever make in Ukraine. if anything, the male members who have been stuck in Ukraine will leave the country to join their families in the west after the war, not the opposite way.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by badrunner

Seems rather sadistic for yuri to be crowing over the demographics of a war torn country, especially after spending most of the year actively rooting for Russia in the war (at least until facts on the ground made him look foolish).

How is he crowing?? Ukraine was in demographic collapse before the war and this will not be reversed with the end of the war.

The people who think Ukrainians will flood back to Ukraine after the war don't know what they are saying. The Ukrainians in the west have settled into their new countries for a year now. they have homes, friends, jobs where they are now making 10x to 20x what they could ever make in Ukraine. if anything, the male members who have been stuck in Ukraine will leave the country to join their families in the west after the war, not the opposite way.

The irony to me of the situation is that because Ukrainian refugees have been given the most support than any other refuges in human history the country has emptied out faster. For example, Ukrainians have not been put into refugee camps or detainment centers which is the usual cast for other refugees. All the advantages they have been given over other non-white refugees will also make it harder for them to go back to Ukraine because they have been so welcomed into their new countries.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Nite

The people who think Ukrainians will flood back to Ukraine after the war don't know what they are saying. The Ukrainians in the west have settled into their new countries for a year. they have homes and jobs where they are now making 10x to 20x what they could ever make in Ukraine. if anything, the male members who have been stuck in Ukraine will leave the country to join their families in the west after the war, not the opposite way.

This is all complete nonsense. The idea that they will abandon their homes and businesses and families to live as permanent refugees is garbage. It sounds like some sick Kremlin fantasy. There will be millions of homes rebuilt. There will be trillions spent on creating a permanent bulwark.

Again, these aren't immigrants; they're refugees. They have no right to stay in the overwhelming majority of cases. They have homes, businesses and families in Ukraine. Of course some will leave but most will return, as intended.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Nite

How is he crowing?? Ukraine was in demographic collapse before the war and this will not be reversed with the end of the war.

The people who think Ukrainians will flood back to Ukraine after the war don't know what they are saying. The Ukrainians in the west have settled into their new countries for a year. they have homes and jobs where they are now making 10x to 20x what they could ever make in Ukraine. if anything, the male members who have been stuck in Ukraine will leave the country to join their families in the west after the war, not the opposite way.

The irony to me of the situation is that because Ukrainian refugees have been given the most support than any other refuges in human history has made the country empty out faster. All the advantages they have been given over other non-European immigrants will also make it harder for them to go back to Ukraine.

Ukrainian refugees have not been granted permanent residency in the EU. Most will likely have to return to Ukraine when the conflict is over.

Ukrainian refugees will have the right to live and work in the European Union for up to three years, under an emergency plan in response to what is becoming Europe’s biggest refugee crisis this century.

Nearly 875,000 people have fled Ukraine since Russia launched its brutal attack less than a week ago, according to the UN refugee agency, which has warned that 4 million could leave the country in the coming weeks and months.

More than half (454,000) have fled to Poland, while 116,000 have gone to Hungary, 67,000 to Slovakia, 45,000 to Romania and 79,000 to non-EU Moldova, Europe’s poorest country.

The EU plan, which is expected to be approved on Thursday by the bloc’s member states, would grant Ukrainian nationals and permanent residents the right to live, work, access healthcare, housing and education immediately for up to one year, without the requirement to go through lengthy asylum procedures. If the conflict continues, or refugees cannot return safely, that status could be extended for a further two years.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ive-in-eu-plan

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Ukrainian refugees have not been granted permanent residency in the EU. Most will likely have to return to Ukraine when the conflict is over.

Exactly.

Germany has been very clear. These are temporary guests. They're going home, to participate in the reconstruction, once the orcs are expelled.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Crawford

This is all complete nonsense. The idea that they will abandon their homes and businesses and families to live as permanent refugees is garbage. It sounds like some sick Kremlin fantasy. There will be millions of homes rebuilt. There will be trillions spent on creating a permanent bulwark.

Again, these aren't immigrants; they're refugees. They have no right to stay in the overwhelming majority of cases. They have homes, businesses and families in Ukraine. Of course some will leave but most will return, as intended.

Ukrainians aren't being treated like other refuges however, they have for the most part been given full rights to work and stay. for example, Canada isn't sending back the 300,000 Ukrainian who have come last year.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Ukrainian refugees have not been granted permanent residency in the EU. Most will likely have to return to Ukraine when the conflict is over.

Again, this is something other refugees don't get and as time goes on it will become harder for them to be expelled as they have started new lives at much higher standard of living.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Nite

Ukrainians aren't being treated like other refuges however, they have for the most part been given full rights to work and stay. for example, Canada isn't sending back the 300,000 Ukrainian who have come last year.

If true, fine for Canada, but largely irrelevant. The vast, vast majority of Ukranians are in Europe, and they're going back.

If Canada wants to keep all displaced refugees to further feed their housing ponzi scheme, while destabilizing Ukraine, that's their call, but Europe, the U.S. and allies intend to rebuild Ukraine via trillions in seized Russian assets and a return of Ukranians to Ukraine, so this never happens again.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

You don't even know what cartoonish means lol. This must be the dumbest thing I've ever bothered responding to, and I've responded to some really dumb shit before. You're still mad because I don't like your city lol.

Likewise. You bring nothing useful to the forum other than your baseless bias, and not only about São Paulo, but St. Louis, Detroit or whatever the place you know about it.

Originally Posted by badrunner

Seems rather sadistic for yuri to be crowing over the demographics of a war torn country, especially after spending most of the year actively rooting for Russia in the war (at least until facts on the ground made him look foolish).

Am I crowing over Serbia, Bulgaria or Croatia only because I posted their very disappointing Census numbers here?

In fact, these days all countries are posting poor numbers, including Brazil, posted two pages ago and the US that we discuss every day.

Originally Posted by Nite

How is he crowing?? Ukraine was in demographic collapse before the war and this will not be reversed with the end of the war.

The people who think Ukrainians will flood back to Ukraine after the war don't know what they are saying. The Ukrainians in the west have settled into their new countries for a year. they have homes and jobs where they are now making 10x to 20x what they could ever make in Ukraine. if anything, the male members who have been stuck in Ukraine will leave the country to join their families in the west after the war, not the opposite way.

The irony to me of the situation is that because Ukrainian refugees have been given the most support than any other refuges in human history the country has emptied out faster. For example, Ukrainians have not been put into refugee camps or detainment centers which is the usual cast for other refugees. All the advantages they have been given over other non-white refugees will also make it harder for them to go back to Ukraine because they have been so welcomed into their new countries.

People forget that they were already 5 millions Ukrainian nationals living abroad. They have a very strong immigration culture. We see, there is no war in Bulgaria or Croatia and their immigrants are not leaving Germany to resettle there.

Regarding racism, that's very sad. We know what kind of s... Iraqis, Afghanis and Syrians dealt with. This found solidarity with Ukraine is just a symptom of internalized racism.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Nite

Again, this is something other refugees don't get and as time goes on it will become harder for them to be expelled.

I'm not sure what you mean by other refugees don't get this treatment. Are you saying that European countries don't take in refugees?

In the unlikely situation that Russia wins and takes over all of Ukrainian territory, the refugees would likely be eligible for asylum in the countries where they fled. If Ukraine maintains its independence, there is no basis for an asylum claim.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think some of you are really not understanding how wildly different Ukraine will be on the other side of this war.

I think you are overstating Ukraine's ability to reverse 50 years of structural decline. Ukraine will still be more or less the same as it was before the war but like you said, more militarized which necessarily is not a good thing since more of their already small GDP would be tied up in defence. Ukraine and Russia for all their hostilities and deep-seated resentment have taken the same downward path since the Brezhnev era.

No one is going to write empty checks to rebuild something that wasn't really there to begin with; perhaps key infrastructure to get the economy moving again (airports, ports, bridges, etc.) but the ROI in pouring in untold billions into rebuilding Ukraine just isn't there. This isn't post war France, Germany France and Japan which were technological, industrial and economic heavyweights.