Could DFW hit a populations as high as 11-14 million?

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

Its becoming more noticeable over years. The amount of development and population between these cities are growing at a staggering rate.

Yeah, after doing some research, I see that even towns like Harrell are seeing an uptick in development.

[C.]

Texas in 2030/2040 is going to be an absolute beast in terms of metro area population and sprawl.

I would not be surprised that one day the DFW/San Antonio/Houston triangle becomes the world's next megalopolis. Lots of jobs and cheap, cheap land without any restrictions on development.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by C.

Texas in 2030/2040 is going to be an absolute beast in terms of metro area population and sprawl.

I would not be surprised that one day the DFW/San Antonio/Houston triangle becomes the world's next megalopolis. Lots of jobs and cheap, cheap land without any restrictions on development.

Cheaper than the West Coast and the northeast, sure but not "cheap". Austin is already expensive and the decent areas in Houston, Dallas and presumably San Antonio are not far behind. Things are cheap in smaller towns and metros ringing the big metros but speaking for Houston, it's no longer cheap unless you're willing to live in an area where your car is stolen.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by Dariusb

I see that even towns like Harrell are seeing an uptick in development.

That sounds like China to me. Basically, endless greenfield development.

[C.]

Originally Posted by JManc

Cheaper than the West Coast and the northeast, sure but not "cheap". Austin is already expensive and the decent areas in Houston, Dallas and presumably San Antonio are not far behind. Things are cheap in smaller towns and metros ringing the big metros but speaking for Houston, it's no longer cheap unless you're willing to live in an area where your car is stolen.

I wasn't talking about downtown Houston. I'm talking about the sprawl an hour outside of town.

\https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...28741474_zpid/

This is cheap.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by C.

I wasn't talking about downtown Houston. I'm talking about the sprawl an hour outside of town.

\https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...28741474_zpid/

This is cheap.

For what it's worth, which may be little to nothing, that house was built in 1971 when Conroe was a small town north of Houston and not yet a part of the Houston Metro sprawl.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by R1070

The Weatherford area and going into Palo Pinto County and points West is such a pretty landscape. I could see that area continuing to become more popular.

The rolling hills up near Lake Texoma are also scenic. That whole area is now part of the DFW CSA.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by BG918

The rolling hills up near Lake Texoma are also scenic. That whole area is now part of the DFW CSA.

How many cows per square mile?

[JManc]

Originally Posted by C.

I wasn't talking about downtown Houston. I'm talking about the sprawl an hour outside of town.

\https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...28741474_zpid/

This is cheap.

It's cheap because it's Conroe. And the fact that that house is pushing $300k in tells me that the area is getting pricey. This was up until very recently a rednecky poor city on the fringes of Houston.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by JManc

It's cheap because it's Conroe. And the fact that that house is pushing $300k in tells me that the area is getting pricey. This was up until very recently a rednecky poor city on the fringes of Houston.

Yep. That seems pretty pricey for a crummy little 50-year-old house 35 miles from Downtown.

[C.]

I don't know shit about Conroe, but I'm willing to bet this area and areas like it will be growing rapidly over the next 20 years if the Houston continues its population growth/economic boom. I'm not saying it's a desirable place to live now. In 20 years, it may be one of the only more affordable options. Or am I wrong?

[JManc]

Originally Posted by C.

I don't know shit about Conroe, but I'm willing to bet this area and areas like it will be growing rapidly over the next 20 years if the Houston continues its population growth/economic boom. I'm not saying it's a desirable place to live now. In 20 years, it may be one of the only more affordable options. Or am I wrong?

It's relatively affordable now but considering the area and what you get for that amount of money, it really isn't. But Conroe is exploding in population and new development plus The Woodlands (just to the south) is a major employment center which will drive up real estate prices on anything in the vicinity. That house, for instance, is not that far from TW and will probably continue to jump in value. You'd have to be a masochist to commute from Conroe in to Houston.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by JManc

It's relatively affordable now but considering the area and what you get for that amount of money, it really isn't. But Conroe is exploding in population and new development plus The Woodlands (just to the south) is a major employment center which will drive up real estate prices on anything in the vicinity. That house, for instance, is not that far from TW and will probably continue to jump in value. You'd have to be a masochist to commute from Conroe in to Houston.

I took a look at Houston Heights on Zillow and many homes there are $500K and above. I had thought that area was inexpensive...how much are property taxes on a house of $500K in Houston?

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by DCReid

I took a look at Houston Heights on Zillow and many homes there are $500K and above. I had thought that area was inexpensive...how much are property taxes on a house of $500K in Houston?

It was inexpensive, but you’re a decade or two too late for that, now.

I just looked up my old house in Montrose that is appraised by the county for tax purposes at 615K. The estimated tax is just under $11K.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

How many cows per square mile?

I’ve noticed Anna and Melissa, formerly small towns along Hwy 75, are booming with new residential neighborhoods. That whole area will be connected to Celina within the next decade.

On the Fort Worth side I was shocked to see so many new neighborhoods going up from Roanoke to Rhome. While not as far north as the Dallas exurban growth it is getting closer to 380 which will eventually be the third highway loop around DFW.

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by BG918

I’ve noticed Anna and Melissa, formerly small towns along Hwy 75, are booming with new residential neighborhoods. That whole area will be connected to Celina within the next decade.

On the Fort Worth side I was shocked to see so many new neighborhoods going up from Roanoke to Rhome. While not as far north as the Dallas exurban growth it is getting closer to 380 which will eventually be the third highway loop around DFW.

Further up from Anna and Melissa in Sherman/Denison I hear that they're starting to benefit from the growth in that area now.

[aaronevill]

Sad that Dallas is allowed to swallow the countryside with beige sprawl. An area of 14 million people with virtually no culture, beauty, or distinguishing features. There is a reason why virtually no foreign tourists visit. Sure, there are pockets of walkibiity, but on the whole it is a giant anywhereville. American failure in its most excessive form.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by aaronevill

Sad that Dallas is allowed to swallow the countryside with beige sprawl. An area of 14 million people with virtually no culture, beauty, or distinguishing features. There is a reason why virtually no foreign tourists visit. Sure, there are pockets of walkibiity, but on the whole it is a giant anywhereville. American failure in its most excessive form.

Unfortunately, seems what much of the US wants. Bigger single family houses on more land....more strip and power center malls with Costcos to follow them further out...

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by aaronevill

Sad that Dallas is allowed to swallow the countryside with beige sprawl. An area of 14 million people with virtually no culture, beauty, or distinguishing features. There is a reason why virtually no foreign tourists visit. Sure, there are pockets of walkibiity, but on the whole it is a giant anywhereville. American failure in its most excessive form.

14 million?

Anyway, it's not often that I defend Dallas, but Dallas proper has been enclosed by suburbs for decades. It's not Dallas that's sprawling, it's everything around Dallas.

[Shawn]

At what point does a region like Dallas, which is so heavily dependent on road infrastructure, start to buckle under its fractured tax environment?

What I'm getting at is, yes - Texas metros may be relatively cheap now, while they're still enjoying "rounds 1 and 2" of Federally-funded highways and developer-funded subdivision roads. But alllll those roads are expensive to maintain in aggregate, and Texas doesn't have the means to pay for incrementally-increasing maintenance, outside of stupefyingly-high local property taxes. Which are likely only to get worse, as there's no way new revenue streams for the state to pay for maintenance will be allowed by a GOP-controlled state government.

Same deal with public education: as I'm understanding it, the only source of funding for public schools in Texas is an M&O property tax levied on local taxable values. That's ridiculous. And will become unmanageable for certain municipalities attractive to middle class families.

A Dallas with 15+ million people would quite likely be a Dallas of 30+ million cars driving on aging roads and bridges, to and from aging suburbs with weak local tax bases and underfunded public schools, ringed by new-construction ex-exurbs filled with out-of-state transplants. And that assumes gas prices stay low enough to allow for continued cheap personal driving. Because if they don't, then this discussion is a nonstarter. Dallas isn't as bad a Phoenix, but new construction and the jobs associated with it make up a sizeable percentage of the regional economy. When "new growth" is no longer a leading sector, the whole economic equation is forced to change.

EDIT:

Examples in property tax disparities:
$874,750, 3,725 sq foot house in Southlake, TX (Dallas): $14,580 a year in property taxes
$1,050,000, 3,647 sq foot house in Plainville, MA (Boston): $10,152 a year in property taxes

$939,000, 3,654 sq foot house in Coppell, TX (Dallas): $14,560 a year in property taxes
$919,000, 4,175 sq foot house in Franklin, MA (Boston): $9,615 a year in property taxes