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  #21  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 6:26 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
... but that's got nothing to do with the fact it's almost certainly going to be successful.
I've been in commercial real estate way too long to believe such things. Even if it gets built, malls and "attractions" underperform all the time. Even successes can be very short-lived.

Now add the fact that retail is cratering overall. And the better sectors of retail today can be their own craters tomorrow.
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  #22  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 6:42 PM
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
I've been in commercial real estate way too long to believe such things. Even if it gets built, malls and "attractions" underperform all the time. Even successes can be very short-lived.

Now add the fact that retail is cratering overall. And the better sectors of retail today can be their own craters tomorrow.
True. But do you know how much $ Brazilians drop on clotting, shoes, electronics, etc. at Florida stores? Brazilian tour groups go to Miami just to shop and they return with suitcases full of new stuff that is prohibitively expensive to buy in Brazil. And how much they visit and spend at Orlando theme parks? It’s insane. And that’s just the Brazilian tourists.
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  #23  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 6:49 PM
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Perhaps they should include condos too to spread out their bets.
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  #24  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 7:33 PM
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True. But do you know how much $ Brazilians drop on clotting, shoes, electronics, etc. at Florida stores? Brazilian tour groups go to Miami just to shop and they return with suitcases full of new stuff that is prohibitively expensive to buy in Brazil. And how much they visit and spend at Orlando theme parks? It’s insane. And that’s just the Brazilian tourists.
It's the same thing in NY-NJ. The Jersey Gardens outlet mall basically exists for tourists filling suitcases full of cheap consumer goods. There are masses of tour buses that go out from Manhattan and the airports to Jersey Gardens, Woodbury Commons and other regional outlets.

And everyone claims that retail is dead, yet top commercial streets and shopping malls have never been more successful. Just off the top of my head, in addition to this project, there's a new urban mall in Norwalk, CT anchored by Bloomingdales and Nordstrom, there are new Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus flagships in Manhattan (alongside a 1 million square foot retail center in Hudson Yards), Kings Plaza in Brooklyn has basically been completely rebuilt with new anchors, and there's a large outdoor mall planned for Syosset (LI).

Second tier malls and lower-end malls are dying, but first-tier retail is thriving.
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  #25  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 8:08 PM
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
I've been in commercial real estate way too long to believe such things. Even if it gets built, malls and "attractions" underperform all the time. Even successes can be very short-lived.

Now add the fact that retail is cratering overall. And the better sectors of retail today can be their own craters tomorrow.
I've been in commercial real estate for nearly 15 years now, and theme parks are an entirely different thing from offering brick-and-mortar retail space to businesses as a landlord.

The fact that retail is cratering has no bearing on amusement parks, which this, from what I can see, is. An amusement park to take your kids to, where you can also happen to do a bit of shopping on the side if you want.
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  #26  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 9:10 PM
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To me, if anything, this is a new attraction, which will provide amenities to Miami. Either you have the option of visiting a theme park/mall in Miami or you don’t and if you have the opportunity at getting that option, you should jump at it. My only negative connotation is that they need to be careful with the traffic impact and plan for it.
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  #27  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 10:48 PM
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Say what you want, but the waterpark looks fun. People will definitely go to this. Leave the kids at the amusement/water park while the adults shop around.
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  #28  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 11:11 PM
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What is this, 1995? That will make for quite the hellscape after it is abandoned when Miami begins to be swallowed by the seas.
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  #29  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 11:37 PM
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What is this, 1995? That will make for quite the hellscape after it is abandoned when Miami begins to be swallowed by the seas.
Two words: Bilge pumps
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  #30  
Old Posted May 12, 2018, 11:54 PM
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To build such a large new mall today is kinda impressive. Due the closure of department stores (most recently, Zellers/Target), a lot of malls in around me are dying, being replaced by power centres, which are 100x worse.
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  #31  
Old Posted May 13, 2018, 12:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Ant131531 View Post
Say what you want, but the waterpark looks fun. People will definitely go to this. Leave the kids at the amusement/water park while the adults shop around.
An indoor waterpark in Miami of all places makes zero sense, why would anybody go to this?

Your kids can be in the ocean while you shop in south beach instead. I don't even see kids being left in the water without parents in any case anyway.
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  #32  
Old Posted May 13, 2018, 3:29 AM
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Get rid of the "mall" references, and consider this a water park with retail. Genius! (or Genius?)
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  #33  
Old Posted May 13, 2018, 4:57 AM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I've been in commercial real estate for nearly 15 years now, and theme parks are an entirely different thing from offering brick-and-mortar retail space to businesses as a landlord.

The fact that retail is cratering has no bearing on amusement parks, which this, from what I can see, is. An amusement park to take your kids to, where you can also happen to do a bit of shopping on the side if you want.
Then you know it's at risk to both the entertainment side and the retail side. Nothing I said is controversial.
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  #34  
Old Posted May 13, 2018, 5:01 AM
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True. But do you know how much $ Brazilians drop on clotting, shoes, electronics, etc. at Florida stores? Brazilian tour groups go to Miami just to shop and they return with suitcases full of new stuff that is prohibitively expensive to buy in Brazil. And how much they visit and spend at Orlando theme parks? It’s insane. And that’s just the Brazilian tourists.
Your logic isn't logical. None of this suggests your factor is permanent. And none of this suggest enough of this will transfer to the mall from wherever it is now.
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  #35  
Old Posted May 13, 2018, 6:16 PM
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Nordstrom and Neiman-Marcus are both facing huge financial problems. Some form of BK is probably on the horizon for Neiman's. It will be very interesting to see whether Neiman's and Nordstrom's will be able to jump start a brand new shopping district in the Hudson Yard development. Is Manhattan really like Tokyo in that regard, able to support multiple high end shopping nodes in the era of online shopping, especially with so many savvy shoppers looking for designer bargains online. I tried to make some sense of the NYT article linked below, but I could not figure out whether Nordstrom does actually plan to go ahead with a Hudson Yard store. The somewhat downsized Neiman's store has been delayed until a 2019 opening date.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/08/b...ork-store.html

Last edited by austlar1; May 14, 2018 at 12:20 AM.
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  #36  
Old Posted May 13, 2018, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I've been in commercial real estate for nearly 15 years now, and theme parks are an entirely different thing from offering brick-and-mortar retail space to businesses as a landlord.
It's a mall. The revenue comes from stores. The amusement park features is the attraction (marketing/ the draw) . It has also taken $800 million in corporate welfare to the American Dream Mall off the ground. I expect these guys will be seeking similar arrangements in Miami Dade as well.
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  #37  
Old Posted May 14, 2018, 12:01 AM
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Originally Posted by austlar1 View Post
Nordstrom and Neiman-Marcus are both facing huge financial problems. Some form of BK is probably on the horizon for Neiman's. It will be very interesting to see whether Neiman's and Nordstrom's will be able to jump start a brand new shopping district in the Hudson Yard development. Is Manhattan really like Tokyo in that regard, able to support multiple high end shopping nodes in the era of online shopping, especially with so many savvy shoppers looking for designer bargains online. I tried to make some sense of the NYT article linked below, but I could not figure out whether Nordstrom does actually plan to go ahead with a Hudson Yard store. The Neiman's store has been delayed until a 2019 opening date.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/08/b...ork-store.html
Nordstrom's Manhattan flagship is already partially open. The men's store is operating, the women's store opens next year. But it's on 57th Street, not Hudson Yards. It's already the highest grossing Nordstrom.

NM's Manhattan flagship is part of Hudson Yards, and it will open in 2019, alongside all the other retail.

Manhattan shopping, while not immune to online retail, is heavily dependent on international visitors. There are different operating assumptions than your typical U.S. department store. Alongside Miami, Honolulu, and maybe LA/OC, a huge proportion of retail spending is by non-locals.
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  #38  
Old Posted May 14, 2018, 12:17 AM
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Nordstrom's Manhattan flagship is already partially open. The men's store is operating, the women's store opens next year. But it's on 57th Street, not Hudson Yards. It's already the highest grossing Nordstrom.

NM's Manhattan flagship is part of Hudson Yards, and it will open in 2019, alongside all the other retail.

Manhattan shopping, while not immune to online retail, is heavily dependent on international visitors. There are different operating assumptions than your typical U.S. department store. Alongside Miami, Honolulu, and maybe LA/OC, a huge proportion of retail spending is by non-locals.
The men's store has been open for one month. It is a little early to make big statements about the numbers. I am sure that a ton of people will shop or visit there in the next few months, but then it is all about developing a loyal customer base. Do you know whether Nordstrom still plans to open a smaller store in the Hudson Yard development? The NYT article makes it seem like they decided to go with 57th Street for the present time.
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  #39  
Old Posted May 14, 2018, 12:22 AM
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Do you know whether Nordstrom still plans to open a smaller store in the Hudson Yard development? The NYT article makes it seem like they decided to go with 57th Street for the present time.
Nordstrom never had plans for HY. They were always planning on 57th.

There have been repeated rumors that Nordstrom is also looking to open in Lower Manhattan, around the WTC, but so far nothing official. NY Post reported that they were considering One Wall Street, but that retail space was eventually leased by Whole Foods.
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  #40  
Old Posted May 14, 2018, 1:50 PM
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
Your logic isn't logical. None of this suggests your factor is permanent. And none of this suggest enough of this will transfer to the mall from wherever it is now.
I wasn't countering your position (hence the "True").

Bringing up the fact that Brazilians/South Americans drop an insane amount of cash at retail outlets and amusement parks in Florida is just something to consider in trying to figure out why the hell they would build this thing, given the current state of retail, perpetual underperformance, and time horizon issues that you mentioned.

I wasn't suggesting this is a permanent situation or that the mall would pull enough business from existing shopping/attractions. I have no idea. But it sounds like they are building it... and I can't imagine they would undertake something of this ridiculous magnitude -- particularly with the current state of retail -- without some sort of assurance that they're going to see acceptable returns.
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