SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA: Transit/Transportation News

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by electricron

On time and on budget construction projects just do not ever exist in California anymore.
Time is money, take longer to do it always costs more.

In the grand scheme of things, a 16% cost overrun is not that much. I'm okay with this.

[numble]

Originally Posted by M II A II R II K

Twitter roasts San Jose BART extension plans: ‘Journey to the center of the Earth’

https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/05/...-of-the-earth/

The Federal Transit Administration estimates that the cost for the BART San Jose extension, with its costly deep single-bore tunneling method and extremely deep station, will cost $9.148 billion, a 32% increase from the recent $6.9 billion cost estimate, and almost double the $4.7 billion cost estimate from 3 years ago.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/10/...ose-extension/

Sharply revising the initial estimate of BART’s four-station extension into downtown San Jose, federal officials now expect the project’s price tag to balloon to as much as $9.1 billion — a figure local transportation officials refuse to endorse.

The new cost estimate from the federal government was revealed Monday in an announcement by the Federal Transit Authority that it was awarding the project with $2.3 billion or 25% of the final project cost, whichever is less.

Officials from the Valley Transportation Authority, which is building the extension that BART will operate, said Monday that there “may be cost increases from preliminary estimates” but they will not yet provide any specific figures nor corroborate the federal estimate.

When VTA first applied for the grant program in 2020, the agency requested $1.7 billion — or a quarter of the agency’s latest total project cost estimate of $6.9 billion.

The Federal Transit Authority offered to provide a much more generous grant, indicating that they felt the agency was low-balling the total cost of the six-mile extension from East San Jose to Santa Clara.

In reaching its $9.148 billion cost estimate, federal officials accounted for “additional risk and contingencies” like potential increases in the cost of supplies and labor that are subject to change given the project is so early in the design phase, according to VTA spokesperson Bernice Alaniz.

[SFBruin]

$9 billion is a lot.

I hope it turns out to be great.

[homebucket]

That sounds insane for only four stations and six miles. Anyone know how much new subway lines typically cost in other US cities?

The Central Subway cost $1.6 billion for one above-ground station and three underground stations along a 1.7 mile route.

[SFBruin]

Subway in general is very expensive. I think that the second avenue subway was over $10 billion or something like that.

[jmecklenborg]

The inflation of all materials in the last year has been insane. I do buying and pricing for a distributor and pretty much everything is up 30% or more since the beginning of 2020.

[SFBruin]

My understanding was that the main costs for subway construction were labor costs, and not material costs.

Not that it matters much. It costs what it costs.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by SFBruin

Subway in general is very expensive. I think that the second avenue subway was over $10 billion or something like that.

Per Wiki:

The proposed full line would be 8.5 miles (13.7 km) and 16 stations long, serve a projected 560,000 daily riders, and cost more than $17 billion.

...

The first phase of the line, consisting of the 96th Street, 86th Street and 72nd Street stations, as well as 1.8 mi (2.9 km) of tunnel, cost $4.45 billion. A 1.5-mile (2.4 km), $6 billion second phase from 96th to 125th Streets is in planning and is expected to open by 2027–2029.

[k1052]

America really loves deep stations no matter the absolutely insane costs and access.

[Busy Bee]

What is the simple explanation for the depth of the stations? Is there a grade requirement on the SJ extension that makes cut and cover infeasible?

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by SFBruin

My understanding was that the main costs for subway construction were labor costs, and not material costs.

Not that it matters much. It costs what it costs.

I don't know much about the labor costs, other than it is almost surely wildly inflated by consulting fees from the handful of big engineering firms like Parsons-Brinkerhoff.

Materials purchasing is something I do know about and one reason why costs are going up is because buyers are placing huge orders (like 4X) under the false pretense that they'll be moved up in the cue. This means we're showing more demand in pending purchase order than are actually needed for a given time period. It's throwing off everyone's analytics and people are raising prices wildly to keep people from placing these giant orders.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by k1052

America really loves deep stations no matter the absolutely insane costs and access.

We'll make our stations shallow when someone else puts their flag on the moon.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

What is the simple explanation for the depth of the stations? Is there a grade requirement on the SJ extension that makes cut and cover infeasible?

The large-diameter, single-bore tunneling method avoids much of the surface level impacts associated with traditional cut and cover construction.

https://www.vta.org/sites/default/fi...prefinal_a.pdf

[Busy Bee]

^^^

If there's ever been a moment to use the expression "but at what cost?" it would be now. Is the kowtowing to "community concerns" and avoiding the temporary disruption of surface streets really worth the added expense of atomic fallout safe subway stations? Would BART have been built this way 40 years ago even if the wide bore tunneling tech was available? I'm an advocate of massive public transportation expansion and even I identify this may very well be over-engineered.

[SFBruin]

I mean, it's their money, so I guess they get to do whatever they want.

But I agree, there are tons of situations in which subway makes sense, and yet it doesn't get built because it is too expensive.

Geary Boulevard in San Francisco comes to mind. Same with Seattle Belltown.

[Busy Bee]

I'm not really saying subway vs. no subway... I'm more curious why the deep bore method was chosen over the likely less expensive cut and cover method ala Market St.

Don't get me going on Geary. It'll happen eventually.

[k1052]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

I'm not really saying subway vs. no subway... I'm more curious why the deep bore method was chosen over the likely less expensive cut and cover method ala Market St.

Don't get me going on Geary. It'll happen eventually.

People are going to complain if they used cut and cover plus apparently we're so so bad at utility relocation we've decided just avoid them altogether.

[TWAK]

There's an old at grade abandoned rail line that goes into San Jose, but I guess they are gonna have it be tunnel before Highway 101? That's the ROW that they seemed to have been using. Being BART too makes it more expensive, as it might not be as much to do a standard-gauge tunnel.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by k1052

so bad at utility relocation we've decided just avoid them altogether.

That's probably why our stations are so deep, no?

[Pedestrian]

Feds Commit to More Than $2B for Share of BART Extension Through Downtown San Jose
By Silicon Valley Newsroom / October 26, 2021 5

The Valley Transportation Authority announced it has received a letter from the Federal Transit Administration announcing the BART extension through downtown San Jose was formally selected for expedited funding of more than $2 billion.

The project funding plan includes 25% of the costs to be funded with federal grants and the remaining 75% from state and local sources.

BART's Phase II Project, which includes four stations, a maintenance facility, and five miles of subway tunnel, will extend BART service from the newly opened Berryessa Station in northeast San Jose through downtown San Jose into the City of Santa Clara. Passenger service is planned to begin in 2030.

The letter of intent announced Oct. 25 affirms announces the federal government’s intention to obligate federal funds for the project, according to the VTA. This step is the precursor to the actual funding . . . .

This step gives VTA the authority to incur costs for advancing engineering activities, utility relocation, real estate acquisition, construction, and other non-construction activities such as the procurement of vehicles. This milestone also defines the confidence the U.S. Department of Transportation has in VTA’s technical capacity and capability to effectively manage the Phase II Project.

VTA said it will proceed with contract advertisements and awards, including the largest procurement, the tunnel contract which includes the design and construction of the subway through downtown San Jose with a large-diameter tunnel boring machine . . . .

VTA’s funding plan, developed in 2020 and submitted to federal transportation officials, included an expedited funding request of $1.735 billion based on a $6.9 billion eligible budget, and this could increase as construction materials increase in cost in future years.

Federal transportation officials intend to obligate up to $2.287 billion or 25 percent of the final project cost, whichever is less.

The letter will be in effect for two years, and during that time VTA will continue to advance design, receive actual contractor bids, identify and mitigate or eliminate perceived risks, finalize an overall cost estimate, and solidify the funding plan to ultimately achieve full funding.

https://www.sanjoseinside.com/news/f...town-san-jose/